Olduvai theory

The Olduvai Theory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards, mankind would gradually return to levels of civilization comparable to those previously experienced, culminating in about a thousand years (3000 AD) in a hunting-based culture, such as existed on Earth three million years ago, when the Oldowan industry developed; hence the name of this theory,Until a few decades ago, special importance was given to the role of hunting in the subsistence of the first humans, and a hypothesis was put forward in which hominids were unspecialized hunters who took their prey to a base camp where they shared food. Revision of these ideas has been severe, especially since the 1968 international colloquium, ''Man the hunter''. Possibly Oldowan toolmakers were just foragers and scavengers. put forward by Richard C. Duncan based on his experience in handling energy sources and his love of archaeology.

Originally, the theory was proposed in 1989 under the name "pulse-transient theory".Duncan, R. C. (1989). ''Evolution, technology, and the natural environment: A unified theory of human history.'' Proceedings of the Annual Meeting, American Society of Engineering Educators: Science, Technology, & Society, 14B1-11 to 14B1-20. Subsequently, in 1996, its current name was adopted, inspired by the famous archaeological site, but the theory does not rely in any way on data collected at that site. Richard C. Duncan has published several versions since the appearance of his first paper with different parameters and predictions, which has been a source of criticism and controversy.

In 2007, Duncan defined five postulates based on the observation of data on:

# The world energy production per capita.
# Earth carrying capacity.
# The return to the use of coal as a primary source and the peak oil production.
# Migratory movements.
# The stages of energy utilization in the United States.

In 2009, he again publishes an update restating the postulate concerning world energy consumption per capita with respect to OECD countries, where previously he only compared with United States, downplaying the role of emerging economies.

Different people, such as Pedro A. Prieto, based on this and other theories of catastrophic collapse or ''die-off'', have formulated probable scenarios with various dates and social events. On the other hand, there is a group of people, such as Richard Heinberg or Jared Diamond, who also believe in social collapse, but still visualize the possibility of more benevolent scenarios where degrowth can occur with continued welfare.

This theory has been criticized for the way in which the problem of migratory movements is posed and for the ideological orientation of the publishing house that published its articles, ''The Social Contract Press'', which is an advocate of anti-immigration measures and birth control. There are major criticisms on each of the argumentative bases and different ideologies contrary to such approaches such as the Cornucopians, the advocates of the natural resource-based economy, environmentalist positions and the positions of various nations also fail to establish a consistent basis for such claims.

History

Richard C. Duncan is an author who first proposed Olduvai's theory in 1989 under the title "The pulse-transient theory of industrial civilization." Later this theory was supplemented in 1993 with the article "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium."

In June 1996, Duncan presented a paper titled "The Olduvai theory: falling towards a post-industrial stone-age era", adopting the term "Olduvai theory" in place of "pulse-transient theory" used in earlier work. Duncan published a more updated version of his theory under the name "The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge" at the 2000 Symposium Summit of the Geological Society of America on November 13, 2000.Duncan, Richard C. (2000). "''The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge''" In 2005, Duncan extended the data set within his theory to 2003 in the article "The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization."Duncan, R. C. (2005-2006
''The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization''
, The Social Contract.

Description

The Olduvai theory is a model that is mainly based on the peak oil theory and the per capita energy yield of oil. In the face of a foreseeable depletion, it establishes that the rate of energy consumption and world population growth cannot be the same as that of the 20th century.

Put differently, Olduvai's theory is defined by the rise and fall of the material quality of life (MQOL) which consists of the rate resulting from the increase or decrease of the production, use and consumption of energy sources (E) between the growth of the world population (P), (MQOL = E/P). From 1954 to 1979 that rate grew annually by about 2.8 %, from that date to 2000 it increased erratically by 0.2 % per year. From 2000 to 2007 it grew again at an exponential rate due to the development of emerging economies.

In works prior to 2000, Richard C. Duncan considered the peak of per capita energy consumption in 1979 as the peak of civilization. Currently, due to the growth since 2000 of the emerging economies, he considers 2010 as the likely date of peak energy per capita. But despite that adjustment, he continues to claim that in 2030 that rate of energy production per capita would be similar to that of 1930, considering that date as the end of the current civilization.

The theory argues that the first reliable signs of collapse are likely to consist of a series of widespread blackouts in the developed world. With the lack of electrical power and fossil fuels, there will be a transition from today's civilization to a situation close to that of the pre-industrial era. He goes on to argue that in events following that collapse the technological level is expected to eventually move from Dark Ages-like levels to those observed in the Stone Age within approximately three thousand years.

Duncan takes as a basis for the formulation of his theory data consisting of the following facts:

# Data obtained on world energy production per capita.
# The development of population from 1850 to 2005.
# The carrying capacity of the Earth in the absence of oil.
# Energy utilization stages and their level of growth in United States anticipate global ones, due to their dominance.
# Estimation of the year 2007 as the time of the peak oil.
# Migratory movements or attractiveness principle.

According to Duncan, the theory has five postulates:

# The exponential growth of world energy production ended in 1970.
# The intervals of growth, stagnation and final decline of energy production per capita in the United States anticipate the intervals of energy production per capita in the rest of the world. In such intervals there is a shift from oil to coal as the primary energy source.
# The final decline of industrial civilization will begin around 2008-2012.
# Partial and total blackouts will be reliable indicators of terminal or final decline.
# World population will decline in line with world energy production per capita.

Bases for the formulation of the theory

Carrying capacity limit and demographic explosion

He stipulates that the real capacity of the Earth without oil in the long run is between 500 and 2000 million people, which has been exceeded by a factor of three thanks to an artificial welfare bubble due to cheap oil. He argues that since the homeostatic balance of the Earth is around at most 2 billion people, as oil runs out at least 4 billion people will not be able to be regulated by the system, resulting in a large mortality rate.

Prior to 1800 the world population was doubling at a rate of between 500 and 1000 years, and by that date the world population was just under 1 billion. With the first industrial revolution and colonialism, the population in the Western world began to double at a rate just over 100 years, with the rest of the world following soon after, with 1550 million inhabitants by 1900. With the second industrial revolution the world began to double at a rate of less than 100 years, and with oil production and the digital revolution it doubled at a rate of about 50 years, from 2.4 billion people in 1950 to 6070 million people in 2000.

The theory not only predicts that the Earth's net load does not allow for the rate of such growth but that its population already exceeded its capacity after 1925. Thus one can see an apocalyptic scenario where the population would slow down in 2012 due to sudden global economic decline and peak in 2015 at around 6900 million (see critiques section), and would never in history grow to these levels again, there being as many deaths as births at any given time (1:1), roughly around the year 2017 or so. Thereafter the number of deaths would exceed the number of births (>1:1) and the world population would begin to contract dramatically with approximately 6.8 billion people remaining by the end of 2020, 6500 million by 2025, 5260 million by 2027, 4600 million by 2030 (reduction between 1800 and 2000 million people in 5 years), until the number of humans stabilizes at a figure between 2000 and 500 million inhabitants at a point between the years 2050 and 2100.

Duncan compares the forecast of his theory with that of Dennis Meadows in his book "The Limits to Growth". While Duncan expects the peak population in 2015 to be around 6.9 billion, Meadows expects the peak in 2027 to be around 7.47 billion. In addition, Duncan forecasts only 2000 million inhabitants by 2050, while Meadows estimates 6450 million inhabitants by 2050.

Other estimates similar to Olduvai's theory predict that the population will reach a zenith around the year 2025-2030 reaching a number between 7100 and 8000 million inhabitants and thereafter the population will decrease at the same rate it grew before the zenith describing a symmetric Gaussian bell.

Scholars, such as Paul Chefurka, point out that the Earth's carrying capacity will be defined both by factors such as the level of damage caused to ecosystems during the industrial period (pollution, alterations and even depletion of ecosystems, highly polluting and long-lasting waste and destruction of resources due to possible competition for them), the development of alternative technologies or oil substitutes and the existence of knowledge that would allow the survival of the remaining population in a sustainable manner (such as the rescue of traditional ways of life prior to the industrial revolution).

Principle of attractiveness

The formulation of this basis, supported on the work on the dynamics of complex social systems by Jay W. Forrester, proposes that the variables of per capita natural resource and material standard of living are subordinated to the per capita energy yield of oil. This principle holds that attractiveness is the difference in material standard of living between nations. Thus the US material standard of living in 2005 was 57.7 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per capita while the material standard of living of the rest of the world was 9.8 BOE per capita, there being a difference in consumption of 47.9 BOE equivalent per capita.The energy contained in a barrel of oil is equivalent to 1.46 x 10⁶ Kcal or equivalent to one year of energy consumption of a forestry worker in the tropics (4,000 Kcal/day according to Apud and collaborators, 1999). However, for Matthew Savinar one barrel of oil is equivalent to 25,000 man-hours and for Roscoe Bartlett 12 workers working for a year. Put another way, the huge difference in lifestyle and consumption becomes attractive to immigrants.

The new immigrant, upon arriving in that society, adopts the same consumerist lifestyle, further overloading that system. Duncan argues that the greater the immigration the greater the number of population where the differences in the material standard of living of the attracting country will diminish in an equalizing process until that country reaches the world's material standard of living.

This proposition has already been criticized in several parts of the world, because although Duncan insinuates that borders should be closed, he does not stop to consider that the main cause of resource depletion is the consumerist and predatory lifestyle of these attractive countries (see critiques section).

File:Energy per capita.png, alt=, Per capita energy consumption expressed in kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) per person in 2001 by country. In black the countries for which no data were collected, in light colors the countries with the lowest consumption, in bold colors the countries with the highest consumption; those tending to red are those that have shown an increase in consumption and those tending to green are those that have shown a decrease in consumption.

File:Net Migration Rate.svg, alt=, World migration in 2016, in blue the attractive countries, in orange the countries from which there is migration to the attractive countries. In green color the countries that showed negligible migration movements, in gray the countries for which no data were collected.

Return to the use of coal as a primary source

The theory proposes that due to the predominance of one nation the rest of the world will follow the same sequence in the implementation of a resource as a primary source. It thus comparatively analyzes a chronology of resource utilization as a primary source between United States and the rest of the world:

Utilization of

biomass as a primary source.

* In the United States until 1886.
* In the rest of the world until 1900.

Use of

coal as primary source.

* In the United States from 1886 to 1951.
* In the rest of the world from 1900 to 1963.

Use of

oil as primary source.

* In the United States from 1951 to 1986.
* In the rest of the world from 1963 to 2005.

Return to the use of

coal as primary source.

* In the United States since 1986.
* In the rest of the world from 2005.

According to Duncan, from 2000 to 2005 while world coal production increased by 4.8 % per year, oil increased by just 1.6 %.

The return to coal as a primary source, another taboo fact due to its high level of pollution, has been muted in the media as has the carrying capacity of the Earth for obvious political reasons, Duncan says.

Energy consumption of the population

Just as the shift from oil to coal as a primary source in the U.S. is marking global changes in advance, the indicator of the level of per capita energy consumption and production over time in the U.S. is also marking that of the rest of the world. Thus, Duncan distinguishes three stages in U.S. consumption that were subsequently reflected in world consumption:

Growth

* 1945-1970: U.S. growth stage, average growth of 1.4 % per capita energy production per year is observed during the period.
* 1954-1979: World growth stage, an average growth of 2.8 % per capita energy production per year is observed during the period.

Stagnation

* 1970-1998: U.S. stagnation stage, average decline of 0.6 % p.a. of energy production per capita during the period.
* 1979-2008: A period of global stagnation, an average growth of 0.2 % per capita energy production per year is observed during the period, after 2000 an upturn is observed due to the growth of emerging economies.

Final decline or decay

* 1998 onwards: US final decline stage, an average decline of 1.8 % per year of energy production per capita is observed during the period 1998-2005.
* 2008-2012 onwards: Probable stage of final global decline. The development of emerging economies and the huge coal utilization in China may slow down this process until 2012.

Theory updates

2009 update

After criticism received for the discrepancy shown by the United States per capita energy consumption curve, which tends to decrease, with respect to the world curve, which has tended to increase extraordinarily after 2000, Duncan published an update in 2009 of his theory where he compares a curve of the OECD members (30 countries) relative to the curve of the rest of the non-OECD world (165 countries) in which Brazil, India, and China are included.

In this new paper on the various peaks of per capita energy consumption in the world Duncan concludes the following:
* 1973: Peak per capita energy in United States.
* 2005: Peak energy per capita in OECD countries at around 4.75 tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) per capita.
* 2008: After having increased from 2000 to 2007 the per capita consumption of non-OECD countries by 28 %, the composite leading indicator of China, India and Brazil declined sharply in 2008, leading him to conclude that the average standard of living in non-OECD countries has already begun to fall. However, a February 2010 OECD report appears to contradict this claim (see critiques section).
* 2010: Most likely date of peak energy per capita globally.

In this new scenario it forecasts that the United States average standard of living or energy per capita would fall by 90 % between 2008 and 2030, OECD levels would fall by 86 % and the level of non-OECD countries would fall by 60 %. The average standard of living in the OECD would catch up with the average level of the rest of the world by 2030 standing at 3.53 barrels of oil equivalent per capita.

File:Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.svg, alt=, The thirty OECD countries in 2009, considered as the club of rich countries plus Turkey and Mexico. According to Duncan, the peak per capita energy consumption of these countries occurred in 2005.

File:Newly Industrialized Country.png, alt=, Map with the newly industrialized or emerging economy countries. According to Duncan, the composite leading indicator of China, India and Brazil fell sharply in 2008.} Accessed March 5, 2010

File:Olduvai per capita-en.png, alt=, Update 2000. Forecast of per capita energy consumption. In blue the growth stage, in green and yellow the stagnation stage, in red the final decline stage.

File:Olduvai per capita (2007)-en.png, alt=, Update 2007. Forecast of per capita energy consumption. In blue the growth stage, in green and yellow the stagnation stage, in red the terminal decline stage.

File:Olduvai per capita (2009)-en.png, alt=, Update 2009. Forecast of per capita energy consumption. In blue the growth stage, in green and yellow the stagnation stage, in red the final decline stage.

Societal scenarios according to the theory

Pedro A. Prieto, one of the Spanish-language specialists on the subject, has gone so far as to outline a probable scenario of societal collapse based on aspects of this theory.

Crisis of the Nation State

Wealthy nations would suffer increased insecurity, and what had been democratic societies would become totalitarian and ultraconservative societies where the population itself would demand outside resources and increased security. It is possible that before the great final die-off large developed nations would dispute scarce resources in a sort of World War III, without ruling out scenarios similar to the final solution or nuclear war.Others argue that such a war, if it were to happen, would be an intercapitalist war involving three blocks of civilizations. The first would be constituted by the Western civilization, the second by the Orthodox civilization as well as Sinic