United States presidential election in Iowa, 2016

The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the

2016 United States presidential election The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket ...

in which all 50 states plus the

District of Columbia ) , image_skyline = , image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...

participated.

Iowa Iowa () is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States, bordered by the Mississippi River to the east and the Missouri River and Big Sioux River to the west. It is bordered by six states: Wisconsin to the northeast, Illinois to th ...

voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...

, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...

, and her running mate Virginia Senator

Tim Kaine Timothy Michael Kaine (; born February 26, 1958) is an American lawyer and politician serving as the junior United States senator from Virginia since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as the 38th lieutenant governor of Virgi ...

. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College. Trump won the state with 51.2% of the vote, while Clinton received 41.7%. Clinton's performance in Iowa was the worst performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1980. Trump won over a dozen counties that had not voted Republican since Ronald Reagan was on the ticket; won two counties that had last voted Republican in

Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a representative and senator from California and was ...

's landslide victory in

1972 Within the context of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) it was the longest year ever, as two leap seconds were added during this 366-day year, an event which has not since been repeated. (If its start and end are defined using mean solar tim ...

; and also won Dubuque County, that had last voted Republican in

1956 Events January * January 1 – The Anglo-Egyptian Condominium ends in Sudan. * January 8 – Operation Auca: Five U.S. evangelical Christian missionaries, Nate Saint, Roger Youderian, Ed McCully, Jim Elliot and Pete Fleming, ar ...

. Trump carried Iowa by the largest margin of any Republican candidate since Reagan in 1980, and he was the first Republican to win more than 50% of the popular vote since Reagan's 1984 landslide. Trump enjoyed the support of working-class whites in the agricultural industry, as well as the endorsement of Iowa's GOP establishment. The difference of 9.4% points was the largest winning margin for Trump in a state that had voted for

Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Obama was the first African-American president of the ...

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. This was also the first time since

1976 Events January * January 3 – The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights enters into force. * January 5 – The Pol Pot regime proclaims a new constitution for Democratic Kampuchea. * January 11 – The 1976 ...

that Iowa voted to the right of Texas, which Trump won in this election by 8.99 points. Trump carried 93 out of 99 counties, the most for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since 1980, and he flipped 32 counties won by Obama in 2012, the most out of any state. This was the first time since

1988 File:1988 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: The oil platform Piper Alpha explodes and collapses in the North Sea, killing 165 workers; The USS Vincennes (CG-49) mistakenly shoots down Iran Air Flight 655; Australia celebrates its Bicenten ...

in which Iowa did not go for the winner of the popular vote. It was also the first time since 2004 (and only the second since

1984 Events January * January 1 – The Bornean Sultanate of Brunei gains full independence from the United Kingdom, having become a British protectorate in 1888. * January 7 – Brunei becomes the sixth member of the Association of Southeas ...

) that Iowa would vote for a Republican candidate.

Caucuses

The incumbent

President of the United States The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States ...

, a

Democrat Democrat, Democrats, or Democratic may refer to: Politics *A proponent of democracy, or democratic government; a form of government involving rule by the people. *A member of a Democratic Party: **Democratic Party (United States) (D) **Democratic ...

and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, was first elected to the presidency in

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, running with U.S. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Defeating the

Republican Republican can refer to: Political ideology * An advocate of a republic, a type of government that is not a monarchy or dictatorship, and is usually associated with the rule of law. ** Republicanism, the ideology in support of republics or agains ...

nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote, Obama succeeded two-term Republican President

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...

, the former Governor of Texas. Obama and Biden were reelected in the

2012 presidential election This national electoral calendar for 2012 lists the national/ federal elections held in 2012 in all sovereign states and their dependent territories. By-elections are excluded, though national referendums are included. January *3–4 January ...

, defeating former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of electoral votes. Although Barack Obama's approval rating in the RealClearPolitics poll tracking average remained between 40 and 50 percent for most of his second term, it experienced a surge in early 2016 and reached its highest point since 2012 during June of that year. Analyst Nate Cohn noted that a strong approval rating for President Obama would equate to a strong performance for the Democratic candidate, and vice versa. President Obama was not eligible to be re-elected after having served two terms. Obama's running-mate and two-term

Vice President A vice president, also director in British English, is an officer in government or business who is below the president (chief executive officer) in rank. It can also refer to executive vice presidents, signifying that the vice president is on ...

Biden decided not to enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination either.

Democratic caucus

Procedure

There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to

county A county is a geographic region of a country used for administrative or other purposes Chambers Dictionary, L. Brookes (ed.), 2005, Chambers Harrap Publishers Ltd, Edinburgh in certain modern nations. The term is derived from the Old French ...

conventions supporting

, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates. Iowa Democratic presidential caucus election, 2016

Iowa Democratic presidential caucus election, 2016

County Conventions

In early March, the delegates chosen in the Caucuses met chose delegates to the Congressional District Conventions.

Republican caucus

General election

Polling

Up until late August 2016, the election was close, with both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winning polls but neither taking a serious lead. In September 2016, Trump gained momentum, by winning a poll 44% to 39% in early September and then winning 3 more polls in a row by margins larger than 5%. From late September 2016 till election day, Trump won every poll but one. The final poll average showed Donald Trump ahead 44% to 41%, with many undecided voters that mostly swung to Donald Trump on election night. The latest poll also showed Trump ahead by 46% to 39%.

Predictions

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Allamakee (largest city: Waukon) * Boone (largest city: Boone) * Bremer (largest city: Waverly) * Buchanan (largest city:

Independence Independence is a condition of a person, nation, country, or state in which residents and population, or some portion thereof, exercise self-government, and usually sovereignty, over its territory. The opposite of independence is the statu ...

) *

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(largest city:

Tipton Tipton is an industrial town in the West Midlands in England with a population of around 38,777 at the 2011 UK Census. It is located northwest of Birmingham. Tipton was once one of the most heavily industrialised towns in the Black Country, w ...

) * Cerro Gordo (largest city: Mason City) *

Chickasaw The Chickasaw ( ) are an indigenous people of the Southeastern Woodlands. Their traditional territory was in the Southeastern United States of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee as well in southwestern Kentucky. Their language is classif ...

(largest city: New Hampton) * Clarke (largest city:

Osceola Osceola (1804 – January 30, 1838, Asi-yahola in Muscogee language, Creek), named Billy Powell at birth in Alabama, became an influential leader of the Seminole people in Florida. His mother was Muscogee, and his great-grandfather was a S ...

) * Clayton (largest city: Guttenberg) * Clinton (largest city: Clinton) * Des Moines (largest city: Burlington) * Dubuque (largest city: Dubuque) * Fayette (largest city:

Oelwein Oelwein is a city in Fayette County, Iowa, United States. The population was 5,920 at the time of the 2020 census, a decrease of 11.5% from the 2000 census. The largest community in Fayette County, it is located at the junction of State Highways ...

) * Floyd (largest city: Charles City) * Howard (largest city: Cresco) *

Jackson Jackson may refer to: People and fictional characters * Jackson (name), including a list of people and fictional characters with the surname or given name Places Australia * Jackson, Queensland, a town in the Maranoa Region * Jackson North, Qu ...

(largest city: Maquoketa) *

Jasper Jasper, an aggregate of microgranular quartz and/or cryptocrystalline chalcedony and other mineral phases,Kostov, R. I. 2010. Review on the mineralogical systematics of jasper and related rocks. – Archaeometry Workshop, 7, 3, 209-213PDF/ref> ...

(largest city: Newton) * Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield) * Jones (largest city: Anamosa) * Lee (largest city: Fort Madison) * Louisa (largest city: Wapello) *

Marshall Marshall may refer to: Places Australia * Marshall, Victoria, a suburb of Geelong, Victoria Canada * Marshall, Saskatchewan * The Marshall, a mountain in British Columbia Liberia * Marshall, Liberia Marshall Islands * Marshall Islands, an i ...

(largest city:

Marshalltown Marshalltown is a city in and the county seat of Marshall County, Iowa, United States, located along the Iowa River. It is the seat and most populous settlement of Marshall County and the 16th largest city in Iowa, with a population of 27,591 at ...

) * Mitchell (largest city: Osage) * Muscatine (largest city: Muscatine) * Poweshiek (largest city: Grinnell) * Tama (largest city: Tama) *

Union Union commonly refers to: * Trade union, an organization of workers * Union (set theory), in mathematics, a fundamental operation on sets Union may also refer to: Arts and entertainment Music * Union (band), an American rock group ** ''Un ...

(largest city: Creston) * Wapello (largest city: Ottumwa) * Webster (largest city: Fort Dodge) * Winneshiek (largest city: Decorah) * Woodbury (largest city:

Sioux City Sioux City () is a city in Woodbury and Plymouth counties in the northwestern part of the U.S. state of Iowa. The population was 85,797 in the 2020 census, making it the fourth-largest city in Iowa. The bulk of the city is in Woodbury County ...

) * Worth (largest city: Northwood)

By congressional district

Trump won all 4 of the congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.

References

External links

RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process

Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
{{U.S. presidential primaries

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Presidential