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White demographic decline is a decrease in the
White White is the lightest color and is achromatic (having no hue). It is the color of objects such as snow, chalk, and milk, and is the opposite of black. White objects fully reflect and scatter all the visible wavelengths of light. White on ...
populace as a percentage of the total population in a city, state, subregion, or nation. It has been recorded in a number of countries and smaller jurisdictions. For example, according to their national censuses,
White Americans White Americans are Americans who identify as and are perceived to be white people. This group constitutes the majority of the people in the United States. As of the 2020 Census, 61.6%, or 204,277,273 people, were white alone. This represented ...
,
White Canadians European Canadians, or Euro-Canadians, are Canadians who were either born in or can trace their ancestry to the continent of Europe. They form the largest panethnic group within Canada. In the 2021 Canadian census, 19,062,115 Canadians self ...
,
White Latin Americans White Latin Americans, or European Latin Americans, are Latin Americans who are considered white, typically due to European descent. Latin American countries have often tolerated intermarriage between different ethnic groups since the beginning ...
, and
White people in the United Kingdom White people in the United Kingdom are a multi-ethnic group of UK residents who identify as and are perceived to be white people. White people constitute the historical and current majority of the people living in the United Kingdom, with 87.2% ...
are in demographic decline in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the United Kingdom, respectively. Scholars have attempted to address subfactors and anticipated results of White demographic decline in relevant societies. The term
majority minority A majority-minority or minority-majority area is a term used to refer to a administrative division, subdivision in which one or more minority group, racial, ethnic, and/or religious minorities (relative to the whole country's population) make up a ...
has been used to designate an area where a decline, of what are nationally defined as Whites, has resulted in a former majority becoming a minority. Examples of this include parts of the
United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territorie ...
and
Brazil Brazil ( pt, Brasil; ), officially the Federative Republic of Brazil (Portuguese: ), is the largest country in both South America and Latin America. At and with over 217 million people, Brazil is the world's fifth-largest country by area ...
. Other notable concepts include demographer
Eric Kaufmann Eric Peter Kaufmann is a Canadian professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London. He is a specialist on Orangeism in Northern Ireland, nationalism, and political and religious demography. He has authored, co-authored, and edited multiple ...
's theory of "Whiteshift", which predicts transforming classifications of Whiteness as mixed-race majorities emerge, and social psychologist Jennifer Richeson's research into racial shift conditions, which outline how White people's hostility to other racial groups increases in proportion to their awareness of a drop in White population share. Experts in extremism and terrorism have shown national demography in relation to white people to be subject to exploitation by both radical and political right-wing groups, including adherence to
conspiracy theories A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful groups, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources: * * * * The term has a nega ...
. This has also manifested as
anti-abortion Anti-abortion movements, also self-styled as pro-life or abolitionist movements, are involved in the abortion debate advocating against the practice of abortion and its legality. Many anti-abortion movements began as countermovements in respons ...
, and
anti-immigrant Opposition to immigration, also known as anti-immigration, has become a significant political ideology in many countries. In the modern sense, immigration refers to the entry of people from one state or territory into another state or territory ...
sentiment despite academic evidence that immigration significantly contributes to the maintenance of economies, civic institutions, and population-levels of places affected by White demographic decline, such as in the
Southern United States The Southern United States (sometimes Dixie, also referred to as the Southern States, the American South, the Southland, or simply the South) is a geographic and cultural region of the United States of America. It is between the Atlantic Ocean ...
.


Overview


Definition

White demographic decline has been statistically observed by academics in relation to countries which conduct a national census and include a white racial or ethnic category. Notable experts and scholars of a multitude of fields of study have observed the demographic phenomenon of falling white demography. These include anthropologists Leo Chavez,
Arizona State University Arizona State University (Arizona State or ASU) is a public research university in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Founded in 1885 by the 13th Arizona Territorial Legislature, ASU is one of the largest public universities by enrollment in the ...
's Luis Plascencia,
Rich Benjamin Rich Benjamin is an American cultural critic, anthropologist, and author. Benjamin is perhaps best known for the non-fiction book '' Searching for Whitopia: An Improbable Journey to the Heart of White America''. He is also a lecturer and a publ ...
, and
University of Louisville The University of Louisville (UofL) is a public research university in Louisville, Kentucky. It is part of the Kentucky state university system. When founded in 1798, it was the first city-owned public university in the United States and one of ...
's Steven Gardiner. Demographers such as William H. Frey,
Eric Kaufmann Eric Peter Kaufmann is a Canadian professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London. He is a specialist on Orangeism in Northern Ireland, nationalism, and political and religious demography. He has authored, co-authored, and edited multiple ...
, Rogelio Sáenz,
Dudley L. Poston Jr. Dudley L. Poston Jr. is an American academic whose areas of study include Demography, Human Ecology, and Sociology. Early and personal life Dudley L. Poston Jr. was born in San Francisco, California on 29 November 1940 to Dudley Louis Poston, ...
,
Ann Morning Ann Juanita Morning is an American sociologist and demographer whose research focuses on race. In particular, she has studied racial and ethnic classification on censuses worldwide, as well as beliefs about racial difference in the United States ...
, and
David Coleman David Robert Coleman OBE (26 April 1926 – 21 December 2013) was a British sports commentator and television presenter who worked for the BBC for 46 years. He covered eleven Summer Olympic Games from 1960 to 2000 and six FIFA World Cups from ...
. Social geographers such as
Loughborough University Loughborough University (abbreviated as ''Lough'' or ''Lboro'' for post-nominals) is a public research university in the market town of Loughborough, Leicestershire, England. It has been a university since 1966, but it dates back to 1909, when L ...
's Marco Antonsich, and
Syracuse University Syracuse University (informally 'Cuse or SU) is a Private university, private research university in Syracuse, New York. Established in 1870 with roots in the Methodist Episcopal Church, the university has been nonsectarian since 1920. Locate ...
's Jamie Winders, and political scientists Elliot Jager, and
Robert Pape Robert Anthony Pape Jr. (born April 24, 1960) is an American political scientist who studies national and international security affairs, with a focus on air power, American and international political violence, social media propaganda, and t ...
, have studied white demographic decline as a measurable and observable process. Historians
Trevor Burnard Trevor Graeme Burnard (born 15 October 1961) is professor of history at the University of Hull. He is a specialist in the history of slavery in the Atlantic world. He was formerly at the University of Warwick. and the University of Melbourne ...
, and
Mark Sedgwick Mark J. Sedgwick (born 20 July 1960) is a British historian specialising in the study of traditionalism, Islam, Sufi mysticism, and terrorism. He is Professor of Arab and Islamic Studies at Aarhus University in Denmark and chair of the Nordic S ...
have published works defining the demographic process in various jurisdictions. While they suggest that the white population share is falling in the United States, sociologist
Richard Alba Richard D. Alba (born December 22, 1942) is an American sociologist, who is a Distinguished Professor at the Graduate Center, CUNY. He is known for developing assimilation theory to fit the contemporary, multi-racial era of immigration, with stud ...
and demographer
Dowell Myers __NOTOC__ Dowell Myers is a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning, and Development, at the University of Southern California (USC). He directs the school's Population Dynamics Research Group, whose recent proje ...
have stated that this decline is divisive and exaggerated somewhat by the census format. Nonetheless, many academics, such as
Nicholas Lemann Nicholas Berthelot Lemann is an American writer and academic, the Joseph Pulitzer II and Edith Pulitzer Moore Professor of Journalism and Dean Emeritus of the Faculty of Journalism at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He has be ...
, suggest the decline will affect national election results in the US.


Demography in national censuses

Various national demographic analyses measured a demographic decline of white populations, as defined by their local nation-based censuses. Research conducted at the
University of Minnesota The University of Minnesota, formally the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, (UMN Twin Cities, the U of M, or Minnesota) is a public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university in the Minneapolis–Saint Paul, Tw ...
has observed the phenomenon of a decrease in white population share within jurisdictions in
Europe Europe is a large peninsula conventionally considered a continent in its own right because of its great physical size and the weight of its history and traditions. Europe is also considered a Continent#Subcontinents, subcontinent of Eurasia ...
,
North America North America is a continent in the Northern Hemisphere and almost entirely within the Western Hemisphere. It is bordered to the north by the Arctic Ocean, to the east by the Atlantic Ocean, to the southeast by South America and the Car ...
and
Oceania Oceania (, , ) is a region, geographical region that includes Australasia, Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. Spanning the Eastern Hemisphere, Eastern and Western Hemisphere, Western hemispheres, Oceania is estimated to have a land area of ...
:
According to the most recent U.S. census, the non-Hispanic White population is shrinking (
US Census Bureau The United States Census Bureau (USCB), officially the Bureau of the Census, is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System, responsible for producing data about the American people and economy. The Census Bureau is part of the ...
, 2018). This trend has been observed in other White-majority countries including Canada (
Statistics Canada Statistics Canada (StatCan; french: Statistique Canada), formed in 1971, is the agency of the Government of Canada commissioned with producing statistics to help better understand Canada, its population, resources, economy, society, and cultur ...
, 2017), the UK ( Coleman, 2016), and New Zealand (
Stats New Zealand Statistics New Zealand ( mi, Tatauranga Aotearoa), branded as Stats NZ, is the public service department of New Zealand charged with the collection of statistics related to the economy, population and society of New Zealand. To this end, Stats ...
, 2004).
Regarding white populations internationally, and particularly in the
Western world The Western world, also known as the West, primarily refers to the various nations and state (polity), states in the regions of Europe, North America, and Oceania.
, demographer Eric Kaufmann has suggested that "In an era of unprecedented white demographic decline it is absolutely vital for it to have a democratic outlet." While sociologist
Richard Alba Richard D. Alba (born December 22, 1942) is an American sociologist, who is a Distinguished Professor at the Graduate Center, CUNY. He is known for developing assimilation theory to fit the contemporary, multi-racial era of immigration, with stud ...
believes this decline is exaggerated by the racial classification system used in the United States Census, regarding the 2020 census, demographer William H. Frey has written:
The Census Bureau was not projecting white population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any national population growth even more reliant on other race and ethnic groups. The white demographic decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups. This leads to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size.


Statistical terms


Majority minority

As well as referencing ethno-cultural, linguistic, and religious demography, the term 'majority minority' has consistently been used in racial contexts in media and academia, and specifically to identify the demographic decline of white populations. In 2010, it was reported by the
BBC #REDIRECT BBC #REDIRECT BBC Here i going to introduce about the best teacher of my life b BALAJI sir. He is the precious gift that I got befor 2yrs . How has helped and thought all the concept and made my success in the 10th board exam. ...
...
how "America's two largest states -
California California is a U.S. state, state in the Western United States, located along the West Coast of the United States, Pacific Coast. With nearly 39.2million residents across a total area of approximately , it is the List of states and territori ...
and Texas - became "majority-minority" states (with an overall minority population outnumbering the white majority)" between 1998 and 2004. Demographers Rogelio Sáenz and
Dudley L. Poston Jr. Dudley L. Poston Jr. is an American academic whose areas of study include Demography, Human Ecology, and Sociology. Early and personal life Dudley L. Poston Jr. was born in San Francisco, California on 29 November 1940 to Dudley Louis Poston, ...
have studied existing states which have gained white minorities in the 21st century, and how, from 2017 onwards, an ongoing falling white population-share predicts further US states to follow this trend: "nonwhites account for more than half of the populations of
Hawaii Hawaii ( ; haw, Hawaii or ) is a state in the Western United States, located in the Pacific Ocean about from the U.S. mainland. It is the only U.S. state outside North America, the only state that is an archipelago, and the only stat ...
, the
District of Columbia ) , image_skyline = , image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...
, California,
New Mexico ) , population_demonym = New Mexican ( es, Neomexicano, Neomejicano, Nuevo Mexicano) , seat = Santa Fe , LargestCity = Albuquerque , LargestMetro = Tiguex , OfficialLang = None , Languages = English, Spanish ( New Mexican), Navajo, Ker ...
, Texas and
Nevada Nevada ( ; ) is a U.S. state, state in the Western United States, Western region of the United States. It is bordered by Oregon to the northwest, Idaho to the northeast, California to the west, Arizona to the southeast, and Utah to the east. N ...
. In the next 10 to 15 years, these half-dozen 'majority-minority' states will likely be joined by as many as eight other states where whites now make up less than 60 percent of the population." From their research, Sáenz and Poston Jr expect the United States to have progressed to overall white minority demography by 2044. Regarding various projected majority minority scenarios across the
Western world The Western world, also known as the West, primarily refers to the various nations and state (polity), states in the regions of Europe, North America, and Oceania.
, in a 2018 article for the
London School of Economics , mottoeng = To understand the causes of things , established = , type = Public research university , endowment = £240.8 million (2021) , budget = £391.1 millio ...
, academics Eric Kaufmann and
Matthew Goodwin Matthew James Goodwin (born 17 December 1981) is a British academic who is Professor of Politics in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent. he is a commisioner of the Social Mobility Commission. Early life ...
wrote:
The ethnic make-up of many western countries is changing, and in countries previously seen as having '
white White is the lightest color and is achromatic (having no hue). It is the color of objects such as snow, chalk, and milk, and is the opposite of black. White objects fully reflect and scatter all the visible wavelengths of light. White on ...
' majorities that past predominance is declining. In the United States, Canada and New Zealand, the 'majority-minority' point will arrive around 2050, while in
western Europe Western Europe is the western region of Europe. The region's countries and territories vary depending on context. The concept of "the West" appeared in Europe in juxtaposition to "the East" and originally applied to the ancient Mediterranean ...
it is projected to occur towards the end of the century. Some commentators have asked if this change may lead to a growing reaction or '
white backlash White backlash, also known as white rage, is related to the politics of white grievance, and is the negative response of some white people to the racial progress of other ethnic groups in rights and economic opportunities, as well as their grow ...
'. All else being equal, we suggest that the answer may be yes.
An example from the
developing world A developing country is a sovereign state with a lesser developed industrial base and a lower Human Development Index (HDI) relative to other countries. However, this definition is not universally agreed upon. There is also no clear agreem ...
includes Brazil which, due to a long-term demographic decline of
white Brazilians White Brazilians ( pt, brasileiros brancos ) refers to Brazilians, Brazilian citizens who are considered or self-identify as "white", typically because of Ethnic groups in Europe, European or Levant, Levantine descent. The main ancestry of curre ...
, has been designated as a majority-minority country in relation to the South American nation's racial classification of whiteness.


Racial shift condition

In their widely cited research, professors Jennifer Richeson and Maureen Craig produced a 2014 study on white racial shift conditions. White people who were informed of their diminishing demographic share of the population displayed more racial hostility to perceived external racial groups. ''
Pacific Standard ''Pacific Standard'' was an American online magazine that reported on issues of social and environmental justice. Founded in 2008, the magazine was published in print and online for its first ten years until production of the print edition cease ...
'' described the research as how "the coming racial shift evokes higher levels of both explicit and implicit racism on the part of
white Americans White Americans are Americans who identify as and are perceived to be white people. This group constitutes the majority of the people in the United States. As of the 2020 Census, 61.6%, or 204,277,273 people, were white alone. This represented ...
". In analysis of the study, sociologist Mary C. Waters concurred that the portrayal in media of falling white demography was linked with subsequent discrimination against non-whites.


Whiteshift

Demographer Eric Kaufmann's theory of whiteshift predicts that as white demographic decline gradually results in white majorities becoming minorities (sometimes called a majority minority scenario) that a broader and more inclusive classification of white people will occur. A professor of politics at
Birkbeck College Birkbeck, University of London (formally Birkbeck College, University of London), is a public university, public research university, located in Bloomsbury, London, England, and a constituent college, member institution of the federal Universit ...
, he suggests that, given the appropriate societal conditions, both
conservatives Conservatism is a cultural, social, and political philosophy that seeks to promote and to preserve traditional institutions, practices, and values. The central tenets of conservatism may vary in relation to the culture and civilization in ...
and cosmopolitans may be able to observe whiteshift as a positive factor. In this regard, political analyst Michael Barone believes there may be "cautious optimism" that the
social phenomenon Social phenomena or social phenomenon (singular) are any behaviours, actions, or events that takes place because of social influence, including from contemporary as well as historical societal influences. They are often a result of multifaceted pr ...
can progress in a politically stable form. Analysing Kaufmann's thesis, historian
Michael Burleigh Michael Burleigh (born 3 April 1955) is an English author and historian whose primary focus is on Nazi Germany and related subjects. He has also been active in bringing history to television. Early life Michael Burleigh was born on 3 April 1955. ...
has used examples of whiteshift such as Western politicians
Iain Duncan Smith Sir George Iain Duncan Smith (born George Ian Duncan Smith; 9 April 1954), often referred to by his initials IDS, is a British politician who served as Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from 2001 to 2003. He was S ...
,
Geert Wilders Geert Wilders (; born 6 September 1963) is a Dutch politician who has led the Party for Freedom (''Partij voor de Vrijheid'' – PVV) since he founded it in 2006. He is also the party's leader in the House of Representatives (''Tweede Kamer'' ...
and
Ted Cruz Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz (; born December 22, 1970) is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States Senator from Texas since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, Cruz served as Solicitor General of Texas from ...
, who have some degree of what might be considered non-white or
ethnic minority The term 'minority group' has different usages depending on the context. According to its common usage, a minority group can simply be understood in terms of demographic sizes within a population: i.e. a group in society with the least number o ...
ancestry in their respective countries. Demographer
Dowell Myers __NOTOC__ Dowell Myers is a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning, and Development, at the University of Southern California (USC). He directs the school's Population Dynamics Research Group, whose recent proje ...
has also referenced Cruz and Megan Markle as examples, claiming that "whites are indeed in numerical decline" in the United States, when judged upon a criterion of exclusively European ancestry.


Demography by regions


Europe


United Kingdom

In 2013,
Demos Demos may refer to: Computing * DEMOS, a Soviet Unix-like operating system * DEMOS (ISP), the first internet service provider in the USSR * Demos Commander, an Orthodox File Manager for Unix-like systems * plural for Demo (computer programming) ...
published research analyzing the
2011 United Kingdom census A census of the population of the United Kingdom is taken every ten years. The 2011 census was held in all countries of the UK on 27 March 2011. It was the first UK census which could be completed online via the Internet. The Office for National ...
. The UK-based think tank detailed how "departing White British are replaced by immigration or by the natural growth of the minority population. Over time, the end result of this process is a spiral of White British demographic decline". Academic
David Coleman David Robert Coleman OBE (26 April 1926 – 21 December 2013) was a British sports commentator and television presenter who worked for the BBC for 46 years. He covered eleven Summer Olympic Games from 1960 to 2000 and six FIFA World Cups from ...
has produced research which demonstrates that the cities of
Leicester Leicester ( ) is a city status in the United Kingdom, city, Unitary authorities of England, unitary authority and the county town of Leicestershire in the East Midlands of England. It is the largest settlement in the East Midlands. The city l ...
and
Birmingham Birmingham ( ) is a city and metropolitan borough in the metropolitan county of West Midlands in England. It is the second-largest city in the United Kingdom with a population of 1.145 million in the city proper, 2.92 million in the West ...
will join
London London is the capital and largest city of England and the United Kingdom, with a population of just under 9 million. It stands on the River Thames in south-east England at the head of a estuary down to the North Sea, and has been a majo ...
in their majority minority status during the 2020s, with regards to the demographic decline of White people in Britain. Coleman, a
University of Oxford , mottoeng = The Lord is my light , established = , endowment = £6.1 billion (including colleges) (2019) , budget = £2.145 billion (2019–20) , chancellor ...
demography professor since 1980, estimates that by 2056, the trend of a declining share of the white populace will result in the United Kingdom having an overall white minority.


North America


Canada

In 2018, scholars Eric Kaufmann and Matthew Goodwin wrote that the demographic process would result in
White Canadians European Canadians, or Euro-Canadians, are Canadians who were either born in or can trace their ancestry to the continent of Europe. They form the largest panethnic group within Canada. In the 2021 Canadian census, 19,062,115 Canadians self ...
being in the minority by around 2050.


United States

While under 18 non-Hispanic White Americans in the US. are already a minority as of 2020, it is projected that
non-Hispanic Whites Non-Hispanic whites or Non-Latino whites are Americans who are classified as "white", and are not of Hispanic (also known as "Latino") heritage. The United States Census Bureau defines ''white'' to include European Americans, Middle Eastern Amer ...
overall will become a minority within the US by 2045.


Political impact

The
political right Right-wing politics describes the range of political ideologies that view certain social orders and hierarchies as inevitable, natural, normal, or desirable, typically supporting this position on the basis of natural law, economics, auth ...
has been reported to be most inclined to reference white demographic decline in a political context, with 2022 communication-research outlining how fears of white-related demography are often weaponised. Max Hui Bai, a scholar working within
Stanford University Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. The campus occupies , among the largest in the United States, and enrolls over 17,000 students. Stanford is consider ...
's Polarization and Social Change Lab, has explored "how people react to the numerical decline of white populations" across the Western world. Sociologist and demographer
Ann Morning Ann Juanita Morning is an American sociologist and demographer whose research focuses on race. In particular, she has studied racial and ethnic classification on censuses worldwide, as well as beliefs about racial difference in the United States ...
has suggested that representations of female multiraciality have been used in media to show evidence of "racial progress" and "bridging racial divides", while also providing a function which "serves to soften the blow of White demographic decline". Professor
Trevor Burnard Trevor Graeme Burnard (born 15 October 1961) is professor of history at the University of Hull. He is a specialist in the history of slavery in the Atlantic world. He was formerly at the University of Warwick. and the University of Melbourne ...
has discussed how "white demographic decline" occurred in the population of the
colony of Jamaica The Crown Colony of Jamaica and Dependencies was a British colony from 1655, when it was captured by the English Protectorate from the Spanish Empire. Jamaica became a British colony from 1707 and a Crown colony in 1866. The Colony was pri ...
between 1655 and 1780, stating that his research "presents hard data on white mortality in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Jamaica" and its political implications. In modern times, journalist
Sabrina Tavernise Sabrina Tavernise (born February 24, 1971) is an American journalist who writes for ''The New York Times'', and is a co-host of the ''Times'' podcast '' The Daily''. She has been a war correspondent for the ''Times'' from Iraq, Lebanon, and Russi ...
has reported that since the 2020 US Census, regarding white demography, social scientists have pointed out that the "declining share of white people as a part of the population has become a part of American politics — as a worry on the right and a cause for optimism on the left."


Africa


South Africa

Scholars Hermann Giliomee and Lawrence Schlemmer have credited, among other factors, international pressure on the apartheid government and "a white demographic decline" for facilitating the process of
negotiations to end apartheid in South Africa The apartheid system in South Africa was ended through a series of bilateral and multi-party negotiations between 1990 and 1993. The negotiations culminated in the passage of a new interim Constitution in 1993, a precursor to the Constitution ...
.


Europe

Adela Fofiu of
Babeș-Bolyai University The Babeș-Bolyai University ( ro, Universitatea Babeș-Bolyai , hu, Babeș-Bolyai Tudományegyetem, commonly known as UBB) is a public research university located in Cluj-Napoca, Romania. UBB has a long academic tradition, started by Universitas ...
has noted how right-wing organizations and outlets in
Romania Romania ( ; ro, România ) is a country located at the crossroads of Central Europe, Central, Eastern Europe, Eastern, and Southeast Europe, Southeastern Europe. It borders Bulgaria to the south, Ukraine to the north, Hungary to the west, S ...
politicize white demographic decline, attempting to associate it with concepts such as the "
Islamization Islamization, Islamicization, or Islamification ( ar, أسلمة, translit=aslamāh), refers to the process through which a society shifts towards the religion of Islam and becomes largely Muslim. Societal Islamization has historically occur ...
of Europe" or "Gypsifcation" of the country, the latter of which refers to the
Romani people in Romania Romani people (Roma; Romi, traditionally '' Țigani'', (often called "Gypsies" though this term is considered a slur) constitute one of Romania's largest minorities. According to the 2011 census, their number was 621.573 people or 3.3% of the ...
. In 2018 analysis, the
Southern Poverty Law Center The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) is an American 501(c)(3) nonprofit legal advocacy organization specializing in civil rights and public interest litigation. Based in Montgomery, Alabama, it is known for its legal cases against white su ...
explored how right-wing extremism in Europe attempts to utilize the continents demographic decline and the rise of immigration from Arab and or Middle Eastern countries for political gain. A professor at
Loughborough University Loughborough University (abbreviated as ''Lough'' or ''Lboro'' for post-nominals) is a public research university in the market town of Loughborough, Leicestershire, England. It has been a university since 1966, but it dates back to 1909, when L ...
, Marco Antonsich's research in Italy suggests that "demographic change and the decline of white majorities" provides space for immigrant communities to" justify their national belonging and to rewrite the nation".


United Kingdom

In 2018,
Eric Kaufmann Eric Peter Kaufmann is a Canadian professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London. He is a specialist on Orangeism in Northern Ireland, nationalism, and political and religious demography. He has authored, co-authored, and edited multiple ...
wrote a piece for the ''
New Statesman The ''New Statesman'' is a British political and cultural magazine published in London. Founded as a weekly review of politics and literature on 12 April 1913, it was at first connected with Sidney and Beatrice Webb and other leading members ...
'' on the demographic decline of
White British White British is an ethnicity classification used for the native white population identifying as English, Scottish, Welsh, Cornish, Northern Irish, or British in the United Kingdom Census. In the 2011 census, the White British population wa ...
people within the United Kingdom, stating that "Three-quarters of people in Britain in 2150 will, like myself, be mixed-race." and highlighted political consequences of such a transformation taking place:
When whites can't express their sense of ethnic loss, they turn to the seemingly more "respectable" alternatives of demonising Muslims, criticising immigrants who live in minority neighbourhoods, or voting for
Brexit Brexit (; a portmanteau of "British exit") was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (00:00 1 February 2020 CET).The UK also left the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or ...
(a result of diverting concerns over ethnic change into hatred of the acceptably "white" EU). Few things have contributed more to today's populist blowback than the demographic blind spot in Western political thought.
In 2020,
Nick Timothy Nicholas James Timothy (born March 1980) is a British political adviser. He served as Joint Downing Street Chief of Staff, alongside Fiona Hill, to Prime Minister Theresa May, until his resignation in the wake of the 2017 general election. ...
, a former
Downing Street Chief of Staff The office of Downing Street Chief of Staff is the most senior political appointee in the Office of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, acting as a senior aide to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The holder of the office retains a ...
, addressed societal consequences of the ongoing demographic decline of
white people in the United Kingdom White people in the United Kingdom are a multi-ethnic group of UK residents who identify as and are perceived to be white people. White people constitute the historical and current majority of the people living in the United Kingdom, with 87.2% ...
:
This is a difficult issue to understand and address, but the anxiety is real. White people are as attached to their ethnic and cultural identity as any other group and, faced with the reality of rapid demographic decline, many feel a sense of loss.


North America


Canada

Writing in 2019, journalist
Margaret Wente Margaret Wente (born 15 February 1950) is a Canadian journalist and was a long-time columnist for ''The Globe and Mail'' until August 2019. She received the National Newspaper Award for column-writing in 2000 and 2001. In 2012, Wente was found ...
has suggested that "nations upended by right-wing populism all have one thing in common. They are all facing white demographic decline. And that is the breeding ground for populist revolts." Wente argues that with significant projected decline of the white share of the population in Canada, the country will have to address reactionary populist politics.


United States

In 1998 research,
Fordham University Fordham University () is a Private university, private Jesuit universities, Jesuit research university in New York City. Established in 1841 and named after the Fordham, Bronx, Fordham neighborhood of the The Bronx, Bronx in which its origina ...
professor Tanya K. Hernandez outlined the potential for
multiracial Americans Multiracial Americans are Americans who have mixed ancestry of two or more races. The term may also include Americans of mixed race ancestry who self-identify with just one group culturally and socially (cf. the one-drop rule). In the 2010 Unite ...
to have their representative US census category "co-opted by the larger society as a mechanism for constructing a buffer class to maintain
White privilege White privilege, or white skin privilege, is the societal privilege that benefits white people over non-white people in some societies, particularly if they are otherwise under the same social, political, or economic circumstances. With roots ...
, in the midst of a growing concern with the demographic decline of White U.S. residents". Samuel P. Huntington's 2004 book '' Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity'' addressed the emerging population change in the United States. In an analysis on Huntington's treatise, political demographer Eric Kaufmann wrote:
Finally, Huntington considers the possibility of a
white nationalist White nationalism is a type of racial nationalism or pan-nationalism which espouses the belief that white people are a raceHeidi Beirich and Kevin Hicks. "Chapter 7: White nationalism in America". In Perry, Barbara. ''Hate Crimes''. Greenwoo ...
response to the changes taking place. He says that white nativism is a "plausible" response to white demographic decline, the cosmopolitan defection of the white elite and the fading power of the Anglo-Protestant core.
By 2010, the Southern Poverty Law Center's 1,000 organizations listed within their "hate" and "nativist" archives predominantly involved politics referencing white demography.
Arizona State University Arizona State University (Arizona State or ASU) is a public research university in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Founded in 1885 by the 13th Arizona Territorial Legislature, ASU is one of the largest public universities by enrollment in the ...
anthropologist Luis Plascencia wrote that "a common thread in many of these groups is the concern with the demographic decline of 'white' individuals". In 2009,
Stanford University Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. The campus occupies , among the largest in the United States, and enrolls over 17,000 students. Stanford is consider ...
professor Eamonn Callan observed that:
The slow but inexorable demographic decline of white Americans to the status of one minority among others has begun to register in popular consciousness, making it harder for anyone to suppose that
American identity American(s) may refer to: * American, something of, from, or related to the United States of America, commonly known as the "United States" or "America" ** Americans, citizens and nationals of the United States of America ** American ancestry, pe ...
could still be
white identity White identity is the objective or subjective state of perceiving oneself as a white person and as relating to being white. White identity has been researched in data and polling, historically and in social sciences. There are however polarized pos ...
.
In the mid-2010s, white people's demographic decline became increasing associated with politics in relation to the 2016 presidential election.
Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pe ...
's policy positions and rhetoric were seen by some scholars as giving an outlet to anxiety based upon this changing white demography. Journalist Christopher Caldwell argued that perceived cultural celebration of the process had contributed to the political energies supporting candidate Trump. Caldwell wrote that "At the same time, white demographic decline has been accompanied in many quarters with official exultation. The promise is not to enrich white America with new ethnicities but to replace it." Research has predicted a rise in rhetoric regarding issues such as
protectionism Protectionism, sometimes referred to as trade protectionism, is the economic policy of restricting imports from other countries through methods such as tariffs on imported goods, import quotas, and a variety of other government regulations. ...
among white Americans, and particularly white
evangelicals Evangelicalism (), also called evangelical Christianity or evangelical Protestantism, is a worldwide Interdenominationalism, interdenominational movement within Protestantism, Protestant Christianity that affirms the centrality of being "bor ...
, in proportion with the ongoing percentage-share reduction of whites. This demographic decline has also been utilized by extremist commentators, such as explicit supporters of the "
alt-right The alt-right, an abbreviation of alternative right, is a far-right, white nationalist movement. A largely online phenomenon, the alt-right originated in the United States during the late 2000s before increasing in popularity during the mid-2 ...
" or
white supremacist White supremacy or white supremacism is the belief that white people are superior to those of other Race (human classification), races and thus should dominate them. The belief favors the maintenance and defense of any Power (social and polit ...
movements. In this regard, research in historian
Mark Sedgwick Mark J. Sedgwick (born 20 July 1960) is a British historian specialising in the study of traditionalism, Islam, Sufi mysticism, and terrorism. He is Professor of Arab and Islamic Studies at Aarhus University in Denmark and chair of the Nordic S ...
's ''Key Thinkers of the Radical Right'' indicated that elements of the extremist right-wing believed that Trump's proposed policies, such as the
Trump travel ban The Trump travel ban (labeled the "Muslim ban" by critics) denotes a series of executive actions taken by Donald Trump as President of the United States. On January 20, 2021, newly-inaugurated president Joe Biden issued a proclamation revok ...
or
the wall ''The Wall'' is the eleventh studio album by the English progressive rock band Pink Floyd, released on 30 November 1979 by Harvest/EMI and Columbia/CBS Records. It is a rock opera that explores Pink, a jaded rock star whose eventual self-imp ...
, would "slow white demographic decline". Similarly,
Aurora University Aurora University (AU) is a private university in Aurora, Illinois. In addition to its main campus and the Orchard Center in Aurora, AU offers programs online, at its George Williams College campus in Williams Bay, Wisconsin, and at the Woodsto ...
professor Faith Agostinone-Wilson's ''On the Question of Truth in the Era of Trump'' describes these types of political aspirations as "an Americanized version of salvation, where White demographic decline is halted and the country is purged of the Other". Anthropologist
Rich Benjamin Rich Benjamin is an American cultural critic, anthropologist, and author. Benjamin is perhaps best known for the non-fiction book '' Searching for Whitopia: An Improbable Journey to the Heart of White America''. He is also a lecturer and a publ ...
has suggested that the "Trump administration has aimed its rhetoric at a slice of aggrieved white Americans who are panicked about their demographic decline", while political scientist Elliot Jager has written:
Trump directs his appeal at disenfranchised working-class Americans by telling them that he'll "
make America great again "Make America Great Again" or MAGA is an American political slogan popularized by Donald Trump in his successful 2016 presidential campaign. The slogan became a pop culture phenomenon, seeing widespread use and spawning numerous variants in ...
", intimating that he'll reverse the demographic decline of whites by "humanely" deporting 11 million mostly Hispanic, illegal aliens; will protect the homeland by banning Muslims from entering, and will build an impenetrable barrier on the
Mexican border Mexico shares international borders with three nations: *To the north the United States–Mexico border, which extends for a length of through the states of Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas. *To the south ...
.
After the inauguration of President Trump, a March 2017 '' New Republic'' article examined Chief Strategist
Steve Bannon Stephen Kevin Bannon (born November 27, 1953) is an American media executive, political strategist, and former investment banker. He served as the White House's chief strategist in the administration of U.S. president Donald Trump during t ...
's advocacy for the 1973 book ''
The Camp of the Saints ''The Camp of the Saints'' (french: Le Camp des Saints) is a 1973 French dystopian fiction novel by author and explorer Jean Raspail. A speculative fictional account, it depicts the destruction of Western civilization through Third World mass im ...
'', which it described as "an explicitly racist novel, saturated in deep fear at the prospect of white demographic decline". In the 2020s, study of American politics increasingly factored in the demographic reduction in analysing the Republican Party's electoral success and future strategy. For example, in analysis of the 2020 presidential election results,
University of Melbourne The University of Melbourne is a public research university located in Melbourne, Australia. Founded in 1853, it is Australia's second oldest university and the oldest in Victoria. Its main campus is located in Parkville, an inner suburb nor ...
professor Timothy J. Lynch suggests "white demographic decline need not spell disaster for the GOP. Despite his dog-whistle racism, Trump performed better than expected among Black voters." In relation to the party's future direction,
UCLA The University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) is a public land-grant research university in Los Angeles, California. UCLA's academic roots were established in 1881 as a teachers college then known as the southern branch of the California St ...
's political scientist Gary Segura notes that "Republicans nationally receive 85 percent of their votes from white voters by capturing between 55 and 60 percent of their ballots in each election", adding that "with the demographic decline of white voters, even 60 percent of that cohort will be a poor start when it comprises just two-thirds of the electorate in 2024". Professor
Nicholas Lemann Nicholas Berthelot Lemann is an American writer and academic, the Joseph Pulitzer II and Edith Pulitzer Moore Professor of Journalism and Dean Emeritus of the Faculty of Journalism at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism. He has be ...
also argues that high motivation and corresponding turnout from the Republican Party's supporter base would be required to offset the ongoing demographic decline of whites by the 2024 election. Interviewed by
Jeffrey Goldberg Jeffrey Mark Goldberg (born September 22, 1965) is an American journalist and editor-in-chief of ''The Atlantic'' magazine. During his nine years at ''The Atlantic'' prior to becoming editor, Goldberg became known for his coverage of foreign affa ...
in 2020, the director of the documentary film ''
White Noise In signal processing, white noise is a random signal having equal intensity at different frequencies, giving it a constant power spectral density. The term is used, with this or similar meanings, in many scientific and technical disciplines, ...
'' proposed that the decline of whites had become the most significant driving force in the politics of the US. Daniel Lombroso stated "There is a deep-seated fear of white demographic decline in this country, and obviously in Europe. And I think that is now the defining fault line in American politics". Brittany Farr, a Sharswood Fellow at
Penn Law Penn may refer to: Places England * Penn, Buckinghamshire * Penn, West Midlands United States * Penn, North Dakota * Penn, Oregon * Pennsylvania ** Penn, Pennsylvania * Penn Lake Park, Pennsylvania * Penn Township (disambiguation), several munici ...
, suggests that reporting on US Census results (regarding falling white demography) by journalistic outlets, such as the ''
New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid d ...
'' and ''
Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...
'', are communicating "a sense of inevitability with respect to white demographic decline".


=Academic study on reactions

= In the United States, responses to the demographic decline of white people have been studied with regard to its affect on the political ideologies of white populations, including recording individual reactions to specific issues, such as welfare, terrorism or ethnic group preference. Sociologists
Bart Bonikowski Bart Bonikowski is an American sociologist. Prior to joining the faculty at New York University (NYU), Bonikowski was an Associate professor of Sociology at Harvard University. Early life and education Bonikowski earned his Bachelor of Arts degre ...
and Yueran Zhang note that:
One major source of perceived racial threat is demographic change. Experimental studies have shown that when exposed to information about white demographic decline or increased racial diversity, white respondents express more negative attitudes towards other racial groups (Craig and Richeson 2014b; Enos 2014; Outten et al. 2012)
A March 2020 research article found that whites in the US were more likely to expand classification of whiteness to include
white Latin Americans White Latin Americans, or European Latin Americans, are Latin Americans who are considered white, typically due to European descent. Latin American countries have often tolerated intermarriage between different ethnic groups since the beginning ...
"when their privileged social status is threatened, for example, by the prospect of numeric decline". July 2020 research showed that
white Americans White Americans are Americans who identify as and are perceived to be white people. This group constitutes the majority of the people in the United States. As of the 2020 Census, 61.6%, or 204,277,273 people, were white alone. This represented ...
who are informed of the projected minority status of whites in the United States are more likely to support the torture of terrorist suspects.


=2021 United States Capitol attack

= In 2021, political scientist
Robert Pape Robert Anthony Pape Jr. (born April 24, 1960) is an American political scientist who studies national and international security affairs, with a focus on air power, American and international political violence, social media propaganda, and t ...
identified that of the 716 people charged or arrested for storming the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., they had travelled predominantly "from counties where the white share of the population is declining fastest". In the aftermath of the attack, Tech Against Terrorism published evidence that white demographic decline was being used as a statistical example by the far right to radicalize Trump supporters.


Extremist exploitation of demography


Anti-abortion movement

In
Katha Pollitt Katha Pollitt (born October 14, 1949) is an American poet, essayist and critic. She is the author of four essay collections and two books of poetry. Her writing focuses on political and social issues from a left-leaning perspective, including abo ...
's 2015 book ''Pro'', the essayist links anxiety with the demographic trend of whites and correlating support for the anti-abortion movement.
Hampshire College Hampshire College is a Private college, private Liberal arts colleges in the United States, liberal arts college in Amherst, Massachusetts. It was opened in 1970 as an experiment in alternative education, in association with four other colleges ...
professor Marlene Fried's research suggests Pollitt exposed the "underlying agenda of the antiabortion movement", recognizing that it was associated with white demographic decline and its subsequent effects on sections of the populace.


Anti-immigration politics

University of Louisville The University of Louisville (UofL) is a public research university in Louisville, Kentucky. It is part of the Kentucky state university system. When founded in 1798, it was the first city-owned public university in the United States and one of ...
's anthropology professor Steven Gardiner has proposed how:
The decline in white fertility, however, is only a small part of the story. The narrative of white demographic decline is being written, primarily, in the language of immigration. It is only since Congress passed the Immigration and Naturalization Act Amendments of 1965 that American racial and ethnic demographics have taken the turn sketched above (
Office of Immigration Statistics The Office of Immigration Statistics (OIS) is an agency of the United States Department of Homeland Security under the Office of Strategy, Policy, and Plans. Since the passage of the Homeland Security Act of 2002, the Department of Homeland Securi ...
2004, 5). Passed during the Johnson Administration, during the height of the
Civil Rights era The civil rights movement was a nonviolent social and political movement and campaign from 1954 to 1968 in the United States to abolish legalized institutional racial segregation, discrimination, and disenfranchisement throughout the United ...
, the 1965 Act repealed the most blatantly racist aspects of the
Immigration Act of 1924 The Immigration Act of 1924, or Johnson–Reed Act, including the Asian Exclusion Act and National Origins Act (), was a United States federal law that prevented immigration from Asia and set quotas on the number of immigrants from the Eastern ...
. It abolished the national origins quotas which had, quite intentionally, limited non-white and non-European immigration to the United States.
Based on the effect of immigration on white demography, academic Jamie Winders has written how anti-immigrant sentiment is "grounded more in rhetoric than logic and often operates outside the boundaries of what actual research shows." Winders, a professor of geography at
Syracuse University Syracuse University (informally 'Cuse or SU) is a Private university, private research university in Syracuse, New York. Established in 1870 with roots in the Methodist Episcopal Church, the university has been nonsectarian since 1920. Locate ...
, notes that, for example: "In rural communities in the South, immigration often keeps smaller towns afloat, maintaining local schools, populations, and economies in the face of white demographic decline." In 2020, research from
University of Guadalajara The University of Guadalajara ( es, Universidad de Guadalajara) is a public higher education institution in the Mexican city of Guadalajara. The university has several high schools as well as graduate and undergraduate campuses, which are distr ...
's Alejandro Canales confirmed similar findings in the southern US. Canales, an expert on migration and population, wrote:
The current case of California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada are a clear indication of what we are affirming. In all of these states the traditional demographic supremacy of non-Hispanic white people practically has been diluted by the influence of Mexican and Latin-American immigration.


Conspiracy theories

Scholars have studied how the demographic decline of white people, as well as its portrayal within different types of media, have contributed towards adherence to racist and disproven conspiracy theories.
Harvard University Harvard University is a private Ivy League research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Founded in 1636 as Harvard College and named for its first benefactor, the Puritan clergyman John Harvard, it is the oldest institution of higher le ...
fellow José Pedro Zúquete has observed that:
For many years in the American extreme right subculture a putative Jewish conspiracy - reified by the notion of ZOG or
Zionist Occupation Government The Zionist occupation government, Zionist occupational government or Zionist-occupied government (ZOG), sometimes also referred to as the Jewish occupational government (JOG), is an antisemitic conspiracy theory claiming Jews secretly contr ...
- was often invoked to explain the demographic decline of whites in America.
In 2019, scholar
Monica Toft Monica Duffy Toft is an American international relations scholar. Her research interests include international security and strategy, ethnic and religious violence, Civil war, civil wars, and the relationship between demography and national securit ...
expanded on the emergence of nativist politics and conspiracy theory advocacy in relation to the demographic phenomenon, stating that "The 'why now' of white nativism is due to decades of demographic decline for white Americans combined with a serious decline in public education standards that leads to unwarranted nostalgia and openness to
conspiracy theories A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful groups, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources: * * * * The term has a nega ...
." Academic
Robert Pape Robert Anthony Pape Jr. (born April 24, 1960) is an American political scientist who studies national and international security affairs, with a focus on air power, American and international political violence, social media propaganda, and t ...
has suggested that one of the conspiracy theories which weaponizes falling white population-share is
The Great Replacement The Great Replacement (french: links=no, Grand Remplacement), also known as replacement theory or great replacement theory, is a white nationalist far-right conspiracy theoryPT71 disseminated by French author Renaud Camus. The original theo ...
.


Terrorism

The
Combating Terrorism Center The Combating Terrorism Center is an academic institution at the United States Military Academy (USMA) in West Point, New York that provides education, research and policy analysis in the specialty areas of terrorism, counterterrorism, homeland ...
, which is an academic institution within the
United States Military Academy The United States Military Academy (USMA), also known metonymically as West Point or simply as Army, is a United States service academy in West Point, New York. It was originally established as a fort, since it sits on strategic high groun ...
, has published research which recognizes anxiety regarding white demographic decline as an ongoing contributing motivation to terrorism in the Western world. An example of this was observed in the Christchurch mosque attacks in New Zealand.
Mark Durie Mark Durie (born 1958) is an Australian Anglican priest and a scholar in linguistics and theology. He is the founding director of the Institute for Spiritual Awareness, a Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a senior research fellow of the Art ...
argues that the Christchurch terrorist intended to frame the demographic decline of white people as a "crisis" which would "incite conflict so that whites will be compelled to awaken, radicalise and grow strong." Durie, a linguistics and theology scholar, wrote: "We need to understand this
ideology An ideology is a set of beliefs or philosophies attributed to a person or group of persons, especially those held for reasons that are not purely epistemic, in which "practical elements are as prominent as theoretical ones." Formerly applied pri ...
, not to give it a platform, but to learn and to equip ourselves to stand against such hatred." In August 2019, a man arrested for threatening to attack people at a Jewish community center in
Ohio Ohio () is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States. Of the fifty U.S. states, it is the 34th-largest by area, and with a population of nearly 11.8 million, is the seventh-most populous and tenth-most densely populated. The sta ...
had been found to have appeared in a documentary speaking about white demographic decline in the United States and Europe.


See also

*
White genocide conspiracy theory The white genocide, white extinction, or white replacement conspiracy theory is a white supremacist conspiracy theory which states that there is a deliberate plot, often blamed on Jews, to promote miscegenation, interracial marriage, mass non- ...
*
Great Replacement The Great Replacement (french: links=no, Grand Remplacement), also known as replacement theory or great replacement theory, is a White nationalism, white nationalist Far-right politics, far-right conspiracy theoryPT71 disseminated by French a ...


References

{{White people Demographics of Canada Demographics of the United Kingdom Demographics of the United States Demographics People of European descent Majority–minority relations White culture Western culture Population decline