Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election
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In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The date range for these opinion polls is from after the previous general election, held on 7 May 2015, to immediately before 8 June 2017. Under fixed-term legislation, the next general election was scheduled to be held on 7 May 2020. However, on 18 April 2017, Prime Minister Theresa May said that she would seek to bring forward the general election to Thursday 8 June 2017, which the House of Commons approved on 19 April. For an early election to be held, two-thirds of the total membership of the House had to support the resolution. The
Conservative Party The Conservative Party is a name used by many political parties around the world. These political parties are generally right-wing though their exact ideologies can range from center-right to far-right. Political parties called The Conservative P ...
went into the election defending its overall majority won in
2015 File:2015 Events Collage new.png, From top left, clockwise: Civil service in remembrance of November 2015 Paris attacks; Germanwings Flight 9525 was purposely crashed into the French Alps; the rubble of residences in Kathmandu following the Apri ...
with the Labour Party as the leading opposition party both in terms of polling numbers and seats. Most opinion polls cover only Great Britain, as Northern Ireland seats are contested by a different set of political parties. Most YouGov polls include the
Scottish National Party The Scottish National Party (SNP; sco, Scots National Pairty, gd, Pàrtaidh Nàiseanta na h-Alba ) is a Scottish nationalist and social democratic political party in Scotland. The SNP supports and campaigns for Scottish independence from ...
and Plaid Cymru as single options. The English and Welsh,
Scottish Scottish usually refers to something of, from, or related to Scotland, including: *Scottish Gaelic, a Celtic Goidelic language of the Indo-European language family native to Scotland *Scottish English *Scottish national identity, the Scottish ide ...
, and Northern Irish Green Parties are also treated as a single option by most polls.


Graphical summaries


Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. If there is a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results are generally rounded to the nearest percentage point (where a result is less than 0.5%, but more than zero, it is indicated by '*'). Percentages may not add to 100%, due to rounding. Data for all polls listed was obtained online, with the exception of Ipsos MORI and Survation, who obtained their data both online and by telephone. The poll results shown are the 'headline' figures, those published or broadcast in the
mainstream media In journalism, mainstream media (MSM) is a term and abbreviation used to refer collectively to the various large mass news media that influence many people and both reflect and shape prevailing currents of thought.Chomsky, Noam, ''"What makes mai ...
. Polling organisations obtain raw data from respondents and subsequently adjust or 'weight' this according to their projections of turnout and voting on election day based on, for example, age and party preference. Each polling organisation weights its raw data differently. The six parties with the largest numbers of votes in the 2015 general election are listed here. Other parties are included in the "Others" column.


2017


2016


2015


YouGov model

During the election campaign, YouGov created a Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model based on poll data. As set out by YouGov, the model "works by modelling every constituency and key voter types in Britain based on analysis of key demographics as well as past voting behaviour", with new interviews to registered voters conducted every day.


UK-wide seat projections

The UK's first-past-the-post electoral system means that national shares of the vote do not give an exact indicator of how the various parties will be represented in Parliament. Different commentators and pollsters provided a number of predictions, based on polls and other data, as to how the parties would be represented in Parliament: Lord Ashcroft Polls announced an estimate for the election result. He updated it at intervals on his website.
Electoral Calculus Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors but excludes local issues. Main features The site was developed by Martin Baxter, w ...
maintained a running projection of seats according to latest polls on its website based on universal changes from the previous general election results according to opinion poll averages. It also maintained a seat-by-seat projection for Scotland. Election Forecast also maintained a projection of seats based on current opinion poll averages on their website. Elections Etc. issued regular forecasts based on current opinion poll averages, betting markets, expert predictions and other sources on their website. YouGov issued daily seat estimates using their aggregated statistical election model. Britain Elects maintained a 'nowcast' of seats based on historical data as well as national and regional polling. ScenariPolitici.com maintained a projection of seats based on current opinion poll averages on their website.
Spreadex Spreadex is a British-based company that offers financial spread betting, sports spread betting, and sports fixed-odds betting. History Spreadex commenced trading in 1999 in Dunstable, Bedfordshire. It was founded by former City dealer Jonathan ...
maintained Party Seats spread bets throughout the election, with prices updated daily.


Sub-national polling


Scotland


Wales


Northern Ireland


Regional polling in England


North East England


North West England


Yorkshire and the Humber


East Midlands


West Midlands


East of England


London


South East


South West


Polls of individual constituencies


Battersea Battersea is a large district in south London, part of the London Borough of Wandsworth, England. It is centred southwest of Charing Cross and extends along the south bank of the River Thames. It includes the Battersea Park. History Batter ...


Brighton Pavilion

The Liberal Democrats did not field a candidate in Brighton Pavilion.


Edinburgh South

There was neither a Scottish Green nor any "other" candidates fielded Edinburgh South.


Kensington Kensington is a district in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea in the West End of London, West of Central London. The district's commercial heart is Kensington High Street, running on an east–west axis. The north-east is taken up b ...


Tatton

UKIP did not field a candidate in Tatton.


Preferred Prime Minister polling

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister – Theresa May (Conservative Party) or Jeremy Corbyn (Labour Party). The questions differ slightly from pollster to pollster: * Opinium, Lord Ashcroft and YouGov: "''Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?''" * Kantar Public: "''If you had to choose between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, who do you think would make the best leader for Britain?''" * Ipsos MORI: "''Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, the Conservative’s Theresa May, or Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn?''" * Survation: "''Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best Prime Minister?''" * ComRes: ''"For each of these pairs of statements, which one comes closest to your view? - Jeremy Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister than Theresa May/Theresa May would make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn"'' * ICM: ''"Putting aside which party you support, and only thinking about your impression of them as leaders, which one of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister for Britain?"''


May vs Corbyn


2017


2016


Cameron vs Corbyn


2016


2015


Multiple party leaders

Some polls ask voters to choose between multiple party leaders. The questions vary by pollster: *Lord Ashcroft: "''Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?''" *ComRes: "''Who of the following would make the best Prime Minister after the upcoming General Election?''" *YouGov: "''Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?''"


2017


2016


Hypothetical polling


See also

*
List of United Kingdom by-elections (2010–present) This is a list of parliamentary by-elections in the United Kingdom since 2010, with the names of the incumbent and victor and their respective parties. Where seats changed political party at the election, the result is highlighted: blue for a Co ...
*
Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the Brit ...
* Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–present)


Notes


References


External links


Britain Elects – summary of new polls

Elections in Wales: analysis of Wales-only polling.
{{Opinion polling for United Kingdom elections 2017 United Kingdom general election Opinion polling for United Kingdom general elections Opinion polling for United Kingdom votes in the 2010s