Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the

Trafalgar Group The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. It first publicly released polls in 2016. Trafalgar has been questioned for its methodology and for an apparent bias towards the ...

. He was previously a political consultant for

Republican Party Republican Party is a name used by many political parties around the world, though the term most commonly refers to the United States' Republican Party. Republican Party may also refer to: Africa *Republican Party (Liberia) * Republican Part ...

candidates. Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the

2016 presidential election This national electoral calendar for 2016 lists the national/federal elections held in 2016 in all sovereign states and their dependent territories. By-elections are excluded, though national referendums are included. January *7 January: Kirib ...

(Though his polling was wrong, as Hillary won the popular vote, his polling methods could not have predicted the outcome of the electoral college). Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls. Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate. Leading up to the

2020 presidential election This national electoral calendar for 2020 lists the national/federal elections held in 2020 in all sovereign states and their dependent territories. By-elections are excluded, though national referendums are included. January *5 January: **C ...

, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus. Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden.

Early life

Cahaly was born in Georgia and grew up in

Pendleton Pendleton may refer to: Places ;United Kingdom *Pendleton, Lancashire, England *Pendleton, Greater Manchester, England ;United States *Pendleton, Indiana * Pendleton, Missouri *Pendleton, New York *Pendleton, Oregon *Pendleton, South Carolina *Pe ...

, South Carolina, and received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of South Carolina in 1995. Cahaly is of

Syrian Syrians ( ar, سُورِيُّون, ''Sūriyyīn'') are an Eastern Mediterranean ethnic group indigenous to the Levant. They share common Levantine Semitic roots. The cultural and linguistic heritage of the Syrian people is a blend of both indi ...

heritage and an

Eastern Orthodox Christian Eastern Orthodoxy, also known as Eastern Orthodox Christianity, is one of the three main branches of Chalcedonian Christianity, alongside Catholicism and Protestantism. Like the Pentarchy of the first millennium, the mainstream (or "canonical") ...

. Starting as a child, he volunteered on various political campaigns, before eventually founding his own political consulting firm in 1997.

Career

Political consultant

Cahaly has worked on campaigns for various Republicans, including governors

Carroll Campbell Carroll Ashmore Campbell Jr. (July 24, 1940December 7, 2005), was an American Republican Party politician who served as the List of governors of South Carolina, 112th governor of South Carolina from 1987 to 1995. Prior to this, he served as ...

David Beasley David Muldrow Beasley (born February 26, 1957) is an American politician and the Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Programme. A member of the Republican Party, he served one term as the 113th Governor of South Carolina from 19 ...

Mike Huckabee Michael Dale Huckabee (born August 24, 1955) is an American politician, Baptist minister, and political commentator who served as the 44th governor of Arkansas from 1996 to 2007. He was a candidate for the Republican Party presidential nomina ...

Nikki Haley Nimrata Nikki Haley (née Randhawa; born January 20, 1972) is an American diplomat and politician who served as the 116th and first female governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, and as the 29th United States ambassador to the United Na ...

, Chris Christie, and Henry McMaster; US Senators

Strom Thurmond James Strom Thurmond Sr. (December 5, 1902June 26, 2003) was an American politician who represented South Carolina in the United States Senate from 1954 to 2003. Prior to his 48 years as a senator, he served as the 103rd governor of South Caro ...

Bob Dole Robert Joseph Dole (July 22, 1923 – December 5, 2021) was an American politician and attorney who represented Kansas in the United States Senate from 1969 to 1996. He was the Republican Leader of the Senate during the final 11 years of his te ...

, Tim Scott, and Ben Sasse; and Presidents George H. W. Bush,

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...

, and Donald Trump. On November 3, 2010, Cahaly was arrested by the State Law Enforcement Division (SLED) and charged with making illegal

robocalls A robocall is a phone call that uses a computerized autodialer to deliver a pre-recorded message, as if from a robot. Robocalls are often associated with political and telemarketing phone campaigns, but can also be used for public service or emer ...

. Cahaly denied any wrongdoing, stating "It is sad and disappointing that in this charged election cycle full of last minute surprise attacks that Democrat Incumbents and power brokers are leveraging all of their influence to create a last minute salacious headline. We are apparently today's target." The charges were subsequently dismissed in October 2012. After the charges were dropped, Cahaly filed suit against SLED officials, claiming his constitutional right to free speech had been violated. The subsequent decision of '' Cahaly v. LaRosa'' found the anti-robocall statute was a content-based restriction on speech and therefore unconstitutional, which defended the right of Cahaly to make

Pollster

Cahaly gained media attention in 2016 for being one of the few pollsters to accurately predict that Donald Trump would carry the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania in the

2016 United States presidential election The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket ...

. Cahaly attributed this partially on the premise of "Shy Trump Voter Theory", which claims that poll respondents are afraid to reveal that they are voting for Trump due to a " social desirability bias." In November 2020, Cahaly appeared on Hannity on Fox News and predicted that Trump would win Pennsylvania, but possibly still lose the state through voter fraud: "He better win by 4 or 5% to make sure he gets victory there. That is the margin he needs to avoid what they will systematically do." In September 2022, Cahaly, in an interview with Split Ticket, acknowledged methodological changes from his polling of the

2020 United States elections The 2020 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. Democratic presidential nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, defeated incumbent Republican president Donald Trump in the presidential election. Despite losing seats ...

. The

's polling numbers were mostly inaccurate in the

2022 United States midterm elections The 2022 United States elections were held on November 8, 2022, with the exception of absentee balloting. During this U.S. midterm election, which occurred during the first term of incumbent president Joe Biden of the Democratic Party, all 435 ...

. Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Tim Michels, and

Herschel Walker Herschel Junior Walker (born March 3, 1962) is an American former football running back who played in the National Football League (NFL) for 12 seasons. He was also the Republican nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia. ...

, would all win.

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Cahaly, Robert Pollsters American people of Syrian descent People from Damascus American politicians of Syrian descent University of South Carolina alumni People from Pendleton, South Carolina People from Georgia (U.S. state) Year of birth missing (living people) Living people