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A no-deal Brexit (also called clean break BrexitBBC. (2019)
''Brexit: Jargon-busting guide to the key terms'' (BBC)
Retrieved 29 March 2019.
) was the potential withdrawal of the UK from the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been de ...
(EU) without a withdrawal agreement. Under Article 50 of the
Maastricht Treaty The Treaty on European Union, commonly known as the Maastricht Treaty, is the foundation treaty of the European Union (EU). Concluded in 1992 between the then-twelve Member state of the European Union, member states of the European Communities, ...
, the Treaties of the European Union would have ceased to apply once a withdrawal agreement was ratified or if the two years had passed since a member state had indicated its will to leave the European Union. The two-year period could have been extended by unanimous consent from all member states, including the member state that was wishing to leave the European Union. Without such an agreement in place at the end of the period specified in Article 50,
EU law European Union law is a system of rules operating within the member states of the European Union (EU). Since the founding of the European Coal and Steel Community following World War II, the EU has developed the aim to "promote peace, its val ...
and other agreements would have ceased to apply to the established interactions between the UK and the rest of the EU. Additionally, British interactions with non-EU countries that had been governed by EU agreements with those countries may have needed to be renegotiated, as well. Short-term (90-day) cross-border travel for tourism was expected to continue as before, albeit with some inconvenience to aviation schedules. While trading of goods (though not services) could have continued to operate under
World Trade Organization The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an intergovernmental organization that regulates and facilitates international trade. With effective cooperation in the United Nations System, governments use the organization to establish, revise, and ...
(WTO) most favoured nation rules, some significant disruption to established trade flows was anticipated and the UK and the EU had prepared agreements and (short-term) understandings for the more serious risks anticipated to arise.
Operation Yellowhammer Operation Yellowhammer was the codename used by the British HM Treasury for cross-government civil contingency planning for the possibility of Brexit without a withdrawal agreement a no-deal Brexit. Had the UK and EU failed to conclude such an ...
was the codename used by
HM Treasury His Majesty's Treasury (HM Treasury), occasionally referred to as the Exchequer, or more informally the Treasury, is a department of His Majesty's Government responsible for developing and executing the government's public finance policy and ...
for cross-government civil contingency planning for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. The Parliament of the UK finally ratified the renegotiated withdrawal agreement in January 2020 and Brexit proceeded at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (which is 00.00 CET on 1 February). A Brexit transition period began at that point, to allow the sides to negotiate a trade agreement and to give time for the sides to prepare for the consequences of that agreement. On 24 December 2020, the President of the European Commission (on behalf of the EU) and the Prime Minister of the UK agreed in principle to a draft EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement. The Parliament of the United Kingdom ratified this Agreement on 30 December 2020 and the European Parliament ratified it in late April 2021. The EU and UK agreed to apply the draft agreement with effect from 1 January 2021.


Events of 2019

In May 2019, the
Speaker of the House of Commons Speaker of the House of Commons is a political leadership position found in countries that have a House of Commons, where the membership of the body elects a speaker to lead its proceedings. Systems that have such a position include: * Speaker of ...
advised that while a no-deal exit on 31 October 2019 was the current default position in law, it was not credible that Parliament could be deprived of the right to intervene should it wish to do so. In July 2019
Boris Johnson Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (; born 19 June 1964) is a British politician, writer and journalist who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as F ...
became
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom The prime minister of the United Kingdom is the head of government of the United Kingdom. The prime minister advises the sovereign on the exercise of much of the royal prerogative, chairs the Cabinet and selects its ministers. As modern ...
and Leader of the Conservative Party. The
Department for Exiting the European Union The Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU; also known as the Department for Brexit or Brexit Department) was a department of the Government of the United Kingdom responsible for overseeing negotiations relating to Brexit, and establi ...
, which had previously been responsible for Brexit negotiations, was refocused to concentrate on no-deal planning, with an additional £1 billion in funding for preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Johnson appointed Michael Gove to the Cabinet with the responsibility for co-ordination of planning across Government Departments for a no-deal Brexit, declaring that Gove would "turbo-charge" the UK's preparations for a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. In August 2019, ''The Guardian'' reported that British diplomats would pull out from the EU's decision making meetings "within days", under plans being drawn up by Downing Street. That newspaper also said in the same month that any attempt to bypass MPs could create a
constitutional crisis In political science, a constitutional crisis is a problem or conflict in the function of a government that the political constitution or other fundamental governing law is perceived to be unable to resolve. There are several variations to this ...
. On 21 August 2019,
Angela Merkel Angela Dorothea Merkel (; ; born 17 July 1954) is a German former politician and scientist who served as Chancellor of Germany from 2005 to 2021. A member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), she previously served as Leader of the Opp ...
offered and Boris Johnson accepted a suggestion that the British Government should come up with a viable alternative to the backstop, and on the same day the President of France Emmanuel Macron indicated that no deal was the most likely Brexit outcome due to the inability of the UK to accept the withdrawal agreement. At an interview with the
BBC #REDIRECT BBC #REDIRECT BBC Here i going to introduce about the best teacher of my life b BALAJI sir. He is the precious gift that I got befor 2yrs . How has helped and thought all the concept and made my success in the 10th board exam. ...
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at the 45th G7 summit in late August 2019 Johnson suggested that the chances of achieving a Brexit deal were now "touch and go". He had previously stated that the odds of a no-deal exit were "a million to one". On 28 August 2019, the Johnson ministry reopened negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, but set as a pre-condition that the Irish backstop must be scrapped before doing so, a condition to which the EU had declared it would not agree. On 30 October 2019, the day named as "exit day" in British legislation was changed to 31 January 2020 at 11.00 pm.


Projected consequences of a no-deal Brexit


Budget contributions and divorce bill

The UK's recurrent contributions to the EU budget would have ceased. (A
House of Commons The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. T ...
briefing paper issued in June 2016 stated that the average net contribution for the years 2013 to 2017 was £7.9 billion per annum.) The withdrawal agreement negotiated by Prime Minister
Theresa May Theresa Mary May, Lady May (; née Brasier; born 1 October 1956) is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2016 to 2019. She previously served in David Cameron's cabi ...
included an understanding that the UK would need to pay a "divorce" bill of £39 billion for previous and long-term commitments. On 25 August 2019 it was reported that a British government legal team had advised that the amount due should a no-deal Brexit eventuate would be £9 billion and possibly as low as £7 billion.


Economy

Analysis by Her Majesty's Treasury in 2016 predicted that a no-deal Brexit, whereby the UK left the EU and traded with the EU only on WTO terms without any new deals being negotiated, would have resulted in a 7.5% decrease in GDP after 15 years for the UK (relative to where it would otherwise have been were the UK to have remained a member of the EU). In April 2019 the
International Monetary Fund The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution, headquartered in Washington, D.C., consisting of 190 countries. Its stated mission is "working to foster glo ...
published analysis showing that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit occurring during 2019, the UK's GDP would be 3.5% smaller by 2021 than it would have been had a withdrawal agreement been made during that year (2019). The IMF also predicted a 0.5% reduction in GDP relative to where it otherwise would have been for the rest of the EU by 2021 as a result of a no-deal Brexit. In June 2019 the
Office of Budget Responsibility The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally c ...
published analysis predicting that the economy would shrink by 2% of GDP by 2021 if a no-deal Brexit occurred during 2019, but where the UK's exit was not "disruptive or disorderly". Economists at
think tank A think tank, or policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, technology, and culture. Most think tanks are non-governmenta ...
The
Policy Exchange Policy Exchange is a British conservative think tank based in London. In 2007 it was described in ''The Daily Telegraph'' as "the largest, but also the most influential think tank on the right". ''The Washington Post'' said Policy Exchange's re ...
criticised the Treasury, IMF and OECD forecasts for their reliance on a
gravity model Gravity models are used in various social sciences to predict and describe certain behaviors that mimic gravitational interaction as described in Isaac Newton's laws of gravity. Generally, the social science models contain some elements of mass ...
with what they said were incorrect assumptions. Specifically, these forecasts relied on the comparison between firstly the average gain in trade between EU countries and secondly the average gain in trade between EU countries and the rest of the world. For example, the Treasury's forecast showed that trade in goods had increased 115% more between EU countries compared to trade between the EU and the rest of the world over the timeline of the EU. The authors pointed to various problems with this, including that 115% was the average across all EU countries and UK-specific analysis leads to significantly lower number in the 20% to 30% range, that currency fluctuations should have reduced some of the impact of this, and that British exports to the EU as a percentage of its total exports had been falling rapidly since 1999. In 2016 Patrick Minford predicted that a 'Britain Alone' scenario in which Britain left the EU, traded with the EU only on WTO terms, and unilaterally removed all tariffs, would result in a gain of 4% of GDP relative to where it would otherwise have been had the UK remained in the EU. Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen of the
Centre for Economic Performance The Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the London School of Economics dedicated to the study of economic growth and effective ways to create a fair, inclusive and sustainable society. Currently led by ...
criticised this analysis as being based on outdated information and analytical models, and unjustified assumptions. A report prepared by the Central Bank of Ireland in August 2019 indicated that the City of London would be "largely unaffected" by a hard Brexit, even if it were to have an "adverse" impact on the rest of the country. The report said that the City's financial services industry was sufficiently strong to withstand the impact of a no-deal Brexit and would remain "rich".


Freedom of movement

Under the EU Single Market, freedom of movement allowed EU citizens to travel, live and work in any other member state. This freedom would have been curtailed by a no-deal Brexit, but in early September 2019 it became clear that
Home Secretary The secretary of state for the Home Department, otherwise known as the home secretary, is a senior minister of the Crown in the Government of the United Kingdom. The home secretary leads the Home Office, and is responsible for all national s ...
Priti Patel would announce a liberalisation of rules such that in the event of a no-deal Brexit EU citizens arriving and joining the Settlement Register by the end of 2020 would be able to remain in the UK until 31 December 2023.


Ireland

The economies of both parts of Ireland were expected to be seriously affected by a no-deal Brexit.


Motor industry

On 28 July 2019,
Groupe PSA The PSA Group (), legally known as Peugeot S.A. (Peugeot Société Anonyme, trading as Groupe PSA; formerly known as PSA Peugeot Citroën from 1991 to 2016) was a French multinational automotive manufacturing company which produced automobiles ...
(owners of
Vauxhall Motors Vauxhall Motors LimitedCompany No. 00135767. Incorporated 12 May 1914, name changed from Vauxhall Motors Limited to General Motors UK Limited on 16 April 2008, reverted to Vauxhall Motors Limited on 18 September 2017. () is a British car compa ...
) told the ''
Financial Times The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Ni ...
'' that a no-deal Brexit could, if Brexit makes it unprofitable, result in the closure of its
Ellesmere Port Ellesmere Port ( ) is a port town in the Cheshire West and Chester borough in Cheshire, England. Ellesmere Port is on the south eastern edge of the Wirral Peninsula, north of Chester, south of Birkenhead, southwest of Runcorn and south of ...
plant, with serious consequential impact on local suppliers.


Sheep farming

On 30 July 2019, Helen Roberts of the National Sheep Association in Wales told
The Guardian ''The Guardian'' is a British daily newspaper. It was founded in 1821 as ''The Manchester Guardian'', and changed its name in 1959. Along with its sister papers ''The Observer'' and ''The Guardian Weekly'', ''The Guardian'' is part of the Gu ...
that it would be "absolutely catastrophic" to leave with no-deal and could lead to civil unrest among sheep farmers. Minette Batters, the president of the National Farmers Union, said there would be no market for 40% of the UK's lamb meat in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The Guardian also reported research commissioned by the
Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) is a levy board funded by farmers and growers and some other parts of the supply chain. It aims to enhance farm business efficiency and competitiveness in the areas of: pig, beef and lam ...
and Quality Meat Scotland that found that combined beef and sheep meat exports to the EU could have declined by 92.5%, with the lamb export trade "almost completely wiped out". Reports emerged of no deal plans by the UK government to purchase beef, lamb and some crops with £500 million having been budgeted for this.


World-wide trade winners and losers

The UK would have been able to make new international free trade deals straight away following a no-deal Brexit. Delivering a research study on the impact on worldwide exports to the UK, the director of international trade and commodities at
UNCTAD The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) is an intergovernmental organization within the United Nations Secretariat that promotes the interests of developing countries in world trade. It was established in 1964 by the ...
considered that "Brexit is not only a regional affair. Once the UK has left he EU it will alter the ability of non-EU countries to export to the UK market". According to UNCTAD a no-deal Brexit could have impacted third world countries, including in Africa. However, a no-deal Brexit could have provided gains to China. A no-deal Brexit could on one hand reduce EU exports to the UK by $34 billion and from Turkey by $2 billion, and on the other could increase Chinese exports by $10 billion and US exports by $5 billion. A no-deal Brexit would have had immediate repercussions for many developing countries’ exports, with the UNCTAD research raising the possibility of significant disruption and economic harm for developing countries whose exports are highly reliant on the UK market and/or were then beneficiaries of EU preferences.


United Kingdom preparedness and contingencies


Operation Yellowhammer

In the run up to the anticipated Spring 2019 Brexit date, the
Department for Exiting the European Union The Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU; also known as the Department for Brexit or Brexit Department) was a department of the Government of the United Kingdom responsible for overseeing negotiations relating to Brexit, and establi ...
(DExEU) and the
Civil Contingencies Secretariat The Civil Contingencies Secretariat (CCS), created in July 2001, is the executive department of the British Cabinet Office responsible for emergency planning in the UK. The role of the secretariat is to ensure the United Kingdom's resilience ...
developed preparedness and contingency plans for the possibility of a "no-deal" Brexit, codenamed ''Operation Yellowhammer'' – the emergency co-ordination plan. In August 2019, it was reported that the Cabinet Office was "not able to confirm" that Operation Yellowhammer is to remain available for an Autumn Brexit. On 18 August 2019, a leak revealed that the policy continues to exist and is being updated. After Boris Johnson became British prime minister in July 2019, there were changes for Brexit planning. Under Michael Gove, significant additional emphasis and funding was given to no-deal preparations.


Transport systems

the UK government had issued 16 publications indicating advice on road, rail, air and marine transport, most of which were applicable to the no-deal scenario.


Surface

Transport links were likely to be affected by additional procedures required at border crossings, leading to possible bottlenecks and congestion. Some measures were taken to mitigate the effect of possible problems, including additional ferry capacity. Additionally an enhanced plan, Operation Brock, was prepared to cope with additional traffic delays on the M20 motorway to the Channel Tunnel and
Channel ports The Channel Ports are seaports in southern England and the facing continent, which allow for short crossings of the English Channel. There is no formal definition, but there is a general understanding of the term. Some ferry companies divide thei ...
with Operation Fennel used to manage overall traffic congestion in Kent. It was said in July 2019 that any issues with train operators and driver certifications (to operate/continue to operate cross-border train services) needed to be resolved. At the end of July 2019, in a statement headlined "Brexit and the UK haulage industry – no deal, no jobs, no food", the (British)
Road Haulage Association The Road Haulage Association Ltd (RHA) is a private company limited by guarantee dedicated to the interests of the road haulage industry. It is the only trade association in the United Kingdom dedicated solely to road haulage. As a trade associ ...
said that "A no-deal Brexit will create massive problems for international hauliers – whether UK or mainland Europe based".


Aviation

Aviation would have been particularly affected if the European Common Aviation Area and
EU–US Open Skies Agreement The EU–US Open Skies Agreement is an open skies air transport agreement between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US). The agreement allows any airline of the European Union and any airline of the United States to fly between ...
no longer applied to the UK after a "no-deal" Brexit, since World Trade Organization rules did not cover that sector, implying that the following day a British plane could not have landed at an EU airport. The British government said in September 2018 that in case of no deal on aviation, the UK would allow EU airlines to use British airports anyway, and expect EU countries to reciprocate. A number of other aviation issues existed, including pan-European
air traffic control Air traffic control (ATC) is a service provided by ground-based air traffic controllers who direct aircraft on the ground and through a given section of controlled airspace, and can provide advisory services to aircraft in non-controlled airs ...
, service agreements with the EU and other countries, security regimes, and the UK's relationship with the
European Aviation Safety Agency The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is an agency of the European Union (EU) with responsibility for civil aviation safety. It carries out certification, regulation and standardisation and also performs investigation and monito ...
. EU—UK flights should not be affected for a time following a no-deal exit, subject to the EU and the UK respecting reciprocal rights in this area. Post-Brexit open skies agreements were reached with the US and Canada in November and December 2018 respectively and these would also have applied in a "no-deal" situation.


Borders

The British National Audit Office (NAO) produced the report ''The UK border: preparedness for EU exit update'' in October 2018 and an update in February 2019. These indicated 11 out of 12 critical systems for borders would be ''at risk'' were a no-deal exit to have occurred on 29 March 2019.


Movements of people

EU citizens entering the UK for tourism and (some) business and tourism (and
vice versa References

Additional references * * {{Latin phrases Lists of Latin phrases, V ca:Locució llatina#V da:Latinske ord og vendinger#V fr:Liste de locutions latines#V id:Daftar frasa Latin#V it:Locuzioni latine#V nl:Lijst van Latijns ...
), would not have needed visas for visits up to 90 days; however significant business travel would have required a work permit for each country visited. EU and British citizens with less than six months to a year on their passports may have been advised to renew them. Passports would not have been required between Ireland and the UK as they are in the
common travel area The Common Travel Area (CTA; ga, Comhlimistéar Taistil, ) is an open borders area comprising the United Kingdom, Ireland, Isle of Man, and the Channel Islands. The British Overseas Territories are not included. Based on agreements that are no ...
. Citizens from the UK would have been unable to use the EU channels in EU airports: the EU channels at British airports would have been repurposed. An International Driving Licence and
Green Card A green card, known officially as a permanent resident card, is an identity document which shows that a person has permanent residency in the United States. ("The term 'lawfully admitted for permanent residence' means the status of having been ...
may have been required for British citizens to drive in the EU.


Movement of goods

In February 2019, it was estimated that the number of customs declarations to be handled for goods leaving the UK would have risen from the current 55 million per year to 240 million.


Healthcare

The
Department of Health and Social Care The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) is a department of His Majesty's Government responsible for government policy on health and adult social care matters in England, along with a few elements of the same matters which are not otherw ...
(DHSC) analysed supply chain, organised stockpiles and additional refrigeration warehouse space. Medicine with limited shelf life cannot be stockpiled; arrangements were in place to prioritise medicines as key goods and a chartered plane would be available for provisioning if necessary. Each clinic and hospital had to answer 60 questions each day as part of a ''sitrep'' (Situation Report) to confirm they would have been able to continue to manage. On 26 March 2019 the Minister for the DHSC indicated it was prepared for a no-deal exit.


Energy

In the event of a no-deal exit, EU energy law would have no longer applied to the UK. Continuity of supply would have been prioritised. For 12 months until new trading arrangements, a temporary scheme would have been implemented to import electricity with no tariff. The All-Ireland single Electricity Market would no longer have applied, although alternative trading arrangements had been outlined and were being pursued, the Government stated in March 2019.


Fisheries

As a member of the EU, the UK was part of the common fisheries policy which, among other things, allows fishermen from other EU countries to access British waters (and vice versa). In the event of no deal the British government had stated that, as the UK would no longer be bound by the common fisheries policy, it could deny access to EU Member States fishing vessels, and in September 2018 DEFRA reported that issues were expected in enforcing the British fishing area to prevent fishing by non-British vessels. The EU had requested that, in the event of no-deal, short term access be provided to EU vessels, and
Steve Barclay Stephen Paul Barclay (born 3 May 1972) is a British politician who has served as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care since October 2022, having previously held the position from July to September 2022 under Boris Johnson. He served a ...
(Brexit Secretary) informed the Exiting the European Union Select Committee that the UK had agreed to stay in the common fisheries policy until at least 31 December 2019.


Food and water

In September 2018, DEFRA produced a report on ''Progress implementing EU Exit''. Progress was being made getting other countries to accept British versions of export health certificates, especially in the 15% of non-EU countries accounting for 90% of the UK's non-EU exports. There were also concerns about insufficient veterinary staff to process export health certificates. In August 2019 it was revealed that local government planning for a No-deal Brexit encompassed the possibility of needing to change legal requirements underpinning the provision of
school meals A school meal or school lunch (also known as hot lunch, a school dinner, or school breakfast) is a meal provided to students and sometimes teachers at a school, typically in the middle or beginning of the school day. Countries around the world ...
, for example by making them more expensive or less healthy; possibly even discarding the requirements entirely. One council also said that "special dietary requirements may be difficult to meet" and that fresh food might have to be replaced with frozen and tinned goods, while another mentioned the possibility of a return to rationing.


Foreign nationals

The British Government intended to treat EU citizens already living in the UK as it had proposed in the draft
Brexit withdrawal agreement The Brexit withdrawal agreement, officially titled Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, is a treaty between the European Uni ...
, though there would have been some variations. The British Government was hopeful this would be reciprocated for British nationals in the EU. The EU published a fact-sheet detailing information for British nationals in the EU. In August 2019, Boris Johnson communicated that he wanted the freedom of movement which allowed EU citizens to travel to the UK to be immediately stopped on 31 October. Those rules applicable 'til 31 October would have been replaced by new stricter non-stated rules.


Law enforcement

Metropolitan Police Deputy assistant commissioner Richard Martin stated that a no-deal exit would mean a loss of Europe-wide tools, databases and European Arrest Warrant, which would have limited the ability to detain foreign suspects in the UK and pursue British fugitives in the EU. The National Police Chiefs Council asked "prominent individuals" to avoid inciting anger and said 10,000 officers were ready for deployment in the UK in case of conflicts between citizens.


Banking and finance

A "temporary permissions regime" (TPR) was introduced so that in the event of no-deal, European Union banks, insurers and asset managers could simply notify British financial regulators to continue to serve British customers.


Motor insurance

A no-deal Brexit would have made the UK no longer party to the Motor Insurance Directive. According to Irish no deal preparedness plans,
Green Card A green card, known officially as a permanent resident card, is an identity document which shows that a person has permanent residency in the United States. ("The term 'lawfully admitted for permanent residence' means the status of having been ...
s would have been required by for British motorists wishing to travel to the EU (and vice versa) – an issue that will particularly affect the heavily traversed Irish border. As a consequence, one million Green Cards were sent to insurance companies and brokers in the Republic of Ireland alone, as part of a 'prudent advance planning' for a possible no-deal Brexit.


Northern Ireland

The UK's highest-ranking civil servant said in April 2019 that a no-deal Brexit would result in the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland. The May administration was committed to avoiding a "hard" border and honouring the
Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement The Good Friday Agreement (GFA), or Belfast Agreement ( ga, Comhaontú Aoine an Chéasta or ; Ulster-Scots: or ), is a pair of agreements signed on 10 April 1998 that ended most of the violence of The Troubles, a political conflict in No ...
. However, it was reported in March 2019 that its proposed approach might have violated other legal obligations and could have been challenged. In August 2019 it was reported that it was "understood" that a no-deal Brexit could challenge the question of the border between the UK and the EU on the island of Ireland, necessitating negotiation between the UK with the European Commission and/or the Irish government to jointly agree long-term measures to avoid a hard border. A forecast made in August 2019 had an expectation of a reduction of 19% in exports from Northern Ireland to Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit.


Oversea territories

The EU intended to define Gibraltar (in British law, 'a British Overseas Territory') as a "Colony of the British Crown" in draft legislation about visa-less travel to the EU in a no-deal scenario.


National security

Exiting the EU is expected to cause serious disruption to security relationships built up with the UK and may compromise British national security. The difficulties would have increased significantly in the event of a "no-deal" exit.


Military operations

British troops in Bosnia as part of an EU force would have needed to be placed under
NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, ; french: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique nord, ), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 30 member states – 28 European and two No ...
command. In February 2019,
The Times ''The Times'' is a British daily national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title ''The Daily Universal Register'', adopting its current name on 1 January 1788. ''The Times'' and its sister paper '' The Sunday Times'' (f ...
reported plans to evacuate the Royal Family from London in the event of rioting following a no-deal Brexit, however neither Buckingham Palace nor 10 Downing Street would comment on the report.


Tariffs

On 13 March 2019, the Department for International Trade released details of temporary tariff rates that would apply to imports if the United Kingdom left the EU without a deal. This tariff regime would have lasted for 12 months, then would have been reviewed. The new regime increased the percentage of items that were tariff free from 80% to 87%; products that would have become tariff-free included jams, jellies and marmalade (currently 24%), oranges (currently 16%), onions (currently 9.6%), peas (currently 8%), and televisions (currently 14%). However, there seemed to be no reason to expect these tariffs to be reciprocated and some exporters foresaw a complete loss of their major markets. On 22 July 2019, the Trade Secretary
Liam Fox Liam Fox (born 22 September 1961) is a British politician who served as Secretary of State for International Trade from 2016 to 2019 and Secretary of State for Defence from 2010 to 2011. A member of the Conservative Party, Fox has served as t ...
said that these were short-term transitory rates and should be expected to change.


Risks common to all areas


Legal

In the event of a "no-deal" exit existing legislation would have been used as far as possible to cover any essential contingency measures but a power of last resort was to use the
Civil Contingencies Act 2004 The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 (c. 36) is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom that makes provision about civil contingencies. It also replaces former Civil Defence and Emergency Powers legislation of the 20th century. Background to ...
to introduce temporary legislation. British government departments said existing legislation was sufficient.


Communications

The British Government withdrew communication resources with regard to a no-deal exit on 23 March 2019 due to it being out of date. The EU announced that British residents and undertakings would have been unable to register or renew .eu
domain names A domain name is a string that identifies a realm of administrative autonomy, authority or control within the Internet. Domain names are often used to identify services provided through the Internet, such as websites, email services and more. As ...
after the withdrawal date.


Data

The British Government issued a notice about how data protection law would have worked if the UK had left the EU without a deal.


GATT 24

It had been suggested by supporters of Brexit – including
Boris Johnson Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (; born 19 June 1964) is a British politician, writer and journalist who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party from 2019 to 2022. He previously served as F ...
– that, in the event of a no-deal scenario, paragraph 5b Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade might be used to avoid the need (under WTO rules) for the EU and UK to apply tariffs to their mutual trade. This position was criticised as unrealistic by
Mark Carney Mark Joseph Carney (born March 16, 1965) is a Canadian economist and banker who served as the governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013 and the governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. Since October 2020, he is vice chairman an ...
,
Liam Fox Liam Fox (born 22 September 1961) is a British politician who served as Secretary of State for International Trade from 2016 to 2019 and Secretary of State for Defence from 2010 to 2011. A member of the Conservative Party, Fox has served as t ...
and others, as paragraph 5c requires an agreement with the EU be in place for paragraph 5b to be of use, and would not cover services.


EU preparedness

The European Union issued a press release on 25 March 2019 saying that it had prepared for an increasingly likely "no-deal" scenario on 12 April 2019. It issued 90 preparedness notices, 3 Commission Communications, 19 legislative proposals, and a number of fact sheets for its citizens. For example, this included a nine-month temporary measure to allow the negotiation of a long term solution for the rail link between the UK and the continent. Different laws/waivers, including some under work, were considered, for instance: * to temporarily allow British citizens to travel without visa within the EU, if the UK had a reciprocal arrangement, * to allow Erasmus students to finish their year/semester, * to pay British beneficiaries if the UK complied with its obligations, * to pay fishers for the temporarily inactivity generated by Brexit, unless the EU shared its fish resources with the UK and the UK with the EU


Recasting of EU institutions

The immediate effects of withdrawal (had it been with or without a ratified treaty) were ending of the UK's membership of the
Council of the European Union The Council of the European Union, often referred to in the treaties and other official documents simply as the Council, and informally known as the Council of Ministers, is the third of the seven Institutions of the European Union (EU) as ...
and the
European Commission The European Commission (EC) is the executive of the European Union (EU). It operates as a cabinet government, with 27 members of the Commission (informally known as "Commissioners") headed by a President. It includes an administrative body ...
, and the loss of the 73 seats of British representatives in the European Parliament who were elected in the May
2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom The 2019 European Parliament election was the United Kingdom's component of the 2019 European Parliament election, held on Thursday 23 May 2019 and the results were announced on Sunday 26 and Monday 27 May 2019, after all the other EU countri ...
. The latter required re-apportionment of some of those seats among the remaining member states according to the result of the 2019 elections which took into account Brexit as planned.


Transport

Transport between the UK and the EU would have suffered from long delays, which the parties made efforts to ameliorate: * British airlines would have been able to operate flights between the UK and the EU until March 2020; * Eurostar, and shuttle would have been allowed to operate for three months * The status of the roads that cross the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remained unclear. Both sides vowed not to reintroduce border controls as required by WTO terms. (For details, see
Brexit and the Irish border The impact of Brexit on the Irish border and its adjacent polities involves changes in trade, customs, immigration checks, local economies, services, recognition of qualifications, medical cooperation, and other matters, now that it is the o ...
).


Galileo

Removal of Galileo satellite navigation infrastructure from the United Kingdom, Falklands and Ascension Islands is in the final stages of completion.


Member states preparedness


Austria

In case of a no-deal Brexit, Austria would have offered British nationals living in Austria a free six months delay to apply for a €160 residence permit with simplified rules which would not require speaking German to obtain residency.


Belgium

Belgium drafted, in case of a no-deal Brexit, a bilingual Dutch-French law offering a transition period until December 2020. This time offered the possibility for British citizens to apply for a €57 long-term residence permit, called a D-card, but specific to Brexit.


Bulgaria

Bulgaria would have offered British residents the same rights as EU citizens, but required them to re-register.


Croatia

Croatia would have offered to British nationals a free application for temporary residence upgradeable after no-deal Brexit to a HRK 79.50 resident ID card. Permanent residency is an option for people who have been there 5 years or more.


Cyprus

British authorities advised British nationals to register with the local authorities.


Czech Republic

Czechs had the most generous proposals with a draft law to offer 8,000 Britons living in the country a 21-month exemption from normal immigration laws, till the end of 2020. This offer relies on reciprocity for the 40,000 Czech citizens living in Britain.


France

France considered that a no deal Brexit (''sortie sèche'' in French) would occur because a withdrawal agreement had not been ratified. Accordingly, 200 measures were considered, including the possibility for the government to make and unmake laws by ''ordonnance'' (roughly equivalent to a statutory instrument). The rights of British citizens living in France are ruled by an ''ordonnance'' dated 6 February 2019 and by ''décrets'' (decrees) dated 2 and 3 April 2019. This included a 12-month period, assuming reciprocity, to allow British nationals to continue to live in France without ''titre de séjour''. After that, they must have had a ''carte de résident'' (10-year
residence permit A residence permit (less commonly ''residency permit'') is a document or card required in some regions, allowing a foreign national to reside in a country for a fixed or indefinite length of time. These may be permits for temporary residency, or p ...
) if they had lived in France for more than five years, otherwise one of the ''titres''. Border controls would have been made possible through an ''ordonnance'' and a ''décret'' of 23 January 2019 and an ''ordonnance'' of 27 March 2019 to establish border checks. An ''ordonnance'' of 30 January 2019 allowed the movement of defence goods between France and the United Kingdom to continue.


Germany

Germany would have offered British citizens three months to apply for residence permits. Germany also recruited 900 extra customs staff.


Greece

In July, Greece understood that "Boris Johnson's election as PM of the United Kingdom creates the conditions for a disorderly Brexit". For this reason, according to Varvitsiotis, Greece wanted to fix the "list of hundreds of pending issues that we must look at, because if they are not covered by an overall EU–UK agreement, all these agreements must be drawn up on a bilateral, national level." He wanted for all actions to respect both the "relations we have but also the relations that we will build from here on."


Republic of Ireland

The economies of both parts of Ireland were expected to be seriously affected by a no-deal Brexit. The EU planned to ensure that the economy of the
Republic of Ireland Ireland ( ga, Éire ), also known as the Republic of Ireland (), is a country in north-western Europe consisting of 26 of the 32 Counties of Ireland, counties of the island of Ireland. The capital and largest city is Dublin, on the eastern ...
was supported through the crisis with "a huge aid package" from the contingency fund. On 22 July 2019, an EU diplomat told
The Times ''The Times'' is a British daily national newspaper based in London. It began in 1785 under the title ''The Daily Universal Register'', adopting its current name on 1 January 1788. ''The Times'' and its sister paper '' The Sunday Times'' (f ...
that the bloc would "spend whatever was necessary" to support the Irish government through any disruption of trade. According to the then British Brexit Secretary,
Steve Barclay Stephen Paul Barclay (born 3 May 1972) is a British politician who has served as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care since October 2022, having previously held the position from July to September 2022 under Boris Johnson. He served a ...
, 40% of the Republic's
tangible Tangibility is the property of being able to be perceived by touch. A commonplace understanding of "tangibility" renders it as an attribute allowing something to be perceptible to the senses. In criminal law, one of the elements of an offense ...
s trade with continental Europe went via Dover/Calais, which (in a no-deal scenario) was expected to be seriously disrupted. Eamonn O’Reilly, CEO of Dublin Port, was quoted on 21 March 2019 as indicating the port was "as ready as we can be" for a No-deal Brexit with allocated for the eventuality.


Poland

Poland planned a draft law to offer Britons living in Poland a delay from no deal Brexit at midnight on 29–30 March in 2019, until 30 March 2020, to protect their rights by obtaining a temporary residence permit or permanent residence in Poland. Theresa May said: "Almost 1 million Poles make their lives in Britain. That is why securing the rights of Polish and other EU citizens was my priority in the Brexit negotiations.". The card would have been different from a normal residency permit, being a "Brexit" card.


Spain

Spain established a 42-page document of English-language royal decrees containing several chapters: # "General Provisions": the purpose of the Royal Decree-Law, mechanism of reciprocity, temporary nature, possible extension # "Citizens" sets forth the provisions affecting citizens that would require urgent adoption # "International Police and Judicial Cooperation" regulates international police and judicial cooperation, including some laws and instruments which cease to apply # "Economic Activities" with 4 sub-parts # "Transport" includes provisions on land transport


Sweden

The Swedish government adopted certain transitional rules to facilitate British citizens in Sweden in the event of withdrawal without deal or if an agreement is approved too late to be legislated. Most were valid for one year. * British citizens and their family members would not need a residence and work permit, they were exempted from fees for studying at universities and colleges in Sweden they were enrolled in at Brexit, and children without a residence permit could have continued to attend Swedish schools. * British driving licenses were valid for residents of Sweden for one year from Brexit, but a simple exchange to a Swedish driver's license was not included, so people should do that before Brexit. * Swedish citizens in the UK could receive pensions, health care costs and other social security benefits from Sweden during 2019.


EEA EFTA preparedness

Because the "EEA EFTA-UK separation agreement" would only apply if the Withdrawal Agreement was concluded between the EU and the UK, a no-deal agreement was also agreed: According to the gov.uk, "EEA EFTA no deal citizens'rights agreement" was the citizens' rights agreement with the EEA EFTA states to protect the rights of British and EEA EFTA nationals who had chosen to call each others' countries home. This would have come into effect in a no deal scenario. The official name of this agreement was "Agreement on arrangements regarding citizens’ rights between Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein, the Kingdom of Norway and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland following the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union and the EEA Agreement".


Other countries' positions on no-deal Brexit


United States

A no-deal Brexit was strongly supported by the
Trump Administration Donald Trump's tenure as the 45th president of the United States began with his inauguration on January 20, 2017, and ended on January 20, 2021. Trump, a Republican from New York City, took office following his Electoral College victory ...
. U.S. national security adviser
John R. Bolton John Robert Bolton (born November 20, 1948) is an American attorney, diplomat, Republican consultant, and political commentator. He served as the 25th United States Ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006, and as the 26th United Stat ...
told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that President Trump wanted to see a successful British exit from the European Union. A no-deal Brexit might also have offered a possible switch of British alignment to US rules rather than EU rules. However, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (leader of the Democratic Congressional majority) said that the House will refuse to ratify any US/UK
free trade agreement A free-trade agreement (FTA) or treaty is an agreement according to international law to form a free-trade area between the cooperating states. There are two types of trade agreements: bilateral and multilateral. Bilateral trade agreements occ ...
if the stability of the
Good Friday Agreement The Good Friday Agreement (GFA), or Belfast Agreement ( ga, Comhaontú Aoine an Chéasta or ; Ulster-Scots: or ), is a pair of agreements signed on 10 April 1998 that ended most of the violence of The Troubles, a political conflict in No ...
was imperilled.
Alexandra Hall Hall Alexandra Mary Hall Hall (born 1 February 1964) is a former British diplomat. Hall Hall studied at Durham University, where she read Economics and Politics, graduating with a 2:1 degree in 1986. She is married to Daniel Twining, head of the Int ...
, the Brexit Counsellor at the
British Embassy in Washington, D.C. The British Embassy, Washington D.C. (alternatively in the US, Embassy of the United Kingdom, Washington, D.C.) is the British sovereign's diplomatic mission to the United States of America, representing the interests of the United Kingdom and B ...
, resigned because she felt she was asked to "peddle half-truths on behalf of a government I do not trust". Hall Hall stated, "I have been increasingly dismayed by the way in which our political leaders have tried to deliver Brexit, with reluctance to address honestly, even with our own citizens, the challenges and trade-offs which Brexit involves; the use of misleading or disingenuous arguments about the implications of the various options before us; and some behaviour towards our institutions, which, were it happening in another country, we would almost certainly as diplomats have received instructions to register our concern."


Subsequent EU/UK free trade agreement negotiations

It is generally assumed that the UK and EU would have wished to negotiate a
free-trade agreement A free-trade agreement (FTA) or treaty is an agreement according to international law to form a free-trade area between the cooperating states. There are two types of trade agreements: bilateral and multilateral. Bilateral trade agreements occur ...
.
Dominic Raab Dominic Rennie Raab (; born 25 February 1974) is a British politician who has served as Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Secretary of State for Justice, and Lord Chancellor since October 2022, having previously served from 2021 to ...
, the British Foreign Secretary and
First Secretary of State The First Secretary of State is an office that is sometimes held by a minister of the Crown in the Government of the United Kingdom. The office indicates seniority, including over all other Secretaries of State. The office is not always in use, ...
, believed that the UK would be better able to negotiate an FTA with the EU after a no-deal Brexit. However the
Institute for Government The Institute for Government (IfG) is a British independent think tank which aims to improve government effectiveness through research and analysis. Based at 2 Carlton Gardens in central London and founded as a charity in 2008, it was initially ...
disagreed, pointing out that negotiations in that case would not be under Article 50 terms but under the EU's "third countries" arrangements which "take place on a different legal basis with a more complicated process and ratification requirements – which is likely to involve ratification in all 27 member state parliaments".


See also

* Church House Declaration


Notes


References


External links


EU "no-deal" factsheets

International Agreements if the UK leaves the EU without a deal (DExEU)

Prepare for Brexit if you live in the UK (UK Government guidance)
* * {{Brexit topics Consequences of Brexit