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VIX is the
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and the popular name for the
Chicago Board Options Exchange The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), located at 433 West Van Buren Street in Chicago, is the largest U.S. options exchange with an annual trading volume of around 1.27 billion at the end of 2014. CBOE offers options on over 2,200 compani ...
's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the
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's expectation of volatility based on
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index
options Option or Options may refer to: Computing *Option key, a key on Apple computer keyboards *Option type, a polymorphic data type in programming languages *Command-line option, an optional parameter to a command *OPTIONS, an HTTP request method ...
. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the ''fear index'' or ''fear gauge.'' The VIX traces its origin to the financial economics research of Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai. In a series of papers beginning in 1989, Brenner and Galai proposed the creation of a series of volatility indices, beginning with an index on stock market volatility, and moving to interest rate and foreign exchange rate volatility. In their papers, Brenner and Galai proposed, " hevolatility index, to be named 'Sigma Index', would be updated frequently and used as the underlying asset for futures and options. ... A volatility index would play the same role as the market index plays for options and futures on the index." In 1992, the CBOE hired consultant Bob Whaley to calculate values for stock market volatility based on this theoretical work. Whaley utilized data series in the index options market, and provided the CBOE with computations for daily VIX levels from January 1986 to May 1992. The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future might be based. The current VIX index value quotes the expected annualized change in the S&P 500 index over the following 30 days, as computed from options-based theory and current options-market data. To summarize, VIX is a volatility index derived from S&P 500 options for the 30 days following the measurement date, with the price of each option representing the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. The resulting VIX index formulation provides a measure of expected market volatility on which expectations of further stock market volatility in the near future might be based. Like conventional indexes, the VIX Index calculation employs rules for selecting component options and a formula to calculate index values. Unlike other market products, VIX cannot be bought or sold directly. Instead, VIX is traded and exchanged via
derivative In mathematics, the derivative of a function of a real variable measures the sensitivity to change of the function value (output value) with respect to a change in its argument (input value). Derivatives are a fundamental tool of calculus. ...
contract, derived ETFs, and ETNs which most commonly track VIX futures indexes. In addition to VIX, CBOE uses the same methodology to compute the following related products: * CBOE ShortTerm Volatility Index (VIX9DSM), which reflects 9-day expected volatility of the S&P 500 Index, * CBOE S&P 500® 3-Month Volatility Index (VIX3MSM), * CBOE S&P 500® 6-Month Volatility Index (VIX6MSM) * CBOE S&P 500 1-Year Volatility Index (VIX1YSM). CBOE also calculates the Nasdaq-100® Volatility Index (VXNSM), CBOE DJIA® Volatility Index (VXDSM) and the CBOE Russell 2000® Volatility Index (RVXSM). There is even a VIX on VIX (VVIX) which is a volatility of volatility measure in that it represents the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the CBOE Volatility Index (the VIX®).


Specifications

The concept of computing implied volatility or an implied volatility index dates back to the publication of the Black and Scholes' 1973 paper, "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," published in the ''Journal of Political Economy,'' which introduced the seminal
Black–Scholes model The Black–Scholes or Black–Scholes–Merton model is a mathematical model for the dynamics of a financial market containing derivative investment instruments. From the parabolic partial differential equation in the model, known as the Black� ...
for valuing options. Just as a bond's implied yield to maturity can be computed by equating a bond's market price to its valuation formula, an option-implied volatility of a financial or physical asset can be computed by equating the asset option's market price to its valuation formula. In the case of VIX, the option prices used are the S&P 500 index option prices. The VIX takes as inputs the market prices of the call and put options on the S&P 500 index for near-term options with more than 23 days until expiration, next-term options with less than 37 days until expiration, and risk-free U.S. treasury bill interest rates. Options are ignored if their bid prices are zero or where their strike prices are outside the level where two consecutive bid prices are zero. The goal is to estimate the
implied volatility In financial mathematics, the implied volatility (IV) of an option contract is that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when input in an option pricing model (such as Black–Scholes), will return a theoretical value equ ...
of S&P 500 index options at an average expiration of 30 days. The VIX is the volatility of a variance swap and not that of a volatility swap, volatility being the square root of variance, or
standard deviation In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean (also called the expected value) of the set, w ...
. A variance swap can be perfectly statically replicated through vanilla puts and calls, whereas a volatility swap requires dynamic hedging. The VIX is the square root of the risk-neutral expectation of the S&P 500 variance over the next 30 calendar days and is quoted as an annualized standard deviation. The VIX is calculated and disseminated in real-time by the
Chicago Board Options Exchange The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), located at 433 West Van Buren Street in Chicago, is the largest U.S. options exchange with an annual trading volume of around 1.27 billion at the end of 2014. CBOE offers options on over 2,200 compani ...
. On March 26, 2004, trading in futures on the VIX began on CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE). On February 24, 2006, it became possible to trade options on the VIX. Several
exchange-traded fund An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product, i.e. they are traded on stock exchanges. ETFs are similar in many ways to mutual funds, except that ETFs are bought and sold from other owners throughout the ...
s hold mixtures of VIX futures that attempt to enable stock-like trading in those futures. The correlation between these ETFs and the actual VIX index is very poor, especially when the VIX is moving.


VIX Formula

The VIX is a 30-day expectation of volatility given by a weighted portfolio of out-of-the-money European options on the S&P 500: VIX= \sqrt where is the number of average days in a month (30 days), r is the risk-free rate, F is the 30-day forward price on the S&P 500, and P(K) and C(K) are prices for puts and calls with strike K and 30 days to maturity.


History

The following is a timeline of key events in the history of the VIX Index: *1987 - The Sigma Index was introduced in an academic paper by Brenner and Galai, published in Financial Analysts Journal, July/August 1989. Brenner and Galai wrote, "Our volatility index, to be named Sigma Index, would be updated frequently and used as the underlying asset for futures and options... A volatility index would play the same role as the market index play for options and futures on the index." *1989 - Brenner and Galai's paper is published in Financial Analysts Journal. Brenner and Galai develop their research further in graduate symposia at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and at the Leonard M. Stern School of Business at New York University. *1992 - The American Stock Exchange announced it is conducting a feasibility study on a volatility index, proposed as the "Sigma Index." *1993 - On January 19, 1993, the Chicago Board Options Exchange held a press conference to announce the launch of real-time reporting of the CBOE Market Volatility Index or VIX. The formula that determines the VIX is tailored to the CBOE S&P 100 Index (OEX) option prices, and was developed by Professor Robert E. Whaley of Duke University (now at Vanderbilt University), whom the CBOE had commissioned. This index, now known as the VXO, is a measure of implied volatility calculated using 30-day
S&P 100 The S&P 100 Index is a stock market index of United States stocks maintained by Standard & Poor's. Index options on the S&P 100 are traded with the ticker symbol "OEX". Because of the popularity of these options, investors often refer to the i ...
index at-the-money options. *1993 - Professors Brenner and Galai develop their 1989 proposal for a series of volatility index in their paper, "Hedging Volatility in Foreign Currencies," published in The Journal of Derivatives in the fall of 1993. *2003 - The CBOE introduces a new methodology for the VIX. Working with Goldman Sachs, the CBOE developed further computational methodologies, and changed the underlying index the CBOE S&P 100 Index (OEX) to the CBOE S&P 500 Index (SPX). The old methodology was renamed the VXO. *2004 - On March 26, 2004, the first-ever trading in futures on the VIX Index began on the CBOE Futures Exchange (CFE). VIX is now proposed on different trading platforms, like XTB. *2006 - VIX options were launched in February of this year. *2008 - On October 24, 2008, the VIX reached an intraday high of 89.53. *2008 - On November 21, 2008, the VIX closed at a record 80.74. *2018 - On February 5, 2018, the VIX closed 37.32 (up 103.99% from previous close). *2020 - On March 9, 2020, the VIX hit 62.12, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to a combination of the
2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war On 8 March 2020, Saudi Arabia initiated a price war on oil with Russia, facilitating a 65% quarterly fall in the price of oil. In the first few weeks of March, US oil prices fell by 34%, crude oil fell by 26%, and Brent oil fell by 24%. The ...
and the
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identif ...
. *2020 - During the
COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The novel virus was first identif ...
, on March 12, 2020, the VIX hit and closed at 75.47, exceeding the previous Black Monday value, as a travel ban to the US from
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was announced by
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. *2020 - On March 16, the VIX closed at 82.69, the highest level since its inception in 1990. *2021 - The
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is an independent agency of the United States federal government, created in the aftermath of the Wall Street Crash of 1929. The primary purpose of the SEC is to enforce the law against market ...
fined the
S&P Dow Jones Indices S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC () is a joint venture between S&P Global, the CME Group, and News Corp that was announced in 2011 and later launched in 2012. It produces, maintains, licenses, and markets stock market indices as benchmarks and as the ...
for halting data on February 5, 2018.


Interpretation

VIX is sometimes criticized as a prediction of future volatility. Instead it is described as a measure of the current price of index options. Critics claim that, despite a sophisticated formulation, the predictive power of most volatility forecasting models is similar to that of plain-vanilla measures, such as simple past volatility. However, other works have countered that these critiques failed to correctly implement the more complicated models. Some practitioners and portfolio managers have questioned the depth of our understanding of the fundamental concept of volatility, itself. For example, Daniel Goldstein and
Nassim Taleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb (; alternatively ''Nessim ''or'' Nissim''; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist whose work concerns problems of randomness, ...
famously titled one of their research articles, ''We Don't Quite Know What We are Talking About When We Talk About Volatility''. Relatedly,
Emanuel Derman Emanuel Derman (born 1945) is a South African-born academic, businessman and writer. He is best known as a quantitative analyst, and author of the book ''My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance''. He is a co-author of Black–Der ...
has expressed disillusion with empirical models that are unsupported by theory. He argues that, while "theories are attempts to uncover the hidden principles underpinning the world around us... e should remember thatmodels are metaphors—analogies that describe one thing relative to another." Michael Harris, the trader, programmer, price pattern theorist, and author, has argued that VIX just tracks the inverse of price and has no predictive power. According to some, VIX should have predictive power as long as the prices computed by the Black-Scholes equation are valid assumptions about the volatility predicted for the future lead time (the remaining time to maturity). Robert J. Shiller has argued that it would be circular reasoning to consider VIX to be proof of Black-Scholes, because they both express the same implied volatility, and has found that calculating VIX retrospectively in 1929 did not predict the surpassing volatility of the
Great Depression The Great Depression (19291939) was an economic shock that impacted most countries across the world. It was a period of economic depression that became evident after a major fall in stock prices in the United States. The Financial contagion, ...
—suggesting that in the case of anomalous conditions, VIX cannot even weakly predict future severe events. An academic study from the University of Texas at Austin and Ohio State University examined potential methods of VIX manipulation. On February 12, 2018, a letter was sent to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission by a law firm representing an anonymous whistleblower alleging manipulation of the VIX.


Volatility of volatility

In 2012, the CBOE introduced the "VVIX index" (also referred to as "vol of vol"), a measure of the VIX's expected volatility. VVIX is calculated using the same methodology as VIX, except the inputs are market prices for VIX options instead of stock market options. The VIX can be thought of as the velocity of investor fear. The VVIX can be thought of as the acceleration of investor fear.


See also

* Economic Policy Uncertainty Index *
Greed and fear Greed and fear refer to two opposing emotional states theorized as factors causing the unpredictability and volatility of the stock market, and irrational market behavior inconsistent with the efficient-market hypothesis. Greed and fear relate ...
* Hindenburg Omen * IVX *
Market trend A market trend is a perceived tendency of financial markets to move in a particular direction over time. Analysts classify these trends as ''secular'' for long time-frames, ''primary'' for medium time-frames, and ''secondary'' for short time-fra ...
* Probability of default * S&P/ASX 200 VIX * SKEW *
Volfefe index The Volfefe Index was a stock market index of volatility in market sentiment for US Treasury bonds caused by tweets by former President Donald Trump. ''Bloomberg News'' observed Volfefe was created due to the statistical significance of Trump ...


References


Further reading

* Black, Fischer and
Myron Scholes Myron Samuel Scholes ( ; born July 1, 1941) is a Canadian- American financial economist. Scholes is the Frank E. Buck Professor of Finance, Emeritus, at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, and co-orig ...
. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities." Journal of Political Economy (May/June 1973), pp. 637–659. * * *"Amex Explores Volatility Options,
International Financing Review
August 8, 1992. *Black, Keith H. "Improving Hedge Fund Risk Exposures by Hedging Equity Market Volatility, or How the VIX Ate My Kurtosis." The Journal of Trading. (Spring 2006). *Connors, Larry. "A Volatile Idea." Futures (July 1999): p. 36—37. *Connors, Larry. "Timing Your S&P Trades with the VIX." Futures (June 2002): pp. 46–47. *Copeland, Maggie. "Market Timing: Style and Size Rotation Using the VIX." Financial Analysts Journal, (Mar/Apr 1999); pp. 73–82. *Daigler, Robert T., and Laura Rossi. "A Portfolio of Stocks and Volatility." The Journal of Investing. (Summer 2006). *Fleming, Jeff, Barbara Ostdiek, and Robert E. Whaley, "Predicting Stock Market Volatility: A New Measure," The Journal of Futures Markets 15 (May 1995), pp. 265–302. * Hulbert, Mark
"The Misuse of the Stock Market's Fear Index,"
Barron's, October 7, 2011. *Mele, Antonio and Yoshiki Obayashi. "The Price of Fixed Income Market Volatility." Springer Verlag: Springer Finance Series, New York (2015). *Moran, Matthew T., "Review of the VIX Index and VIX Futures.," Journal of Indexes, (October/November 2004). pp. 16–19. *Moran, Matthew T. and Srikant Dash. "VIX Futures and Options: Pricing and Using Volatility Products to Manage Downside Risk and Improve Efficiency in Equity Portfolios." The Journal of Trading. (Summer 2007). *Szado, Ed. "VIX Futures and Options—A Case Study of Portfolio Diversification During the 2008 Financial Crisis." (June 2009). *Tan, Kopin. "The ABCs of VIX." Barron's (Mar 15, 2004): p. MW16. *Tracy, Tennille. "Trading Soars on Financials As Volatility Index Hits Record." Wall Street Journal. (Sept. 30, 2008) pg. C6. * Whaley, Robert E.
"Derivatives on Market Volatility: Hedging Tools Long Overdue,"
The Journal of Derivatives 1 (Fall 1993), pp. 71–84. * Whaley, Robert E., "The Investor Fear Gauge," The Journal of Portfolio Management 26 (Spring 2000), pp. 12–17. * Whaley, Robert E., "Understanding the VIX." The Journal of Portfolio Management 35 (Spring 2009), pp. 98–105.


External links


Official website
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