Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the

2016 Australian federal election The 2016 Australian federal election was a double dissolution election held on Saturday, 2 July 2016, to elect all 226 members of the 45th Parliament of Australia, 45th Parliament of Australia, after an extended eight-week official campaign p ...

on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the

Australian House of Representatives The House of Representatives is the lower house of the bicameralism, bicameral Parliament of Australia, the upper house being the Australian Senate, Senate. Its composition and powers are set out in Chapter I of the Constitution of Australia. ...

(

lower house A lower house is the lower chamber of a bicameral legislature, where the other chamber is the upper house. Although styled as "below" the upper house, in many legislatures worldwide, the lower house has come to wield more power or otherwise e ...

) and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the

two-party-preferred vote In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote (TPP or 2PP), is the result of an opinion poll or a projection of an election result where preferences are distributed to one of the two major parties, the Labor Party and the Liberal/Nati ...

; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election. Every federal election after

1961 Events January * January 1 – Monetary reform in the Soviet Union, 1961, Monetary reform in the Soviet Union. * January 3 ** United States President Dwight D. Eisenhower announces that the United States has severed diplomatic and cons ...

has been won by the grouping that also won the majority of federal seats in

New South Wales New South Wales (commonly abbreviated as NSW) is a States and territories of Australia, state on the Eastern states of Australia, east coast of :Australia. It borders Queensland to the north, Victoria (state), Victoria to the south, and South ...

. Unusually, in the upcoming election nearly half of all marginal government seats are in NSW; of these, nearly half are in

Western Sydney Western may refer to: Places *Western, Nebraska, a village in the US *Western, New York, a town in the US * Western Creek, Tasmania, a locality in Australia * Western Junction, Tasmania, a locality in Australia *Western world, countries that ...

and half are in rural and regional areas. No more than a few government seats in each other state are marginal. Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and

majority government A majority government is a government by one or more governing parties that hold an absolute majority of seats in a legislature. Such a government can consist of one party that holds a majority on its own, or be a coalition government of multi ...

would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater). Mackerras pendulum for the Australian 2016 federal election based o
2016 Federal Election Pendulum (Update)

Antony Green Antony John Green (born 2 March 1960) is an Australian Psephology, psephologist, Data science, data scientist, journalist, and commentator. He was the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's chief election analyst until his retirement from the r ...

ABC 13 March 2016 – O'Connor and Durack not included for Labor majority calculation but are included for Coalition loss of majority calculation.

Graphical aggregate of national voting intention polling

Federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state

The table below published by ''The Poll Bludger'' sets out the final release of federal

two-party-preferred In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote (TPP or 2PP), is the result of an opinion poll or a projection of an election result where preferences are distributed to one of the two major parties, the Labor Party and the Liberal/Natio ...

polling aggregates by state/territory (and swings since the previous election). Source
BludgerTrack 1 Jul 2016: Poll Bludger
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Methodology
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National polling

Voting intention

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction

Individual seat polling

Notes

References

{{2016 Australian federal election Opinion polling, national

2016 2016 was designated as: * International Year of Pulses by the sixty-eighth session of the United Nations General Assembly. * International Year of Global Understanding (IYGU) by the International Council for Science (ICSU), the Internationa ...

Australia Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country comprising mainland Australia, the mainland of the Australia (continent), Australian continent, the island of Tasmania and list of islands of Australia, numerous smaller isl ...