Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,
[Adam Borison (]Stanford University
Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. The campus occupies , among the largest in the United States, and enrolls over 17,000 students. Stanford is consider ...
)
''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?''
(ROV or ROA) applies
option
Option or Options may refer to:
Computing
*Option key, a key on Apple computer keyboards
*Option type, a polymorphic data type in programming languages
*Command-line option, an optional parameter to a command
*OPTIONS, an HTTP request method
...
valuation techniques to
capital budgeting decisions.
[Campbell, R. Harvey]
''Identifying real options''
Duke University, 2002. A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project.
For example, real options valuation could examine the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm's factory and the alternative option to sell the factory.
[Nijssen, E. (2014)]
Routelegde, 2014.
Real options are generally distinguished from conventional financial options in that they are not typically traded as securities, and do not usually involve decisions on an underlying asset that is traded as a financial security. A further distinction is that option holders here, i.e. management, can directly influence the value of the option's
underlying project; whereas this is not a consideration as regards the underlying security of a financial option. Moreover, management cannot measure uncertainty in terms of
volatility, and must instead rely on their perceptions of uncertainty. Unlike financial options, management also have to create or discover real options, and such creation and discovery process comprises an entrepreneurial or business task. Real options are most valuable when uncertainty is high; management has significant flexibility to change the course of the project in a favorable direction and is willing to exercise the options.
Real options analysis, as a discipline, extends from its application in
corporate finance
Corporate finance is the area of finance that deals with the sources of funding, the capital structure of corporations, the actions that managers take to increase the Value investing, value of the firm to the shareholders, and the tools and anal ...
, to
decision making under uncertainty in general, adapting the techniques developed for
financial options to "real-life" decisions. For example,
R&D managers can use Real Options Valuation to help them deal with various uncertainties in making decisions about the allocation of resources among R&D projects. Non business examples might be evaluating the cost of
cryptocurrency
A cryptocurrency, crypto-currency, or crypto is a digital currency designed to work as a medium of exchange through a computer network that is not reliant on any central authority, such as a government or bank, to uphold or maintain it. It i ...
mining machines, or the decision to join the work force, or rather, to forgo several years of income to attend
graduate school. It, thus, forces decision makers to be explicit about the assumptions underlying their projections, and for this reason ROV is increasingly employed as a tool in
business strategy formulation.
[Justin Pettit]
''Applications in Real Options and Value-based Strategy''
Ch.4. in Trigeorgis (1996)[Joanne Sammer]
Thinking in Real (Options) Time
businessfinancemag.com[David Shimko (2009)]
Real Options: Opportunity from Risk
archived 2010-04-05. This extension of real options to real-world projects often requires customized
decision support system
A decision support system (DSS) is an information system that supports business or organizational decision-making activities. DSSs serve the management, operations and planning levels of an organization (usually mid and higher management) and h ...
s, because otherwise the complex compound real options will become too intractable to handle.
Types of real options
The flexibility available to management – i.e. the actual "real options" – generically, will relate to project size, project timing, and the operation of the project once established. In all cases, any (non-recoverable) upfront expenditure related to this flexibility is the
option premium. Real options are also commonly applied to
stock valuation - see - as well as to various other
"Applications" referenced below.
Options relating to project size
Where the project's scope is uncertain, flexibility as to the size of the relevant facilities is valuable, and constitutes optionality.
*Option to expand: Here the project is built with capacity in excess of the expected level of output so that it can produce at higher rate if needed. Management then has the option (but not the obligation) to expand – i.e.
exercise the option – should conditions turn out to be favourable. A project with the option to expand will cost more to establish, the excess being the
option premium, but is worth more than the same without the possibility of expansion. This is equivalent to a
call option
In finance, a call option, often simply labeled a "call", is a contract between the buyer and the seller of the call option to exchange a security at a set price. The buyer of the call option has the right, but not the obligation, to buy an ...
.
*Option to contract : The project is engineered such that output can be contracted in future should conditions turn out to be unfavourable. Forgoing these future expenditures constitutes
option exercise. This is the equivalent to a
put option
In finance, a put or put option is a derivative instrument in financial markets that gives the holder (i.e. the purchaser of the put option) the right to sell an asset (the ''underlying''), at a specified price (the ''strike''), by (or at) a s ...
, and again, the excess upfront expenditure is the
option premium.
*Option to expand or contract: Here the project is designed such that its operation can be dynamically turned on and off. Management may shut down part or all of the operation when conditions are unfavorable (a put option), and may restart operations when conditions improve (a call option). A
flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is a good example of this type of option. This option is also known as a
Switching option.
Options relating to project life and timing
Where there is uncertainty as to when, and how, business or other conditions will eventuate, flexibility as to the timing of the relevant project(s) is valuable, and constitutes optionality. Growth options are perhaps the most generic in this category – these entail the option to exercise only those projects that appear to be profitable at the time of initiation.
*Initiation or deferment options: Here management has flexibility as to when to start a project. For example, in
natural resource exploration a firm can delay mining a deposit until market conditions are favorable. This constitutes an
American styled call option
In finance, a call option, often simply labeled a "call", is a contract between the buyer and the seller of the call option to exchange a security at a set price. The buyer of the call option has the right, but not the obligation, to buy an ...
.
*Delay option with a product patent: A firm with a
patent right on a product has a right to develop and market the product exclusively until the expiration of the patent. The firm will market and develop the product only if the present value of the expected cash flows from the product sales exceeds the cost of development. If this does not occur, the firm can shelve the patent and not incur any further costs.
*Option to abandon: Management may have the option to cease a project during its life, and, possibly, to realise its
salvage value. Here, when the present value of the remaining cash flows falls below the liquidation value, the asset may be sold, and this act is effectively the exercising of a
put option
In finance, a put or put option is a derivative instrument in financial markets that gives the holder (i.e. the purchaser of the put option) the right to sell an asset (the ''underlying''), at a specified price (the ''strike''), by (or at) a s ...
. This option is also known as a
Termination option. Abandonment options are
American styled.
*Sequencing options: This option is related to the initiation option above, although entails flexibility as to the timing of more than one inter-related projects: the analysis here is as to whether it is advantageous to implement these
sequentially or
in parallel
Two-terminal components and electrical networks can be connected in series or parallel. The resulting electrical network will have two terminals, and itself can participate in a series or parallel topology. Whether a two-terminal "object" is an ...
. Here, observing the outcomes relating to the first project, the firm can resolve some of the uncertainty relating to the venture overall. Once resolved, management has the option to proceed or not with the development of the other projects. If taken in parallel, management would have already spent the resources and the value of the option not to spend them is lost. The sequencing of projects is an important issue in
corporate strategy. Related here is also the notion of Intraproject vs. Interproject options.
*Option to prototype: New energy generation and storage systems are continuously being developed due to climate change, resource scarcity, and environmental laws. Some systems are incremental innovations of existing systems while others are radical innovations. Radical innovation systems are risky investments due to their relevant technical and economic uncertainties. Prototyping can hedge these risks by spending a fraction of the cost of a full-scale system and in return receiving economic and technical information regarding the system. In economic terms, prototyping is an option to hedge risk coming at a cost that needs to be properly assessed.
Options relating to project operation
Management may have flexibility relating to the product produced and /or the
process used in manufacture. As in the preceding cases, this flexibility increases the value of the project, corresponding in turn, to the "premium" paid for the real option.
*Output mix options: The option to produce different outputs from the same facility is known as an output mix option or product flexibility. These options are particularly valuable in industries where demand is volatile or where quantities demanded in total for a particular good are typically low, and management would wish to change to a different product quickly if required.
*Input mix options: An input mix option – process flexibility – allows management to use different inputs to produce the same output as appropriate. For example, a farmer will value the option to switch between various feed sources, preferring to use the cheapest acceptable alternative. An
electric utility, for example, may have the option to switch between various fuel sources to produce electricity, and therefore a flexible plant, although more expensive may actually be more valuable.
*Operating scale options: Management may have the option to change the output rate per unit of time or to change the total length of production run time, for example in response to market conditions. These options are also known as
Intensity option
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?''
(ROV or ROA) applies option (finance), option Valuation of options, valuation techniques ...
s.
Valuation
Given the above, it is clear that there is an
analogy
Analogy (from Greek ''analogia'', "proportion", from ''ana-'' "upon, according to" lso "against", "anew"+ ''logos'' "ratio" lso "word, speech, reckoning" is a cognitive process of transferring information or meaning from a particular subject ( ...
between real options and
financial options,
and we would therefore expect options-based modelling and analysis to be applied here. At the same time, it is nevertheless important to understand why the more standard valuation techniques may not be applicable for ROV.
Applicability of standard techniques
ROV is often contrasted with more standard techniques of
capital budgeting, such as
discounted cash flow
The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is a method in finance of valuing a security, project, company, or asset using the concepts of the time value of money.
Discounted cash flow analysis is widely used in investment finance, real estate devel ...
(DCF) analysis /
net present value (NPV).
Under this "standard" NPV approach, future expected cash flows are
present valued under the
empirical probability measure at a discount rate that reflects the embedded risk in the project; see
CAPM CAPM may refer to:
* Capital asset pricing model, a fundamental model in finance
* Certified Associate in Project Management, an entry-level credential for project managers
{{Disambig ...
,
APT
Apt. is an abbreviation for apartment.
Apt may also refer to:
Places
* Apt Cathedral, a former cathedral, and national monument of France, in the town of Apt in Provence
* Apt, Vaucluse, a commune of the Vaucluse département of France
* A ...
,
WACC.
Here, only the expected cash flows are considered, and the "flexibility" to alter corporate strategy in view of actual market realizations is "ignored"; see
below
Below may refer to:
*Earth
*Ground (disambiguation)
*Soil
*Floor
*Bottom (disambiguation)
Bottom may refer to:
Anatomy and sex
* Bottom (BDSM), the partner in a BDSM who takes the passive, receiving, or obedient role, to that of the top or ...
as well as .
The NPV framework (implicitly) assumes that management is "passive" with regard to their
Capital Investment once committed.
Some analysts account for this uncertainty by
(i) adjusting the discount rate, e.g. by increasing the
cost of capital
In economics and accounting, the cost of capital is the cost of a company's funds (both debt and equity), or from an investor's point of view is "the required rate of return on a portfolio company's existing securities". It is used to evaluate new ...
,
or (ii) adjusting the cash flows, e.g. using
certainty equivalents,
or (iii) applying (subjective) "haircuts" to the forecast numbers,
or (iv) via probability-weighting these as in
rNPV.
[Aswath Damodaran]
Risk Adjusted Value
Ch 5 in ''Strategic Risk Taking: A Framework for Risk Management''. Wharton School Publishing, 2007.
[See: §32 "Certainty Equivalent Approach" & §165 "Risk Adjusted Discount Rate" in: ]
[Aswath Damodaran:]
Valuing Firms in Distress
Even when employed, however, these latter methods do not normally properly account for changes in risk over the project's lifecycle and hence fail to appropriately adapt the risk adjustment.
[Dan Latimore]
''Calculating value during uncertainty''
IBM Institute for Business Value
The Institute for Business Value (IBV) a calibrated concept of IBM - is a business research organization that focuses on managerial and economic issues faced by companies and governments around the world. It has offices in China, India, Ireland, ...
By contrast, ROV assumes that management is "active" and can "continuously" respond to market changes. Real options consider "all" scenarios (or
"states") and indicate the best corporate action in each of these
contingent events.
Because management adapts to each negative outcome by decreasing its exposure and to positive scenarios by scaling up, the firm benefits from uncertainty in the underlying market, achieving a lower variability of profits than under the commitment/NPV stance. The contingent nature of future profits in real option models is captured by employing the techniques developed for
financial options in the literature on
contingent claims analysis. Here the approach, known as risk-neutral valuation, consists in
adjusting the probability distribution for risk consideration, while discounting at the risk-free rate. This technique is also known as the "martingale" approach, and uses a
risk-neutral measure. For technical considerations here, see
below
Below may refer to:
*Earth
*Ground (disambiguation)
*Soil
*Floor
*Bottom (disambiguation)
Bottom may refer to:
Anatomy and sex
* Bottom (BDSM), the partner in a BDSM who takes the passive, receiving, or obedient role, to that of the top or ...
.
Given these different treatments, the real options value of a project is typically higher than the NPV – and the difference will be most marked in projects with major flexibility, contingency, and volatility.
As for
financial options higher
volatility of the underlying leads to higher value. (An application of Real Options Valuation in the Philippine banking industry exhibited that increased levels of income volatility may adversely affect option values on the loan portfolio, when the presence of information asymmetry is considered. In this case, increased volatility may limit the value of an option.) Part of the criticism (and subsequently slow adoption) of Real Options Valuation in practice and academe stems from the generally higher values for underlying assets these functions generate. However, studies have shown that these models are reliable estimators of underlying asset value, when input values are properly identified.
Options based valuation
Although there is much similarity between the modelling of real options and
financial options,
ROV is distinguished from the latter, in that it takes into account uncertainty about the future evolution of the parameters that determine the value of the project, ''coupled with'' management's ability to respond to the evolution of these parameters.
[Jenifer Piesse and Alexander Van de Putte. (2004)]
"Volatility estimation in Real Options"
8th Annual International Conference on Real Options
{{notability, date=March 2020
The Annual International Conference on Real Options: Theory Meets Practice is a yearly conference organized by the Real Options Group in cooperation with various top universities. Its stated aim is to "bring togethe ...
It is the combined effect of these that makes ROV technically more challenging than its alternatives.
When valuing the real option, the analyst must therefore consider the inputs to the valuation, the valuation method employed, and whether any technical limitations may apply. Conceptually, valuing a real option looks at the premium between inflows and outlays for a particular project. Inputs to the value of a real option (time, discount rates, volatility, cash inflows and outflows) are each affected by the terms of business, and external environmental factors that a project exists in. Terms of business as information regarding ownership, data collection costs, and patents, are formed in relation to political, environmental, socio-cultural, technological, environmental and legal factors that affect an industry. Just as terms of business are affected by external environmental factors, these same circumstances affect the volatility of returns, as well as the discount rate (as firm or project specific risk). Furthermore, the external environmental influences that affect an industry affect projections on expected inflows and outlays.
Valuation inputs
Given the similarity in valuation approach, the inputs required for modelling the real option correspond, generically, to those required for a financial option valuation.
The specific application, though, is as follows:
* The option's
underlying is the project in question – it is modelled in terms of:
**
Spot price: the starting or current
value of the project is required: this is usually based on management's "best guess" as to the gross value of the project's
cash flow
A cash flow is a real or virtual movement of money:
*a cash flow in its narrow sense is a payment (in a currency), especially from one central bank account to another; the term 'cash flow' is mostly used to describe payments that are expected ...
s and resultant
NPV;
**
Volatility: a measure for uncertainty as to the change in value over time is required:
*** the volatility in project value is generally used, usually derived via
monte carlo simulation
Monte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems that might be determini ...
;
sometimes the volatility of the first period's cash flows are preferred;
see
further under
Corporate finance
Corporate finance is the area of finance that deals with the sources of funding, the capital structure of corporations, the actions that managers take to increase the Value investing, value of the firm to the shareholders, and the tools and anal ...
for a discussion relating to the estimation of NPV and project volatility.
*** some analysts substitute a
listed security as a
proxy, using either its price volatility (
historical volatility
In finance, volatility (usually denoted by ''σ'') is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns.
Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices ...
), or, if options exist on this security, their
implied volatility.
**
Dividends generated by the underlying asset: As part of a project, the dividend equates to any income which could be derived from the real assets and paid to the owner. These reduce the appreciation of the asset.
* Option characteristics:
**
Strike price: this corresponds to any (non-recoverable) investment outlays, typically the prospective costs of the project. In general, management would proceed (i.e. the option would be
in the money) given that the
present value of expected cash flows exceeds this amount;
**
Option term: the time during which management may decide to act, or not act, corresponds to the life of the option. As above, examples include the time to expiry of a
patent, or of the
mineral rights for a new mine. See
Option time value. Note though that given the flexibility related to timing
as described, caution must be applied here.
**
Option style and
option exercise. Management's ability to respond to changes in value is modeled at each decision point as a series of options, as above these may comprise, i.a.:
*** the
option to contract
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?''
(ROV or ROA) applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.Campbe ...
the project (an
American styled put option
In finance, a put or put option is a derivative instrument in financial markets that gives the holder (i.e. the purchaser of the put option) the right to sell an asset (the ''underlying''), at a specified price (the ''strike''), by (or at) a s ...
);
*** the
option to abandon
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?''
(ROV or ROA) applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.Campbe ...
the project (also an American put);
*** the
option to expand or extend the project (both
American styled call option
In finance, a call option, often simply labeled a "call", is a contract between the buyer and the seller of the call option to exchange a security at a set price. The buyer of the call option has the right, but not the obligation, to buy an ...
s);
***
switching options or
composite option
Composite or compositing may refer to:
Materials
* Composite material, a material that is made from several different substances
** Metal matrix composite, composed of metal and other parts
** Cermet, a composite of ceramic and metallic materials
...
s which may also apply to the project.
Valuation methods
The valuation methods usually employed, likewise, are adapted from techniques developed for
valuing financial options.
Note though that, in general, while most "real" problems allow for
American style exercise at any point (many points) in the project's life and are impacted by multiple underlying variables, the standard methods are limited either with regard to dimensionality, to early exercise, or to both. In selecting a model, therefore, analysts must make a
trade off
A trade-off (or tradeoff) is a situational decision that involves diminishing or losing one quality, quantity, or property of a set or design in return for gains in other aspects. In simple terms, a tradeoff is where one thing increases, and anot ...
between these considerations; see . The model must also be flexible enough to allow for the relevant decision rule to be coded appropriately at each decision point.
*
Closed form,
Black–Scholes-like solutions are sometimes employed.
These are applicable only for
European styled options or perpetual American options. Note that this application of Black–Scholes assumes constant — i.e.
deterministic
Determinism is a philosophical view, where all events are determined completely by previously existing causes. Deterministic theories throughout the history of philosophy have developed from diverse and sometimes overlapping motives and consi ...
— costs: in cases where the project's costs, like its revenue, are also assumed stochastic, then
Margrabe's formula can (should) be applied instead,
[See Ch. 23, Sec. 5, in: Frank Reilly, Keith Brown (2011). "Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management." (10th Edition). South-Western College Pub. ] here valuing the option to "exchange" expenses for revenue. (Relatedly, where the project is exposed to two (or more) uncertainties — e.g. for natural resources, price and quantity — some analysts attempt to use an overall volatility; this, though, is more correctly treated as a
rainbow option,
typically valued using simulation as below.)
* The most commonly employed methods are
binomial lattices.
These are more widely used given that most real options are
American styled. Additionally, and particularly,
lattice-based models allow for flexibility as to exercise, where the relevant, and differing, rules may be encoded at each node.
Note that lattices cannot readily handle high-dimensional problems; treating the project's costs as stochastic would add (at least) one dimension to the lattice, increasing the number of ending-nodes
by the square (the exponent here, corresponding to the number of sources of uncertainty).
*
Specialised Monte Carlo Methods have also been developed and are increasingly, and especially, applied to
high-dimensional
In physics and mathematics, the dimension of a mathematical space (or object) is informally defined as the minimum number of coordinates needed to specify any point within it. Thus, a line has a dimension of one (1D) because only one coord ...
problems.
[Marco Dias]
''Real Options with Monte Carlo Simulation''
Note that for American styled real options, this application is somewhat more complex; although recent research combines a
least squares
The method of least squares is a standard approach in regression analysis to approximate the solution of overdetermined systems (sets of equations in which there are more equations than unknowns) by minimizing the sum of the squares of the res ...
approach with simulation, allowing for the valuation of real options which are both multidimensional and American styled; see .
* When the Real Option can be modelled using a
partial differential equation
In mathematics, a partial differential equation (PDE) is an equation which imposes relations between the various partial derivatives of a Multivariable calculus, multivariable function.
The function is often thought of as an "unknown" to be sol ...
, then
Finite difference methods for option pricing are sometimes applied. Although many of the early ROV articles discussed this method, its use is relatively uncommon today—particularly amongst practitioners—due to the required mathematical sophistication; these too cannot readily be used for high-dimensional problems.
Various other methods, aimed mainly at
practitioners, have been developed for real option valuation.
These typically use
cash-flow scenarios for the projection of the future pay-off distribution, and are not based on restricting assumptions similar to those that underlie the closed form (or even numeric) solutions discussed. The most recent additions include the
Datar–Mathews method,
fuzzy pay-off method, the simulation with optimised exercise thresholds method.
Limitations
The relevance of Real options, even as a thought framework, may be limited due to market, organizational and / or technical considerations.
[Ronald Fink]
Reality Check for Real Options
''CFO Magazine'', September, 2001 When the framework is employed, therefore, the analyst must first ensure that ROV is relevant to the project in question. These considerations are as follows.
Market characteristics
As discussed
above, the market and environment underlying the project must be one where "change is most evident", and the "source, trends and evolution" in product demand and supply, create the "flexibility, contingency, and volatility"
which result in optionality. Without this, the NPV framework would be more relevant.
Organizational considerations
Real options are "particularly important for businesses with a few key characteristics",
and may be less relevant otherwise.
In overview, it is important to consider the following in determining that the RO framework is applicable:
#Corporate strategy has to be adaptive to contingent events. Some corporations face organizational rigidities and are unable to react to market changes; in this case, the NPV approach is appropriate.
# Practically, the business must be positioned such that it has appropriate information flow, and opportunities to act. This will often be a
market leader and / or a firm enjoying
economies of scale and scope.
# Management must understand options, be able to identify and create them, and appropriately exercise them.
This contrasts with business leaders focused on maintaining the status quo and / or near-term accounting earnings.
# The
financial position of the business must be such that it has the ability to fund the project as, and when, required (i.e. issue shares, absorb further debt and / or use internally generated cash flow); see
Financial statement analysis. Management must, correspondingly, have appropriate access to this capital.
# Management must be in the position to exercise, in so far as some real options are proprietary (owned or exercisable by a single individual or a company) while others are shared (can (only) be exercised by many parties).
Technical considerations
Limitations as to the use of these models arise due to the contrast between Real Options and
financial options, for which these were originally developed.
[Don M. Chance and Pamela P. Peterson (2002)]
Real Options and Investment Valuation
The Research Foundation of AIMR
The main difference is that the
underlying is often not tradable – e.g. the factory owner cannot easily sell the factory upon which he has the option. Additionally, the real option itself may also not be tradeable – e.g. the factory owner cannot sell the right to extend his factory to another party, only he can make this decision (some real options, however, can be sold, e.g., ownership of a vacant lot of land is a real option to develop that land in the future). Even where a market exists – for the underlying or for the option – in most cases there is limited (or no)
market liquidity. Finally, even if the firm can actively adapt to market changes, it remains to determine the right paradigm to discount future claims
The difficulties, are then:
# As above, data issues arise as far as estimating key model inputs. Here, since the value or price of the underlying cannot be (directly) observed, there will always be some (much) uncertainty as to its value (i.e.
spot price) and
volatility (further complicated by uncertainty as to management's actions in the future).
# It is often difficult to capture the rules relating to exercise, and consequent actions by management. Further, a project may have a portfolio of embedded real options, some of which may be mutually exclusive.
# Theoretical difficulties, which are more serious, may also arise.
[See Marco Dias]
Does Risk-Neutral Valuation Mean that Investors Are Risk-Neutral?
/ref>
::*Option pricing models are built on rational pricing logic. Here, essentially: (a) it is presupposed that one can create a "hedged portfolio" comprising one option and "delta" shares of the underlying. (b) Arbitrage
In economics and finance, arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the ...
arguments then allow for the option's price to be estimated today; see . (c) When hedging of this sort is possible, since delta hedging and risk neutral pricing are ''mathematically'' identical, then risk neutral valuation may be applied, as is the case with most option pricing models. (d) Under ROV however, the option and (usually) its underlying are clearly not traded, and forming a hedging portfolio would be difficult, if not impossible.
::*Standard option models: (a) Assume that the risk characteristics of the underlying do not change over the life of the option, usually expressed via a constant volatility assumption. (b) Hence a standard, risk free rate may be applied as the discount rate at each decision point, allowing for risk neutral valuation. Under ROV, however: (a) managements' actions actually change the risk characteristics of the project in question, and hence (b) the Required rate of return could differ depending on what state was realised, and a premium over risk free would be required, invalidating (technically) the risk neutrality assumption.
These issues are addressed via several interrelated assumptions:
# As discussed above, the data issues are usually addressed using a simulation of the project, or a listed proxy. Various new methods – see for example those described above – also address these issues.
# Also as above, specific exercise rules can often be accommodated by coding these in a bespoke binomial tree; see:.
# The theoretical issues:
::*To use standard option pricing models here, despite the difficulties relating to rational pricing, practitioners adopt the "fiction" that the real option and the underlying project are both traded: the so called, Marketed Asset Disclaimer (MAD) approach. Although this is a strong assumption, it is pointed out that a similar fiction in fact underpins standard NPV / DCF valuation (and using simulation as above). See: and.
::*To address the fact that changing characteristics invalidate the use of a constant discount rate, some analysts use the " replicating portfolio approach", as opposed to Risk neutral valuation, and modify their models correspondingly. Under this approach, (a) we "replicate" the cash flows on the option by holding a risk free bond and the underlying in the correct proportions. Then, (b) since the cash flows of the option and the portfolio will ''always'' be identical, by arbitrage arguments their values may (must) be equated ''today'', and (c) ''no'' discounting is required. (For an alternative, modifying Black-Scholes, see: .)
History
Whereas business managers have been making capital investment decisions for centuries, the term "real option" is relatively new, and was coined by Professor Stewart Myers
Stewart Clay Myers is the Robert C. Merton Professor of Financial Economics at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
He is notable for his work on capital structure and innovations in capital budgeting and valuation, and has had a "remarkable influen ...
of the MIT Sloan School of Management in 1977. In 1930, Irving Fisher
Irving Fisher (February 27, 1867 – April 29, 1947) was an American economist, statistician, inventor, eugenicist and progressive social campaigner. He was one of the earliest American neoclassical economists, though his later work on debt def ...
wrote explicitly of the "options" available to a business owner ('' The Theory of Interest''
II.VIII
. The description of such opportunities as "real options", however, followed on the development of analytical techniques for financial options, such as Black–Scholes in 1973. As such, the term "real option" is closely tied to these option methods.
Real options are today an active field of academic research. Professor Lenos Trigeorgis Lenos Trigeorgis is the Bank of Cyprus Chair Professor of Finance in the School of Economics and Management, University of Cyprus. He is considered a leading authority on capital budgeting and strategy, having pioneered the field of real options, an ...
has been a leading name for many years, publishing several influential books and academic articles. Other pioneering academics in the field include Professors Michael Brennan, Eduardo Schwartz
Graham Davis
Gonzalo Cortazar
Han Smit
Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck
Robert Stephen Pindyck ( ; born January 5, 1945) is an American economist, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Professor of Economics and Finance at Sloan School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is also a research associate with the ...
(the latter two, authoring the pioneering text in the discipline). An academic conference on real options is organized yearly (Annual International Conference on Real Options
{{notability, date=March 2020
The Annual International Conference on Real Options: Theory Meets Practice is a yearly conference organized by the Real Options Group in cooperation with various top universities. Its stated aim is to "bring togethe ...
).
Amongst others, the concept was "popularized" by Michael J. Mauboussin Michael J. Mauboussin (born February 1964) heads consilient research at Morgan Stanley division Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Counterpoint Global, an open-end mutual fund. Previously, he was director of research at BlueMountain Capital and ...
, then chief U.S. investment strategist for Credit Suisse First Boston.[Michael J. Mauboussin, Credit Suisse First Boston, 1999]
''Get Real: Using Real Options in Security Analysis''
/ref> He uses real options to explain the gap between how the stock market prices some businesses and the " intrinsic value" for those businesses. Trigeorgis also has broadened exposure to real options through layman articles in publications such as The Wall Street Journal.[Lenos Trigeorgis, Rainer Brosch and Han Smit]
''Stay Loose''
copyright 2010 Dow Jones & Company
Dow Jones & Company, Inc. is an American publishing firm owned by News Corp and led by CEO Almar Latour.
The company publishes ''The Wall Street Journal'', ''Barron's'', ''MarketWatch'', ''Mansion Global'', ''Financial News'' and ''Private Equ ...
. This popularization is such that ROV is now a standard offering in postgraduate finance degrees, and often, even in MBA curricula at many Business Schools.
Recently, real options have been employed in business strategy, both for valuation purposes and as a conceptual framework
A conceptual framework is an analytical tool with several variations and contexts. It can be applied in different categories of work where an overall picture is needed. It is used to make conceptual distinctions and organize ideas. Strong conceptu ...
. The idea of treating strategic investments as options was popularized by Timothy Luehrman in two HBR articles:[Timothy Luehrman: "Investment Opportunities as Real Options: Getting Started on the Numbers". '' Harvard Business Review'' 76, no. 4 (July – August 1998): 51–67.; "Strategy as a Portfolio of Real Options". ''Harvard Business Review'' 76, no. 5 (September–October 1998): 87-99.] "In financial terms, a business strategy is much more like a series of options, than a series of static cash flows". Investment opportunities are plotted in an "option space" with dimensions "volatility" & value-to-cost ("NPVq").
Luehrman also co-authored with William Teichner a Harvard Business School case study, ''Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project'', in 1992, which may have been the first business school case study to teach ROV.[Timothy A. Luehrman and William A. Teichner]
"Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project."
'' Harvard Business School Publishing'' case no. 9-292-140 (1992) Reflecting the "mainstreaming" of ROV, Professor Robert C. Merton discussed the essential points of Arundel in his Nobel Prize Lecture in 1997.[Robert Merton, Nobel Lecture]
''Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later''
Pages 107, 115; reprinted: ''American Economic Review
The ''American Economic Review'' is a monthly peer-reviewed academic journal published by the American Economic Association. First published in 1911, it is considered one of the most prestigious and highly distinguished journals in the field of ec ...
'', American Economic Association
The American Economic Association (AEA) is a learned society in the field of economics. It publishes several peer-reviewed journals acknowledged in business and academia. There are some 23,000 members.
History and Constitution
The AEA was esta ...
, vol. 88(3), pages 323–49, June. Arundel involves a group of investors that is considering acquiring the sequel rights to a portfolio of yet-to-be released feature films. In particular, the investors must determine the value of the sequel rights before any of the first films are produced. Here, the investors face two main choices. They can produce an original movie and sequel at the same time ''or'' they can wait to decide on a sequel after the original film is released. The second approach, he states, provides the option ''not'' to make a sequel in the event the original movie is not successful. This real option has economic worth and can be valued monetarily using an option-pricing model. See Option (filmmaking).
See also
* Option contract
* Opportunity cost
In microeconomic theory, the opportunity cost of a particular activity is the value or benefit given up by engaging in that activity, relative to engaging in an alternative activity. More effective it means if you chose one activity (for example ...
* Monte Carlo methods in finance
* Contingent claim valuation
* Fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation
* Datar–Mathews method for real option valuation The Datar–Mathews Method (DM Method) is a method for real options valuation. The method provides an easy way to determine the real option value of a project simply by using the average of positive outcomes for the project. The method can be unders ...
*
*
*
*
*
*Contingent value rights
In corporate finance,
Contingent Value Rights (CVR) are rights granted by an acquirer to a company’s shareholders, facilitating the transaction where some uncertainty is inherent.
CVRs may be separately tradeable securities; they are occasiona ...
References
Further reading
Standard texts:
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Applications:
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*Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," '' Journal of Financial Economics'', Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397–416, June.
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The Impact of Real Options in Agency Problems
G. Siller-Pagaza, G. Otalora, E. Cobas-Flores (2006).
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External links
Theory
Intro to Real Option Valuation as a Modelling Problem
Mikael Collan
The Promise and Peril of Real Options
Prof. Aswath Damodaran, Stern School of Business
The New York University Leonard N. Stern School of Business (commonly referred to as NYU Stern, The Stern School of Business, or simply Stern) is the business school of New York University, a private research university based in New York City. I ...
Real Options Tutorial
Prof. Marco Dias, PUC-Rio
Valuing Real Options: Frequently Made Errors
Prof. Pablo Fernandez, IESE Business School, University of Navarra
Identifying real options
Prof. Campbell R. Harvey. Duke University
Duke University is a private research university in Durham, North Carolina. Founded by Methodists and Quakers in the present-day city of Trinity in 1838, the school moved to Durham in 1892. In 1924, tobacco and electric power industrialist James ...
, Fuqua School of Business
An introduction to real options
( Investment Analysts Society of Southern Africa), Prof E. Gilbert, University of Cape Town
Decision Making Under Uncertainty—Real Options to the Rescue?
Prof. Luke Miller & Chan Park, Auburn University
Auburn University (AU or Auburn) is a public land-grant research university in Auburn, Alabama. With more than 24,600 undergraduate students and a total enrollment of more than 30,000 with 1,330 faculty members, Auburn is the second largest uni ...
Real Options Whitepapers and Case-studies
Dr. Jonathan Mun
Real Options – Introduction
Portfolion Group
How Do You Assess The Value of A Company's "Real Options"?
Prof. Alfred Rappaport Columbia University and Michael Mauboussin
Some Important Issues Involving Real Options: An Overview
Gordon Sick and Andrea Gamba (2005).
Real Power of Real Options, Leslie and Michaels (1997)
Keith Leslie and Max Michaels McKinsey Quarterly, 1997 (3) pages 4–22. Cited by Robert Merton in his Nobel Prize Acceptance Speech in 1997. McKinsey classic - Reprinted in McKinsey Anthology 2000 - On Strategy. Cited in McKinsey Anthology 2011 - Have You Tested Your Strategy Lately.
Journals
Journal of Real Options
Journal of Real Options and Strategy
Calculation resources
Prof. Aswath Damodaran, Stern School of Business
Prof. Steven T. Hackman, Georgia Institute of Technology
{{DEFAULTSORT:Real Options Analysis
Corporate finance
Options (finance)
Capital budgeting