''The Great Depression of 1990'' is a book by

Ravi Batra Raveendra Nath "Ravi" Batra (born June 27, 1943) is an Indian-American economist, author, and professor at Southern Methodist University. Batra is the author of six bestselling books, two of which appeared on The New York Times Best Seller list, ...

in the field of

economic history Economic history is the academic learning of economies or economic events of the past. Research is conducted using a combination of historical methods, statistical methods and the application of economic theory to historical situations and i ...

and

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, originally published in 1985. The book's original title was ''Regular Cycles of Money, Inflation, Regulation and Depressions''.

MIT The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a private land-grant research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Established in 1861, MIT has played a key role in the development of modern technology and science, and is one of the m ...

Economics Professor

Lester Thurow Lester Carl Thurow (May 7, 1938 – March 25, 2016) was an American political economist, former dean of the MIT Sloan School of Management, and author of books on economic topics. Education Born in Livingston, Montana, Thurow received his B.A. i ...

wrote a favorable introduction for the book with its original title. Retitled, the book entered the New York Times Best Seller list in early 1987 and reached #1 later that year. The book and its sequel, ''Surviving the Great Depression of 1990'', made Batra '' "one of the best selling economists of all time." '' The book was frequently criticized by economists after it became a best-seller, as it focused on a darker side of capitalistic development, notably Batra's main claim that excessive inequality in capitalist societies can lead to financial crises and economic depressions. Importantly, the prediction in the title did not materialize.

Reception

In late 1987,

Milton Friedman Milton Friedman (; July 31, 1912 – November 16, 2006) was an American economist and statistician who received the 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his research on consumption analysis, monetary history and theory and the ...

was asked by the ''

San Francisco Chronicle The ''San Francisco Chronicle'' is a newspaper serving primarily the San Francisco Bay Area of Northern California. It was founded in 1865 as ''The Daily Dramatic Chronicle'' by teenage brothers Charles de Young and Michael H. de Young. The ...

'' about Batra's new best-seller. Friedman replied that he would "not touch it with a ten foot pole". In a review in the ''

Los Angeles Times The ''Los Angeles Times'' (abbreviated as ''LA Times'') is a daily newspaper that started publishing in Los Angeles in 1881. Based in the LA-adjacent suburb of El Segundo since 2018, it is the sixth-largest newspaper by circulation in the U ...

'', economist Paul Erdman, considered the book to be "a strange mixture of voodoo historical theories and sound economic analysis. It provokes, and we can use the provocation." Marketing professor J. Scott Armstrong was far more critical. Writing in the ''

International Journal of Forecasting The ''International Journal of Forecasting'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed scientific journal on forecasting. It is published by Elsevier on behalf of the International Institute of Forecasters. Its objective is to "unify the field of forecasting ...

'', Armstrong noted problems in three areas. First, Batra made an argument from authority based in part on his prolific publication record, but his work was much less cited than would be expected by someone claiming to be a "superstar" as Batra did. Second, Batra based his ideas on business cycles from a sample size of six and did not buttress his conclusions or methodology with citations to the relevant literature. Third, the reliance on Sarkar's philosophy led to imprecise terminology that prevented a coherent theory. Armstrong concluded that while some recommendations of the book were sensible, others were "potentially dangerous" and the conclusions drawn by the author were not supported by the text. ''

New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...

'' reporter Thomas C. Hayes noted Batra's "penchant for sweeping generalizations, factual errors and other missteps" and that despite impressive sales, "many academic and business economists have ignored the book". The book was generally ignored after its key prediction failed to materialize in the 1990s.

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Great Depression Of 1990 Books about economic crises 1985 non-fiction books