A progress trap is the condition human societies experience when, in pursuing
progress
Progress is the movement towards a refined, improved, or otherwise desired state. In the context of progressivism, it refers to the proposition that advancements in technology, science, and social organization have resulted, and by extension w ...
through human ingenuity, they inadvertently introduce problems that they do not have the resources or the political will to solve for fear of short-term losses in status, stability or quality of life. This prevents further progress and sometimes leads to
societal collapse
Societal collapse (also known as civilizational collapse) is the fall of a complex human society characterized by the loss of cultural identity and of socioeconomic complexity, the downfall of government, and the rise of violence. Possible cause ...
.
The syndrome appears to have been first described by Walter Von Krämer in his series of 1989 articles under the title ''Fortschrittsfalle Medizin''. The specific neologism "progress trap" was introduced independently in 1990 by Daniel B. O'Leary with his study of the behavioral aspects of the condition: ''The Progress Trap – Science, Humanity and Environment''.
The term later gained attention after the
historian
A historian is a person who studies and writes about the past and is regarded as an authority on it. Historians are concerned with the continuous, methodical narrative and research of past events as relating to the human race; as well as the st ...
and
novelist
A novelist is an author or writer of novels, though often novelists also write in other genres of both fiction and non-fiction. Some novelists are professional novelists, thus make a living writing novels and other fiction, while others asp ...
Surviving Progress
''Surviving Progress'' is a 2011 Canadian documentary film written and directed by Mathieu Roy and Harold Crooks, loosely based on '' A Short History of Progress'', a book and a 2004 Massey Lecture series by Ronald Wright about societal collapse ...
'', backed by Martin Scorsese, the concept achieved wider recognition.
Overview
While the idea is not new, Wright identifies the central problem as being one of scale and political will. According to him, the error is often to extrapolate from what appears to work well on a small scale to a larger scale, which depletes natural resources and causes environmental degradation. Large-scale implementation also tends to be subject to
diminishing returns
In economics, diminishing returns are the decrease in marginal (incremental) output of a production process as the amount of a single factor of production is incrementally increased, holding all other factors of production equal ( ceteris parib ...
. As
overpopulation
Overpopulation or overabundance is a phenomenon in which a species' population becomes larger than the carrying capacity of its environment. This may be caused by increased birth rates, lowered mortality rates, reduced predation or large scal ...
,
erosion
Erosion is the action of surface processes (such as water flow or wind) that removes soil, rock, or dissolved material from one location on the Earth's crust, and then transports it to another location where it is deposited. Erosion is dis ...
,
greenhouse gas emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities strengthen the greenhouse effect, contributing to climate change. Most is carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas. The largest emitters include coal in China and ...
or other consequences become apparent, society is destabilized.
In a progress trap, those in positions of authority are unwilling to make changes necessary for future survival. To do so they would need to sacrifice their current status and political power at the top of a hierarchy. They may also be unable to raise public support and the necessary economic resources, even if they try. Deforestation and erosion in ancient Greece may be an example of the latter.
A new source of natural resources can provide a reprieve. The European discovery and exploitation of the "New World" is one example of this, but seems unlikely to be repeated today. Present global civilization has covered the planet to such an extent there are no new resources in sight. Wright concludes that if not averted by some other means, collapse will be on a global scale, if or when it comes. Current economic crises, population problems and global climate change are symptoms that highlight the interdependence of current national economies and ecologies.
The problem has deep historical roots, probably dating back to the origins of life on Earth 3.8 billion years ago. In the early Stone Age, improved hunting techniques in vulnerable areas caused the extinction of many prey species, leaving the enlarged populace without an adequate food supply. The only apparent alternative,
agriculture
Agriculture or farming is the practice of cultivating plants and livestock. Agriculture was the key development in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created food surpluses that enabled people t ...
, also proved to be a progress trap. Salination, deforestation, erosion and urban sprawl led to disease, malnutrition and so forth, hence shorter lives.
Almost any sphere of
technology
Technology is the application of knowledge to reach practical goals in a specifiable and Reproducibility, reproducible way. The word ''technology'' may also mean the product of such an endeavor. The use of technology is widely prevalent in me ...
can prove to be a progress trap, as in the example of
medicine
Medicine is the science and practice of caring for a patient, managing the diagnosis, prognosis, prevention, treatment, palliation of their injury or disease, and promoting their health. Medicine encompasses a variety of health care pr ...
and its possibly inadequate response to the drawbacks of the high-density agricultural practices (e.g. factory farming) it has enabled. Wright uses
weapon
A weapon, arm or armament is any implement or device that can be used to deter, threaten, inflict physical damage, harm, or kill. Weapons are used to increase the efficacy and efficiency of activities such as hunting, crime, law enforcement, ...
technology
Technology is the application of knowledge to reach practical goals in a specifiable and Reproducibility, reproducible way. The word ''technology'' may also mean the product of such an endeavor. The use of technology is widely prevalent in me ...
gradually reaching the threat of total nuclear destruction to illustrate this point. Ultimately, Wright strives to counter at least the Victorian notion of "modernity" as unconditionally a good thing.
Behavioral causes
In ''Escaping the progress trap'', O'Leary examines historical and scientific evidence for patterns and underlying causes of progress traps, arguing that individual behaviour is a contributing factor. He presents research from the neurosciences, notably the work of Roger W. Sperry and adherents in the field of
lateralization of brain function
The lateralization of brain function is the tendency for some neural functions or cognitive processes to be specialized to one side of the brain or the other. The median longitudinal fissure separates the human brain into two distinct cerebr ...
. His study relates how individuals, institutions and societies can become invested in technocratic instruments in the service of short-term interests. In this scenario, humans diverge from a default interdependence with nature resulting in technical preoccupations that gradually inhibit innovative problem solving, thus compromising long-term survival. Where advances result from technical specialization and are harmful—such as desertification resulting from
irrigation
Irrigation (also referred to as watering) is the practice of applying controlled amounts of water to land to help grow crops, landscape plants, and lawns. Irrigation has been a key aspect of agriculture for over 5,000 years and has been devel ...
—the trend compounds itself and can be irreversible, with collapse of the enterprise following. Examples are Sumer and the Indus Valley civilization where irrigation canals slowly combined to increase soil salinity, preventing the land from supporting harvests on which populations relied. The decline of
Seymour Cray
Seymour Roger Cray (September 28, 1925 – October 5, 1996 ) was an American
Control Data Corporation is a modern case. Continuing
oil consumption
Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while ...
in a time of
climate change
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to ...
is an illustration of the problem; sustainable development is viewed as a solution.
O'Leary notes that progress traps are not limited to technology; the Medieval Church's rejection of Roger Bacon's science follows a pattern where the institution itself inhibits solutions to problems arising from its development. He asserts that behavioural contributors to the syndrome can be mitigated in balancing technical endeavour with creative and cultural development, so that individuals and societies are not pre-eminently
technocratic
Technocracy is a form of government in which the decision-maker or makers are selected based on their expertise in a given area of responsibility, particularly with regard to scientific or technical knowledge. This system explicitly contrasts wi ...
.
Iain McGilchrist's 2009 book ''
The Master and His Emissary
''The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World'' is a 2009 book written by psychiatrist Iain McGilchrist that deals with the specialist hemispheric functioning of the brain. The differing world views of the ri ...
'', provides neurological insight into behaviors where predominant attention to short-term interests might compromise long-term outcomes.
Art
Aurora Picture Show, a
microcinema The term "microcinema" can have two meanings. It can describe low-budget or amateur films shot mostly on digital video, edited on a computer, and then distributed via videotape, disc or over the Internet. Or it can describe a mode of low-budget exhi ...
in Houston, Texas has released a collection of "informational videos by artists who use recent technological tools for purposes other than what they were designed to do and, in some instances, in direct opposition to their intended use". The title of the DVD is ''At your service: Escaping the Progress Trap''.Grover, A. ''At your service: Escaping the Progress Trap'' Artlies Magazine , included with the Spring '08 issue of Art Lies Contemporary Art Magazine
See also
*
Cultural lag The difference between material culture and non-material culture is known as cultural lag. The term cultural lag refers to the notion that culture takes time to catch up with technological innovations, and the resulting social problems that are cau ...
*
Escalation of commitment
Escalation of commitment is a human behavior pattern in which an individual or group facing increasingly negative outcomes from a decision, action, or investment nevertheless continue the behavior instead of altering course. The actor maintains ...
, also known as irrational escalation
* Prosophobia
*
Resilience (ecology)
In ecology, resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem to respond to a perturbation or disturbance by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Such perturbations and disturbances can include stochastic events such as fires, flooding, windstorm ...
*
Societal collapse
Societal collapse (also known as civilizational collapse) is the fall of a complex human society characterized by the loss of cultural identity and of socioeconomic complexity, the downfall of government, and the rise of violence. Possible cause ...
*
System justification
System justification theory (SJT) is a theory within social psychology that system-justifying beliefs serve a psychologically palliative function. It proposes that people have several underlying needs, which vary from individual to individual, that ...
Joseph Tainter
Joseph Anthony Tainter (born December 8, 1949) is an American anthropologist and historian.
Biography
Tainter studied anthropology at the University of California, Berkeley and Northwestern University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1975. he hol ...
*''Progress and its Problems: Towards a Theory of Scientific Growth'', by
Larry Laudan
Larry Laudan (; October 16, 1941 – August 23, 2022) was an American philosopher of science and epistemologist. He strongly criticized the traditions of positivism, realism, and relativism, and he defended a view of science as a privileged an ...
1977
*''The Empty Raincoat: Making sense of the future'' by
Charles Handy
Charles Brian Handy CBE (born 25 July 1932) is an Irish author/philosopher specialising in organisational behaviour and management. Among the ideas he has advanced are the " portfolio career" and the " Shamrock Organization" (in which professi ...
1995. US version: ''The Age of Paradox''
* (Hardcover)