In the
political science
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
of the
United States Congress
The United States Congress is the legislature of the federal government of the United States. It is bicameral, composed of a lower body, the House of Representatives, and an upper body, the Senate. It meets in the U.S. Capitol in Washing ...
, slurge is the
arithmetic mean
In mathematics and statistics, the arithmetic mean ( ) or arithmetic average, or just the ''mean'' or the ''average'' (when the context is clear), is the sum of a collection of numbers divided by the count of numbers in the collection. The colle ...
of
retirement slump Retirement slump refers to the average falloff in the party's vote when the incumbent retires. A positive value of the sophomore surge represents an incumbency advantage. The retirement slump should be positive for an incumbency advantage to exist.
...
and
sophomore surge
A sophomore surge (sometimes referred to in the United Kingdom as first-term incumbency bonus) is a term used in the political science of the United States Congress that refers to an increase in votes that congressional candidates (candidates for t ...
. The term was coined by
John Alford and
David R. Brady in a 1988 academic paper.
The slurge is one of the more accurate means of measuring incumbency advantage in congressional elections. If the "retirement slump" is the difference in percentage of the vote share between a retiring incumbent and a new candidate, and the "sophomore surge" is the difference in percentage between a new candidate's first campaign and second campaign as an incumbent, then the slurge, being an average of the two, indicates a higher incumbency advantage when higher.
Example of usage:
"The slurge was too high to miss, yet the American people did."
References
Alford, John and David R. Brady, 1988, ''Partisan and Incumbent Advantages in U.S. House Elections, 1846-1986,'' Working Paper No. 11, Center for the Study of Institutions and Values, Rice University.
Terminology of the United States Congress
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