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In
theology Theology is the study of religious belief from a Religion, religious perspective, with a focus on the nature of divinity. It is taught as an Discipline (academia), academic discipline, typically in universities and seminaries. It occupies itse ...
and
philosophy Philosophy ('love of wisdom' in Ancient Greek) is a systematic study of general and fundamental questions concerning topics like existence, reason, knowledge, Value (ethics and social sciences), value, mind, and language. It is a rational an ...
, probabilism (from
Latin Latin ( or ) is a classical language belonging to the Italic languages, Italic branch of the Indo-European languages. Latin was originally spoken by the Latins (Italic tribe), Latins in Latium (now known as Lazio), the lower Tiber area aroun ...
''probare'', to test, approve) is an ancient Greek doctrine of
academic skepticism Academic skepticism refers to the philosophical skepticism, skeptical period of the Platonic Academy, Academy dating from around 266 BCE, when Arcesilaus became scholarch, until around 90 BCE, when Antiochus of Ascalon rejected skepticism, altho ...
. It holds that in the absence of certainty, plausibility or truth-likeness is the best criterion. The term can also refer to a 17th-century religious thesis about ethics, or a modern physical–philosophical thesis.


Philosophy


Ancient

In
ancient Greek philosophy Ancient Greek philosophy arose in the 6th century BC. Philosophy was used to make sense of the world using reason. It dealt with a wide variety of subjects, including astronomy, epistemology, mathematics, political philosophy, ethics, metaphysics ...
, probabilism referred to the doctrine which gives assistance in ordinary matters to one who is skeptical in respect of the possibility of real knowledge: it supposes that though knowledge is impossible, a man may rely on strong beliefs in practical affairs. This view was held by the skeptics of the
New Academy The Academy (), variously known as Plato's Academy, or the Platonic Academy, was founded in Athens by Plato ''circa'' 387 BC. The academy is regarded as the first institution of higher education in the west, where subjects as diverse as biolog ...
. Academic skeptics accept probabilism, while Pyrrhonian skeptics do not.


Modern

In modern usage, a probabilist is someone who believes that central epistemological issues are best approached using probabilities. This thesis is neutral with respect to whether knowledge entails certainty or whether skepticism about knowledge is true. Probabilist doctrines continue to be debated in the context of
artificial general intelligence Artificial general intelligence (AGI)—sometimes called human‑level intelligence AI—is a type of artificial intelligence that would match or surpass human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks. Some researchers argue that sta ...
, as a counterpoint to the use of
non-monotonic logic A non-monotonic logic is a formal logic whose entailment relation is not monotonic. In other words, non-monotonic logics are devised to capture and represent defeasible inferences, i.e., a kind of inference in which reasoners draw tentative concl ...
, as the proper form for
knowledge representation Knowledge representation (KR) aims to model information in a structured manner to formally represent it as knowledge in knowledge-based systems whereas knowledge representation and reasoning (KRR, KR&R, or KR²) also aims to understand, reason, and ...
remains unclear.


Theology

In
moral theology Ethics involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts of right and wrong behavior.''Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy''"Ethics" A central aspect of ethics is "the good life", the life worth living or life that is simply satisfyin ...
, especially
Catholic The Catholic Church (), also known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the List of Christian denominations by number of members, largest Christian church, with 1.27 to 1.41 billion baptized Catholics Catholic Church by country, worldwid ...
, it refers especially to the view in
casuistry Casuistry ( ) is a process of reasoning that seeks to resolve moral problems by extracting or extending abstract rules from a particular case, and reapplying those rules to new instances. This method occurs in applied ethics and jurisprudence. ...
that in difficult matters of
conscience A conscience is a Cognition, cognitive process that elicits emotion and rational associations based on an individual's ethics, moral philosophy or value system. Conscience is not an elicited emotion or thought produced by associations based on i ...
one may safely follow a doctrine that is
probable Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning Event (probability theory), events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probab ...
, for example is approved by a recognized
Doctor of the Church Doctor of the Church (Latin: ''doctor'' "teacher"), also referred to as Doctor of the Universal Church (Latin: ''Doctor Ecclesiae Universalis''), is a title given by the Catholic Church to saints recognized as having made a significant contribut ...
, even if the opposite opinion is more probable. This view was advanced by the Spanish theologian Bartolomé de Medina (1527–1581) and defended by many
Jesuits The Society of Jesus (; abbreviation: S.J. or SJ), also known as the Jesuit Order or the Jesuits ( ; ), is a religious order (Catholic), religious order of clerics regular of pontifical right for men in the Catholic Church headquartered in Rom ...
. It was heavily criticised by
Blaise Pascal Blaise Pascal (19June 162319August 1662) was a French mathematician, physicist, inventor, philosopher, and Catholic Church, Catholic writer. Pascal was a child prodigy who was educated by his father, a tax collector in Rouen. His earliest ...
in his ''Provincial Letters'' and by St. Alphonsus Ligourí in his ''Theologia Moralis'', as leading to moral laxity. Opposed to probabilism is probabiliorism (Latin ''probabilior'', "more likely"), which holds that when there is a preponderance of evidence on one side of a controversy one is obliged to follow that side, and tutiorism (Latin ''tutior'', "safer"), which holds that in case of doubt one must take the morally safer side. A more radical view, "minus probabilissimus", holds that an action is permissible if a single opinion allowing that action is available, even if the overwhelming weight of opinion proscribes it. The doctrine became particularly popular at the start of the 17th century, as it could be used to support almost any position. By mid-century, such thinking, termed Laxism, was recognized as scandalous.J. Franklin, ''The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal'' (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), , "The Scandal of Laxism" p. 83.


See also

* Compensationism *
Determinism Determinism is the Metaphysics, metaphysical view that all events within the universe (or multiverse) can occur only in one possible way. Deterministic theories throughout the history of philosophy have developed from diverse and sometimes ov ...
* Equiprobabilism *
Indeterminism Indeterminism is the idea that events (or certain events, or events of certain types) are not caused, or are not caused deterministically. It is the opposite of determinism and related to chance. It is highly relevant to the philosophical pr ...
*
Ontology Ontology is the philosophical study of existence, being. It is traditionally understood as the subdiscipline of metaphysics focused on the most general features of reality. As one of the most fundamental concepts, being encompasses all of realit ...
*
Probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...


References


Sources

* * {{1911, wstitle=Probabilism, volume=22, page=376 * J. Franklin, ''The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal'' (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001), ch. 4


External links


PhilosophyProfessor.com: Probabilism
Religious ethics Catholic moral theology Epistemological theories Academic skepticism