The Case for Impeachment
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''The Case for Impeachment'' is a non-fiction book by
American University The American University (AU or American) is a private federally chartered research university in Washington, D.C. Its main campus spans 90 acres (36 ha) on Ward Circle, mostly in the Spring Valley neighborhood of Northwest D.C. AU was charte ...
Distinguished Professor of History
Allan Lichtman Allan Jay Lichtman (; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973. Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model, which he created with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Kei ...
arguing for the impeachment of Donald Trump. It was published on April 18, 2017, by
Dey Street Books HarperCollins Publishers LLC is one of the Big Five English-language publishing companies, alongside Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, Hachette, and Macmillan. The company is headquartered in New York City and is a subsidiary of News C ...
, an imprint of
HarperCollins HarperCollins Publishers LLC is one of the Big Five English-language publishing companies, alongside Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, Hachette, and Macmillan. The company is headquartered in New York City and is a subsidiary of News Cor ...
. Lichtman predicted to ''
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'' that after ascending to the presidency, Trump would later be impeached from office. He developed this thesis into a set of multiple arguments for Trump's predicted impeachment. Lichtman argues in the book that Trump could face impeachment for reasons including: complicity of conspiracy with foreign governments,
crimes against humanity Crimes against humanity are widespread or systemic acts committed by or on behalf of a ''de facto'' authority, usually a state, that grossly violate human rights. Unlike war crimes, crimes against humanity do not have to take place within the ...
for the U.S. neglecting
global warming In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to E ...
, and violation of the
Foreign Emoluments Clause The Foreign Emoluments Clause is a provision in Article I, Section 9, Clause 8 of the United States Constitution, that prohibits the federal government from granting titles of nobility, and restricts members of the federal government from rece ...
of the constitution barring the president from taking personal monetary offerings from other governments. He provides the reader with an overview of
Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections The Russian government interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election with the goals of harming the campaign of Hillary Clinton, boosting the candidacy of Donald Trump, and increasing political and social discord in the United States. Acc ...
and
links between Trump associates and Russian officials Since Donald Trump was a 2016 candidate for the office of President of the United States, numerous links between Trump associates and Russian officials and spies have been discovered by the FBI, Special counsel, and several United States congr ...
, asserting such ties could be used in efforts to impeach President Trump. He uses the
Watergate scandal The Watergate scandal was a major political scandal in the United States involving the administration of President Richard Nixon from 1972 to 1974 that led to Nixon's resignation. The scandal stemmed from the Nixon administration's continual ...
as the backdrop to compare Trump's reactions to criticism with those of
Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a representative and senator from California and was ...
during Nixon's impeachment process. The author discusses assertions of sexual misconduct against Trump, and delves into some of his legal affairs stemming from them. Lichtman places the Donald Trump and Billy Bush recordings within a larger context of public degradation of women. The ''
Financial Times The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Nik ...
'' gave ''The Case for Impeachment'' a positive review, writing: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations." ''
The Washington Post ''The Washington Post'' (also known as the ''Post'' and, informally, ''WaPo'') is an American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C. It is the most widely circulated newspaper within the Washington metropolitan area and has a large nati ...
'' called it "striking to see the full argument unfold". ''New York Journal of Books'' recommended it as a resource, "if you are a member of Congress trying to grapple with all that this administration has wrought". '' The Hill'' gave the author praise, writing: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year."
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consulted law scholars who said Lichtman's impeachment prediction was unlikely, especially with a Republican-controlled
U.S. House of Representatives The United States House of Representatives, often referred to as the House of Representatives, the U.S. House, or simply the House, is the lower chamber of the United States Congress, with the Senate being the upper chamber. Together they ...
. However, Lichtman was proved to have been right after the 2018 midterms, when Trump was impeached not
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, but
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.


Contents summary

''The Case for Impeachment'' sets forth multiple arguments why President Trump's actions warrant impeachment from office. The author organizes the book into subsets of different grounds for impeachment. These include complicity or conspiracy with foreign governments. Lichtman explains to the reader the
Foreign Emoluments Clause The Foreign Emoluments Clause is a provision in Article I, Section 9, Clause 8 of the United States Constitution, that prohibits the federal government from granting titles of nobility, and restricts members of the federal government from rece ...
of the constitution, barring the president from taking personal monetary offerings from other governments. The author contends impeachment could be brought for actions by the president intended to benefit himself financially based on
inside information Insider trading is the trading of a public company's stock or other securities (such as bonds or stock options) based on material, nonpublic information about the company. In various countries, some kinds of trading based on insider informatio ...
about economic dealings. Lichtman observes the president has not garnered knowledge from a study of earlier key events in U.S. politics: "A president who seems to have learned nothing from history is abusing and violating the public trust and setting the stage for a myriad of impeachable offenses." Lichtman compares and contrasts Trump's actions with the Impeachment of Richard Nixon stemming from the
Watergate scandal The Watergate scandal was a major political scandal in the United States involving the administration of President Richard Nixon from 1972 to 1974 that led to Nixon's resignation. The scandal stemmed from the Nixon administration's continual ...
. Discussion of prior impeachment proceedings for presidents
Andrew Johnson Andrew Johnson (December 29, 1808July 31, 1875) was the 17th president of the United States, serving from 1865 to 1869. He assumed the presidency as he was vice president at the time of the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. Johnson was a Dem ...
and
Bill Clinton William Jefferson Clinton ( né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. He previously served as governor of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981 and agai ...
are placed within historical context, and the book makes comparisons between Trump and
Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon (January 9, 1913April 22, 1994) was the 37th president of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a representative and senator from California and was ...
. The author writes that Trump's decisions threaten American values: "Even early in his presidency, Donald Trump exhibits the same tendencies that led Nixon to violate the most basic standards of morality and threaten the foundations of our democracy." Lichtman argues that Trump's failure to learn from Nixon's negative example will harm his presidency, noting: "They also shared a compulsion to deflect blame, and they were riddled with insecurities." He criticizes what he documents as Trump's disregard for veracity: "Neither man allowed the law, the truth, the free press, or the potential for collateral damage to others to impede their personal agendas." Lichtman feels Trump and Nixon's potential political success can be viewed as stifled by a perceived need for covert decision making devoid of critical viewpoints: "They obsessed over secrecy and thirsted for control without dissent." The author provides an overview of actions taken by Trump before his presidency that could also lead to his downfall, including possible violations of the
Fair Housing Act The Civil Rights Act of 1968 () is a landmark law in the United States signed into law by United States President Lyndon B. Johnson during the King assassination riots. Titles II through VII comprise the Indian Civil Rights Act, which applie ...
, the operations of
Trump University Trump University (also known as the Trump Wealth Institute and Trump Entrepreneur Initiative LLC) was an American company that ran a real estate training program from 2005 until 2010. It was owned and operated by The Trump Organization. A sep ...
, and donations or lack thereof related to the Donald J. Trump Foundation. With regard to the Foreign Emoluments Clause, the author outlines for the reader the basis for impeachment with discussion of Trump and Trump family debt, trademark negotiations with China, and financial transactions in the Philippines, arguing these obligations could allow foreign powers control over the Trump Administration. In a proposal that the author acknowledges is unlikely, he submits the
International Criminal Court The International Criminal Court (ICC or ICCt) is an intergovernmental organization and international tribunal seated in The Hague, Netherlands. It is the first and only permanent international court with jurisdiction to prosecute individuals ...
could potentially prosecute the president for
crimes against humanity Crimes against humanity are widespread or systemic acts committed by or on behalf of a ''de facto'' authority, usually a state, that grossly violate human rights. Unlike war crimes, crimes against humanity do not have to take place within the ...
related to reneging on agreements to combat climate change. Legally this would not have significant standing on its own for impeachment in the U.S. however, the author suggests that it could provide the moral impetus for legislators to take further actions instead. ''The Case for Impeachment'' devotes a chapter to assertions of sexual misconduct made by women against Trump, and details some of Trump's legal affairs stemming from them. Lichtman describes Trump as driven by lust, and places the Donald Trump and Billy Bush recording within a larger context of public degradation of women. Events contained in the discussion of this topic are later contrasted with the fact that despite such details, Trump garnered a majority of white female voters' support compared to his opponent
Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...
. Lichtman takes the reader through
Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections The Russian government interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election with the goals of harming the campaign of Hillary Clinton, boosting the candidacy of Donald Trump, and increasing political and social discord in the United States. Acc ...
and links between Trump associates and Russian officials, and writes that President Trump: "stands a chance of becoming the first American president charged with treason or the failure to report treason by agents and associates". He likens the multiple investigations by the
Federal Bureau of Investigation The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is the domestic intelligence and security service of the United States and its principal federal law enforcement agency. Operating under the jurisdiction of the United States Department of Justice, ...
, the
House Intelligence Committee The United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI), also known as the House Intelligence Committee, is a committee of the United States House of Representatives, currently chaired by Adam Schiff. It is the primary committ ...
, and the
Senate Intelligence Committee The United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (sometimes referred to as the Intelligence Committee or SSCI) is dedicated to overseeing the United States Intelligence Community—the agencies and bureaus of the federal government of ...
into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election, and Trump associates' links a "
Sword of Damocles A sword is an edged, bladed weapon intended for manual cutting or thrusting. Its blade, longer than a knife or dagger, is attached to a hilt and can be straight or curved. A thrusting sword tends to have a straighter blade with a pointed tip ...
" awaiting Trump. The author concludes these investigations could have disastrous impact for the president: "Neither Republicans nor Democrats in Congress will tolerate a compromised or treacherous president. Impeachment and trial will be quick and decisive."


Research and composition

In September 2016, Lichtman used a forecast model he had developed earlier to predict that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election. Lichtman had published the book ''
The Keys to the White House ''The Keys to the White House'' is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapt ...
'' in 1996 about a system he created, inspired by earthquake research, to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. His model accurately forecast the
popular vote Popularity or social status is the quality of being well liked, admired or well known to a particular group. Popular may also refer to: In sociology * Popular culture * Popular fiction * Popular music * Popular science * Populace, the total ...
winner of all the US presidential elections from
1984 Events January * January 1 – The Bornean Sultanate of Brunei gains full independence from the United Kingdom, having become a British protectorate in 1888. * January 7 – Brunei becomes the sixth member of the Association of Southeast A ...
to
2012 File:2012 Events Collage V3.png, From left, clockwise: The passenger cruise ship Costa Concordia lies capsized after the Costa Concordia disaster; Damage to Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey as a result of Hurricane Sandy; People gather ...
. Lichtman shared his 2016 election prediction in September in interviews with ''
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'' and ''
Morning Joe ''Morning Joe'' is an American morning news and liberal talk show, airing weekdays from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time Zone, Eastern Time on the cable news channel MSNBC. It features former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough r ...
'' on
MSNBC MSNBC (originally the Microsoft National Broadcasting Company) is an American news-based pay television cable channel. It is owned by NBCUniversala subsidiary of Comcast. Headquartered in New York City, it provides news coverage and political ...
. After his 2016 election prediction was borne out, President-elect Trump sent Lichtman a letter of thanks, writing: "Professor – Congrats – good call." On November 11, 2016, three days after Trump won the 2016 US presidential election, Lichtman reiterated to ''The Washington Post'' another prediction he had made in September 2016 – that Trump would be impeached as president. He predicted this reasoning that a Republican controlled US Congress would rather have a more stable
Mike Pence Michael Richard Pence (born June 7, 1959) is an American politician who served as the 48th vice president of the United States from 2017 to 2021 under President Donald Trump. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the 50th ...
elevated from
Vice President of the United States The vice president of the United States (VPOTUS) is the second-highest officer in the executive branch of the U.S. federal government, after the president of the United States, and ranks first in the presidential line of succession. The vice ...
to the presidency. He explained to ''The Washington Post'': "They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence – an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican." Lichtman elaborated on the likelihood of his impeachment assessment: "I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook." Lichtman was engaged in writing the book in February 2017. His representative from
HarperCollins HarperCollins Publishers LLC is one of the Big Five English-language publishing companies, alongside Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, Hachette, and Macmillan. The company is headquartered in New York City and is a subsidiary of News Cor ...
publishers told ''
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'' magazine that Lichtman's thesis focused on: "not a question of ''if'' President Trump will be impeached, but a question of ''when''". During the writing process, Lichtman focused his efforts on outlining a thesis explaining why Trump was vulnerable to being removed from office, due to concerns about
links between Trump associates and Russian officials Since Donald Trump was a 2016 candidate for the office of President of the United States, numerous links between Trump associates and Russian officials and spies have been discovered by the FBI, Special counsel, and several United States congr ...
, and possible conflicts of interest tied to his global financial dealings. Whereas his September 2016 prediction of a Trump win in the US presidential election was based on a tested prediction model, his basis for the impeachment thesis was more of a qualitative analysis. Lichtman explained to Steve Scully of
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his reason for writing the book, "I wrote it as a deep historical analysis for the history of the impeachment process prior to the presidency. I wrote it so people could arm themselves with the knowledge of when Trump might have crossed the line to begin impeachment." In an interview with '' GQ'' magazine, Lichtman explained his thought process for predicting a Trump impeachment: "it is based on a deep study of history, including Trump's parallels to his impeached predecessors; a study of the process of impeachment; a study of Trump's vulnerabilities". He explained why he chose to write the book at this particular point, emphasizing it was to provide a guide for the public, and "because impeachment is a political process that occurs outside of the courts. It is responsive to the people, and if impeachment is going to take place, it will be because the American people demand it." Lichtman said because there were many potential unlawful activities, "I believe he is more vulnerable than any early president in the history of the nation."


Release and reception

Prior to finishing the book, Lichtman had a contract with
Dey Street Books HarperCollins Publishers LLC is one of the Big Five English-language publishing companies, alongside Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, Hachette, and Macmillan. The company is headquartered in New York City and is a subsidiary of News C ...
to publish it in the US with a publication date of April 18, 2017. On March 3, 2017, the publisher William Collins bought the rights to publish and sell the book in the UK and
Commonwealth A commonwealth is a traditional English term for a political community founded for the common good. Historically, it has been synonymous with "republic". The noun "commonwealth", meaning "public welfare, general good or advantage", dates from the ...
excluding Canada also for release in April. The contract was reported as being a "significant deal". ''The Case for Impeachment'' was first published in hardcover format on April 18, 2017, in the US. It was also released in
e-book An ebook (short for electronic book), also known as an e-book or eBook, is a book publication made available in digital form, consisting of text, images, or both, readable on the flat-panel display of computers or other electronic devices. Alt ...
and
audiobook An audiobook (or a talking book) is a recording of a book or other work being read out loud. A reading of the complete text is described as "unabridged", while readings of shorter versions are abridgements. Spoken audio has been available in sc ...
formats. The UK Commonwealth edition was published in
London London is the capital and largest city of England and the United Kingdom, with a population of just under 9 million. It stands on the River Thames in south-east England at the head of a estuary down to the North Sea, and has been a majo ...
. Within the first seven weeks after the book was first published, 10,000 copies were purchased for sale. ''
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'' journalist Carlos Lozada wrote in a review that on reading the book, it was "striking to see the full argument unfold and realize that you don't have to be a zealot to imagine some version of it happening". He concluded: "Lichtman's case for impeachment is plausible, certainly, but it is far stronger as an argument for why Americans never should have elected Trump in the first place. Yet we did. So it may not be too soon for this book, after all. It may be too late." Joy Lo Dico reviewed the book for the ''
London Evening Standard The ''Evening Standard'', formerly ''The Standard'' (1827–1904), also known as the ''London Evening Standard'', is a local free daily newspaper in London, England, published Monday to Friday in tabloid format. In October 2009, after be ...
'' writing: "His argument races through 200 pages, with steam for more." ''New York Journal of Books'' contributor Basil Smilke Jr. reviewed the book favorably, writing: "''The Case for Impeachment'' is a good backdrop for conversations that will likely remain a part of our national dialogue for some time – or if you are a member of Congress trying to grapple with all that this administration has wrought." '' AM Joy'' host
Joy-Ann Reid Joy-Ann M. Lomena-Reid (born December 8, 1968), known professionally as Joy Reid, is an American cable television host, MSNBC national correspondent, liberal political commentator, and author. She hosted the weekly MSNBC morning show, ''AM Joy' ...
said it was a "fascinating book," particularly because Lichtman had been one of the only prognosticators to correctly predict Trump would win the 2016 election.
Joe Scarborough Charles Joseph Scarborough (; born April 9, 1963) is an American television host, attorney, political commentator, and former politician who is the co-host of '' Morning Joe'' on MSNBC with his wife Mika Brzezinski. He previously hosted ''Scarbo ...
on ''
Morning Joe ''Morning Joe'' is an American morning news and liberal talk show, airing weekdays from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time Zone, Eastern Time on the cable news channel MSNBC. It features former Republican Congressman Joe Scarborough r ...
'' called the book "liberal catnip". Writing for the ''
Financial Times The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Nik ...
'', Edward Luce gave the book a positive review, concluding: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations. The US system takes a long time to gather speed. Once it does, it can be hard to stop." Brent Budowsky reviewed the book for '' The Hill'' and praised it, writing: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year." He agreed with the premise that the book should start a wider debate in the public: "I am suggesting that Professor Lichtman is right: America should now begin a serious debate about how far is too for the leader of the land of the free and the home of the brave."
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interviewed academics including constitutional law expert and resource for the U.S. House Judiciary Committee in the
impeachment of Bill Clinton Bill Clinton, the List of Presidents of the United States, 42nd president of the United States, was Federal impeachment in the United States, impeached by the United States House of Representatives of the 105th United States Congress on Decem ...
, Susan Low Bloch, who were skeptical of some of the book's arguments. Bloch opined that impeachment was not as easy as was thought: "You are undoing a national election, and I can't think of anything more serious politically than undoing an election. Whether you like Trump or not, he's now the president until he's done something impeachable – which he hasn't, so far as we know."


Aftermath

Lichtman was interviewed about his book after President Trump fired FBI director James Comey. He told ''
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'' this added to the evidence that Trump may have engaged in
obstruction of justice Obstruction of justice, in United States jurisdictions, is an act that involves unduly influencing, impeding, or otherwise interfering with the justice system, especially the legal and procedural tasks of prosecutors, investigators, or other gov ...
, and compared it to the
Watergate scandal The Watergate scandal was a major political scandal in the United States involving the administration of President Richard Nixon from 1972 to 1974 that led to Nixon's resignation. The scandal stemmed from the Nixon administration's continual ...
. He reminded '' The National'' that support for impeachment grew after Nixon fired his special prosecutor. Lichtman remarked to ''Salon'' that Comey's firing and
circumstantial evidence Circumstantial evidence is evidence that relies on an inference to connect it to a conclusion of fact—such as a fingerprint at the scene of a crime. By contrast, direct evidence supports the truth of an assertion directly—i.e., without need ...
of 2016 election coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia were reasons for impeachment. He explained
public opinion Public opinion is the collective opinion on a specific topic or voting intention relevant to a society. It is the people's views on matters affecting them. Etymology The term "public opinion" was derived from the French ', which was first use ...
in 1974 changed the viewpoints of Nixon's Republican comrades towards impeachment. Lichtman elaborated that impeachment was possible even with a Republican-controlled Congress. He pointed out impeachment grew likely if Republicans felt Trump hurt their election chances. Lichtman emphasized to '' AM Joy'', the first adage of politicians was to safeguard their careers. He commented to '' Mic'' and ''Newsweek'' the chance of impeachment grew after Comey's
Senate Intelligence Committee The United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (sometimes referred to as the Intelligence Committee or SSCI) is dedicated to overseeing the United States Intelligence Community—the agencies and bureaus of the federal government of ...
testimony about his memos, and said the evidence was stronger than that in the
impeachment of Bill Clinton Bill Clinton, the List of Presidents of the United States, 42nd president of the United States, was Federal impeachment in the United States, impeached by the United States House of Representatives of the 105th United States Congress on Decem ...
. Writing in '' The Hill'' Lichtman said that Paul Ryan's assertions that some of the president's actions could be excused because of ignorance or
naivety Naivety (also spelled naïvety), naiveness, or naïveté is the state of being naive. It refers to an apparent or actual lack of experience and sophistication, often describing a neglect of pragmatism in favor of moral idealism. A ''naïve'' may b ...
were indefensible, and would not stand. On December 18, 2019, the House of Representatives impeached Donald Trump for
abuse of power Abuse is the improper usage or treatment of a thing, often to unfairly or improperly gain benefit. Abuse can come in many forms, such as: physical or verbal maltreatment, injury, assault, violation, rape, unjust practices, crimes, or other t ...
and
obstruction of Congress Contempt of Congress is the act of obstructing the work of the United States Congress or one of its committees. Historically, the bribery of a U.S. senator or U.S. representative was considered contempt of Congress. In modern times, contempt of C ...
. Neither were reasons for impeachment he cited in the book. The Senate acquitted Trump on February 5, 2020.


See also

* Impeachment March * '' Trump: The Kremlin Candidate?''


References


Further reading

* * *
video at YouTube
* *


External links

* , dedicated website for book at www.thecaseforimpeachment.com * , by book publisher * {{DEFAULTSORT:Case for Impeachment, The 2017 in American politics 2017 non-fiction books Books about United States legal history Aftermath of the 2016 United States presidential election American political books Books about democracy Books about politics of the United States Books about the 2016 United States presidential election Books about Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections Books by Allan Lichtman Books about Donald Trump Presidential impeachment in the United States Criticism of Donald Trump Dey Street books