History
In late March 2020, Gavin Williamson, the secretary of state for education in Boris Johnson's Conservative government, instructed the head of Ofqual, Sally Collier, to "ensure, as far as is possible, that qualification standards are maintained and the distribution of grades follows a similar profile to that in previous years". On 31 March, he issued a ministerial direction under the Children and Learning Act 2009. Then, in August, 82% of 'A level' grades were computed using an algorithm devised by Ofqual. More than 4.6 million GCSEs in England – about 97% of the total – were assigned solely by the algorithm. Teacher rankings were taken into consideration, but not the teacher-assessed grades submitted by schools and colleges. On 25 August, Collier, who oversaw the development of Williamson's algorithm calculation, resigned from the post of chief regulator of Ofqual following mounting pressure.Vocational qualifications
The algorithm was not applied to vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs), such as BTECs, which are assessed on coursework or as short modules are completed, and in some cases adapted assessments were held. Nevertheless, because of the high level of grade inflation resulting from Ofqual's decision not to apply the algorithm to A levels and GCSEs,The algorithm
Ofqual's ''Direct Centre Performance model'' is based on the record of each centre (school or college) in the subject being assessed. Details of the algorithm were not released until after the results of its first use in August 2020, and then only in part. : Schools were asked to make a ''fair and objective judgement'' of the grade they believed a student would have achieved, but in addition to ''rank the students within each grade''. This was because the statistical standardisation process required more granular information than the grade alone. Some examining boards issued guidance on the process of forming the judgement to be used within centres, where several teachers taught a subject. This was to be submitted 29 May 2020. For A-level students, their school had already included a ''predicted grade'' as part of the UCAS university application reference. This was submitted by 15 January (15 October 2019 for Oxbridge and medicine) and had been shared with the students. This UCAS ''predicted grade'' is not the same as the Ofqual ''predicted grade.'' The normal way to test a predictive algorithm is to run it against the previous year's data: this was not possible as the teacher rank order was not collected in previous years. Instead, tests used the rank order that had emerged from the 2019 final results.Effects of the algorithm
The A-level grades were announced in England, Wales and Northern Ireland on 13 August 2020. Nearly 36% were lower than teachers' assessments (the CAG) and 3% were down two grades.Side-effects of the algorithm
Students at small schools or taking minority subjects, such as are offered at small private schools, could see their grades being higher than their teacher predictions. Such students traditionally have a narrower range of marks, the weaker students having been invited to leave. Students at large state schools, sixth-form colleges and FE colleges who have open access policies and historically have educated BAME students or vulnerable students saw their results plummet, in order to fit the historic distribution curve. Students found the system unfair, and pressure was applied on Williamson to explain the results and to reverse his decision to use the algorithm that he had commissioned and Ofqual had implemented. On 12 August Williamson announced 'a triple lock' that let students appeal the result using an undefined valid mock result. But on 15 August, the advice was published with eight conditions set which differed from the minister's statement. Hours after the announcement, Ofqual suspended the system. On 17 August, Ofqual accepted that students should be awarded the CAG grade, instead of the grade predicted by the algorithm. UCAS said on 19 August that 15,000 pupils were rejected by their first-choice university on the algorithm-generated grades. After the Ofqual decision to use unmoderated teacher predictions, many affected students had grades to meet their offer, and reapplied. 90% of them said they aimed to study at top-tier universities. The effect was that top-tier universities appeared to have a capacity problem. The Royal Statistical Society said they had offered to help with the construction of the algorithm, but withdrew that offer when they saw the nature of theLegal opinion
Lord Falconer, a formerSee also
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