Offensive realism is a structural theory in
international relations
International relations (IR), sometimes referred to as international studies and international affairs, is the scientific study of interactions between sovereign states. In a broader sense, it concerns all activities between states—such a ...
that belongs to the
neorealist school of thought and was put forward by the political scholar
John Mearsheimer
John Joseph Mearsheimer (; born December 14, 1947) is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the Univers ...
in response to
defensive realism
Defensive neorealism is a structural theory in international relations that is derived from the school of neorealism. The theory finds its foundation in the political scientist Kenneth Waltz's ''Theory of International Politics'' in which Waltz ...
. Offensive realism holds that the
anarchic
Anarchy is a society without a government. It may also refer to a society or group of people that entirely rejects a set hierarchy. ''Anarchy'' was first used in English in 1539, meaning "an absence of government". Pierre-Joseph Proudhon adopted ...
nature of the international system is responsible for the promotion of aggressive
state
State may refer to:
Arts, entertainment, and media Literature
* ''State Magazine'', a monthly magazine published by the U.S. Department of State
* ''The State'' (newspaper), a daily newspaper in Columbia, South Carolina, United States
* ''Our S ...
behavior in
international politics. The theory fundamentally differs from defensive realism by depicting
great power
A great power is a sovereign state that is recognized as having the ability and expertise to exert its influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess military and economic strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power in ...
s as power-maximizing
revisionists privileging
buck-passing
Buck passing, or passing the buck, or sometimes (playing) the blame game, is the act of attributing to another person or group one's own responsibility. It is often used to refer to a strategy in power politics whereby a state tries to get anoth ...
and self-promotion over
balancing strategies in their consistent aim to
dominate the international system. The theory brings important alternative contributions for the study and understanding of international relations but remains the subject of criticism.
Theoretical origins
Offensive realism is a prominent and important theory of international relations belonging to the
realist school of thought, which includes various sub-trends characterised by the different perspectives of representative scholars such as
Robert Gilpin
Robert Gilpin (; July 2, 1930 – June 20, 2018) was an American political scientist. He was Professor of Politics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University where he held th ...
,
Randall Schweller, Eric J. Labs and
Fareed Zakaria
Fareed Rafiq Zakaria (; born 20 January 1964) is an Indian-American journalist, political commentator, and author. He is the host of CNN's '' Fareed Zakaria GPS'' and writes a weekly paid column for ''The Washington Post.'' He has been a columni ...
. Yet, to date, the most important variant of offensive neorealism is that of
John J. Mearsheimer
John Joseph Mearsheimer (; born December 14, 1947) is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the Univers ...
as fully developed in his book ''
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
''The Tragedy of Great Power Politics'' is a book by the American scholar John Mearsheimer on the subject of international relations theory published by W.W. Norton & Company in 2001. Mearsheimer explains and argues for his theory of " offensiv ...
''.
While Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism theory does reiterate and build on certain assumptions elaborated by
classical realists, it departs completely from this branch by using positivism as a philosophy of science and by adding a system-centric approach to the study of state behaviour in international politics based on the structure of the international system. Accordingly, his offensive neorealism pertains to the sub-branch of
neorealism alongside other structural theories such as
defensive realism
Defensive neorealism is a structural theory in international relations that is derived from the school of neorealism. The theory finds its foundation in the political scientist Kenneth Waltz's ''Theory of International Politics'' in which Waltz ...
.
Main tenets
The theory is grounded on five central assumptions similar to the ones that lie at the core of
Kenneth Waltz
Kenneth Neal Waltz (; June 8, 1924 – May 12, 2013) was an American political scientist who was a member of the faculty at both the University of California, Berkeley and Columbia University and one of the most prominent scholars in the field of ...
's defensive neorealism. These are:
# Great powers are the main actors in world politics and the international system is
anarchical
# All states possess some offensive
military
A military, also known collectively as armed forces, is a heavily armed, highly organized force primarily intended for warfare. It is typically authorized and maintained by a sovereign state, with its members identifiable by their distinct ...
capability
# States can never be certain of the intentions of other states
# States have survival as their primary goal
# States are
rational
Rationality is the quality of being guided by or based on reasons. In this regard, a person acts rationally if they have a good reason for what they do or a belief is rational if it is based on strong evidence. This quality can apply to an abi ...
actors, capable of coming up with sound strategies that maximize their prospects for survival
Like defensive neorealism, offensive realism posits an
anarchic
Anarchy is a society without a government. It may also refer to a society or group of people that entirely rejects a set hierarchy. ''Anarchy'' was first used in English in 1539, meaning "an absence of government". Pierre-Joseph Proudhon adopted ...
international system in which rational great powers uncertain of other states' intentions and capable of military offensive strive to survive. Although initially developed from similar propositions to those of defensive neorealism, Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism advances drastically different predictions regarding great power behaviour in international politics.
Mainly, it diverges from defensive neorealism in regards to the accumulation of
power
Power most often refers to:
* Power (physics), meaning "rate of doing work"
** Engine power, the power put out by an engine
** Electric power
* Power (social and political), the ability to influence people or events
** Abusive power
Power may a ...
a state needs to possess to ensure its security and the issuing of strategy states pursue to meet this satisfactory level of security. Ultimately, Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism draws a much more pessimistic picture of international politics characterised by dangerous inter-state security competition likely leading to conflict and war.
Status quo v. power-maximizing states
John Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism intends to fix the "status quo bias" of Kenneth Waltz's defensive neorealism. While both neorealist variants argue that states are primarily concerned with maximising their security, they disagree over the amount of power required in the process. To the contrary of defensive neorealism according to which states are status quo powers seeking only to preserve their respective positions in the international system by maintaining the prevailing
balance of power,
[Mearsheimer, Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 21.] offensive neorealism claims that states are in fact power-maximising revisionists harbouring aggressive intentions. Indeed, in offensive neorealism, the international system provides great powers with strong incentives to resort to offensive action in order to increase their security and assure their survival.
The international system characterised by
anarchy (the absence of a central authority capable of enforcing rules and punishing aggressors) and uncertainty as to state intentions and available offensive military capabilities leads states to constantly fear each other and resort to self-help mechanisms to provide for their survival. In order to alleviate this fear of aggression each holds of the other, states always seek to maximise their own relative power, defined in terms of material capabilities. As Mearsheimer puts it: "they look for opportunities to alter the balance of power by acquiring additional increments of power at the expense of potential rivals", since "the greater the military advantage one state has over other states, the more secure it is". States seek to increase their military strength to the detriment of other states within the system with
hegemony
Hegemony (, , ) is the political, economic, and military predominance of one State (polity), state over other states. In Ancient Greece (8th BC – AD 6th ), hegemony denoted the politico-military dominance of the ''hegemon'' city-state over oth ...
—being the only great power in the state system—as their ultimate goal.
John Mearsheimer
John Joseph Mearsheimer (; born December 14, 1947) is an American political scientist and international relations scholar, who belongs to the realist school of thought. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the Univers ...
summed up this view as follows: "great powers recognize that the best way to ensure their security is to achieve hegemony now, thus eliminating any possibility of a challenge by another great power. Only a misguided state would pass up an opportunity to be the hegemon in the system because it thought it already had sufficient power to survive." Accordingly, offensive neorealists such as Mearsheimer believe that a state's best strategy to increase its relative power to the point of achieving hegemony is to rely on offensive tactics. Provided that it is rational for them to act aggressively, great powers will likely pursue expansionist policies, which will bring them closer to hegemony.
[Mearsheimer, China's Unpeaceful Rise, 160.][Mearsheimer, Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 141.]
Since global hegemony is nearly impossible to attain due to the constraints of power projection across oceans and retaliation forces, the best end game status states can hope to reach is that of a
regional hegemon dominating its own geographical area.
This relentless quest for power inherently generates a state of "constant security competition, with the possibility of war always in the background". Only once regional hegemony is attained do great powers become status quo states.
Balancing v. buck-passing
The emphasis offensive neorealism puts on hegemony as states' end aim stands in sharp contrast to defensive neorealism's belief that state survival can be guaranteed at some point well short of hegemony. In a defensive neorealist mindset, security increments by power accumulation end up experiencing diminishing marginal returns where costs eventually outweigh benefits. Defensive neorealism posits that under anarchy there is a strong propensity for states to engage in
balancing—states shouldering direct responsibility to maintain the existing balance of power—against threatening power-seeking states, which may in turn succeed in "jeopardiz
ngthe very survival of the maximizing state". This argument also applies to state behavior towards the most powerful state in the international system, as defensive neorealists note that an excessive concentration of power is self-defeating, triggering balancing countermoves.
Mearsheimer challenges these claims by making the argument that it is rather difficult to estimate when states have reached a satisfactory amount of power short of hegemony and costly to rely extensively on balancing as an efficient power-checking method due to
collective action issues. According to him, when a great power finds itself in a defensive posture trying to prevent rivals from gaining power at its expense, it can choose to engage in balancing or intervene by favoring
buck-passing
Buck passing, or passing the buck, or sometimes (playing) the blame game, is the act of attributing to another person or group one's own responsibility. It is often used to refer to a strategy in power politics whereby a state tries to get anoth ...
—transferring the responsibility to act onto other states while remaining on the sidelines.
In order to determine the circumstances in which great powers behave according to one or the other, Mearsheimer builds on Waltz's defensive neorealism by including a second variable—geography—alongside the distribution of power. On one hand, the choice between balancing and buck-passing depends on whether the anarchic international system is of a bipolar, balanced, or unbalanced multipolar architecture. On another hand, state geographic location in terms of border sharing and stopping power of water also influences great powers' strategy preference. Combined, these two variables allow him to establish that great powers tend to favor—to the contrary of defensive neorealism predictions—buck-passing over balancing in all instances of multipolarity except for those that include a potential hegemon.
Responding to defensive neorealists' posture on state behaviour towards the most powerful state in the international system, Mearsheimer believes that threatened states will reluctantly engage in balancing against potential hegemons but that balancing coalitions are unlikely to form against a great power that has achieved regional hegemony. This lack of balancing is best explained by the regional hegemon's newly acquired status quo stance, which follows from the geographical constraints on its power projection capability. Instead of relying on offensive actions, a regional hegemon finds itself in a defensive position seeking to avert threats to its hegemonic status by preventing the rise of any peer competitors in other areas. As such it will behave as an
offshore balancer, passing the buck to local neighbours of the potential hegemon and engaging in balancing only as a last resort.
Contributions and criticism
Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism represents an important contribution to international relations theory yet also generated important criticism. While the inputs and critics below provide a good sample of the theory's contributions and the kind of arguments that have been addressed against it, the listing should in no case be considered as exhaustive.
Theoretical inputs
Firstly, scholars believe that Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism provides an alternative complement to Waltz's defensive neorealism. The theory adds to defensive neorealists' argument that the structure of the international system constrains state behavior. Setting to rectify the status quo bias pertaining to defensive neorealism by arguing that anarchy can also generate incentives for states to maximize their share of power, offensive neorealism solves anomalies that Waltz's theory fails to explain. Mainly, the theory is able to provide an explanation for the amount of conflict occurring among states in the international system. As Snyder states, Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism "enlarges the scope of neorealist theory by providing a theoretical rationale for the behavior of
revisionist state Revisionist state is a term from power transition theory within the wider field of international relations. It describes states whose objective is to change or put an end to the current system.
The term assumes a direct correlation between a stat ...
s".
Moreover, this complementarity could signify theoretical interrelation with the two theories working in alternation to explain state behavior, thereby allowing for a "more complete structural realist theory that can more accurately account for both defensive and offensive state behavior". Secondly, these scholars uphold the argument that Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism significantly contributes to foreign policy theory and alliance theory. More specifically, Mearsheimer's theory goes a step further than structural defensive realism by successfully theorising both international politics and foreign policy.
Contrary to Waltz's rejection of defensive neorealism as a theory capable of explaining foreign policy on top of international politics, offensive neorealism includes explanations of both international outcomes pertaining to the systemic level of analysis and individual state behavior. Additionally, the inclusion of new variables such as geography alongside the distribution of power enhances offensive neorealism's potential to make specific assumptions about states' pursuit of aggressive actions and resort to balancing and buck-passing.
Theoretical flaws
To begin with, scholars have pointed out several logical issues within Mearsheimer's offensive neorealism. Snyder rejects Mearsheimer's view of the
security dilemma
In international relations, the security dilemma (also referred to as the spiral model) is when the increase in one state's security (such as increasing its military strength) leads other states to fear for their own security (because they do not k ...
as "a synoptic statement of offensive realism". He argues that offensive neorealism's positing of all states as revisionists removes the central proposition—uncertainty about other states' intentions—on which the whole concept of security dilemma is grounded. Aggressive great powers' measures to maximize their security threaten others which leads to an actual justified security competition between states rather than an unnecessary one based on hypothetical threats.
Toft indicates flaws relating to offensive neorealism's
level of analysis
The term "level of analysis" is used in the social sciences to point to the location, size, or scale of a research target.
"Level of analysis" is distinct from the term " unit of observation" in that the former refers to a more or less integrated ...
. According to him, the inclusion of the non-structural geography variable to explain great power behavior shifts the theory's focal point of analysis from system-wide dynamics to regional ones. Considering the theory's regional security analyses, he further argues that offensive neorealism fails to clearly define what constitutes a region with "entities like Europe or North-East Asia (taken) for granted", leaving room for scholarly disapproval.
Christopher Layne further highlights problems associated with the geographic variable. He criticizes Mearsheimer's reasoning according to which the "stopping power of water" prevents a great power from achieving global hegemony as this constraint does not seem to apply to the case of an emerging rival's capacity to exercise influence beyond its own neighborhood. As Layne states, "apparently water stops the United States from imposing its powers on others in distant regions, but it does not stop them from threatening American primacy in the Western Hemisphere". Moreover, he finds offensive realism's classification of regional hegemons as status quo powers difficult to reconcile with the theory's emphasis on great powers as relentless power-maximizers. In this sense, Layne questions the ability of the water constraint to transform a power-maximizing state into a status quo power and contradicts Mearsheimer by arguing that a regional hegemon remains subjected to the quest for security, thereby striving to attain global hegemony.
A second group of criticism addresses the issue of offensive neorealism's restrictive focuses. Scholars have criticized Mearsheimer's theory for failing to take into account domestic politics. No attention is paid to a rising power's internal political functioning, its economy or society, which play a role in a state's decision-making process, in turn influencing its behavior in international politics.
[Kagan, Why John J. Mearsheimer is Right.] Moreover, Snyder argues that no consideration is given to transnational threats such as terrorism, and that Mearsheimer's emphasis on security makes him ignore states' non-security interests such as ideology, national unification and human rights as an essential aspect of international politics alongside power competition.
Additionally, Toft points out that Mearsheimer's concentration on military capabilities and issuing
state capacity for territorial conquest "implies a risk that his analyses miss a host of other ways of gaining and exercising influence". Similarly, political scientists whose primary focus is bargaining models of international conflict note that offensive neorealism ignores the fact that war is costly.
Since those costs in turn make war inefficient, states (even those who do not have hegemony) have incentive to construct bargained settlements. For instance, in a bipolar world with a 70%-to-30% power breakdown, states would prefer an analogously proportioned breakdown in resources rather than having some of those resources destroyed over the course of fighting. Due to this inefficiency—
war's inefficiency puzzle
In international relations theory, the bargaining model of war is a method of representing the potential gains and losses and ultimate outcome of war between two actors as a bargaining interaction. A central puzzle that motivates research in this ...
—the constant fighting Mearsheimer proposes would actually make states less secure because the repeated costs of fighting eventually deplete all of that state's power.
Most importantly, scholars have questioned the theory's empirical validity and prediction ability, which in turn can negatively affect the validity of offensive neorealism's prescriptions for state behavior in international politics. In addition to mentioning the theory's failure to account for Japan's 20th century territorial acquisitions, NATO's continuation or Germany's non-achievement of
regional hegemony
In international relations, regional hegemony is the hegemony (political, economic, or military predominance, control or influence) of one independently powerful state, known as the regional hegemon over other neighboring countries. The relationsh ...
in the post-Cold war era,
they have also expressed serious doubts regarding offensive neorealism views on China's rising power and U.S. regional hegemony. According to them, there is no reason to believe that China as a rational power wanting to ensure its survival will seek hegemony rather than rely on cooperative mechanisms.
They similarly contradict Mearsheimer's arguments regarding the United States. Firstly, weak opposition or balancing inefficiencies rather than geographical constraints are taken as explanations for the uniqueness of the United States' regional hegemonic position.
Toft and Layne go a step further by asserting that Mearsheimer misjudges the United States as a regional hegemon engaged in offshore balancing. Instead of being a regional hegemon with the strategic aim of dominating the Western hemisphere while preventing the rise of peer competitors in Europe and Northeast Asia, these scholars believe that empirical data points to the fact that the United States has sought and achieved global hegemony, which in turn biases Mearsheimer's predictions regarding future U.S. strategic behavior, mainly in terms of its military involvement overseas.
[Toft, John J. Mearsheimer, 397–399.]
See also
*
Lesser of two evils principle
The lesser of two evils principle, also referred to as the lesser evil principle and lesser-evilism, is the principle that when faced with selecting from two immoral options, the least immoral one should be chosen. The principle is sometimes rec ...
*
Cult of the offensive
The cult of the offensive refers to a strategic military dilemma in which leaders believe that offensive advantages are so great that a defending force would have no hope of repelling the attack and therefore choose to attack. It is most often us ...
Notes
References
*
*Hendrickson, David C. "The Lion and the Lamb: Realism and Liberalism Reconsidered." World Policy Journal 20:1 (2003): 93–102.
*
*Kirshner, Jonathan. "The Tragedy of Offensive Realism: Classical Realism and the Rise of China." European Journal of International Relations 18:1 (2012): 53–75.
*Labs, Eric. "Beyond Victory: Offensive Realism and the Expansion of War Aims." Security Studies 6:4 (1997): 1–49.
* Lake, David A. "Two Cheers for Bargaining Theory: Assessing Rationalist Explanations of the Iraq War." International Security 35:3 (2010/11): 7–52.
*Layne, Christopher
"The Poster Child for Offensive Realism: America as a Global Hegemon." Security Studies 12:2 (2002/2003): 120–163.*Lee, Gerald Geunwook. "To be Long or Not to Be Long—That is the Question: The Contradiction of Time-Horizon in Offensive Realism." Security Studies 12:2 (2002/2003): 196–217.
*Levy, Jack S. and William R. Thompson. "Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally Against the Leading Global Power?" International Security 35:1 (2010): 7–43.
*Lieber, Keir A. and Gerard Alexander. "Waiting for Balancing Why the World Is Not Pushing Back." International Security 30:1 (2005): 109–139.
*Lim, Y.-H. China's Naval Power, Surrey, New York, Ashgate, 2014, 234 p. ().
*Mearsheimer, John J. "The False Promise of International Institutions." International Security 19:3 (1994–1995): 5–49.
*Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York, NY: W.W. Norton, 2001.
*Mearsheimer, John J. "China's Unpeaceful Rise." Current History 105:690 (2006): 160–162.
*Rynning, Sten and Jens Ringsmose. "Why Are Revisionist States Revisionist? Reviving Classical Realism as an Approach to Understanding International Change." International Politics 45 (2008): 19–39.
*Shiping Tang. "From Offensive to Defensive Realism: A Social Evolutionary Interpretation of China's Security Strategy." In China's Ascent: Power, Security, and the Future of International Politics, edited by Robert Ross and Zhu Feng, 141–162. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2008.
*Snyder, Glenn H. "Mearsheimer's World—Offensive Realism and the Struggle for Security: A Review Essay." International Security 27:1 (2002): 149–173.
*
*
*Waltz, Kenneth N. Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979).
*Waltz, Kenneth N. "Realist Thought and Neorealist Theory." Journal of International Affairs 44:1 (1990): 21–37.
*Waltz, Kenneth N. "International Politics Is Not Foreign Policy." Security Studies 6:1 (1996): 54–57.
*Wang, Yuan-Kang. "Offensive Realism and the Rise of China." Issues & Studies 40:1 (2004): 173–201.
Further reading
*Robert Giplin, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).
*Randall L. Schweller, "Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In", International Security 19 :1 (1994): 72–107.
*Fareed Zarkaria, From Wealth to Power: the Unusual Origins of America's World Role (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998).
{{John Mearsheimer
Political realism
International relations theory
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