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In stochastic analysis, a part of the mathematical theory of
probability Probability is a branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an e ...
, a predictable process is a
stochastic process In probability theory and related fields, a stochastic () or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a family of random variables in a probability space, where the index of the family often has the interpretation of time. Sto ...
whose value is knowable at a prior time. The predictable processes form the smallest class that is closed under taking limits of sequences and contains all adapted left-continuous processes.


Mathematical definition


Discrete-time process

Given a filtered probability space (\Omega,\mathcal,(\mathcal_n)_,\mathbb), then a stochastic process (X_n)_ is ''predictable'' if X_ is measurable with respect to the σ-algebra \mathcal_n for each ''n''.


Continuous-time process

Given a filtered probability space (\Omega,\mathcal,(\mathcal_t)_,\mathbb), then a continuous-time stochastic process (X_t)_ is ''predictable'' if X, considered as a mapping from \Omega \times \mathbb_ , is measurable with respect to the σ-algebra generated by all left-continuous adapted processes. This
σ-algebra In mathematical analysis and in probability theory, a σ-algebra ("sigma algebra") is part of the formalism for defining sets that can be measured. In calculus and analysis, for example, σ-algebras are used to define the concept of sets with a ...
is also called the predictable σ-algebra.


Examples

* Every deterministic process is a predictable process. * Every continuous-time adapted process that is left continuous is a predictable process.


See also

*
Adapted process In the study of stochastic processes, a stochastic process is adapted (also referred to as a non-anticipating or non-anticipative process) if information about the value of the process at a given time is available at that same time. An informal int ...
* Martingale


References

{{Stochastic processes Stochastic processes