Opinion Polling For The New Zealand General Election, 2017 on:
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Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the
NZ Election Prediction
/ref>
2017 New Zealand general election
The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 20 ...
during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament
The 51st New Zealand Parliament was elected at the 2014 general election. This Parliament consists of 121 members (120 seats plus one overhang seat) and was in place from September 2014 until August 2017, followed by the 2017 New Zealand genera ...
(2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research
Roy Morgan, formerly known as Roy Morgan Research, is an independent Australian social and political market research and public opinion statistics company headquartered in Melbourne, Victoria. It operates nationally as Roy Morgan and internation ...
polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand
MediaWorks New Zealand is a New Zealand-based company specialising in radio, outdoor advertising and interactive media. It is jointly owned by U.S. company Oaktree Capital Management and out-of-home advertising company QMS. It operates nine n ...
(''3 News''/''Newshub
''Newshub'' (stylised as ''Newshub.'') is a New Zealand news service that airs on the television channels Three and Eden, as well as on digital platforms. It formerly operated across radio stations run by MediaWorks Radio until December 202 ...
'' Reid Research) and Television New Zealand
, type = Crown entity
, industry = Broadcast television
, num_locations = New Zealand
, location = Auckland, New Zealand
, area_served = Nationally (New Zealand) and some Pacific Island nations such as the Cook Islands, Fiji, and the Solom ...
('' One News'' Colmar Brunton
Colmar Brunton was a market research agency founded in New Zealand in 1981. It was later merged with Kantar in both Australia and New Zealand in 2020–21.
Services
There are two Colmar Brunton organizations, which operate in the Asia Pacific ...
) polling less frequently. The last ''The New Zealand Herald
''The New Zealand Herald'' is a daily newspaper published in Auckland, New Zealand, owned by New Zealand Media and Entertainment, and considered a newspaper of record for New Zealand. It has the largest newspaper circulation of all newspapers ...
'' (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media
Fairfax Media was a media company in Australia and New Zealand, with investments in newspaper, magazines, radio and digital properties. The company was founded by John Fairfax as John Fairfax and Sons, who purchased ''The Sydney Morning Herald' ...
(Fairfax Media Ipsos
Ipsos Group S.A. () (an acronym of ) is a multinational market research and consulting firm with headquarters in Paris, France. The company was founded in 1975 by Didier Truchot, Chairman of the company, and has been publicly traded on the Pa ...
) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error
The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in the results of a survey. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one should have that a poll result would reflect the result of a census of the ent ...
of just over 3%.
The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.
Party vote and key events
Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.Graphical summary
The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.
Individual polls
Internal polls
These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.Preferred Prime Minister
Graphical summary
Individual polls
Electorate polling
Party vote
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.Candidate vote
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.Party vote
Candidate vote
The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.Party vote
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.Candidate vote
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate. It was formed for the and held by Parekura Horomia of the Labour Party until his death in 2013. A by-election to replace him was held on 29 June 2013 and was won by Labour's Me ...
Party vote
Candidate vote
Te Tai Hauāuru
Te Tai Hauāuru electorate boundaries used since the
Te Tai Hauāuru is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate, returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives, that was first formed for the . The electorat ...
Party vote
Candidate vote
Te Tai Tonga
Te Tai Tonga is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorates, Māori electorate, returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand New Zealand House of Representatives, House of Representatives. It was established for the 1996 New Zealand ...
Party vote
Candidate vote
Hauraki-Waikato
Hauraki-Waikato is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate first established for the . It largely replaced the electorate. Nanaia Mahuta of the Labour Party, formerly the MP for Tainui, became MP for Hauraki-Waikato in the 2008 general ...
Party vote
Candidate vote
Tāmaki Makaurau
Tāmaki Makaurau is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives. It was first formed for the . The electorate covers the Auckland area and was first held by Labour ...
Party vote
Candidate vote
Te Tai Tokerau
Te Tai Tokerau () is a New Zealand parliamentary Māori electorate that was created out of the Northern Maori electorate ahead of the first Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) election in 1996. It was held first by Tau Henare representing New Zea ...
Party vote
Candidate vote
Forecasts
New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models./ref>
See also
*Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved ...
* Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election
* Politics of New Zealand
Notes
References
{{NZ general polling 2017 New Zealand general election