Second American Civil War

The "Second American Civil War" is an umbrella term used by academics in order to reclassify historical eras of significant political violence in the history of the United States as a "civil war" or, more commonly, to discuss the potential outbreak of a future civil war in the country. Discussion of a second civil war has occurred with varying degrees of frequency and sincerity since the first civil war ended in 1865.

Discussion of a possible second civil war entered the mainstream in earnest as a result of the polarizing effect of the 2016 election of Donald Trump. Many conservatives had come to express perceived grievances against the government, which they viewed as tyrannical under Democrats such as President Barack Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Meanwhile, left-leaning groups viewed Trump's election as a sign that reactionary, far-right, and extremist movements were gaining political power, warning that Trump's incendiary and antidemocratic behavior would promote political violence, while the efforts of Trump conservatives to subvert democratic norms would lead to a rise in fascism, ultra-nationalism, Christian nationalism, and white supremacy. The resulting social division is considered by most experts to be one of the most politically polarizing eras in American history.

Concerns about a civil war rose dramatically after the first impeachment trial of Donald Trump, and it continued to grow due to political turmoil. Stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest during the George Floyd protests, the aftermath and legal investigations related to the historically contentious 2020 United States presidential election, the poor economic conditions from the 2021–2022 inflation surge, the overturning of '' Roe v. Wade'', and the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Those who see early signs of a second civil war point to trends including democratic decline and a normalization of political violence, claiming that the United States deeply resembles other countries that have broken out into civil war. Meanwhile, those who say the risk of civil war is overblown characterize such discussions as alarmist and fearmongering, pointing to significant disincentives to large-scale violence ranging from the economic to the geopolitical. Almost all observers claim a second civil war of any magnitude would incur deep costs to global stability.

Following the violent pro-Trump attack on the U.S. Capitol in 2021, an increasing number of political scientists, journalists, historians, intelligence officials, military leaders, former U.S. generals, investors, political leaders on both sides of the political divide began to raise growing concern that the United States might break into civil war. Evangelical and fundamentalist leaders, including Focus on the Family, have urged conservative Christians to prepare for civil war against the " radical left." The British progressive newspaper ''The Guardian'' suggested that America's "treasonous far-right factions" have already declared war. Some intelligence officials and journalists have asserted that the country is locked into a cold civil war between the political left and the political right that could start within the next five to ten years. Others state that the 2022 midterms or the 2024 presidential election could act as a potential fire-starter. And still others claim a second civil war may have already begun and a shooting war is inevitable. During the 2022 election cycle, several Republican candidates ran their platform on "civil war" rhetoric, with many candidates discussing violence against the left, while many Democrats warned of fascism if Republicans take control of the government.

Polling data demonstrates growing pessimism among Americans who view the future of their country at risk of civil war. A slim majority consider the U.S. to be in a cold civil war between the political left and political right. Other polling shows that a majority of self-identified Republicans agree that "some violence may be necessary to get the country back on track" and that the "U.S. seems headed toward a civil war in the near future." It has also been demonstrated that both self-identified Democrats and Republicans have a growing tolerance for violence as a means to justify political ends. These sentiments have translated into real-world action, with a handful of mass shootings and politically motivated killings being at least partly motivated by right-wing perpetrators hoping to foment a second civil war.

Reinterpretations of past events

Division among colonists during the Revolutionary War

Some historians name the 1861–1865 war the "Second American Civil War", because in their view, the American Revolutionary War can also be considered a civil war (since the term can be used in reference to any war in which one political body separates itself from another political body). They then refer to the Independence War, which resulted in the separation of the Thirteen Colonies from the British Empire, as the "First American Civil War". A significant number of American colonists stayed loyal to the British Crown and as Loyalists fought on the British side while opposite were a significant amount of colonists called Patriots who fought on the American side. In some localities, there was fierce fighting between Americans including gruesome instances of hanging, drawing, and quartering on both sides. As Canadian historian William Stewart Wallace noted:

As early as 1789, David Ramsay, an American patriot historian, wrote in his ''History of the American Revolution'' that "Many circumstances concurred to make the American war particularly calamitous. It was originally a civil war in the estimation of both parties." Framing the American Revolutionary War as a civil war is gaining increasing examination.

"War of Terror" during the Reconstruction Era

After the American Civil War effectively ended with the Ceasefire Agreement of the Confederacy, the federal government began a process which it called Reconstruction, leading to the Reconstruction era (1865–1877). The United States aimed to return Southern states to the Union and update the federal and state governments in accordance with the Thirteenth, Fourteenth, and Fifteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution. The post-war volatility created endemic violence in Southern states, including armed conflict. Due to the violence and severity of the social, political and constitutional challenges during the Reconstruction Era, this period in history is sometimes called the "Second Civil War". Referring to Reconstruction as a "Second American Civil War" was established by the ''American Experience'' episode "Reconstruction: The Second Civil War" and made its way to the school curriculum.

White supremacy terrorist groups emerged in the South to oppose Reconstruction, including the foundation of the Ku Klux Klan, the White League, and the Knights of the White Camelia, which consisted primarily of Confederate veterans. These organizations attempted to oppose the United States government through assassinations, intimidation of black and white Republican officials, voter intimidation, and, at times, attempted coups and insurrections such as The Battle of Liberty Place in Louisiana in 1874. Historian Clarence Walker described this period as "a war of terror" aimed at black voters and politicians, as well as whites considered "race traitors."

The Coal Wars

Some historians have interpreted the Coal Wars as constituting some form of a Second American Civil War and they also consider it to be the largest national revolt since the first Civil War ended. Starting in 1890, the informal armed rebellion began when coal workers revolted against their employers due to poor working conditions. Attempts to unionize were met with police crackdowns, resulting in several revolts and even resulting in armed battles throughout the United States. Although they occurred mainly in the East, particularly in Appalachia, there was a significant amount of violence in Colorado after the turn of the century.

The largest conflict which occurred during the revolt was the Battle of Blair Mountain in 1921. That battle was the largest labor uprising in United States history and it was also the largest armed uprising since the American Civil War. Some 10,000 armed coal miners confronted 3,000 lawmen and strikebreakers (called the Logan Defenders) when tensions rose between workers and mine management. The battle ended after approximately one million rounds were fired and the United States Army, represented by the West Virginia Army National Guard led by McDowell County native William Eubanks, intervened by presidential order. Up to 100 people were killed, and many more arrested.

The 1933 "Business Plot"

The Business Plot (also called the Wall Street Putsch and The White House Putsch) was a political conspiracy in 1933 in the United States to overthrow the government of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and install a dictator. Retired Marine Corps Major General Smedley Butler asserted that wealthy businessmen were plotting to create a fascist veterans' organization with Butler as its leader and use it in a coup d'état to overthrow Roosevelt. In 1934, Butler testified under oath before the United States House of Representatives Special Committee on Un-American Activities (the "McCormack– Dickstein Committee") on these revelations. Although no one was prosecuted, the congressional committee final report said, "there is no question that these attempts were discussed, were planned, and might have been placed in execution when and if the financial backers deemed it expedient."

Early in the committee's gathering of testimony most major news media dismissed the plot, with a ''New York Times'' editorial characterizing it as a "gigantic hoax". When the committee's final report was released, the Times said the committee "purported to report that a two-month investigation had convinced it that General Butler's story of a Fascist march on Washington was alarmingly true" and "... also alleged that definite proof had been found that the much publicized Fascist march on Washington, which was to have been led by Major Gen. Smedley D. Butler, retired, according to testimony at a hearing, was actually contemplated". The individuals involved all denied the existence of a plot. Historians have questioned whether or not a coup was actually close to execution, but most agree that some sort of "wild scheme" was contemplated and discussed.

Debate about the outbreak of a possible Second Civil War (2008–present)

A national discussion of a second civil war can be traced back to the election of Barack Obama in 2008, and increased in frequency and seriousness after the election of Donald Trump in 2016. The debate became mainstream after several socially destabilizing events in 2020–2022, most notably was the political fallout from the highly contentious 2020 presidential election.

Warning signs of a second civil war

Those who see warning signs of a second civil war cite:

* Democratic decline, signs of anocracy, and authoritarian movements.
* The polarizing effect of a winner-takes-all two-party system
* Radicalized citizenry with a record high gun ownership rate
* Irreconcilable beliefs about critical issues (such as who won an election)
* Political tension within the U.S. military
* Negative economic conditions (such as growing federal debt, income inequality and the 2021-2022 inflation surge)
* A steady rise in political violence (particularly among far-right domestic terrorists)
* A loss of faith in the legitimacy of the government
* And the normalization of open discussion of civil war

Some researchers have also posited that a civil war might break out along racial and religious lines, exacerbated by the rise of secularization and multiculturalism in America, coupled with white decline and the decline in Christianity. Less commonly, some conservative observers, including Republican politicians, claim a second civil war is being stoked by far-left and socialist movements, such as Antifa, that seek to spark a revolution, suspend the U.S. Constitution, and implement a new form of tyranny. They typically cite discredited conspiracy theories related to COVID-19 misinformation, election rigging, the deep state, or white replacement theory to justify their position.

Argument for alarmism

Skeptics claim that the occurrence of a civil war in the modern U.S. is essentially impossible due to certain present day conditions, including:

* A lack of two organized standing armies
* An absence of clear geopolitical lines (such as North versus South)
* A vastly nonviolent majority on both sides of the political spectrum
* An absence of state-sponsored violence by political leaders
* The nation's position as the wealthiest democracy in the world (which acts as a deterrent to the cost of war)
* Significant disincentives to interstate war (e.g. deeply shared economies across state lines)

They claim that popular discussion about war is alarmist, fearmongering, polarizing, a "failure of historical perspective," and detracts from other real problems facing the nation (such as democratic backsliding and voter suppression). Skeptics generally claim that in its present form, the current political division is a mostly nonviolent culture war that does not represent a existential risk to the continuity of government.

Other critics claim that the term "second civil war" is being used inappropriately when it is being used to describe the potential rise of political violence that does not meet the academic definition of a civil war. They also warn that mainstream talk about a second civil war could become a " self-fulfilling prophecy." Some conservative critics have also claimed that the left is stoking fear to justify censorship and "criminalize dissent."

How a conflict might manifest

Experts state that if civil war breaks out in the United States it will look vastly different from the first civil war, often pointing to the Syrian Civil War as an example of a modern civil war.

The general consensus is that a second civil war would likely take the form of fourth-generation warfare or a low-intensity conflict. Some envision a similar event to The Troubles in Ireland, or the Years of Lead in Italy. Others, such as Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), conceive of a second civil war as frequent acts of political assassination, mass shootings, and domestic terrorism (similar to the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot in 2020 and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing).

Lilliana Mason, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University, stated that if a modern civil war breaks out in the U.S. it will likely grow out of a cycle of protests and counter-protests, leading to deadly confrontations similar to the Kenosha unrest shooting by Kyle Rittenhouse. Mason theorized that if a Republican state legislature rejects the results of a future election it could have a snowball effect. "The first violent event can precipitate a bunch of other violent events," she notes, adding that it could cycle into a "future in which we can't stop the violence."

Other researchers, such as Stephen Marche and Barbara F. Walter, envision a second civil war as more organized, leading to a violent insurgency against the federal and state governments. These movements would manifest as leaderless resistance, guerilla warfare, irregular warfare, or asymmetric warfare driven by white nationalist militias and antigovernmental insurgents who attempt to carve out white ethno-states from the nation.

A large-scale conflict between insurgents and the U.S. military would likely result in a president declaring emergency powers and the implementation of invasive government surveillance, lockdowns and curfews, security checkpoints, and mass detention of suspected insurgents. Others suggest a second civil war could break out ''within'' the military, resulting in a conflict much larger in scope that could be "catastrophic," leading to a collapse of the U.S. political system.

Most experts agree that any form of second civil war would have significant economic and political costs, and would have a far-reaching impact to global stability established by the Post-World War II world order.

Background (2008–present)

Presidency of Barack Obama (2008–2016)

On November 4, 2008, Barack Obama was elected as the first President of the United States with African-American ancestry. Obama appeared just before midnight Eastern Time in Grant Park, Chicago, in front of a crowd of 250,000 people to deliver his victory speech. There was no overt discussion about a Second American Civil War in response to Obama's election. However, former Texas Governor Rick Perry discussed secession at a 2009 rally while the crowd chanted "secede," but later claimed that his remarks were rhetorical.

American professor Victor Davis Hanson blamed Obama's presidency for "sharpening" conflict between "constitutionalism and American exceptionalism

HOME


Content is Copyleft
Website design, code, and AI is Copyrighted (c) 2014-2017 by Stephen Payne


Consider donating to Wikimedia



As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases