The surprisingly popular answer is a
wisdom of the crowd
The wisdom of the crowd is the collective opinion of a diverse independent group of individuals rather than that of a single expert. This process, while not new to the Information Age, has been pushed into the mainstream spotlight by social infor ...
technique that taps into the expert minority opinion within a crowd.
For a given question, a group is asked both "What do you think the right answer is?" and "What do you think the popular answer will be?" The answer that maximizes the average difference between the "right" answer and the "popular" answer is the "surprisingly popular" answer.
The term "surprisingly popular" was coined in a 2017 paper published in
''Nature'' entitled "A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem", which outlined the technique.
Example
Suppose the question to be determined is: Is
Philadelphia
Philadelphia, often called Philly, is the largest city in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the sixth-largest city in the U.S., the second-largest city in both the Northeast megalopolis and Mid-Atlantic regions after New York City. Sinc ...
the capital of
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania (; ( Pennsylvania Dutch: )), officially the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, is a state spanning the Mid-Atlantic, Northeastern, Appalachian, and Great Lakes regions of the United States. It borders Delaware to its southeast, ...
? The two questions asked of the group, and the numbers of responses, are:
: Is Philadelphia the capital of Pennsylvania?
:* Yes: 65%
:* No: 35%
: What do you think most people will respond to that question?
:* Yes: 75%
:* No: 25%
The difference between the answers to the ''right'' question and the ''popular'' question:
* Yes: 65% − 75% = −10%
* No: 35% − 25% = 10%
Thus, the ''No'' answer is surprisingly popular (10% > −10%). Because of the relatively high margin of 10%, there can be high confidence that the correct answer is ''No''. (The capital is indeed not
Philadelphia
Philadelphia, often called Philly, is the largest city in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the sixth-largest city in the U.S., the second-largest city in both the Northeast megalopolis and Mid-Atlantic regions after New York City. Sinc ...
, but
Harrisburg
Harrisburg is the capital city of the Pennsylvania, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, United States, and the county seat of Dauphin County, Pennsylvania, Dauphin County. With a population of 50,135 as of the 2021 census, Harrisburg is the List of c ...
.)
An illustrative breakdown of this follows. There are four groups of people.
* A - "Philadelphia is the capital, and others will agree." (This group answers yes/yes.)
* B - "Philadelphia is the capital, but most others won't know that". (This group answers yes/no.)
* C - "Philadelphia is not the capital, and others will agree." (This group answers no/no.)
* D - "Philadelphia is not the capital, but most others won't know that." (This group answers no/yes.)
This technique causes groups A and C to be eliminated from consideration and measures the difference in size between groups B and D.
Both groups B and D think they know something other people don't, but B is wrong and D is right. In cases where people feel like they have "inside" knowledge, it's more often the case that it's because they are correct and knowledgeable (group D), not because they are misled (group B).
See also
*
Keynesian beauty contest
A Keynesian beauty contest is a concept developed by John Maynard Keynes and introduced in Chapter 12 of his work, ''The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money'' (1936), to explain price fluctuations in equity markets. It describes a bea ...
*
Guess 2/3 of the average
In game theory, "guess of the average" is a game that explores how a player’s strategic reasoning process takes into account the mental process of others in the game.
In this game, players simultaneously select a real number between 0 and 100, ...
*
Family Feud
''Family Feud'' is an American television game show created by Mark Goodson. It features two families who compete to name the most popular answers to survey questions in order to win cash and prizes.
The show has had three separate runs, the ...
*
Focal point (game theory)
In game theory, a focal point (or Schelling point) is a solution that people tend to choose by default in the absence of communication. The concept was introduced by the American economist Thomas Schelling in his book ''The Strategy of Conflict'' ( ...
, also known as Schelling point
References
Further reading
{{cite journal, last1=Prelec, first1=Dražen, last2=Seung, first2=H. Sebastian, last3=McCoy, first3=John, title=A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem, journal=Nature, date=25 January 2017, volume=541, issue=7638, pages=532–535, doi=10.1038/nature21054, pmid=28128245, bibcode=2017Natur.541..532P, s2cid=4452604
Crowdsourcing
Social information processing
Knowledge
Crowds