The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, commonly referred to as the EU referendum or the Brexit referendum, took place on 23 June 2016 in the United Kingdom (UK) and
Gibraltar
)
, anthem = " God Save the King"
, song = " Gibraltar Anthem"
, image_map = Gibraltar location in Europe.svg
, map_alt = Location of Gibraltar in Europe
, map_caption = United Kingdom shown in pale green
, mapsize =
, image_map2 = Gib ...
to ask the electorate whether the country should remain a member of, or leave, the
European Union
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
(EU). It was organised and facilitated through the
European Union Referendum Act 2015
The European Union Referendum Act 2015c. 36 was an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom that made legal provision for a consultative referendum to be held in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar, on whether it should remain a member state ...
and the
Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000
The Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 (c. 41) is an Act of Parliament of the United Kingdom that sets out how political parties, elections and referendums are to be regulated in the United Kingdom. It formed an important par ...
. The referendum resulted in 51.9% of the votes cast being in favour of leaving the EU. Although the referendum was legally non-binding, the government of the time promised to implement the result.
Membership of the EU had long been a topic of debate in the United Kingdom. The country joined the
European Communities
The European Communities (EC) were three international organizations that were governed by the same set of institutions. These were the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom), and the ...
(EC), principally the
European Economic Community
The European Economic Community (EEC) was a regional organization created by the Treaty of Rome of 1957,Today the largely rewritten treaty continues in force as the ''Treaty on the functioning of the European Union'', as renamed by the Lisb ...
(EEC) or Common Market, the forerunner to the European Union, in 1973, along with the
European Coal and Steel Community
The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) was a European organization created after World War II to regulate the coal and steel industries. It was formally established in 1951 by the Treaty of Paris, signed by Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembo ...
(ECSC), and the
European Atomic Energy Community
The European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom) is an international organisation established by the Euratom Treaty on 25 March 1957 with the original purpose of creating a specialist market for nuclear power in Europe, by developing nucl ...
(EAEC or Euratom).
A referendum on continued membership of the Communities was held in 1975, with 67.2% of the votes cast in favour of Britain remaining a member.
In May 2015, following a Conservative Party manifesto pledge, the legal basis for the EU referendum was established through the
European Union Referendum Act 2015
The European Union Referendum Act 2015c. 36 was an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom that made legal provision for a consultative referendum to be held in the United Kingdom and Gibraltar, on whether it should remain a member state ...
.
Britain Stronger in Europe
Britain Stronger in Europe (formally The In Campaign Limited) was an advocacy group which campaigned in favour of the United Kingdom's continued membership of the European Union in the 2016 British referendum. It was launched at the Old Truma ...
became the official group campaigning for the UK to remain in the EU, and was endorsed by the Prime Minister
David Cameron
David William Donald Cameron (born 9 October 1966) is a British former politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016 and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2005 to 2016. He previously served as Leader o ...
and
Chancellor
Chancellor ( la, cancellarius) is a title of various official positions in the governments of many nations. The original chancellors were the of Roman courts of justice—ushers, who sat at the or lattice work screens of a basilica or law cou ...
George Osborne
George Gideon Oliver Osborne (born Gideon Oliver Osborne; 23 May 1971) is a former British politician and newspaper editor who served as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2010 to 2016 and as First Secretary of State from 2015 to 2016 in the ...
.
Vote Leave
Vote Leave was a campaigning organisation that supported a "Leave" vote in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. On 13 April 2016 it was designated by the Electoral Commission as the official campaign in favour of leavi ...
was the official group campaigning for the UK to leave the EU, and was fronted by Conservative
MPs Boris Johnson
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (; born 19 June 1964) is a British politician, writer and journalist who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as F ...
and
Michael Gove
Michael Andrew Gove (; born Graeme Andrew Logan, 26 August 1967) is a British politician serving as Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities and Minister for Intergovernmental Relations since 2021. He has been Member of Parli ...
along with
Labour
Labour or labor may refer to:
* Childbirth, the delivery of a baby
* Labour (human activity), or work
** Manual labour, physical work
** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer
** Organized labour and the labour ...
MP
Gisela Stuart
Gisela Stuart, Baroness Stuart of Edgbaston (''née'' Gschaider; born 26 November 1955) is a British-German politician and life peer who served as Member of Parliament (MP) for Birmingham Edgbaston from 1997 to 2017. A former member of the La ...
. Other campaign groups, political parties, businesses, trade unions, newspapers and prominent individuals were also involved, with both sides having supporters from across the
political spectrum
A political spectrum is a system to characterize and classify different political positions in relation to one another. These positions sit upon one or more geometric axes that represent independent political dimensions. The expressions politi ...
. Parties in favour of 'remain' included
Labour
Labour or labor may refer to:
* Childbirth, the delivery of a baby
* Labour (human activity), or work
** Manual labour, physical work
** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer
** Organized labour and the labour ...
, the
Liberal Democrats, the
Scottish National Party
The Scottish National Party (SNP; sco, Scots National Pairty, gd, Pàrtaidh Nàiseanta na h-Alba ) is a Scottish nationalist and social democratic political party in Scotland. The SNP supports and campaigns for Scottish independence from ...
(SNP),
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru ( ; ; officially Plaid Cymru – the Party of Wales, often referred to simply as Plaid) is a centre-left to left-wing, Welsh nationalist political party in Wales, committed to Welsh independence from the United Kingdom.
Plaid wa ...
and the
Green Party
A green party is a formally organized political party based on the principles of green politics, such as social justice, environmentalism and nonviolence.
Greens believe that these issues are inherently related to one another as a foundation ...
; while the
UK Independence Party
The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest par ...
(UKIP) campaigned in favour of leaving the European Union; and the
Conservative Party
The Conservative Party is a name used by many political parties around the world. These political parties are generally right-wing though their exact ideologies can range from center-right to far-right.
Political parties called The Conservative P ...
remained neutral. In spite of the official positions of the Conservative Party and Labour, both parties allowed their MPs to publicly campaign for either side of the issue.
Immediately after the result, financial markets reacted negatively worldwide, and Cameron announced that he would resign as
Prime Minister
A prime minister, premier or chief of cabinet is the head of the cabinet and the leader of the ministers in the executive branch of government, often in a parliamentary or semi-presidential system. Under those systems, a prime minister is not ...
and
Leader of the Conservative Party, having campaigned unsuccessfully to remain in the European Union. It was the first time that a national referendum result had gone against the preferred option of the
UK Government
ga, Rialtas a Shoilse gd, Riaghaltas a Mhòrachd
, image = HM Government logo.svg
, image_size = 220px
, image2 = Royal Coat of Arms of the United Kingdom (HM Government).svg
, image_size2 = 180px
, caption = Royal Arms
, date_es ...
. Cameron was succeeded by
Theresa May
Theresa Mary May, Lady May (; née Brasier; born 1 October 1956) is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2016 to 2019. She previously served in David Cameron's cab ...
on 13 July 2016. Labour leader
Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Bernard Corbyn (; born 26 May 1949) is a British politician who served as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party from 2015 to 2020. On the political left of the Labour Party, Corbyn describes himself as a socialist ...
also faced a
leadership challenge as a result of the EU referendum. On 29 March 2017, the
United Kingdom gave formal notice of intent to withdraw from the EU.
Background
The
European Communities
The European Communities (EC) were three international organizations that were governed by the same set of institutions. These were the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom), and the ...
were formed in the 1950s the
European Coal and Steel Community
The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) was a European organization created after World War II to regulate the coal and steel industries. It was formally established in 1951 by the Treaty of Paris, signed by Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembo ...
(ECSC) in 1952, and the
European Atomic Energy Community
The European Atomic Energy Community (EAEC or Euratom) is an international organisation established by the Euratom Treaty on 25 March 1957 with the original purpose of creating a specialist market for nuclear power in Europe, by developing nucl ...
(EAEC or Euratom) and
European Economic Community
The European Economic Community (EEC) was a regional organization created by the Treaty of Rome of 1957,Today the largely rewritten treaty continues in force as the ''Treaty on the functioning of the European Union'', as renamed by the Lisb ...
(EEC) in 1957.
The EEC, the more ambitious of the three, came to be known as the "Common Market". The UK first applied to join them in 1961, but this was vetoed by France.
A later application was successful, and the UK joined in 1973; two years later, the
first ever national referendum on continuing membership resulted in 67.2% approval, with a 64.62% turnout.
Political integration gained greater focus when the
Maastricht Treaty
The Treaty on European Union, commonly known as the Maastricht Treaty, is the foundation treaty of the European Union (EU). Concluded in 1992 between the then-twelve member states of the European Communities, it announced "a new stage in the ...
established the
European Union
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
(EU) in 1993, which incorporated (and after the
Treaty of Lisbon
The Treaty of Lisbon (initially known as the Reform Treaty) is an international agreement that amends the two treaties which form the constitutional basis of the European Union (EU). The Treaty of Lisbon, which was signed by the EU member sta ...
, succeeded) the European Communities.
Growing pressure for a referendum
Prior to the
2010 general election, the then
Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition
David Cameron
David William Donald Cameron (born 9 October 1966) is a British former politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016 and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2005 to 2016. He previously served as Leader o ...
promised a referendum on the
Lisbon Treaty
The Treaty of Lisbon (initially known as the Reform Treaty) is an international agreement that amends the two treaties which form the constitutional basis of the European Union (EU). The Treaty of Lisbon, which was signed by the EU member sta ...
, which he backtracked on after all EU countries had ratified the treaty before the election.
![David Cameron official](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/21/David_Cameron_official.jpg)
When they attended the May
2012 NATO summit meeting, UK Prime Minister
David Cameron
David William Donald Cameron (born 9 October 1966) is a British former politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016 and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2005 to 2016. He previously served as Leader o ...
,
Foreign Secretary
The secretary of state for foreign, Commonwealth and development affairs, known as the foreign secretary, is a minister of the Crown of the Government of the United Kingdom and head of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Seen as ...
William Hague
William is a male given name of Germanic origin.Hanks, Hardcastle and Hodges, ''Oxford Dictionary of First Names'', Oxford University Press, 2nd edition, , p. 276. It became very popular in the English language after the Norman conquest of Engl ...
and
Ed Llewellyn discussed the idea of using a European Union referendum as a concession to energise the
Eurosceptic
Euroscepticism, also spelled as Euroskepticism or EU-scepticism, is a political position involving criticism of the European Union (EU) and European integration. It ranges from those who oppose some EU institutions and policies, and seek reform ...
wing of the Conservative Party. In January 2013, Cameron delivered the
Bloomberg speech
The Bloomberg speech was an address on Britain's membership of the European Union, given in January 2013 by the then ( Conservative Party) Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron. Although presented while the Conservative-Liberal Dem ...
and promised that, should the Conservatives win a parliamentary majority at the
2015 general election, the
British government
ga, Rialtas a Shoilse gd, Riaghaltas a Mhòrachd
, image = HM Government logo.svg
, image_size = 220px
, image2 = Royal Coat of Arms of the United Kingdom (HM Government).svg
, image_size2 = 180px
, caption = Royal Arms
, date_es ...
would negotiate more favourable arrangements for continuing British membership of the EU, before holding a referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the EU. The Conservative Party published a draft EU Referendum Bill in May 2013, and outlined its plans for renegotiation followed by an in-out vote (i.e. a referendum giving options only of leaving and of remaining in under the current terms, or under new terms if these had become available), were the party to be re-elected in 2015. The draft Bill stated that the referendum had to be held no later than 31 December 2017.
The draft legislation was taken forward as a
Private member's bill
A private member's bill is a bill (proposed law) introduced into a legislature by a legislator who is not acting on behalf of the executive branch. The designation "private member's bill" is used in most Westminster system jurisdictions, in whi ...
by Conservative MP
James Wharton which was known as the
European Union (Referendum) Bill 2013
The European Union (EU) is a supranational continental political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has ...
. The bill's First Reading in the
House of Commons
The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. ...
took place on 19 June 2013. Cameron was said by a spokesperson to be "very pleased" and would ensure the Bill was given "the full support of the Conservative Party".
Regarding the ability of the bill to bind the UK Government in the
2015–20 Parliament (which indirectly, as a result of the referendum itself, proved to last only two years) to holding such a referendum, a parliamentary research paper noted that:
The Bill simply provides for a referendum on continued EU membership by the end of December 2017 and does not otherwise specify the timing, other than requiring the Secretary of State to bring forward orders by the end of 2016. ..If no party obtained a majority at the ext general election due in 2015 there might be some uncertainty about the passage of the orders in the next Parliament.
The bill received its Second Reading on 5 July 2013, passing by 304 votes to none after almost all
Labour
Labour or labor may refer to:
* Childbirth, the delivery of a baby
* Labour (human activity), or work
** Manual labour, physical work
** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer
** Organized labour and the labour ...
MPs and all
Liberal Democrat
Several political parties from around the world have been called the Liberal Democratic Party or Liberal Democrats. These parties usually follow a liberal democratic ideology.
Active parties
Former parties
See also
*Liberal democracy
*Lib ...
MPs abstained, cleared the Commons in November 2013, and was then introduced to the
House of Lords
The House of Lords, also known as the House of Peers, is the Bicameralism, upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Membership is by Life peer, appointment, Hereditary peer, heredity or Lords Spiritual, official function. Like the ...
in December 2013, where members voted to block the bill.
Conservative MP
Bob Neill then introduced an Alternative Referendum Bill to the Commons. After a debate on 17 October 2014, it passed to the
Public Bills Committee, but because the Commons failed to pass a
money resolution
Money is any item or verifiable record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts, such as taxes, in a particular country or socio-economic context. The primary functions which distinguish money are as ...
, the bill was unable to progress further before the
dissolution of parliament
The dissolution of a legislative assembly is the mandatory simultaneous resignation of all of its members, in anticipation that a successive legislative assembly will reconvene later with possibly different members. In a democracy, the new assemb ...
on 27 March 2015.
At the
European Parliament election in 2014, the
UK Independence Party
The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest par ...
(UKIP) secured more votes and more seats than any other party, the first time a party other than the Conservatives or Labour had topped a nationwide poll in 108 years, leaving the Conservatives in third place.
Under
Ed Miliband
Edward Samuel "Ed" Miliband (born 24 December 1969) is a British politician serving as Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero since 2021. He has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Doncaster North since 2005. Miliband ...
's leadership between 2010 and 2015, the Labour Party ruled out an in-out referendum unless and until a further transfer of powers from the UK to the EU were to be proposed. In their manifesto for the 2015 general election, the Liberal Democrats pledged to hold an in-out referendum only in the event of there being a change in the EU treaties. The UK Independence Party (UKIP), the
British National Party
The British National Party (BNP) is a far-right, fascist political party in the United Kingdom. It is headquartered in Wigton, Cumbria, and its leader is Adam Walker. A minor party, it has no elected representatives at any level of UK gover ...
(BNP), the
Green Party
A green party is a formally organized political party based on the principles of green politics, such as social justice, environmentalism and nonviolence.
Greens believe that these issues are inherently related to one another as a foundation ...
, the
Democratic Unionist Party
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is a unionist, loyalist, and national conservative political party in Northern Ireland. It was founded in 1971 during the Troubles by Ian Paisley, who led the party for the next 37 years. Currently led by J ...
and the
Respect Party
The Respect Party was a left-wing to far-left, socialist political party active in the United Kingdom between 2004 and 2016. At the height of its success in 2007, the party had one Member of Parliament (MP) in the House of Commons and nineteen ...
all supported the principle of a referendum.
When the Conservative Party won a majority of seats in the House of Commons at the 2015 general election, Cameron reiterated his party's
manifesto
A manifesto is a published declaration of the intentions, motives, or views of the issuer, be it an individual, group, political party or government. A manifesto usually accepts a previously published opinion or public consensus or promotes a ...
commitment to hold an in-out referendum on UK membership of the EU by the end of 2017, but only after "negotiating a new settlement for Britain in the EU".
Renegotiation before the referendum
In early 2014,
David Cameron
David William Donald Cameron (born 9 October 1966) is a British former politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016 and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2005 to 2016. He previously served as Leader o ...
outlined the changes he aimed to bring about in the EU and in the UK's relationship with it.
These were: additional immigration controls, especially for citizens of new EU member states; tougher immigration rules for present EU citizens; new powers for national parliaments collectively to veto proposed EU laws; new free-trade agreements and a reduction in bureaucracy for businesses; a lessening of the influence of the
European Court of Human Rights
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR or ECtHR), also known as the Strasbourg Court, is an international court of the Council of Europe which interprets the European Convention on Human Rights. The court hears applications alleging that a ...
on British police and courts; more power for individual member states, and less for the central EU; and abandonment of the EU notion of "ever closer union".
He intended to bring these about during a series of negotiations with other EU leaders and then, if re-elected, to announce a referendum.
In November that year, Cameron gave an update on the negotiations and further details of his aims.
The key demands made of the EU were: on economic governance, to recognise officially that
Eurozone
The euro area, commonly called eurozone (EZ), is a currency union of 19 member states of the European Union (EU) that have adopted the euro (€) as their primary currency and sole legal tender, and have thus fully implemented EMU policies ...
laws would not necessarily apply to non-Eurozone EU members and the latter would not have to bail out troubled Eurozone economies; on competitiveness, to expand the single market and to set a target for the reduction of bureaucracy for businesses; on sovereignty, for the UK to be legally exempted from "ever closer union" and for national parliaments to be able collectively to veto proposed EU laws; and, on immigration, for EU citizens going to the UK for work to be unable to claim social housing or in-work benefits until they had worked there for four years, and for them to be unable to send
child benefit
Child benefit or children's allowance is a social security payment which is distributed to the parents or guardians of children, teenagers and in some cases, young adults. A number of countries operate different versions of the program. In most co ...
payments overseas.
The outcome of the renegotiations was announced in February 2016.
The renegotiated terms were in addition to the United Kingdom's existing
opt-outs in the European Union
In general, the law of the European Union is valid in all of the twenty-seven European Union member states. However, occasionally member states negotiate certain opt-outs from legislation or treaties of the European Union, meaning they do not ...
and the
UK rebate
The UK rebate (or UK correction) was a financial mechanism that reduced the United Kingdom's contribution to the EU budget in effect since 1985. It was a complex calculation which equated to a reduction of approximately 66% of the UK's net contr ...
. The significance of the changes to the EU-UK agreement was contested and speculated upon, with none of the changes considered fundamental, but some considered important to many British people.
Some limits to in-work benefits for EU immigrants were agreed, but these would apply on a sliding scale for four years and would be for new immigrants only; before they could be applied, a country would have to get permission from the
European Council
The European Council (informally EUCO) is a collegiate body that defines the overall political direction and priorities of the European Union. It is composed of the heads of state or government of the EU member states, the President of the E ...
.
Child benefit payments could still be made overseas, but these would be linked to the cost of living in the other country.
On sovereignty, the UK was reassured that it would not be required to participate in "ever closer union"; these reassurances were "in line with existing EU law".
Cameron's demand to allow national parliaments to veto proposed EU laws was modified to allow national parliaments collectively to object to proposed EU laws, in which case the European Council would reconsider the proposal before itself deciding what to do.
On economic governance, anti-discrimination regulations for non-Eurozone members would be reinforced, but they would be unable to veto any legislation.
The final two areas covered were proposals to "exclude from the scope of free movement rights, third country nationals who had no prior lawful residence in a Member State before marrying a Union citizen"
and to make it easier for member states to deport EU nationals for public policy or public security reasons.
The extent to which the various parts of the agreement would be legally binding is complex; no part of the agreement itself changed EU law, but some parts could be enforceable in international law.
The EU had reportedly offered
David Cameron
David William Donald Cameron (born 9 October 1966) is a British former politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016 and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2005 to 2016. He previously served as Leader o ...
a so-called "emergency brake", which would have allowed the UK to withhold social benefits to new immigrants for the first four years after they arrived; this brake could have been applied for a period of seven years. That offer was still on the table at the time of the Brexit referendum, but expired when the vote determined that the UK would leave the EU. Cameron claimed that "he could have avoided Brexit had European leaders let him control migration", according to the ''
Financial Times
The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Nik ...
''. However,
Angela Merkel
Angela Dorothea Merkel (; ; born 17 July 1954) is a German former politician and scientist who served as Chancellor of Germany from 2005 to 2021. A member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), she previously served as Leader of the Oppo ...
said that the offer had not been made by the EU. Merkel stated in the German Parliament: "If you wish to have free access to the single market then you have to accept the fundamental European rights as well as obligations that come from it. This is as true for Great Britain as for anybody else."
Legislation
The planned referendum was included in the
Queen's Speech
A speech from the throne, or throne speech, is an event in certain monarchies in which the reigning sovereign, or a representative thereof, reads a prepared speech to members of the nation's legislature when a Legislative session, session is ...
on 27 May 2015. It was suggested at the time that Cameron was planning to hold the referendum in October 2016, but the European Union Referendum Act 2015, which authorised it, went before the House of Commons the following day, just three weeks after the election. On the bill's second reading on 9 June, members of the House of Commons voted by 544 to 53 in favour, endorsing the principle of holding a referendum, with only the
Scottish National Party
The Scottish National Party (SNP; sco, Scots National Pairty, gd, Pàrtaidh Nàiseanta na h-Alba ) is a Scottish nationalist and social democratic political party in Scotland. The SNP supports and campaigns for Scottish independence from ...
voting against. In contrast to the Labour Party's position prior to the 2015 general election under Miliband, acting Labour leader
Harriet Harman
Harriet Ruth Harman (born 30 July 1950) is a British politician and solicitor who has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for Camberwell and Peckham, formerly Peckham, since 1982. A member of the Labour Party, she has served in various Cabi ...
committed her party to supporting plans for an EU referendum by 2017.
To enable the referendum to take place, the European Union Referendum Act was passed by the Parliament of the United Kingdom. It extended to include and take legislative effect in
Gibraltar
)
, anthem = " God Save the King"
, song = " Gibraltar Anthem"
, image_map = Gibraltar location in Europe.svg
, map_alt = Location of Gibraltar in Europe
, map_caption = United Kingdom shown in pale green
, mapsize =
, image_map2 = Gib ...
, and received royal assent on 17 December 2015. The Act was, in turn, confirmed, enacted and implemented in Gibraltar by the
European Union (Referendum) Act 2016 (Gibraltar)
The European Union (Referendum) Act 2016 was an Act of the Gibraltar Parliament, which implements the United Kingdom's European Union Referendum Act 2015 in Gibraltar. It was the first time a referendum has been held in Gibraltar on the issue ...
, which was passed by the
Gibraltar Parliament
The Gibraltar Parliament is the legislature of the British overseas territory of Gibraltar. Between 1969 and 2006, it was called the Gibraltar House of Assembly.
Functions
The House of Assembly, set up under the 1969 constitution, was a uni ...
and entered into law upon receiving the assent of the
Governor of Gibraltar
The governor of Gibraltar is the representative of the British monarch in the British overseas territory of Gibraltar. The governor is appointed by the monarch on the advice of the British government. The role of the governor is to act as the ...
on 28 January 2016.
The European Union Referendum Act required a referendum to be held on the question of the UK's continued membership of the European Union (EU) before the end of 2017. It did not contain any requirement for the UK Government to implement the results of the referendum. Instead, it was designed to gauge the electorate's opinion on EU membership. The referendums held in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in 1997 and 1998 are examples of this type, where opinion was tested before legislation was introduced.
The UK does not have constitutional provisions which would require the results of a referendum to be implemented, unlike, for example, the
Republic of Ireland
Ireland ( ga, Éire ), also known as the Republic of Ireland (), is a country in north-western Europe consisting of 26 of the 32 counties of the island of Ireland. The capital and largest city is Dublin, on the eastern side of the island. A ...
, where the circumstances in which a binding referendum should be held are set out in
its constitution. In contrast, the legislation that provided for the referendum held on AV in May 2011 would have implemented the new system of voting without further legislation, provided that the boundary changes also provided for in the
Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011
The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 (c. 1) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom that made provision for the holding of a referendum on whether to introduce the Alternative Vote system in all future general ele ...
were also implemented. In the event, there was a substantial majority against any change. The 1975 referendum was held after the re-negotiated terms of the UK's EC membership had been agreed by all EC Member States, and the terms set out in a command paper and agreed by both Houses. Following the 2016 referendum, the High Court confirmed that the result was not legally binding, owing to the constitutional principles of parliamentary sovereignty and representative democracy, and the legislation authorising the referendum did not contain clear words to the contrary.
Referendum question
![2016 EU Referendum Ballot Paper](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/2016_EU_Referendum_Ballot_Paper.svg)
Research by the Electoral Commission confirmed that its recommended question "was clear and straightforward for voters, and was the most neutral wording from the range of options ... considered and tested", citing responses to its consultation by a diverse range of consultees. The proposed question was accepted by the government in September 2015, shortly before the bill's third reading.
The question that appeared on ballot papers in the referendum under the
Act was:
with the responses to the question (to be marked with a single (X)):
and in
Welsh
Welsh may refer to:
Related to Wales
* Welsh, referring or related to Wales
* Welsh language, a Brittonic Celtic language spoken in Wales
* Welsh people
People
* Welsh (surname)
* Sometimes used as a synonym for the ancient Britons (Celtic peop ...
:
with the responses (to be marked with a single (X)):
Administration
Date
Prior to being officially announced, it was widely speculated that a June date for the referendum was a serious possibility. The First Ministers of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales co-signed a letter to Cameron on 3 February 2016 asking him not to hold the referendum in June, as devolved elections were scheduled to take place the previous month on 5 May. These elections had been postponed for a year to avoid a clash with the 2015 general election, after Westminster had implemented the
Fixed-term Parliament Act. Cameron refused this request, saying people were able to make up their own minds in multiple elections spaced at least six weeks from each other.
In February 2016, Cameron announced that the UK Government would formally recommend to the British people that the UK should remain a member of a reformed European Union and that the referendum would be held on 23 June, marking the official launch of the campaign. He also announced that Parliament would enact secondary legislation on 22 February relating to the European Union Referendum Act 2015. With the official launch, ministers of the UK Government were then free to campaign on either side of the argument in a rare exception to
Cabinet collective responsibility
Cabinet collective responsibility, also known as collective ministerial responsibility, is a constitutional convention in parliamentary systems that members of the cabinet must publicly support all governmental decisions made in Cabinet, even if ...
.
Eligibility to vote
The right to vote in the referendum in the United Kingdom is defined by the legislation as limited to residents of the United Kingdom who were either also
Commonwealth citizens under the
British Nationality Act 1948
The British Nationality Act 1948 was an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom on British nationality law which defined British nationality by creating the status of "Citizen of the United Kingdom and Colonies" (CUKC) as the sole national ci ...
(which include
British citizens
British nationality law prescribes the conditions under which a person is recognised as being a national of the United Kingdom. The six different classes of British nationality each have varying degrees of civil and political rights, due to the ...
and other British nationals), or those who were also
citizens of the Republic of Ireland, or both. Members of the
House of Lords
The House of Lords, also known as the House of Peers, is the Bicameralism, upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Membership is by Life peer, appointment, Hereditary peer, heredity or Lords Spiritual, official function. Like the ...
, who could not vote in general elections, were able to vote in the referendum. The electorate of 46,500,001 represented 70.8% of the population of 65,678,000 (
UK and
Gibraltar
)
, anthem = " God Save the King"
, song = " Gibraltar Anthem"
, image_map = Gibraltar location in Europe.svg
, map_alt = Location of Gibraltar in Europe
, map_caption = United Kingdom shown in pale green
, mapsize =
, image_map2 = Gib ...
). Other than the residents of Gibraltar, British Overseas Territories Citizens residing in the British Overseas Territories were unable to vote in the referendum.
Residents of the United Kingdom who were citizens of other EU countries were not allowed to vote unless they were citizens (or were also citizens) of the Republic of Ireland, of
Malta
Malta ( , , ), officially the Republic of Malta ( mt, Repubblika ta' Malta ), is an island country in the Mediterranean Sea. It consists of an archipelago, between Italy and Libya, and is often considered a part of Southern Europe. It lies ...
, or of the Republic of
Cyprus
Cyprus ; tr, Kıbrıs (), officially the Republic of Cyprus,, , lit: Republic of Cyprus is an island country located south of the Anatolian Peninsula in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Its continental position is disputed; while it is geo ...
.
The
Representation of the People Acts 1983 ''
(1983 c. 2)'' and
1985
The year 1985 was designated as the International Youth Year by the United Nations.
Events January
* January 1
** The Internet's Domain Name System is created.
** Greenland withdraws from the European Economic Community as a result of a ...
''
(1985 c. 50)'', as amended, also permit certain British citizens (but not other British nationals), who had once lived in the United Kingdom, but had since and in the meantime lived outside of the United Kingdom, but for a period of no more than 15 years, to vote.
Voting on the day of the referendum was from 0700 to 2200
BST (
WEST
West or Occident is one of the four cardinal directions or points of the compass. It is the opposite direction from east and is the direction in which the Sunset, Sun sets on the Earth.
Etymology
The word "west" is a Germanic languages, German ...
) (0700 to 2200
CEST CEST or cest may refer to:
* Central European Summer Time (UTC+2), daylight saving time observed in the central European time zone
* Cognitive-Experiential Self-Theory
* Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer, a subset of Magnetization transfer in ...
in Gibraltar) in some 41,000 polling stations staffed by over 100,000
poll workers. Each polling station was specified to have no more than 2,500 registered voters. Under the provisions of the
Representation of the People Act 2000
The Representation of the People Act 2000 (c.2) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom that changed the British electoral process in four minor amendments to the Representation of the People Act 1983:
* It removed most restrictions on ...
, postal ballots were also permitted in the referendum and were sent out to eligible voters some three weeks ahead of the vote (2 June 2016).
The minimum age for voters in the referendum was set to 18 years, in line with the Representation of the People Act, as amended. A House of Lords amendment proposing to lower the minimum age to 16 years was rejected.
The deadline to register to vote was initially midnight on 7 June 2016; however, this was extended by 48 hours owing to technical problems with the official registration website on 7 June, caused by unusually high web traffic. Some supporters of the Leave campaign, including the Conservative MP
Sir Gerald Howarth, criticised the government's decision to extend the deadline, alleging it gave Remain an advantage because many late registrants were young people who were considered to be more likely to vote for Remain. According to provisional figures from the Electoral Commission, almost 46.5 million people were eligible to vote.
Registration problems
Nottingham City Council
Nottingham City Council is the local authority for the unitary authority of Nottingham in Nottinghamshire, England. It consists of 55 councillors, representing a total of 20 wards, elected every four years. The council is led by David Mellen, of ...
emailed a
Vote Leave
Vote Leave was a campaigning organisation that supported a "Leave" vote in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. On 13 April 2016 it was designated by the Electoral Commission as the official campaign in favour of leavi ...
supporter to say that the council was unable to check whether the nationality that people stated on their voting registration form was true, and hence that they simply had to assume that the information that was submitted was, indeed, correct.
3,462 EU nationals were wrongly sent postal voting cards, due to an IT issue experienced by Xpress, an electoral software supplier to a number of councils. Xpress was initially unable to confirm the exact number of those affected. The matter was resolved by the issuance of a software patch which rendered the wrongly recorded electors ineligible to vote on 23 June.
Crown Dependencies
Residents of the
Crown Dependencies (which are not part of the United Kingdom), namely the
Isle of Man
)
, anthem = "O Land of Our Birth"
, image = Isle of Man by Sentinel-2.jpg
, image_map = Europe-Isle_of_Man.svg
, mapsize =
, map_alt = Location of the Isle of Man in Europe
, map_caption = Location of the Isle of Man (green)
in Europe ...
and the Bailiwicks of
Jersey
Jersey ( , ; nrf, Jèrri, label=Jèrriais ), officially the Bailiwick of Jersey (french: Bailliage de Jersey, links=no; Jèrriais: ), is an island country and self-governing Crown Dependencies, Crown Dependency near the coast of north-west F ...
and
Guernsey
Guernsey (; Guernésiais: ''Guernési''; french: Guernesey) is an island in the English Channel off the coast of Normandy that is part of the Bailiwick of Guernsey, a British Crown Dependency.
It is the second largest of the Channel Islands ...
, even if they were British citizens, were excluded from the referendum unless they were also previous residents of the United Kingdom (that is: England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland).
Some residents of the Isle of Man protested that they, as full British citizens under the British Nationality Act 1981 and living within the
British Islands
The British Islands is a term within the law of the United Kingdom which refers collectively to the following four polities:
* the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (formerly the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland); ...
, should also have been given the opportunity to vote in the referendum, as the Isle and the Bailiwicks, although not included as if they were part of the United Kingdom for the purpose of European Union (and
European Economic Area
The European Economic Area (EEA) was established via the ''Agreement on the European Economic Area'', an international agreement which enables the extension of the European Union's single market to member states of the European Free Trade Ass ...
(EEA)) membership (as is the case with Gibraltar), would also have been significantly affected by the outcome and impact of the referendum.
Campaign
![European Union - Brexit referendum](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/European_Union_-_Brexit_referendum_%22I%27m_in%22_sticker_on_a_green_Harrington_jacket.png)
In October 2015,
Britain Stronger in Europe
Britain Stronger in Europe (formally The In Campaign Limited) was an advocacy group which campaigned in favour of the United Kingdom's continued membership of the European Union in the 2016 British referendum. It was launched at the Old Truma ...
, a cross-party group campaigning for Britain to remain a member of the EU, was formed. There were two rival groups promoting British withdrawal from the EU that sought to become the official Leave campaign:
Leave.EU
Leave.EU was a political campaign group that was first established to support the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, June 2016 referendum. Founded in July 2015 as ...
(which was endorsed by most of
UKIP
The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest p ...
, including
Nigel Farage
Nigel Paul Farage (; born 3 April 1964) is a British broadcaster and former politician who was List of UK Independence Party leaders, Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and 2010 to 2016 and Brexit Party#Leaders, Lea ...
), and
Vote Leave
Vote Leave was a campaigning organisation that supported a "Leave" vote in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. On 13 April 2016 it was designated by the Electoral Commission as the official campaign in favour of leavi ...
(endorsed by Conservative Party Eurosceptics). In January 2016,
Nigel Farage
Nigel Paul Farage (; born 3 April 1964) is a British broadcaster and former politician who was List of UK Independence Party leaders, Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and 2010 to 2016 and Brexit Party#Leaders, Lea ...
and the Leave.EU campaign became part of the
Grassroots Out movement, which was borne out of infighting between Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigners. In April, the
Electoral Commission
An election commission is a body charged with overseeing the implementation of electioneering process of any country. The formal names of election commissions vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and may be styled an electoral commission, a c ...
announced that Britain Stronger in Europe and Vote Leave were to be designated as the official remain and leave campaigns respectively. This gave them the right to spend up to £7,000,000, a free mailshot, TV broadcasts and £600,000 in public funds. The UK Government's official position was to support the Remain campaign. Nevertheless, Cameron announced that Conservative Ministers and MPs were free to campaign in favour of remaining in the EU or leaving it, according to their conscience. This decision came after mounting pressure for a
free vote
A conscience vote or free vote is a type of vote in a legislative body where legislators are allowed to vote according to their own personal conscience rather than according to an official line set down by their political party. In a parliamentary ...
for ministers. In an exception to the usual rule of
cabinet collective responsibility
Cabinet collective responsibility, also known as collective ministerial responsibility, is a constitutional convention in parliamentary systems that members of the cabinet must publicly support all governmental decisions made in Cabinet, even if ...
, Cameron allowed cabinet ministers to campaign publicly for EU withdrawal. A Government-backed campaign was launched in April. On 16 June, all official national campaigning was suspended until 19 June following the
murder of Jo Cox
On 16 June 2016, Jo Cox, a British Labour Party politician and Member of Parliament (MP) for Batley and Spen, died after being shot and stabbed multiple times in Birstall, West Yorkshire. In November 2016, 53-year-old Thomas Alexander Mair w ...
.
After internal polls suggested that 85% of the UK population wanted more information about the referendum from the government, a leaflet was sent to every household in the UK. It contained details about why the government believed the UK should remain in the EU. This leaflet was criticised by those wanting to leave as giving the remain side an unfair advantage; it was also described as being inaccurate and a waste of taxpayers' money (it cost £9.3m in total).
In the week beginning on 16 May, the
Electoral Commission
An election commission is a body charged with overseeing the implementation of electioneering process of any country. The formal names of election commissions vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and may be styled an electoral commission, a c ...
sent a voting guide regarding the referendum to every household within the UK and Gibraltar to raise awareness of the upcoming referendum. The eight-page guide contained details on how to vote, as well as a sample of the actual ballot paper, and a whole page each was given to the campaign groups Britain Stronger in Europe and Vote Leave to present their case.
The Vote Leave campaign argued that if the UK left the EU, national
sovereignty
Sovereignty is the defining authority within individual consciousness, social construct, or territory. Sovereignty entails hierarchy within the state, as well as external autonomy for states. In any state, sovereignty is assigned to the perso ...
would be protected, immigration controls could be imposed, and the UK would be able to sign trade deals with the rest of the world. The UK would also be able to stop membership payments to the EU every week. The Britain Stronger in Europe campaign argued that leaving the European Union would damage the UK economy, and that the status of the UK as a world influence was hinged upon its membership.
Responses to the referendum campaign
Party policies
![UK MPs EU referendum voting intention 2016](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/UK_MPs_EU_referendum_voting_intention_2016.svg)
The tables list political parties with representation in the
House of Commons
The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. ...
or the
House of Lords
The House of Lords, also known as the House of Peers, is the Bicameralism, upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Membership is by Life peer, appointment, Hereditary peer, heredity or Lords Spiritual, official function. Like the ...
, the
European Parliament
The European Parliament (EP) is one of the legislative bodies of the European Union and one of its seven institutions. Together with the Council of the European Union (known as the Council and informally as the Council of Ministers), it adopts ...
, the
Scottish Parliament
The Scottish Parliament ( gd, Pàrlamaid na h-Alba ; sco, Scots Pairlament) is the devolved, unicameral legislature of Scotland. Located in the Holyrood area of the capital city, Edinburgh, it is frequently referred to by the metonym Holyro ...
, the
Northern Ireland Assembly
sco-ulster, Norlin Airlan Assemblie
, legislature = 7th Northern Ireland Assembly, Seventh Assembly
, coa_pic = File:NI_Assembly.svg
, coa_res = 250px
, house_type = Unicameralism, Unicameral
, hou ...
, the
Welsh Parliament
The Senedd (; ), officially known as the Welsh Parliament in English and () in Welsh, is the devolved, unicameral legislature of Wales. A democratically elected body, it makes laws for Wales, agrees certain taxes and scrutinises the Welsh Gove ...
, or the
Gibraltar Parliament
The Gibraltar Parliament is the legislature of the British overseas territory of Gibraltar. Between 1969 and 2006, it was called the Gibraltar House of Assembly.
Functions
The House of Assembly, set up under the 1969 constitution, was a uni ...
at the time of the referendum.
Great Britain
Northern Ireland
Gibraltar
Minor parties
Among minor parties, the
Socialist Labour Party, the
Communist Party of Britain
The Communist Party of Britain (CPB) is a communist party in Great Britain which emerged from a dispute between Eurocommunists and Marxist-Leninists in the Communist Party of Great Britain in 1988. It follows Marxist-Leninist theory and s ...
,
Britain First
Britain First is a far-right, British fascist political party formed in 2011 by former members of the British National Party (BNP). The group was founded by Jim Dowson, an anti-abortion and far-right campaigner.
* ''See also'': The organisa ...
, the
British National Party
The British National Party (BNP) is a far-right, fascist political party in the United Kingdom. It is headquartered in Wigton, Cumbria, and its leader is Adam Walker. A minor party, it has no elected representatives at any level of UK gover ...
(BNP),
Éirígí
Éirígí (), officially Éirígí For A New Republic, is a socialist republican political party in Ireland. The party name, , means "Arise" or "Rise Up" in Irish, and is a reference to the slogan "The great only appear great because we are on ...
,
Respect Party
The Respect Party was a left-wing to far-left, socialist political party active in the United Kingdom between 2004 and 2016. At the height of its success in 2007, the party had one Member of Parliament (MP) in the House of Commons and nineteen ...
,
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC), the
Social Democratic Party
The name Social Democratic Party or Social Democrats has been used by many political parties in various countries around the world. Such parties are most commonly aligned to social democracy as their political ideology.
Active parties
For ...
,
Liberal Party
The Liberal Party is any of many political parties around the world. The meaning of ''liberal'' varies around the world, ranging from liberal conservatism on the right to social liberalism on the left.
__TOC__ Active liberal parties
This is a li ...
, and
Independence from Europe, and the
Workers' Party of Ireland
The Workers' Party ( ga, Páirtí na nOibrithe) is a Marxist–Leninist political party active in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
It arose as the original Sinn Féin organisation founded in 1905 by Arthur Griffith, but took ...
, supported leaving the EU. The
Scottish Socialist Party
The Scottish Socialist Party (SSP; gd, Pàrtaidh Sòisealach na h-Alba; sco, Scots Socialist Pairtie) is a left-wing political party campaigning for the establishment of an independent socialist Scotland.
The party was founded in 1998. It c ...
(SSP),
Left Unity and
Mebyon Kernow
Mebyon Kernow – The Party for Cornwall (, MK; Cornish for ''Sons of Cornwall'') is a Cornish nationalist, centre-left political party in Cornwall, in southwestern Britain. It currently has five elected councillors on Cornwall Council, and s ...
supported remaining in the EU. The
Socialist Party of Great Britain
The Socialist Party of Great Britain (SPGB) is a socialist political party in the United Kingdom. Founded in 1904 as a split from the Social Democratic Federation (SDF), it advocates using the ballot box for revolutionary purposes and oppos ...
supported neither leave nor remain and the
Women's Equality Party
The Women's Equality Party (WEP) is a feminist political party set up in the United Kingdom in 2015. The idea was conceived by Catherine Mayer and Sandi Toksvig at the Women of the World Festival, when they concluded that there was a need for ...
had no official position on the issue.
Cabinet ministers
The
Cabinet of the United Kingdom
The Cabinet of the United Kingdom is the senior decision-making body of His Majesty's Government. A committee of the Privy Council, it is chaired by the prime minister and its members include secretaries of state and other senior ministers.
T ...
is a body responsible for making decisions on policy and organising
governmental departments; it is chaired by the Prime Minister and contains most of the government's ministerial heads. Following the announcement of the referendum in February, 23 of the 30 Cabinet ministers (including attendees) supported the UK staying in the EU.
Iain Duncan Smith
Sir George Iain Duncan Smith (born George Ian Duncan Smith; 9 April 1954), often referred to by his initials IDS, is a British politician who served as Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from 2001 to 2003. He was S ...
, in favour of leaving, resigned on 19 March and was replaced by
Stephen Crabb who was in favour of remaining.
Crabb was already a cabinet member, as the
Secretary of State for Wales
The secretary of state for Wales ( cy, ysgrifennydd gwladol Cymru), also referred to as the Welsh secretary, is a secretary of state in the Government of the United Kingdom, with responsibility for the Wales Office. The incumbent is a member ...
, and his replacement,
Alun Cairns
Alun Hugh Cairns (born 30 July 1970) is a Welsh Conservative Party politician serving as the member of Parliament (MP) for Vale of Glamorgan since 2010. He served as Secretary of State for Wales from 2016 to 2019.
He was previously a membe ...
, was in favour of remaining, bringing the total number of pro-remain Cabinet members to 25.
Business
Various UK multinationals have stated that they would not like the UK to leave the EU because of the uncertainty it would cause, such as
Shell
Shell may refer to:
Architecture and design
* Shell (structure), a thin structure
** Concrete shell, a thin shell of concrete, usually with no interior columns or exterior buttresses
** Thin-shell structure
Science Biology
* Seashell, a hard o ...
,
BT and
Vodafone
Vodafone Group Public limited company, plc () is a British Multinational corporation, multinational Telephone company, telecommunications company. Its registered office and Headquarters, global headquarters are in Newbury, Berkshire, England. It ...
, with some assessing the
pros and cons of Britain exiting. The banking sector was one of the most vocal advocating to stay in the EU, with the
British Bankers' Association
The British Bankers' Association (BBA) was a trade association for the UK banking and financial services sector. From 1 July 2017, it was merged into UK Finance.
It represented members from a wide range of banking and financial services. The asso ...
saying: "Businesses don't like that kind of uncertainty".
RBS
RBS may refer to:
Organisations Banking
* The Royal Bank of Scotland, a retail banking subsidiary of NatWest Group
** RBS International, the offshore banking arm of NatWest Group
Education
* Regent's Business School
* Rotterdam Business School
...
warned of potential damage to the economy. Furthermore,
HSBC
HSBC Holdings plc is a British multinational universal bank and financial services holding company. It is the largest bank in Europe by total assets ahead of BNP Paribas, with US$2.953 trillion as of December 2021. In 2021, HSBC had $10.8 tri ...
and foreign-based banks
JP Morgan
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is an American multinational investment bank and financial services holding company headquartered in New York City and incorporated in Delaware. As of 2022, JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States, the wo ...
and
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank AG (), sometimes referred to simply as Deutsche, is a German multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, and dual-listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the New York Sto ...
claim a Brexit might result in the banks' changing domicile. According to
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs () is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company. Founded in 1869, Goldman Sachs is headquartered at 200 West Street in Lower Manhattan, with regional headquarters in London, Warsaw, Bangalore, H ...
and the
City of London
The City of London is a city, ceremonial county and local government district that contains the historic centre and constitutes, alongside Canary Wharf, the primary central business district (CBD) of London. It constituted most of London fr ...
's policy chief, all such factors could impact on the City of London's present status as a European and global market leader in financial services. In February 2016, leaders of 36 of the
FTSE 100
The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, also called the FTSE 100 Index, FTSE 100, FTSE, or, informally, the "Footsie" , is a share index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with (in principle) the highest market ...
companies, including Shell,
BAE Systems
BAE Systems plc (BAE) is a British multinational arms, security, and aerospace company based in London, England. It is the largest defence contractor in Europe, and ranked the seventh-largest in the world based on applicable 2021 revenues. ...
, BT and
Rio Tinto Rio Tinto, meaning "red river", may refer to:
Businesses
* Rio Tinto (corporation), an Anglo-Australian multinational mining and resources corporation
** Rio Tinto Alcan, based in Canada
** Rio Tinto Borax in America
*** Rio Tinto Borax Mine, a ...
, officially supported staying in the EU. Moreover, 60% of the
Institute of Directors
The Institute of Directors (IoD) is a British professional organisation for company directors, senior business leaders and entrepreneurs. It is the UK's longest running organisation for professional leaders, having been founded in 1903 and incor ...
and the
EEF memberships supported staying.
Many UK-based businesses, including
Sainsbury's
J Sainsbury plc, trading as Sainsbury's, is the second largest chain of supermarkets in the United Kingdom, with a 14.6% share of UK supermarket sales.
Founded in 1869 by John James Sainsbury with a shop in Drury Lane, London, the company wa ...
, remained steadfastly neutral, concerned that taking sides in the divisive issue could lead to a backlash from customers.
Richard Branson
Sir Richard Charles Nicholas Branson (born 18 July 1950) is a British billionaire, entrepreneur, and business magnate. In the 1970s he founded the Virgin Group, which today controls more than 400 companies in various fields.
Branson expressed ...
stated that he was "very fearful" of the consequences of a UK exit from the EU.
Alan Sugar
Alan Michael Sugar, Baron Sugar (born 24 March 1947) is a British business magnate, media personality, author, politician and political adviser. In 1968, he started what would later become his largest business venture, consumer electronics com ...
expressed similar concern.
James Dyson
Sir James Dyson (born 2 May 1947) is a British inventor, industrial designer, farmer, and billionaire entrepreneur who founded Dyson Ltd. He is best known as the inventor of the dual cyclone bagless vacuum cleaner, which works on the princip ...
, founder of the
Dyson company, argued in June 2016 that the introduction of tariffs would be less damaging for British exporters than the appreciation of the pound against the Euro, arguing that, because Britain ran a 100 billion pound
trade deficit
The balance of trade, commercial balance, or net exports (sometimes symbolized as NX), is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period. Sometimes a distinction is made between a balance ...
with the EU, tariffs could represent a significant revenue source for the Treasury.
[Sir James Dyson: 'So if we leave the EU no one will trade with us? Cobblers...']
A. Pearson, ''The Daily Telegraph'' (London), 10 June 2016 Pointing out that languages, plugs and laws differ between EU member states, Dyson said that the 28-country bloc was not a
single market, and argued the fastest growing markets were outside the EU.
Engineering company
Rolls-Royce
Rolls-Royce (always hyphenated) may refer to:
* Rolls-Royce Limited, a British manufacturer of cars and later aero engines, founded in 1906, now defunct
Automobiles
* Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, the current car manufacturing company incorporated in ...
wrote to employees to say that it did not want the UK to leave the EU.
Surveys of large UK businesses showed a strong majority favoured the UK remaining in the EU.
Small and medium-sized UK businesses were more evenly split.
Polls of foreign businesses found that around half would be less likely to do business in the UK, while 1% would increase their investment in the UK. Two large car manufacturers,
Ford
Ford commonly refers to:
* Ford Motor Company, an automobile manufacturer founded by Henry Ford
* Ford (crossing), a shallow crossing on a river
Ford may also refer to:
Ford Motor Company
* Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company
* Ford F ...
and
BMW, warned in 2013 against Brexit, suggesting it would be "devastating" for the economy. Conversely, in 2015, some other manufacturing executives told Reuters that they would not shut their plants if the UK left the EU, although future investment might be put at risk. The CEO of
Vauxhall
Vauxhall ( ) is a district in South West London, part of the London Borough of Lambeth, England. Vauxhall was part of Surrey until 1889 when the County of London was created. Named after a medieval manor, "Fox Hall", it became well known for ...
stated that a Brexit would not materially affect its business. Foreign-based
Toyota
is a Japanese multinational automotive manufacturer headquartered in Toyota City, Aichi, Japan. It was founded by Kiichiro Toyoda and incorporated on . Toyota is one of the largest automobile manufacturers in the world, producing about 10 ...
CEO
Akio Toyoda
is a Japanese business executive and the current president of Toyota Motor Corporation. He is the great-grandson of the Japanese industrialist, Sakichi Toyoda, and the grandson of both the founder of Toyota Motors, Kiichiro Toyoda, and the found ...
confirmed that, whether or not Britain left the EU, Toyota would carry on manufacturing cars in Britain as they had done before.
Exchange rates and stock markets
In the week following conclusion of the
UK's renegotiation (and especially after
Boris Johnson
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (; born 19 June 1964) is a British politician, writer and journalist who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as F ...
announced that he would support the UK leaving), the pound fell to a seven-year low against the dollar and economists at
HSBC
HSBC Holdings plc is a British multinational universal bank and financial services holding company. It is the largest bank in Europe by total assets ahead of BNP Paribas, with US$2.953 trillion as of December 2021. In 2021, HSBC had $10.8 tri ...
warned that it could drop even more. At the same time, Daragh Maher, head of HSBC, suggested that if Sterling dropped in value so would the Euro. European banking analysts also cited Brexit concerns as the reason for the Euro's decline. Immediately after a poll in June 2016 showed that the Leave campaign was 10 points ahead, the pound dropped by a further one per cent. In the same month, it was announced that the value of goods exported from the UK in April had shown a month-on-month increase of 11.2%, "the biggest rise since records started in 1998".
Uncertainty over the referendum result, together with several other factors—US interest rates rising, low commodity prices, low Eurozone growth and concerns over emerging markets such as China—contributed to a high level of stock market volatility in January and February 2016. On 14 June, polls showing that a Brexit was more likely led to the FTSE 100 falling by 2%, losing £98 billion in value. After further polls suggested a move back towards Remain, the pound and the FTSE recovered.
On the day of the referendum, sterling hit a 2016 high of $1.5018 for £1 and the FTSE 100 also climbed to a 2016 high, as a new poll suggested a win for the Remain campaign. Initial results suggested a vote for 'Remain' and the value of the pound held its value. However, when the result for
Sunderland
Sunderland () is a port city in Tyne and Wear, England. It is the City of Sunderland's administrative centre and in the Historic counties of England, historic county of County of Durham, Durham. The city is from Newcastle-upon-Tyne and is on t ...
was announced, it indicated an unexpected swing to 'Leave'. Subsequent results appeared to confirm this swing and sterling fell in value to $1.3777, its lowest level since 1985. On the following Monday when the markets opened, £1 sterling fell to a new low of $1.32.
Muhammad Ali Nasir and Jamie Morgan two British economists differentiated and reflected on the weakness of the Sterling due to the weak external position of the UK's economy and the further role played by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit
They reported that during the week of the referendum, up to the declaration of the result, exchange rate depreciation deviated from the long-run trend by approximately 3.5 per cent, but the actual immediate effect on the exchange rate was an 8 per cent depreciation. Furthermore, that over the period from the announcement of the referendum, the exchange rate fluctuated markedly around its trend and one can also identify a larger effect based on the "wrong-footing" of markets at the point when the outcome was announced.
When the
London Stock Exchange
London Stock Exchange (LSE) is a stock exchange in the City of London, England, United Kingdom. , the total market value of all companies trading on LSE was £3.9 trillion. Its current premises are situated in Paternoster Square close to St Pau ...
opened on the morning of 24 June, the FTSE 100 fell from 6338.10 to 5806.13 in the first ten minutes of trading. It recovered to 6091.27 after a further 90 minutes, before further recovering to 6162.97 by the end of the day's trading. When the markets reopened the following Monday, the FTSE 100 showed a steady decline losing over 2% by mid-afternoon. Upon opening later on the Friday after the referendum, the US
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Dow Jones, or simply the Dow (), is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.
The DJIA is one of the oldest and most commonly followed equity inde ...
dropped nearly 450 points or about 2½% in less than half an hour. The
Associated Press
The Associated Press (AP) is an American non-profit news agency headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1846, it operates as a cooperative, unincorporated association. It produces news reports that are distributed to its members, U.S. newspa ...
called the sudden worldwide stock market decline a
stock market crash
A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock
In finance, stock (also capital stock) consists of all the shares by which ownership of a corporation or company is divided.Longman Business English Dictionary: "stock - ''especia ...
.
Investors in worldwide stock markets lost more than the equivalent of
US$
The United States dollar (symbol: $; code: USD; also abbreviated US$ or U.S. Dollar, to distinguish it from other dollar-denominated currencies; referred to as the dollar, U.S. dollar, American dollar, or colloquially buck) is the official ...
2 trillion on 24 June 2016, making it the worst single-day
loss in history, in absolute terms.
The market losses amounted to US$3 trillion by 27 June.
Sterling fell to a 31-year low against the US dollar. The UK's and the EU's sovereign debt
credit rating
A credit rating is an evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor (an individual, a business, company or a government), predicting their ability to pay back the debt, and an implicit forecast of the likelihood of the debtor defaulting.
...
s were also lowered to AA by
Standard & Poor's
S&P Global Ratings (previously Standard & Poor's and informally known as S&P) is an American credit rating agency (CRA) and a division of S&P Global that publishes financial research and analysis on stocks, bonds, and commodities. S&P is con ...
.
By mid-afternoon on 27 June 2016, sterling was at a 31-year low, having fallen 11% in two trading days, and the FTSE 100 had surrendered £85 billion; however, by 29 June it had recovered all its losses since the markets closed on polling day and the value of the pound had begun to rise.
European responses
The referendum was generally well-accepted by the European far right.
Marine Le Pen
Marion Anne Perrine "Marine" Le Pen (; born 5 August 1968) is a French lawyer and politician who ran for the French presidency in 2012, 2017, and 2022. A member of the National Rally (RN; previously the National Front, FN), she served as its pre ...
, the leader of the French
''Front national'', described the possibility of a Brexit as "like the
fall of the Berlin Wall
The fall of the Berlin Wall (german: Mauerfall) on 9 November 1989, during the Peaceful Revolution, was a pivotal event in world history which marked the destruction of the Berlin Wall and the figurative Iron Curtain and one of the series of eve ...
" and commented that "Brexit would be marvellous – extraordinary – for all European peoples who long for freedom".
A poll in France in April 2016 showed that 59% of the French people were in favour of Britain remaining in the EU.
Dutch politician
Geert Wilders
Geert Wilders (; born 6 September 1963) is a Dutch politician who has led the Party for Freedom (''Partij voor de Vrijheid'' – PVV) since he founded it in 2006. He is also the party's leader in the House of Representatives (''Tweede Kamer'' ...
, leader of the
Party for Freedom
The Party for Freedom ( nl, Partij voor de Vrijheid, PVV) is a nationalist, right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands.
Founded in 2006 as the successor to Geert Wilders' one-man faction in the House of Representatives, it won nine ...
, said that the
Netherlands
)
, anthem = ( en, "William of Nassau")
, image_map =
, map_caption =
, subdivision_type = Sovereign state
, subdivision_name = Kingdom of the Netherlands
, established_title = Before independence
, established_date = Spanish Netherl ...
should follow Britain's example: "Like in the 1940s, once again Britain could help liberate Europe from another totalitarian monster, this time called 'Brussels'. Again, we could be saved by the British."
Polish President
Andrzej Duda
Andrzej Sebastian Duda (; born 16 May 1972) is a Polish lawyer and politician who has served as president of Poland since 6 August 2015. Before becoming president, Andrzej Duda was a member of Polish Lower House (Sejm) from 2011 to 2014 and the ...
lent his support for the UK remaining within the EU. Moldovan Prime Minister
Pavel Filip
Pavel Filip (born 10 April 1966, Pănășești, Strășeni) is an engineer and politician from the Republic of Moldova. In 2001–2008 he was the director of the Joint-stock company "Bucuria" and in 2008–2011, general manager of Tutun-CTC joint ...
asked all citizens of Moldova living in the UK to speak to their British friends and convince them to vote for the UK to remain in the EU. Spanish foreign minister
José García-Margallo said Spain would demand control of
Gibraltar
)
, anthem = " God Save the King"
, song = " Gibraltar Anthem"
, image_map = Gibraltar location in Europe.svg
, map_alt = Location of Gibraltar in Europe
, map_caption = United Kingdom shown in pale green
, mapsize =
, image_map2 = Gib ...
the "very next day" after a British withdrawal from the EU. Margallo also threatened to close the border with Gibraltar if Britain left the EU.
Swedish foreign minister
Margot Wallström
Margot Elisabeth Wallström (; born 28 September 1954) is a Swedish politician of the Swedish Social Democratic Party who served as Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden and Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2014 to 2019 and Minister for Nordic Cooper ...
said on 11 June 2016 that if Britain left the EU, other countries would have referendums on whether to leave the EU, and that if Britain stayed in the EU, other countries would negotiate, ask and demand to have special treatment. Czech prime minister
Bohuslav Sobotka
Bohuslav Sobotka (; born 23 October 1971) is a Czech politician and lawyer who served as the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic from January 2014 to December 2017 and Leader of the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) from 2010 until his resig ...
suggested in February 2016 that the Czech Republic would start discussions on leaving the EU if the UK voted for an EU exit.
Non-European responses
International Monetary Fund
Christine Lagarde
Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde (; née Lallouette, ; born 1 January 1956) is a French politician and lawyer who has been serving as President of the European Central Bank since 2019. She previously served as the 11th managing director of the ...
, the managing director of the
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution, headquartered in Washington, D.C., consisting of 190 countries. Its stated mission is "working to foster globa ...
, warned in February 2016 that the uncertainty over the outcome of the referendum would be bad "in and of itself" for the British economy.
In response, Leave campaigner
Priti Patel
Priti Sushil Patel (born 29 March 1972) is a British politician who served as Home Secretary from 2019 to 2022. A member of the Conservative Party, she was Secretary of State for International Development from 2016 to 2017. Patel has been the Me ...
said a previous warning from the IMF regarding the
coalition government's deficit plan for the UK was proven incorrect and that the IMF "were wrong then and are wrong now".
United States
In October 2015,
United States Trade Representative
The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is an agency of the Federal government of the United States, United States federal government responsible for developing and promoting Trade policy of the United States, American trade ...
Michael Froman
Michael Braverman Goodman Froman (born August 20, 1962) is an American lawyer who served as the Office of the United States Trade Representative, U.S. Trade Representative from 2013 to 2017. He was Assistant to the President of the United States a ...
declared that the United States was not keen on pursuing a separate
free-trade agreement
A free-trade agreement (FTA) or treaty is an agreement according to international law to form a free-trade area between the cooperating states. There are two types of trade agreements: bilateral and multilateral. Bilateral trade agreements occur ...
(FTA) with Britain if it were to leave the EU, thus, according to ''
The Guardian
''The Guardian'' is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in 1821 as ''The Manchester Guardian'', and changed its name in 1959. Along with its sister papers ''The Observer'' and ''The Guardian Weekly'', ''The Guardian'' is part of the Gu ...
'' newspaper, undermining a key economic argument of proponents of those who say Britain would prosper on its own and be able to secure bilateral FTAs with trading partners. Also in October 2015, the
United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom
The United States ambassador to the United Kingdom (known formally as the ambassador of the United States to the Court of St James's) is the official representative of the president of the United States and the Federal government of the United S ...
Matthew Barzun
Matthew Winthrop Barzun (born October 23, 1970) is an American businessman, diplomat and political fundraiser who served as the United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom. He is a business executive who is known for his work with CNET Networks ...
said that UK participation in NATO and the EU made each group "better and stronger" and that, while the decision to remain or leave is a choice for the British people, it was in the US interest that it remain. In April 2016, eight former
US Secretaries of the Treasury, who had served both
Democratic and
Republican
Republican can refer to:
Political ideology
* An advocate of a republic, a type of government that is not a monarchy or dictatorship, and is usually associated with the rule of law.
** Republicanism, the ideology in support of republics or agains ...
presidents, urged Britain to remain in the EU.
In July 2015, President
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Obama was the first African-American president of the U ...
confirmed the long-standing US preference for the UK to remain in the EU. Obama said: "Having the UK in the EU gives us much greater confidence about the strength of the transatlantic union, and is part of the cornerstone of the institutions built following
World War II
World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposin ...
that has made the world safer and more prosperous. We want to make sure that the United Kingdom continues to have that influence." Some Conservative MPs accused U.S. President
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Obama was the first African-American president of the U ...
of interfering in the Brexit vote, with
Boris Johnson
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (; born 19 June 1964) is a British politician, writer and journalist who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as F ...
calling the intervention a "piece of outrageous and exorbitant hypocrisy" and UKIP leader
Nigel Farage
Nigel Paul Farage (; born 3 April 1964) is a British broadcaster and former politician who was List of UK Independence Party leaders, Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and 2010 to 2016 and Brexit Party#Leaders, Lea ...
accusing him of "monstrous interference", saying "You wouldn't expect the British Prime Minister to intervene in your presidential election, you wouldn't expect the Prime Minister to endorse one candidate or another."
Obama's intervention was criticised by Republican Senator
Ted Cruz
Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz (; born December 22, 1970) is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States Senator from Texas since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, Cruz served as Solicitor General of Texas from ...
as "a slap in the face of British self-determination as the president, typically, elevated an international organisation over the rights of a sovereign people", and stated that "Britain will be at the front of the line for a free trade deal with America", were Brexit to occur. More than 100 MPs from the Conservatives, Labour, UKIP and the
DUP wrote a letter to the U.S. ambassador in London asking President Obama not to intervene in the Brexit vote as it had "long been the established practice not to interfere in the domestic political affairs of our allies and we hope that this will continue to be the case." Two years later, one of Obama's former aides recounted that the public intervention was made following a request by Cameron.
Prior to the vote, Republican presidential candidate
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pe ...
anticipated that Britain would leave based on its concerns over migration, while Democratic presidential candidate
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...
hoped that Britain would remain in the EU to strengthen transatlantic co-operation.
Other states
In October 2015, Chinese President
Xi Jinping
Xi Jinping ( ; ; ; born 15 June 1953) is a Chinese politician who has served as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and thus as the paramount leader of China, s ...
declared his support for Britain remaining in the EU, saying "China hopes to see a prosperous Europe and a united EU, and hopes Britain, as an important member of the EU, can play an even more positive and constructive role in promoting the deepening development of China-EU ties". Chinese diplomats have stated "off the record" that the People's Republic sees the EU as a counterbalance to American economic power, and that an EU without Britain would mean a stronger United States.
In February 2016, the finance ministers from the
G20
The G20 or Group of Twenty is an intergovernmental forum comprising 19 countries and the European Union (EU). It works to address major issues related to the global economy, such as international financial stability, climate change mitigation, ...
major economies warned for the UK to leave the EU would lead to "a shock" in the global economy.
In May 2016, the Australian Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull
Malcolm Bligh Turnbull (born 24 October 1954) is an Australian former politician and businessman who served as the 29th prime minister of Australia from 2015 to 2018. He held office as leader of the Liberal Party of Australia.
Turnbull grad ...
said that Australia would prefer the UK to remain in the EU, but that it was a matter for the British people, and "whatever judgment they make, the relations between Britain and Australia will be very, very close".
Indonesian president
Joko Widodo
Joko Widodo (; born 21 June 1961), popularly known as Jokowi, is an Indonesian politician and businessman who is the 7th and current president of Indonesia. Elected in July 2014, he was the first Indonesian president not to come from an elite ...
stated during a European trip that he was not in favour of Brexit.
Sri Lankan Prime Minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe
Ranil Wickremesinghe ( si, රනිල් වික්රමසිංහ, ta, ரணில் விக்கிரமசிங்க; born 24 March 1949) is a Sri Lankan politician who is the current president of Sri Lanka since 21 July 2 ...
issued a statement of reasons why he was "very concerned" at the possibility of Brexit.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin; (born 7 October 1952) is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who holds the office of president of Russia. Putin has served continuously as president or prime minister since 1999: as prime min ...
said: "I want to say it is none of our business, it is the business of the people of the UK."
Maria Zakharova
Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova (russian: Мария Владимировна Захарова; born 24 December 1975) is the Director of the Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (Spokesw ...
, the official Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, said: "Russia has nothing to do with Brexit. We are not involved in this process in any way. We don't have any interest in it."
Economists
In November 2015, the Governor of the
Bank of England
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom and the model on which most modern central banks have been based. Established in 1694 to act as the English Government's banker, and still one of the bankers for the Government of ...
Mark Carney
Mark Joseph Carney (born March 16, 1965) is a Canadian economist and banker who served as the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and the governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. Since October 2020, he is vice chairman and ...
said that the Bank of England would do what was necessary to help the UK economy if the British people voted to leave the EU. In March 2016, Carney told MPs that an EU exit was the "biggest domestic risk" to the UK economy, but that remaining a member also carried risks, related to the
European Monetary Union
The economic and monetary union (EMU) of the European Union is a group of policies aimed at converging the economies of member states of the European Union at three stages.
There are three stages of the EMU, each of which consists of progr ...
, of which the UK is not a member. In May 2016, Carney said that a "technical recession" was one of the possible risks of the UK leaving the EU. However, Iain Duncan Smith said Carney's comment should be taken with "a pinch of salt", saying "all forecasts in the end are wrong".
In December 2015, the Bank of England published a report about the impact of immigration on wages. The report concluded that immigration put downward pressure on workers' wages, particularly low-skilled workers: a 10 percent point rise in the proportion of migrants working in low-skilled services drove down the average wages of low-skilled workers by about 2 percent.
[The impact of immigration on occupational wages: evidence from Britain]
S. Nickell and J. Saleheen, Staff Working Paper No. 574, Bank of England (2015) The 10 percentage point rise cited in the paper is larger than the entire rise observed since the 2004–06 period in the semi/unskilled services sector, which is about 7 percentage points.
In March 2016, Nobel prize-winning economist
Joseph Stiglitz
Joseph Eugene Stiglitz (; born February 9, 1943) is an American New Keynesian economist, a public policy analyst, and a full professor at Columbia University. He is a recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (2001) and the Joh ...
argued that he might reconsider his support for the UK remaining in the EU if the proposed
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) was a proposed trade agreement between the European Union and the United States, with the aim of promoting trade and multilateral economic growth. According to Karel de Gucht, European ...
(TTIP) were to be agreed to.
[EU referendum: UK could be better off leaving if TTIP passes, Joseph Stiglitz says]
H. Sheffield, ''The Independent'', 2 March 2016 Stiglitz warned that under the
investor-state dispute settlement
Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) or investment court system (ICS) is a system through which countries can be sued by foreign investors for certain state actions affecting foreign direct investment (FDI). This system most often takes the ...
provision in current drafts of the TTIP, governments risked being sued for loss of profits resulting from new regulations, including health and safety regulations to limit the use of
asbestos
Asbestos () is a naturally occurring fibrous silicate mineral. There are six types, all of which are composed of long and thin fibrous crystals, each fibre being composed of many microscopic "fibrils" that can be released into the atmosphere b ...
or tobacco.
The German economist
Clemens Fuest
Clemens Fuest (born 23 August 1968) is a German economist who has been President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and director of the Center for Economic Studies at the University of Munich (LMU) since 2016.
Career
Between 2008 and 201 ...
wrote that there was a liberal, free-trade bloc in the EU comprising the UK, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, Slovakia, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, controlling 32% of the votes in the European Council and standing in opposition to the ''
dirigiste
Dirigisme or dirigism () is an economic doctrine in which the state plays a strong directive (policies) role contrary to a merely regulatory interventionist role over a market economy. As an economic doctrine, dirigisme is the opposite of ''lai ...
'', protectionist policies favoured by France and its allies.
Germany with its 'social market' economy stands midway between the French ''dirigiste'' economic model and the British free-market economic model. From the German viewpoint, the existence of the liberal bloc allows Germany to play-off free-market Britain against ''dirigiste'' France, and that if Britain were to leave, the liberal bloc would be severely weakened, thereby allowing the French to take the EU into a much more ''dirigiste'' direction that would be unattractive from the standpoint of Berlin.
A study by Oxford Economics for the
Law Society of England and Wales
The Law Society of England and Wales (officially The Law Society) is the professional association that represents solicitors for the jurisdiction of England and Wales. It provides services and support to practising and training solicitors, as ...
has suggested that Brexit would have a particularly large negative impact on the UK financial services industry and the law firms that support it, which could cost the law sector as much as £1.7bn per annum by 2030. The Law Society's own report into the possible effects of Brexit notes that leaving the EU would be likely to reduce the role played by the UK as a centre for resolving disputes between foreign firms, whereas a potential loss of "
passporting" rights would require financial services firms to transfer departments responsible for regulatory oversight overseas.
World Pensions Forum director M. Nicolas J. Firzli has argued that the Brexit debate should be viewed within the broader context of
economic analysis of EU law and regulation in relation to
English common law
English law is the common law legal system of England and Wales, comprising mainly criminal law and civil law, each branch having its own courts and procedures.
Principal elements of English law
Although the common law has, historically, bee ...
, arguing: "Every year, the British Parliament is forced to pass tens of new statutes reflecting the latest EU directives coming from Brussels – a highly undemocratic process known as '
transposition'... Slowly but surely, these new laws dictated by EU commissars are conquering English common law, imposing upon UK businesses and citizens an ever-growing collection of fastidious regulations in every field".
Thiemo Fetzer, professor of economics from
University of Warwick
The University of Warwick ( ; abbreviated as ''Warw.'' in post-nominal letters) is a public research university on the outskirts of Coventry between the West Midlands (county), West Midlands and Warwickshire, England. The university was founded i ...
, analyzed the welfare reforms in the UK since 2000 and suggests that numerous austerity-induced welfare reforms from 2010 onwards have stopped contributing to mitigate income differences through transfer payments. This could be a key activating factor of anti-EU preferences that lie behind the development of economic grievances and the lack of support in a Remain victory.
Michael Jacobs, the current director of the Commission on Economic Justice at the Institute for Public Policy Research and Mariana Mazzucato, a professor in University College London in Economics of Innovation and Public Value have found that the Brexit campaign had the tendency to blame external forces for domestic economic problems and have argued that the problems within the economy wasn't due to 'unstoppable forces of globalisation' but rather the result of active political and business decisions. Instead, they claim that orthodox economic theory has guided poor economic policy such as investment and that has been the cause of problems within the British economy.
Institute for Fiscal Studies
In May 2016, the
Institute for Fiscal Studies
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) is an economic research institute based in London, United Kingdom, which specialises in UK taxation and public policy. It produces both academic and policy-related findings.
The institute's aim is to "a ...
said that an EU exit could mean two more years of austerity cuts as the government would have to make up for an estimated loss of £20 billion to £40 billion of tax revenue. The head of the IFS, Paul Johnson, said that the UK "could perfectly reasonably decide that we are willing to pay a bit of a price for leaving the EU and regaining some sovereignty and control over immigration and so on. That there would be some price though, I think is now almost beyond doubt."
Lawyers
A poll of lawyers conducted by a legal recruiter in late May 2016 suggested 57% of lawyers wanted to remain in the EU.
During a Treasury Committee shortly following the vote, economic experts generally agreed that the leave vote would be detrimental to the UK economy.
Michael Dougan
Michael Dougan is Professor of European Law and Jean Monnet Chair in EU Law, at the University of Liverpool. He came to the attention of social media users in the United Kingdom when a video of one of his lectures was uploaded to YouTube and other ...
, Professor of European Law and
Jean Monnet Chair
The Jean Monnet Programme, also known as the Jean Monnet Project or Jean Monnet Actions, is a European Union initiative to encourage teaching, research and reflection in the field of European integration studies in higher education institutions. I ...
in EU Law at the
University of Liverpool
, mottoeng = These days of peace foster learning
, established = 1881 – University College Liverpool1884 – affiliated to the federal Victoria Universityhttp://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukla/2004/4 University of Manchester Act 200 ...
and a constitutional lawyer, described the Leave campaign as "one of the most dishonest political campaigns this country
he UKhas ever seen", for using arguments based on constitutional law that he said were readily demonstrable as false.
NHS officials
Simon Stevens, head of NHS England, warned in May 2016 that a recession following a Brexit would be "very dangerous" for the National Health Service, saying that "when the British economy sneezes, the NHS catches a cold." Three-quarters of a sample of NHS leaders agreed that leaving the EU would have a negative effect on the NHS as a whole. In particular, eight out of 10 respondents felt that leaving the EU would have a negative impact on trusts' ability to recruit health and social care staff. In April 2016, a group of nearly 200 health professionals and researchers warned that the NHS would be in jeopardy if Britain left the European Union. The leave campaign reacted by saying more money would be available to be spent on the NHS if the UK left the EU.
British health charities
Guidelines by the
Charity Commission for England and Wales
, type = Non-ministerial government department
, seal =
, seal_caption =
, logo = Charity Commission for England and Wales logo.svg
, logo_caption =
, formed =
, preceding1 =
, d ...
that forbid political activity for registered charities have limited UK health organizations' commentary on EU poll, according to anonymous sources consulted by the Lancet.
According to
Simon Wessely
Sir Simon Charles Wessely (born 23 December 1956) is a British psychiatrist. He is Regius Professor of Psychiatry at the Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London and head of its department of psychological medicine, vice dean for academi ...
, head of psychological medicine at the Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London – neither a special revision of the guidelines from 7 March 2016, nor Cameron's encouragement have made health organisations, willing to speak out.
The
Genetic Alliance UK the
Royal College of Midwives
The Royal College of Midwives (RCM) is a British midwives organisation founded in 1881 by Louisa Hubbard and Zepherina Veitch. It has existed under its present name since 1947, and is the United Kingdom's only trade union or professional organis ...
the
and the Chief Executive of the
National Health Service
The National Health Service (NHS) is the umbrella term for the publicly funded healthcare systems of the United Kingdom (UK). Since 1948, they have been funded out of general taxation. There are three systems which are referred to using the " ...
had all stated pro-remain positions by early June 2016.
Fishing industry
A June 2016 survey of British fishermen found that 92% intended to vote to leave the EU.
The EU's
Common Fisheries Policy was mentioned as a central reason for their near-unanimity.
More than three-quarters believed that they would be able to land more fish, and 93% stated that leaving the EU would benefit the fishing industry.
Historians
In May 2016, more than 300 historians wrote in a joint letter to ''The Guardian'' that Britain could play a bigger role in the world as part of the EU. They said: "As historians of Britain and of Europe, we believe that Britain has had in the past, and will have in the future, an irreplaceable role to play in Europe." On the other hand, many historians argued in favour of leaving, seeing it as a return to self-sovereignty.
Exit plan competition
Following
David Cameron
David William Donald Cameron (born 9 October 1966) is a British former politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016 and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2005 to 2016. He previously served as Leader o ...
's announcement of an EU referendum, British
think tank
A think tank, or policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, technology, and culture. Most think tanks are non-governmenta ...
the
Institute of Economic Affairs
The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) is a right-wing pressure group and think tank registered as a UK charity Associated with the New Right, the IEA describes itself as an "educational research institute", and says that it seeks to "further t ...
(IEA) announced in July 2013 a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a "real possibility" following the 2015 general election.
Iain Mansfield, a
Cambridge graduate and
UKTI diplomat, submitted the winning thesis: ''A Blueprint for Britain: Openness not Isolation''.
Mansfield's submission focused on addressing both trade and regulatory issues with
EU member states
The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
as well as other
global trading partners.
Opinion polling
![UK EU referendum polling](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/UK_EU_referendum_polling.svg)
Opinion polls from 2010 onwards suggested the British public were relatively evenly divided on the question, with opposition to EU membership peaking in November 2012 at 56% compared with 30% who prefer to remain in, while in June 2015 those in favour of Britain remaining in the EU reached 43% versus those opposed 36%. The largest ever poll (of 20,000 people, in March 2014) showed the public evenly split on the issue, with 41% in favour of withdrawal, 41% in favour of membership, and 18% undecided. However, when asked how they would vote if Britain renegotiated the terms of its membership of the EU, and the UK Government stated that British interests had been satisfactorily protected, more than 50% indicated that they would vote for Britain to stay in.
Analysis of polling suggested that young voters tended to support remaining in the EU, whereas those older tend to support leaving, but there was no gender split in attitudes. In February 2016 YouGov also found that euroscepticism correlated with people of lower income and that "higher social grades are more clearly in favour of remaining in the EU", but noted that euroscepticism also had strongholds in "the more wealthy, Tory shires".
Scotland, Wales and many English urban areas with large student populations were more pro-EU.
[ Big business was broadly behind remaining in the EU, though the situation among smaller companies was less clear-cut. In polls of economists, lawyers, and scientists, clear majorities saw the UK's membership of the EU as beneficial.] On the day of the referendum, the bookmaker Ladbrokes
Ladbrokes Coral is a British gambling company founded in 1886. Its product offering includes sports betting, online casino, online poker, and online bingo. The business is split into two divisions, UK and International. UK operations are c ...
offered odds of 6/1 against the UK leaving the EU. Meanwhile, spread betting firm Spreadex
Spreadex is a British-based company that offers financial spread betting, sports spread betting, and sports fixed-odds betting.
History
Spreadex commenced trading in 1999 in Dunstable, Bedfordshire. It was founded by former City dealer Jonatha ...
offered a Leave Vote Share spread of 45–46, a Remain Vote Share spread of 53.5-54.5, and a Remain Binary Index spread of 80–84.7, where victory for Remain would makeup to 100 and a defeat 0.
On the day YouGov poll
Shortly after the polls closed at 10 pm on 23 June, the British polling company YouGov
YouGov is a British international Internet-based market research and data analytics firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. In 2007, it acquired US company Polimetrix, and sinc ...
released a poll conducted among almost 5,000 people on the day; it suggested a narrow lead for "Remain", which polled 52% with Leave polling 48%. It was later criticised for overestimating the margin of the "Remain" vote, when it became clear a few hours later that the UK had voted 51.9% to 48.1% in favour of leaving the European Union.
Issues
The number of jobs lost or gained by a withdrawal was a dominant issue; the BBC's outline of issues warned that a precise figure was difficult to find. The Leave campaign argued that a reduction in red tape associated with EU regulations would create more jobs and that small to medium-sized companies who trade domestically would be the biggest beneficiaries. Those arguing to remain in the EU, claimed that millions of jobs would be lost. The EU's importance as a trading partner and the outcome of its trade status if it left was a disputed issue. Whereas those wanting to stay cited that most of the UK's trade was made with the EU, those arguing to leave say that its trade was not as important as it used to be. Scenarios of the economic outlook for the country if it left the EU were generally negative. The United Kingdom also paid more into the EU budget than it received.
Citizens of EU countries, including the United Kingdom, have the right to travel, live and work within other EU countries, as free movement is one of the four founding principles of the EU. Campaigners for remaining said that EU immigration had positive impacts on the UK's economy, citing that the country's growth forecasts were partly based upon continued high levels of net immigration.[ The ]Office for Budget Responsibility
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally ...
also claimed that taxes from immigrants boost public funding.[ A recent academic paper suggests that migration from Eastern Europe put pressure on wage growth at the lower end of the wage distribution, while at the same time increasing pressures on public services and housing. The Leave campaign believed reduced immigration would ease pressure in public services such as schools and hospitals, as well as giving British workers more jobs and higher wages.][ According to official ]Office for National Statistics
The Office for National Statistics (ONS; cy, Swyddfa Ystadegau Gwladol) is the executive office of the UK Statistics Authority, a non-ministerial department which reports directly to the UK Parliament.
Overview
The ONS is responsible for th ...
data, net migration in 2015 was 333,000, which was the second highest level on record, far above David Cameron's target of tens of thousands.[EU Referendum: Record number of migrants arrive in UK without jobs, as Boris Johnson accuses David Cameron of "deeply damaging" faith in democracy]
L. Hughes, ''The Daily Telegraph'' (London), 26 May 2016[Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: May 2016]
ONS, 26 May 2016 Net migration from the EU was 184,000. The figures also showed that 77,000 EU migrants who came to Britain were looking for work.
After the announcement had been made as to the outcome of the referendum, Rowena Mason, political correspondent for ''The Guardian'' offered the following assessment: "Polling suggests discontent with the scale of migration to the UK has been the biggest factor pushing Britons to vote out, with the contest turning into a referendum on whether people are happy to accept free movement in return for free trade." A columnist for ''The Times
''The Times'' is a British daily national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title ''The Daily Universal Register'', adopting its current name on 1 January 1788. ''The Times'' and its sister paper ''The Sunday Times'' (fou ...
'', Philip Collins, went a step further in his analysis: "This was a referendum about immigration disguised as a referendum about the European Union."
The Conservative MEP (Member of the European Parliament
A Member of the European Parliament (MEP) is a person who has been elected to serve as a popular representative in the European Parliament.
When the European Parliament (then known as the Common Assembly of the ECSC) first met in 1952, its ...
) representing South East England, Daniel Hannan
Daniel John Hannan, Baron Hannan of Kingsclere (born 1 September 1971) is a British writer, journalist and former politician serving as an adviser to the Board of Trade since 2020. He is the founding president of the Initiative for Free Trade ...
, predicted on the BBC #REDIRECT BBC #REDIRECT BBC
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'' that the level of immigration would remain high after Brexit. "Frankly, if people watching think that they have voted and there is now going to be zero immigration from the EU, they are going to be disappointed. ... you will look in vain for anything that the Leave campaign said at any point that ever suggested there would ever be any kind of border closure or drawing up of the drawbridge."
The EU had offered
a so-called "emergency brake" which would have allowed the UK to withhold social benefits to new immigrants for the first four years after they arrived; this brake could have been applied for a period of seven years." That offer was still on the table at the time of the Brexit referendum, but expired when the vote determined that the UK would leave the EU.
The possibility that the UK's smaller constituent countries could vote to remain within the EU but find themselves withdrawn from the EU led to discussion about the risk to the unity of the United Kingdom. Scotland's First Minister,
, made it clear that she believed that a second independence referendum would "almost certainly" be demanded by Scots if the UK voted to leave the EU but Scotland did not. The
but the UK votes to leave, there will be a... constitutional crisis. The UK cannot possibly continue in its present form if England votes to leave and everyone else votes to stay".
There was concern that the
(TTIP), a proposed trade agreement between the United States and the EU, would be a threat to the public services of EU member states.
, on the Remain side, said that he pledged to veto TTIP in Government.
, on the Leave side, said that the UK could not veto TTIP because trade pacts were decided by
.
There was debate over the extent to which the European Union membership aided security and defence in comparison to the UK's membership of
and the United Nations. Security concerns over the union's free movement policy were raised too, because people with EU passports were unlikely to receive detailed checks at border control.
. Reluctance to have Conservative Party members argue against one another has seen some debates split, with Leave and Remain candidates interviewed separately.
''
arguing for a leave vote. The ''
.
presented four interviews ahead of the referendum. The interviewees were
on 6, 8, 10 and 17 May, respectively.
The scheduled debates and question sessions included a number of question and answer sessions with various campaigners.
.
in front of an audience of 6,000. The audience was split evenly between both sides.
appeared for Remain. Leave was represented by the same trio as the ITV debate on 9 June (Johnson, Leadsom and Stuart). ''Europe: The Final Debate with
.
Voting took place from 0700 BST (WEST) until 2200 BST (Same hours CEST in Gibraltar) in 41,000 polling stations across 382 voting areas, with each polling station limited to a maximum of 2,500 voters.
The referendum was held across all four countries of the United Kingdom, as well as in Gibraltar, as a single majority vote. The 382 voting areas were grouped into twelve regional counts and there was separate declarations for each of the regional counts.
In England, as happened in the
were used as the local voting areas and the returns of these then fed into nine
counts. In Scotland the local voting areas were the
which then fed their results into the Scottish national count, and in Wales the
were their local voting areas before the results were then fed into the Welsh national count. Northern Ireland, as was the case in the AV referendum, was a single voting and national count area although local totals by Westminster parliamentary constituency areas were announced.
Gibraltar was a single voting area, but as Gibraltar was to be treated and included as if it were a part of South West England, its results was included together with the South West England regional count.