''The 480'' is a political fiction novel by

Eugene Burdick Eugene Leonard Burdick (December 12, 1918 – July 26, 1965) was an American political scientist, novelist, and non-fiction writer, co-author of ''The Ugly American'' (1958), ''Fail-Safe'' (1962), and author of ''The 480'' (1965). Early life He ...

(1964). The plot revolves around the political turmoil after

John F. Kennedy assassination John F. Kennedy, the 35th president of the United States, was Assassination, assassinated on Friday, November 22, 1963, at 12:30 p.m. Central Time Zone, CST in Dallas, Dallas, Texas, while riding in a presidential motorcade through Deale ...

in 1963. In the novel, a fictitious charismatic character, John Thatch, an engineer, is seeking nomination for the Republican Party candidate at 1964 presidential elections. He is described as being contaminated with the "political virus". A handful of political professionals are promoting his nomination, in confrontation with the Party establishment. There exist apparent parallels between Thatch and

Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (July 5, 1902 – February 27, 1985) was an American diplomat and Republican United States senator from Massachusetts in both Senate seats in non-consecutive terms of service and a United States ambassador. He was considered ...

, a

write-in A write-in candidate is a candidate whose name does not appear on the ballot but seeks election by asking voters to cast a vote for the candidate by physically writing in the person's name on the ballot. Depending on electoral law it may be poss ...

hero at

New Hampshire New Hampshire is a U.S. state, state in the New England region of the northeastern United States. It is bordered by Massachusetts to the south, Vermont to the west, Maine and the Gulf of Maine to the east, and the Canadian province of Quebec t ...

primary. The novel criticizes the socio-political effects on

society A society is a group of individuals involved in persistent social interaction, or a large social group sharing the same spatial or social territory, typically subject to the same political authority and dominant cultural expectations. Socie ...

at large from the use of

computer A computer is a machine that can be programmed to Execution (computing), carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations (computation) automatically. Modern digital electronic computers can perform generic sets of operations known as C ...

s to run massive simulations, which predict the public reaction to certain (proposed) political moves before implementing them. Such simulations make it easy to manipulate the public consciousness. The "480" in the title denotes the number of groups (by party affiliation,

socioeconomic status Socioeconomic status (SES) is an economic and sociological combined total measure of a person's work experience and of an individual's or family's economic access to resources and social position in relation to others. When analyzing a family's ...

, location, origin, etc.) that the computer simulation uses to classify the American electorate. The full list of these is reproduced in the Appendix, claimed by the author to be the true list used by the

Simulmatics Corporation The Simulmatics Corporation was a U.S. data science firm founded in 1959 that used algorithms to target voters and consumers. One of its leading figures was Ithiel de Sola Pool. Professor of American History at Harvard University Jill Lepore w ...

(real name) in Senator

John F. Kennedy John Fitzgerald Kennedy (May 29, 1917 – November 22, 1963), often referred to by his initials JFK and the nickname Jack, was an American politician who served as the 35th president of the United States from 1961 until his assassination i ...

's Presidential campaign in 1960. The cover features an IBM 5081 punched card. The Simulmatics Corporation was created by MIT Professor

Ithiel de Sola Pool Ithiel de Sola Pool (October 26, 1917 – March 11, 1984) was an American academic who was a widely celebrated and often controversial figure in the field of social sciences and information technology. He did significant research on technology an ...

, who provided a non-fiction backup to "The 480" in "Candidates, Issues, and Strategies: A Computer Simulation of the 1960 Presidential Election," MIT Press, 1964 (with co-authors

Robert P. Abelson Robert Paul Abelson (September 12, 1928 – July 13, 2005) was a Yale University psychologist and political scientist with special interests in statistics and logic. Biography He was born in New York City and attended the Bronx High School of Sci ...

and

Samuel L. Popkin Samuel L. Popkin (born June 9, 1942) is an American political scientist who teaches at the University of California, San Diego. Popkin has played a role in the development of rational choice theory within political science. He is also noted for h ...

). They built their model from 130,000 archived interviews in Gallup and Roper polls over a ten-year period. Based on its output, they advised Kennedy that he would benefit from a strong civil rights stand and that he had nothing to lose, and much to gain, by attacking religious bigotry and dealing frankly with his Catholicism. The 480 has been cited as prefiguring the effect of modern social media and data gathering on politics.

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:480, The 1964 American novels Novels about elections 1964 United States presidential election McGraw-Hill books