Peak car (also peak car use or peak travel) is a

hypothesis A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous obse ...

that

motor vehicle A motor vehicle, also known as motorized vehicle or automotive vehicle, is a self-propelled land vehicle, commonly wheeled, that does not operate on rails (such as trains or trams) and is used for the transportation of people or cargo. The ...

distance traveled

per capita ''Per capita'' is a Latin phrase literally meaning "by heads" or "for each head", and idiomatically used to mean "per person". The term is used in a wide variety of social sciences and statistical research contexts, including government statistic ...

, predominantly by

private Private or privates may refer to: Music * " In Private", by Dusty Springfield from the 1990 album ''Reputation'' * Private (band), a Denmark-based band * "Private" (Ryōko Hirosue song), from the 1999 album ''Private'', written and also recorde ...

car, has peaked and will now fall in a sustained manner. The theory was developed as an alternative to the prevailing market saturation model, which suggested that car use would saturate and then remain reasonably constant, or to GDP-based theories which predict that traffic will increase again as the economy improves, linking recent traffic reductions to the

Great Recession The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline, i.e. a recession, observed in national economies globally that occurred from late 2007 into 2009. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country (see map). At ...

of 2008. The theory was proposed following reductions, which have now been observed in Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, Japan (early 1990s), New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom (many cities from about 1994) and the United States. A study by Volpe Transportation in 2013 noted that average miles driven by individuals in the United States has been declining from per month in 2004 to in July 2012, and that the decline had continued since the recent upturn in the US economy. A number of academics have written in support of the theory, including Phil Goodwin, formerly Director of the transport research groups at Oxford University and UCL, and David Metz, a former Chief Scientist of the UK Department of Transport. The theory is disputed by the

UK Department for Transport The Department for Transport (DfT) is a department of His Majesty's Government responsible for the English transport network and a limited number of transport matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland that have not been devolved. The d ...

, which predicts that road traffic in the United Kingdom will grow by 50% by 2036, and Professor Stephen Glaister, Director of the

RAC Foundation The RAC Foundation (The Royal Automobile Club Foundation for Motoring) is a registered charity. It is a transport policy and research organisation that explores the economic, mobility, safety and environmental issues relating to roads and their ...

, who say traffic will start increasing again as the economy improves. Unlike

peak oil Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; whil ...

, a theory based on a reduction in the ability to extract oil due to

resource depletion Resource depletion is the consumption of a resource faster than it can be replenished. Natural resources are commonly divided between renewable resources and non-renewable resources (see also mineral resource classification). Use of eith ...

, peak car is attributed to more complex and less understood causes.

History

Saturation model

The idea that car ownership would reach a saturation level and stop growing further has been around since at least 1925 when, for example, Miller McClintock noted that " e most widely accepted estimate of the saturation point is five-to-one, that is, one automobile for every five persons". McClintock also predicted

induced traffic In economics, induced demand – related to latent demand and generated demandSchneider, Benjamin (September 6, 2018"CityLab University: Induced Demand"''CityLab'' – is the phenomenon whereby an increase in supply results in a decline ...

: "the density of traffic will always approach a point of complete saturation. nincrease in street capacity ... will not reduce the density of traffic, for the places thus made available, will be taken by those drivers who may be said to be on the margin of convenience". In

Traffic in Towns ''Traffic in Towns'' was an influential report and popular book on urban and transport planning policy published 25 November 1963 for the UK Ministry of Transport by a team headed by the architect, civil engineer and planner Colin Buchanan. ...

, a report produced in 1963 for the UK

Ministry of Transport A ministry of transport or transportation is a ministry responsible for transportation within a country. It usually is administered by the ''minister for transport''. The term is also sometimes applied to the departments or other government ...

Professor Sir Colin Buchanan Sir Colin Douglas Buchanan CBE (22 August 1907 – 6 December 2001) was a Scottish town planner. He became Britain's most famous transport planner following the publication of ''Traffic in Towns'' in 1963, which presented a comprehensive view ...

suggested that traffic would saturate early in the 21st century. It has certainly been used in official traffic forecasting since the 1970s, for example in a UK Government study by Tulpule (1973) which forecast that car

ownership Ownership is the state or fact of legal possession and control over property, which may be any asset, tangible or intangible. Ownership can involve multiple rights, collectively referred to as title, which may be separated and held by different ...

would reach its maximum level by about 2010, with car use showing little further growth after that point. In a series of international comparisons starting in 1993 and continuing until his death in 2011, the American researcher Lee Schipper and his colleagues noted that car traffic growth had slowed or ceased in a number of developed economies.

'Peak car' theory

The 'peak car' hypothesis was proposed after declines in traffic during the morning peak period were observed from the mid 1990s in some places and at a national level since about 2008. ''Local Transport Today'', a professional transport journal in the United Kingdom, reported that the number "peak car traffic" entering Britain's town and city centres during the morning

peak hour A rush hour (American English, British English) or peak hour (Australian English) is a part of the day during which traffic congestion on roads and crowding on public transport is at its highest. Normally, this happens twice every weekday: on ...

s had declined significantly over the previous ten years; of 21 areas studied all except Leeds had seen falls. Traffic into London during the morning peak period had fallen 28% between 1994 and 2003 when the

London congestion charge The London congestion charge is a fee charged on most cars and motor vehicles being driven within the Congestion Charge Zone (CCZ) in Central London between 7:00 am and 6:00 pm Monday to Friday, and between 12:00 noon and 6:00 pm Saturday an ...

was introduced and a further 12% by 2004. Inbound car trip into Birmingham during the morning peak period had fallen by 29% between 1995 and 2003. Between June and September 2010 Professor Phil Goodwin published a series of articles in the UK professional transport press suggesting that data showed not merely a plateau in vehicle miles driven but rather a decline in overall automobile usage per capita. These articles were later compiled and updated in a journal article by Goodwin, published in 2011. David Metz, of

University College London , mottoeng = Let all come who by merit deserve the most reward , established = , type = Public research university , endowment = £143 million (2020) , budget = ...

and former Chief Scientist of the UK Department of Transport noted that "peak car use came and went

n the UK N, or n, is the fourteenth letter in the Latin alphabet, used in the modern English alphabet, the alphabets of other western European languages and others worldwide. Its name in English is ''en'' (pronounced ), plural ''ens''. History ...

at least 15 years ago, when none of us noticed". He then published articles in 2010 and 2012 suggesting that the Department's forecasts of growth were erroneous because in the UK a saturated peak level had already been reached. In November 2010 by Millard-Ball and Schipper presented data confirming the trend in cities in eight nations: United States, Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and Australia. Newman and Kenworthy published an article in June 2011 suggesting that the effect was also valid for Australia. By 2016, several papers have cast doubt on the peak car phenomenon, demonstrating that economic and sociodemographic factors account for most or all of the observed slowdowns. Recent statistics in the US show total vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) increasing after several years of decline, although per-capita VMT remains below its all-time high.

Proposed causes

There is speculation about causes of a decline in automobile usage. Analysts such as Newman as well as views expressed in the journal edited by Melia entitled ''World Transport Policy and Practice'' point to various interrelated causes. Factors include: # Travel time budgets, a theoretical psychological limit suggesting a long term constraint on the amount of time people allocate to travel of about one hour a day. Studies using this concept (albeit not always defined in the same way) have included those of Zahavi (1974), Mogridge (1983) and Metz (2010) who suggested that saturation would naturally follow from the observation that access to destinations increased with the square of speed, but was offset by the tendency for each additional choice of destination to offer less and less extra benefit. A version was suggested by Marchetti, sometimes called 'the Marchetti Wall'; when cities become more than "one hour wide," they stop growing or they become dysfunctional, or both. # The growth of

public transport Public transport (also known as public transportation, public transit, mass transit, or simply transit) is a system of transport for passengers by group travel systems available for use by the general public unlike private transport, typi ...

. For example, railway travel in the

United Kingdom The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and ...

has been undergoing a renaissance, according to one view. In the US

Amtrak The National Railroad Passenger Corporation, doing business as Amtrak () , is the national passenger railroad company of the United States. It operates inter-city rail service in 46 of the 48 contiguous U.S. States and nine cities in Canada. ...

has posted record ridership for every year since 2000 with the exception of 2009. # The reversal of

urban sprawl Urban sprawl (also known as suburban sprawl or urban encroachment) is defined as "the spreading of urban developments (such as houses and shopping centers) on undeveloped land near a city." Urban sprawl has been described as the unrestricted growt ...

and other population shifts from suburbs to cities. # The growth of a culture of

urbanism Urbanism is the study of how inhabitants of urban areas, such as towns and cities, interact with the built environment. It is a direct component of disciplines such as urban planning, which is the profession focusing on the physical design and ...

. # The ageing of cities, especially their road infrastructure, much of which is at or near the end of its intended life. # Rising fuel prices. # Increasing costs of automobile ownership,Paul A. Eisenstein of The Detroit Bureau, August 30, 2013, MSNBC
Americans drive less even as economy rebounds
Accessed Sept. 1, 2013 including costs for insurance and parking. # Traffic-reducing policies such as the "pedestrianisation" of city centres, traffic calming,

parking Parking is the act of stopping and disengaging a vehicle and leaving it unoccupied. Parking on one or both sides of a road is often permitted, though sometimes with restrictions. Some buildings have parking facilities for use of the buildings' ...

control, congestion charging. # Proliferation of different ways to own and hire vehicles, such as

Streetcar A tram (called a streetcar or trolley in North America) is a rail vehicle that travels on tramway tracks on public urban streets; some include segments on segregated right-of-way. The tramlines or networks operated as public transport a ...

Zipcar Zipcar is an American car-sharing company and a subsidiary of Avis Budget Group. Zipcar provides vehicle reservations to its members, billable by the minute, hour or day; members may have to pay a monthly or annual membership fee in addition ...

, and Whipcar, as well as other options for car sharing. # Reallocation of road capacity away from cars towards bikes and pedestrian traffic resulting in disappearing traffic. # Cultural shifts especially among young people for whom acquisition of a driving licence is now seen less as a key

rite of passage A rite of passage is a ceremony or ritual of the passage which occurs when an individual leaves one group to enter another. It involves a significant change of social status, status in society. In cultural anthropology the term is the Anglicisat ...

into adulthood, and is reflected in recent reductions in the propensity of young people to acquire driving licences. One report suggests there has been a shift in notions about status: the car is no longer a "big prestige item" as in previous decades. For millennials and digital natives, there is less focus on ownership of things, especially big-ticket items such as cars.

Millennials Millennials, also known as Generation Y or Gen Y, are the Western demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 20 ...

see cars as "mere appliances—unnecessary, pricey ones that they’ll try to avoid". # Legal restrictions; for example, restrictions on teenagers seeking driving licences. # Demographic changes; for example,

baby boomer Baby boomers, often shortened to boomers, are the Western demographic cohort following the Silent Generation and preceding Generation X. The generation is often defined as people born from 1946 to 1964, during the mid-20th century baby boom. ...

s drive less as they age, according to one view. # Economic factors, particularly unemployment. # ''Saturation of demand'' in the sense that there has been a "levelling-off" of possible places to travel to by car. According to this view, when road networks were expanding, there were numerous options of new places to drive to, but as road networks have generally stopped expanding, the demand for increased car travel has become saturated. # Growth of

e-commerce E-commerce (electronic commerce) is the activity of electronically buying or selling of products on online services or over the Internet. E-commerce draws on technologies such as mobile commerce, electronic funds transfer, supply chain manag ...

such as tele-shopping, conferences, and

smartphone A smartphone is a portable computer device that combines mobile telephone and computing functions into one unit. They are distinguished from feature phones by their stronger hardware capabilities and extensive mobile operating systems, whi ...

or computer-based social networks. According to this view, these developments have reduced the need for travel by car, such that the "love affair with the phone" has replaced the "love affair with the car" for a proportion of the population, and that widespread use of cell phones and

Skype Skype () is a proprietary telecommunications application operated by Skype Technologies, a division of Microsoft, best known for VoIP-based videotelephony, videoconferencing and voice calls. It also has instant messaging, file transfer, debi ...

meant there was less need for in-person visits.Julia Pyper and ClimateWire, Scientific American
Has the U.S. Reached "Peak Car"? Traffic is easing as more Americans are deciding to drive less, sell their cars or not buy one at all
Accessed Sept. 1, 2013 However, a contrasting view suggested that e-commerce was not a substantial factor explaining less car travel in the

United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country Continental United States, primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 U.S. state, states, a Washington, D.C., ...

. Still, countries with higher use of the

Internet The Internet (or internet) is the global system of interconnected computer networks that uses the Internet protocol suite (TCP/IP) to communicate between networks and devices. It is a '' network of networks'' that consists of private, p ...

correlated with fewer 20- to 24-year-olds getting drivers' licenses. One analyst explained about changing attitudes of young people: Another elaborated about the ''saturation of demand'' hypothesis: The proposition that car usage has peaked has been disputed regarding vehicle usage in the United Kingdom. In December 2010, Stephen Glaister, the Director of the

, suggested that total traffic has grown more or less as a straight line since the 1950s and such growth will recommence when economic conditions improve; in 2011, the UK

Department for Transport The Department for Transport (DfT) is a department of His Majesty's Government responsible for the English transport network and a limited number of transport matters in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland that have not been devolved. The ...

predicted a 50% growth in traffic in the coming 25 years. In addition, a corroborating view by Paul Watters suggested that car usage will continue to be important in Britain, and that there won't be “shattering change” by 2020. Scholars studying transport and socio-technical transitions have elaborated possible future scenarios for car use in England and the Netherlands. The advent of

autonomous car A self-driving car, also known as an autonomous car, driver-less car, or robotic car (robo-car), is a car that is capable of traveling without human input.Xie, S.; Hu, J.; Bhowmick, P.; Ding, Z.; Arvin, F.,Distributed Motion Planning for Sa ...

s is likely to accelerate the decline in car ownership. A recent case study by the OECD

International Transport Forum The International Transport Forum (ITF) is an inter-governmental organisation within the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) system. It is the only global body with a mandate for all modes of transport. It acts as a t ...

suggested

Lisbon Lisbon (; pt, Lisboa ) is the capital and largest city of Portugal, with an estimated population of 544,851 within its administrative limits in an area of 100.05 km2. Lisbon's urban area extends beyond the city's administrative limits w ...

could maintain current levels of mobility with an autonomous car share fleet one tenth the size of its current vehicle fleet.

Countries

* Australia * Belgium * Canada * France * Germany * Japan * New Zealand * Norway * South Korea * Spain * Sweden * United Kingdom * United States :Note, in

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, most populous country, with a Population of China, population exceeding 1.4 billion, slig ...

there is a forecast of tremendous growth in car ownership and travel, although there is also greater awareness of environmental issues as well as issues of inequality between car-owners and non-owners.Tania Branigan, 14 December 2012, The Guardian
China and cars: a love story -- China is now the world's biggest market for new cars. Its motorway network will soon rival America's. But while the rich splash out on Porsches and Ferraris, resentment is growing among the have-nots
Accessed Sept. 1, 2013

Declines in specific countries

Germany

The city of

Hamburg Hamburg (, ; nds, label=Hamburg German, Low Saxon, Hamborg ), officially the Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg (german: Freie und Hansestadt Hamburg; nds, label=Low Saxon, Friee un Hansestadt Hamborg),. is the List of cities in Germany by popul ...

in its so-called ''Green Network Plan'', is considering ways of phasing out automobile traffic in the city center over the next two decades by increasing public transportation and adding special routes for cyclists and people on foot.

United Kingdom

One report suggested driving in the

has been declining since 1990. The number of 17- to 20-year-olds with driving licences declined from 48% during the early-1990s to 35% in 2011, according to one report.Alex Rayner, 25 September 2011, The Guardian
The end of motoring: Young people today would rather have the latest smartphone than a flashy car. And the number of them who can drive is plummeting. Is Britain's love-affair with the car really over?
Accessed Sept. 1, 2013 Traffic by cars and taxis has declined since 2007. One report suggested renewed growth in rail travel, such that there was a "rail renaissance" underway.The Guardian, 28 January 2013
High-speed rail: tracks through the haze: A £32bn investment in HS2 means the government is pressing full-steam ahead with its far in the future transport policy
Accessed Sept. 1, 2013 The City of

London London is the capital and List of urban areas in the United Kingdom, largest city of England and the United Kingdom, with a population of just under 9 million. It stands on the River Thames in south-east England at the head of a estuary dow ...

has been experiencing a fall in the number of cars on the roads. In 2022 the British Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported a second consecutive year of declining car ownership.

United States

A report in ''

Time Magazine ''Time'' (stylized in all caps) is an American news magazine based in New York City. For nearly a century, it was published weekly, but starting in March 2020 it transitioned to every other week. It was first published in New York City on Ma ...

'' suggested Americans are "driving less and less each year."Brad Tuttle, Sept. 25, 2012, Time Magazine
What Happens When We Reach ‘Peak Car’?
Accessed Sep. 1, 2013 It noted that fewer Americans were "commuting solo" to work. Road congestion nationwide declined by 27% in 2011. There is some evidence of a generational shift. For example, one 24-year-old with a car moved to Washington, D.C. for work purposes but did not take her car, and she explained: According to transportation consultant Roy Kienitz, driving habits began to change in 2004 before the 2007-2010 recession started.

Cities

Declines of total 'vehicle kilometers traveled' (vkt) in selected cities as reported in the research: