United States presidential election in Virginia, 2016

The 2016 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all 50 states plus the

District of Columbia ) , image_skyline = , image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...

participated.

Virginia Virginia, officially the Commonwealth of Virginia, is a state in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions of the United States, between the Atlantic Coast and the Appalachian Mountains. The geography and climate of the Commonwealth ar ...

voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pe ...

, and running mate

Indiana Governor The governor of Indiana is the head of government of the State of Indiana. The governor is elected to a four-year term and is responsible for overseeing the day-to-day management of the functions of many agencies of the Indiana state government ...

Mike Pence Michael Richard Pence (born June 7, 1959) is an American politician who served as the 48th vice president of the United States from 2017 to 2021 under President Donald Trump. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the 50th ...

against

Democratic Party Democratic Party most often refers to: *Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party and similar terms may also refer to: Active parties Africa *Botswana Democratic Party *Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea *Gabonese Democratic Party *Demo ...

nominee, former Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...

and her running mate, Virginia

Senator A senate is a deliberative assembly, often the upper house or chamber of a bicameral legislature. The name comes from the ancient Roman Senate (Latin: ''Senatus''), so-called as an assembly of the senior (Latin: ''senex'' meaning "the el ...

Tim Kaine Timothy Michael Kaine (; born February 26, 1958) is an American lawyer and politician serving as the junior United States senator from Virginia since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as the 38th lieutenant governor of Virgini ...

. The Democratic Party candidate,

New York New York most commonly refers to: * New York City, the most populous city in the United States, located in the state of New York * New York (state), a state in the northeastern United States New York may also refer to: Film and television * '' ...

, carried Virginia with a 49.73% plurality in the popular vote against businessman

of New York, who carried 44.41%, a victory margin of 5.32%. Clinton seemed to benefit from having former Virginia governor Tim Kaine on the ticket. Whereas the national popular vote swung 1.77% Republican from the previous election, Virginia swung 1.44% Democratic. (Due to a higher third-party vote, Clinton's percentage was lower than Obama's in both 2008 and 2012, however.) Kaine himself became optimistic on election night after it became clear that he and Clinton would win Virginia by a larger margin than Obama did in 2012. His optimism soon faded, however, as it was announced that Clinton had lost many other important

swing state In American politics, the term swing state (also known as battleground state or purple state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to pre ...

s to Trump. Conversely, Trump became the first Republican since

Calvin Coolidge Calvin Coolidge (born John Calvin Coolidge Jr.; ; July 4, 1872January 5, 1933) was the 30th president of the United States from 1923 to 1929. Born in Vermont, Coolidge was a History of the Republican Party (United States), Republican lawyer ...

1924 Events January * January 12 – Gopinath Saha shoots Ernest Day, whom he has mistaken for Sir Charles Tegart, the police commissioner of Calcutta, and is arrested soon after. * January 20– 30 – Kuomintang in China hol ...

to win the White House without carrying Virginia and Clinton the first Democrat to carry the state without winning the presidency since that election. Trump is also the first Republican since

Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan ( ; February 6, 1911June 5, 2004) was an American politician, actor, and union leader who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He also served as the 33rd governor of California from 1967 ...

1980 Events January * January 4 – U.S. President Jimmy Carter proclaims a grain embargo against the USSR with the support of the European Commission. * January 6 – Global Positioning System time epoch begins at 00:00 UTC. * January 9 – ...

to win the presidency without sweeping every former confederate state. The Old Dominion had been a traditionally Democratic-leaning state from the party's founding until

1952 Events January–February * January 26 – Black Saturday in Egypt: Rioters burn Cairo's central business district, targeting British and upper-class Egyptian businesses. * February 6 ** Princess Elizabeth, Duchess of Edinburgh, becomes m ...

. It then became reliably Republican-leaning from 1952 until

2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...

, after which point it has voted Democratic in every presidential election. This was due largely to migration into counties in

Northern Virginia Northern Virginia, locally referred to as NOVA or NoVA, comprises several counties and independent cities in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States. It is a widespread region radiating westward and southward from Washington, D.C. Wit ...

, close to

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, which has further tilted these densely populated areas towards the Democratic Party. Virginia was the only one of the eleven states that composed the

Confederate States of America The Confederate States of America (CSA), commonly referred to as the Confederate States or the Confederacy was an unrecognized breakaway republic in the Southern United States that existed from February 8, 1861, to May 9, 1865. The Confeder ...

to vote Democratic in this election. This is a reversal from

1976 Events January * January 3 – The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights enters into force. * January 5 – The Pol Pot regime proclaims a new constitution for Democratic Kampuchea. * January 11 – The 1976 Phila ...

, when it was the only state that had been part of the Confederacy to vote Republican. Virginia was also the only state Hillary Clinton won which was never carried by her husband

Bill Clinton William Jefferson Clinton ( né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. He previously served as governor of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981 and agai ...

in either of his runs for president in

1992 File:1992 Events Collage V1.png, From left, clockwise: 1992 Los Angeles riots, Riots break out across Los Angeles, California after the Police brutality, police beating of Rodney King; El Al Flight 1862 crashes into a residential apartment buildi ...

and

1996 File:1996 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: A Centennial Olympic Park bombing, bomb explodes at Centennial Olympic Park in Atlanta, set off by a radical Anti-abortion violence, anti-abortionist; The center fuel tank explodes on TWA Flight 8 ...

in which the state ironically had last voted against the winning candidate. Virginia was one of eleven states to vote more Democratic than in 2012. This was only the third time since

Reconstruction Reconstruction may refer to: Politics, history, and sociology *Reconstruction (law), the transfer of a company's (or several companies') business to a new company *'' Perestroika'' (Russian for "reconstruction"), a late 20th century Soviet Unio ...

that Virginia voted for a different candidate than

Florida Florida is a state located in the Southeastern region of the United States. Florida is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the northwest by Alabama, to the north by Georgia, to the east by the Bahamas and Atlantic Ocean, and to ...

, after

and

, and the first in which Virginia voted Democratic while Florida voted Republican. This would happen again four years later. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying

Prince William County Prince William County is located on the Potomac River in the U.S. state of Virginia. As of the 2020 census, the population sits at 482,204, making it Virginia's second-most populous county. Its county seat is the independent city of Manassas ...

since

Dwight D. Eisenhower Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower (born David Dwight Eisenhower; ; October 14, 1890 – March 28, 1969) was an American military officer and statesman who served as the 34th president of the United States from 1953 to 1961. During World War II, ...

, as well as the first to do so without carrying

Loudoun County Loudoun County () is in the northern part of the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States. In 2020, the census returned a population of 420,959, making it Virginia's third-most populous county. Loudoun County's seat is Leesburg. Loudoun C ...

since

Herbert Hoover Herbert Clark Hoover (August 10, 1874 – October 20, 1964) was an American politician who served as the 31st president of the United States from 1929 to 1933 and a member of the Republican Party, holding office during the onset of the Gr ...

1928 Events January * January – British bacteriologist Frederick Griffith reports the results of Griffith's experiment, indirectly proving the existence of DNA. * January 1 – Eastern Bloc emigration and defection: Boris Bazhanov, J ...

, and the first to do so without carrying

Henrico County Henrico County , officially the County of Henrico, is located in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the United States. As of the 2020 census, the population was 334,389 making it the fifth-most populous county in Virginia. Henrico County is incl ...

since Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

Democratic primary

The 108 delegates (95 pledged delegates and 13

super delegates In American politics, a superdelegate is an unpledged delegate to the Democratic National Convention who is seated automatically and chooses for themselves for whom they vote. These Democratic Party superdelegates (who make up slightly under 15% ...

) from

to the

Democratic National Convention The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is a series of presidential nominating conventions held every four years since 1832 by the United States Democratic Party. They have been administered by the Democratic National Committee since the 1852 ...

were allocated in this way. Among the pledged delegates, 62 of them were allocated based on the popular vote in each congressional district. The 33 at-large delegates were then allocated based on the statewide popular vote.

Republican primary

The 49 delegates from

to the

Republican National Convention The Republican National Convention (RNC) is a series of presidential nominating conventions held every four years since 1856 by the United States Republican Party. They are administered by the Republican National Committee. The goal of the Repu ...

were allocated proportionally based on the popular vote.

Libertarian nomination

The 2016 Libertarian Party presidential ticket was former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson for president and former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld for vice president. They earned those nominations at the

Libertarian Party Active parties by country Defunct parties by country Organizations associated with Libertarian parties See also * Liberal parties by country * List of libertarian organizations * Lists of political parties Lists of political part ...

2016 National Convention on Memorial Day weekend.

Green primary

The Virginia Green Party held its primary from March 20 through April 3. Party members were able to vote online through an email ballot or through the mail. On April 13, it was announced that Jill Stein had won with 76% of the vote. The state's four delegates were apportioned at the May 28 state meeting.

General election

Polling

In polling, Hillary Clinton won or tied in every pre-election poll but one. An average of the last three polls showed Clinton ahead of Trump 48% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results.

Voting history

Virginia joined the Union in June 1788 and has participated in all elections from 1789 onwards, except 1864 and 1868 (due to its secession from the US due to the

American Civil War The American Civil War (April 12, 1861 – May 26, 1865; also known by other names) was a civil war in the United States. It was fought between the Union ("the North") and the Confederacy ("the South"), the latter formed by states th ...

). Since 1900, Virginia voted Democratic 54.17% of the time and Republican 45.83% of the time. From 1968 to 2004, Virginia voted for the Republican Party candidate. Then, in the 2008 and 2012 elections, the state voted for the Democratic Party. The same trend continued in the 2016 presidential elections. Clinton had several advantages in Virginia. The first was due in part to her landslide win in the

Democratic primary This is a list of Democratic Party presidential primaries. 1912 This was the first time that candidates were chosen through primaries. New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson ran to become the nominee, and faced the opposition of Speaker of the Unit ...

against Senator

Bernie Sanders Bernard Sanders (born September8, 1941) is an American politician who has served as the junior United States senator from Vermont since 2007. He was the U.S. representative for the state's at-large congressional district from 1991 to 2007 ...

. The second was Virginia has a significant number of African American voters, many of whom backed Clinton in the primary and both of President

Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Obama was the first African-American president of the U ...

's wins in the state. The third was the state's growing share of well-educated suburban voters, especially in the suburbs surrounding

, who were moving away from the Republican Party in response to Trump being nominated for president. The fourth was Clinton's pick of the state's own US Senator,

, as her vice presidential running mate. While polls throughout the campaign showed Clinton leading Republican

by varying margins in Virginia, it was announced on October 13 that the Trump campaign was pulling its resources out of the state, likely ceding to Clinton what was perceived to be a critical battleground state. According to the Trump campaign, the reason for pulling out of Virginia was to compete in more critical battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, all of which were states he won.

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Virginia as of election day.

Results

By city/county

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Buckingham Buckingham ( ) is a market town in north Buckinghamshire, England, close to the borders of Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire, which had a population of 12,890 at the 2011 Census. The town lies approximately west of Central Milton Keynes, sou ...

(largest town: Dillwyn) *

Caroline Caroline may refer to: People * Caroline (given name), a feminine given name * J. C. Caroline (born 1933), American college and National Football League player * Jordan Caroline (born 1996), American (men's) basketball player Places Antarctica * ...

(largest town:

Bowling Green A bowling green is a finely laid, close-mown and rolled stretch of turf for playing the game of bowls. Before 1830, when Edwin Beard Budding of Thrupp, near Stroud, UK, invented the lawnmower, lawns were often kept cropped by grazing sheep on ...

) *

Chesapeake Chesapeake often refers to: *Chesapeake people, a Native American tribe also known as the Chesepian * The Chesapeake, a.k.a. Chesapeake Bay *Delmarva Peninsula, also known as the Chesapeake Peninsula Chesapeake may also refer to: Populated plac ...

(independent city) * Covington (independent city) *

Essex Essex () is a county in the East of England. One of the home counties, it borders Suffolk and Cambridgeshire to the north, the North Sea to the east, Hertfordshire to the west, Kent across the estuary of the River Thames to the south, and G ...

(largest town: Tappahannock) *

Nelson Nelson may refer to: Arts and entertainment * ''Nelson'' (1918 film), a historical film directed by Maurice Elvey * ''Nelson'' (1926 film), a historical film directed by Walter Summers * ''Nelson'' (opera), an opera by Lennox Berkeley to a lib ...

(largest community: Nellysford) * Westmoreland (largest town:

Colonial Beach Colonial Beach, Virginia (CBVA) is a river and beach town located in the northwestern part of Westmoreland County on Virginia's Northern Neck peninsula. It is bounded by the Potomac River, Monroe Bay and Monroe Creek. It is located from Washingt ...

)

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Montgomery (largest town: Blacksburg)

By congressional district

Trump won 6 of 11 congressional districts, while Clinton won 5, including one held by a Republican.

Notes

References

External links

RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process

Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions

Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Virginia
{{U.S. presidential primaries VA

2016 File:2016 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: Bombed-out buildings in Ankara following the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt; the impeachment trial of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff; Damaged houses during the 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh ...

Presidential