Predictive Microbiology is the area of food microbiology where controlling factors in foods and responses of pathogenic and spoilage microorganisms are quantified and modelled by mathematical equations It is based on the thesis that microorganisms' growth and environment are reproducible, and can be modeled.

Temperature Temperature is a physical quantity that expresses quantitatively the perceptions of hotness and coldness. Temperature is measured with a thermometer. Thermometers are calibrated in various temperature scales that historically have relied o ...

, pH and

water activity Water activity (''aw'') is the partial vapor pressure of water in a solution divided by the standard state partial vapor pressure of water. In the field of food science, the standard state is most often defined as pure water at the same tempera ...

impact bacterial behavior. These factors can be changed to control

food spoilage Food spoilage is the process where a food product becomes unsuitable to ingest by the consumer. The cause of such a process is due to many outside factors as a side-effect of the type of product it is, as well as how the product is packaged and s ...

. Models can be used to predict pathogen growth in foods. Models are developed in several steps including design, development, validation, and production of an interface to display results. Models can be classified attending to their objective in primary models (describing bacterial growth), secondary models (describing factors affecting bacterial growth) or tertiary models (computer software programs)

References

{{reflist, 30em Microbiology Food safety