"Trends" is a
science fiction
Science fiction (sometimes shortened to Sci-Fi or SF) is a genre of speculative fiction which typically deals with imaginative and futuristic concepts such as advanced science and technology, space exploration, time travel, parallel unive ...
short story
A short story is a piece of prose fiction that typically can be read in one sitting and focuses on a self-contained incident or series of linked incidents, with the intent of evoking a single effect or mood. The short story is one of the oldest ...
by American writer
Isaac Asimov
yi, יצחק אזימאװ
, birth_date =
, birth_place = Petrovichi, Russian SFSR
, spouse =
, relatives =
, children = 2
, death_date =
, death_place = Manhattan, New York City, U.S.
, nationality = Russian (1920–1922)Soviet (192 ...
. It was first published in the July 1939 issue of ''
Astounding Science Fiction
''Analog Science Fiction and Fact'' is an American science fiction magazine published under various titles since 1930. Originally titled ''Astounding Stories of Super-Science'', the first issue was dated January 1930, published by William C ...
'' and was reprinted in ''
Great Science Fiction Stories About the Moon'' (1967) and ''
The Early Asimov
''The Early Asimov or, Eleven Years of Trying'' is a 1972 collection of short stories by Isaac Asimov. Each story is accompanied by commentary by the author, who gives details about his life and his literary achievements in the period in which he w ...
'' (1972).
"Trends" was the tenth story written by Asimov, the third to be published, and the first to appear in ''Astounding'', then the leading science fiction magazine.
[''The Early Asimov, Book One'', Isaac Asimov, 1972, p. 301.]
Origins
The story had its genesis in research Asimov was conducting on behalf of an academic writing a book on social resistance to technological change. Asimov was particularly struck by a series of articles by
Simon Newcomb
Simon Newcomb (March 12, 1835 – July 11, 1909) was a Canadian–American astronomer, applied mathematician, and autodidactic polymath. He served as Professor of Mathematics in the United States Navy and at Johns Hopkins University. Born in Nov ...
from the early 20th century arguing that
heavier-than-air flight
An aircraft is a vehicle that is able to fly by gaining support from the air. It counters the force of gravity by using either static lift or by using the dynamic lift of an airfoil, or in a few cases the downward thrust from jet engines. C ...
was physically impossible. If there had been resistance to earlier technological change, then Asimov reasoned that there might be social resistance to spaceflight, which was a notion he had never encountered before in a science fiction story. In December 1938, Asimov wrote a story, which he originally titled "Ad Astra", that included resistance to a proposed flight to the
Moon
The Moon is Earth's only natural satellite. It is the fifth largest satellite in the Solar System and the largest and most massive relative to its parent planet, with a diameter about one-quarter that of Earth (comparable to the width of ...
, submitting it to ''Astounding'' editor
John W. Campbell
John Wood Campbell Jr. (June 8, 1910 – July 11, 1971) was an American science fiction writer and editor. He was editor of ''Astounding Science Fiction'' (later called ''Analog Science Fiction and Fact'') from late 1937 until his death ...
on December 21, 1938. On December 29, 1938 Asimov received a letter from Campbell asking for a story conference. At the conference, Campbell said that he had never read a story that included resistance to space flight, that he liked the idea, and wanted Asimov to rewrite "Ad Astra" to make it central to the story. Asimov brought the revised version to Campbell on January 24, 1939, and Campbell accepted it, publishing it under the title "Trends".
Plot summary
''Trends'' is narrated by Clifford McKenny, looking back from the year 2008, who tells how his boss John Harman was preparing to fly a rocket, the ''Prometheus'', to the Moon in 1973. On July 14, 1973, the day before the scheduled flight, a newspaper called the ''Clarion'' denounces Harman as an impious blasphemer for daring to profane the heavens with his rocket ship, and warns that if the government won't stop him, "our enraged citizenry may have to take matters into their own hands". The head of the research institute Harman works for tries to dissuade him, arguing that popular opposition to his work is too strong. Harman refuses to listen.
On the day of the flight, after Harman enters the ''Prometheus'' and prepares to launch it, it explodes, killing 28 members of a mostly hostile crowd led by a powerful evangelist named Otis Eldredge. McKenny learns that his coworker Shelton, an Eldredge follower, sabotaged the rocket. The next day, a mob led by an injured Eldredge converges on the hospital where Harman is recuperating, and is barely kept from lynching him. Within a week, a bill passes Congress making rocket experiments a capital crime, and it becomes clear to McKenny that Harman will not be allowed to leave the hospital. He smuggles Harman out and takes him to his uncle's farm in Minnesota.
Within six months, Harman is preparing to try again. McKenny is sent to Chicago to collect the remainder of Harman's personal fortune, and to recruit a handful of trusted engineers. Over the next five years, Harman oversees the construction of the ''New Prometheus''. At the same time, Eldredge's followers gain control of Congress, which establishes the Federal Scientific Research Investigatory Bureau to scrutinize and control all scientific research. Eldredge's death in 1976 does not deter his followers, who continue to restrict scientific research. On March 25, 1978, the FSRIB issues the Easter Edict, forbidding all independent scientific research. A month later, Harman launches the ''New Prometheus'' and succeeds in making a
free return trajectory
In orbital mechanics, a free-return trajectory is a trajectory of a spacecraft traveling away from a primary body (for example, the Earth) where gravity due to a secondary body (for example, the Moon) causes the spacecraft to return to the primar ...
around the Moon. Harman lands across the Potomac from Washington, D.C. and before collapsing announces that he has been to the Moon. The news of Harman's feat, combined with Eldredge's absence and growing popular discontent at the extreme policies of the FSRIB, causes a reaction against antiscientism, and Harman is acclaimed as a hero.
Notes
Asimov named the narrator after fellow writer
Clifford D. Simak
Clifford Donald Simak (; August 3, 1904 – April 25, 1988) was an American science fiction writer. He won three Hugo Awards and one Nebula Award. The Science Fiction Writers of America made him its third SFWA Grand Master, and the Horror Wr ...
. He cited "Trends" as an example of a successful prediction of the future in a science fiction story. Even though he got the details of the flight itself wrong, Asimov said, he was correct in predicting that there would be popular opposition to a flight to the Moon, and was the first to do so.
The story, written two months after the September 1938
Munich Crisis
The Munich Agreement ( cs, Mnichovská dohoda; sk, Mníchovská dohoda; german: Münchner Abkommen) was an agreement concluded at Munich on 30 September 1938, by Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy. It provided "cession to Germany ...
, mentions a
Second World War
World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposin ...
in 1940. He later wrote that he did not believe
Neville Chamberlain
Arthur Neville Chamberlain (; 18 March 18699 November 1940) was a British politician of the Conservative Party who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from May 1937 to May 1940. He is best known for his foreign policy of appeasemen ...
's prediction of "
Peace for our time
"Peace for our time" was a declaration made by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in his 30 September 1938 remarks in London concerning the Munich Agreement and the subsequent Anglo-German Declaration. The phrase echoed Benjamin Disr ...
": "I estimated that there would be war in a year and a half, and again I was too conservative".
References
Sources
*Asimov, Isaac, "When Aristotle Fails, Try Science Fiction", ''Intellectual Digest'', December 1971.
*Asimov, Isaac, "Prediction as a Side Effect", ''Boston Review of Arts'', July 1972.
*Asimov, Isaac, "How Easy to See the Future", ''Natural History'', April 1975.
*Asimov, Isaac, ''
In Memory Yet Green
Isaac Asimov (–1992) wrote three volumes of autobiography. ''In Memory Yet Green'' (1979) and ''In Joy Still Felt'' (1980) were a two-volume work, covering his life up to 1978. The third volume, ''I. Asimov: A Memoir'' (1994), published after h ...
'', Doubleday, 1979, .
*Asimov, Isaac, "Trends" in ''The Early Asimov'' .
External links
*
"Trends"on the
Internet Archive
The Internet Archive is an American digital library with the stated mission of "universal access to all knowledge". It provides free public access to collections of digitized materials, including websites, software applications/games, music, ...
{{DEFAULTSORT:Trends (Short Story)
Short stories by Isaac Asimov
1939 short stories
Short stories set on the Moon
Works originally published in Analog Science Fiction and Fact
Fiction set in 1973
Fiction set in 2008
Future history