This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the

2016 United States presidential election The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticke ...

. The two major party candidates were chosen at the

Democratic National Convention The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is a series of presidential nominating conventions held every four years since 1832 by the United States Democratic Party. They have been administered by the Democratic National Committee since the 18 ...

and

Republican National Convention The Republican National Convention (RNC) is a series of presidential nominating conventions held every four years since 1856 by the United States Republican Party. They are administered by the Republican National Committee. The goal of the Repu ...

in July 2016.

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...

won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016, despite losing the popular vote while winning the electoral college. Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Clinton, but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts. Retrospective analyses differ as to why the polls and commentators interpreting them were unable to correctly forecast the result of the election. Two daily tracking polls, the UPI/CVoter poll and the

University of Southern California , mottoeng = "Let whoever earns the palm bear it" , religious_affiliation = Nonsectarian—historically Methodist , established = , accreditation = WSCUC , type = Private research university , academic_affiliations = , endowment = $8.1 ...

Los Angeles Times The ''Los Angeles Times'' (abbreviated as ''LA Times'') is a daily newspaper that started publishing in Los Angeles in 1881. Based in the LA-adjacent suburb of El Segundo since 2018, it is the sixth-largest newspaper by circulation in the ...

poll were the only polls that often incorrectly predicted a Trump popular vote victory or showed a nearly tied election.

Aggregate polls

Poll numbers verified .

Individual polls

Two-way race

After convention nominations

Polls conducted in 2016

Polls conducted in 2015

Polls conducted in 2014

Polls conducted in 2013

Three-way race

Four-way race

, 41% , align="center" , 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 1 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 13–17, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 6% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,190 , ±3.2% , - , , October 14–16, 2016 , align="center" , 50% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 12 , 805 , ±3.5% , - , , October 12–16, 2016 , align="center" , 47% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 9 , 1,411 , ±3.0% , - , , October 12–16, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" }, 41% , align="center" , 5% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 10–16, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" }, 40% , align="center" , 8% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 6 , 24,804 , ± 1.0% , - , , October 13–15, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 36% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 6 , 1,737 , ±2.0% , - , , October 11–14, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" }, 36% , align="center" , 5% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 10 , 845 , ±3.4% , - , , October 11–13, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 6% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 10–13, 2016 , align="center" , 48% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 11 , 1,000 , ±3.1% , - , , October 10–13, 2016 , align="center" , 47% , align="center", 43% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 4 , 740 , ±4.0% , - , , October 9–13, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 5 , 1,011 , ±3.1% , - , , October 8–13, 2016 , align="center" , 47% , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 8 , 1,000 , ±3.1% , - , , October 10–12, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center , 7 , 917 , ±3.0% , - , , October 10–12, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 6% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 10–11, 2016 , align="center" , 47% , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 6 , 953 , ±3.2% , - , , October 9–11, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 10, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 5 , 1,757 , ±3.0% , - , , October 8–10, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 36% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 9 , 806 , ±3.5% , - , , October 6–10, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 5 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 6–10, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 6% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 7 , 2,363 , ±2.3% , - , , September 27 – October 10, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" , 39% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 7 , 3,616 , ± 2.9% , - , , October 8–9, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center", 35% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 11 , 422 , ±4.6% , - , , October 5–9, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 7 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 5–9, 2016 , align="center" , 49% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 2% , align="center", 0% , align=center, 11 , 886 , ±3.9% , - , , October 3–9, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 5 , 23,329 , ±1.0% , - , , October 8, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 4 , 1,390 , ±3.0% , - , , October 7–8, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 1% , align=center, 6 , 1,300 , ±4.3% , - , , October 5–6, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,775 , ±2.0% , - , , October 5–6, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 6% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 5 , 1,064 , ±3.0% , - , , October 4–6, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 42% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 1 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 3–6, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 42% , align="center", 6% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 896 , ±3.0% , - , , September 30 – October 6, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 5 , 1,695 , ±3.0% , - , , October 3–5, 2016 , align="center", 41% , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , October 3, 2016 , align="center", 44% , align="center", 44% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 1% , align=center, Tied , 1,690 , ±2.5% , - , , October 1–3, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 3 , 911 , ±3.9% , - , , September 29 – October 3, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 36% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 6 , 1,239 , ±3.2% , - , , September 29 – October 3, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 1 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , September 30 – October 2, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 36% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 6 , 1,778 , ±2.0% , - , , September 28 – October 2, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 36% , align="center", 11% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 9 , 385 , ±5.0% , - , , September 28 – October 2, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 4 , 1,217 , ±3.0% , - , , September 28 – October 2, 2016 , align="center" , 47% , align="center", 42% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 5 , N/A , ±N/A% , - , , September 28 – October 2, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 3 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , September 26 – October 2, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 6 , 26,925 , ±1.0% , - , , September 27–29, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 3 , 911 , ±3.0% , - , , September 23–29, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 4 , 2,501 , ±2.0% , - , , September 26–28, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 1 , 1,500 , ±2.5% , - , , September 26–27, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 3 , 1,253 , ±3.0% , - , , September 1–27, 2016 , align="center" , 49% , align="center", 41% , align="center" , 4% , align="center", 1% , align=center, 8 , 2,010 , ±2.8% , - , , September 22–26, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,041 , ±3.5% , - , , September 22–25, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 43% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 1 , 1,115 , ±2.9% , - , , September 22–25, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center", 42% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 4 , 729 , ±3.6% , - , , September 19–25, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 5 , 13,598 , ±1.1% , - , , September 22–24, 2016 , align="center", 38% , align="center" , 39% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 1 , 1,712 , ±2.0% , - , , September 22–24, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 3 , 948 , ±3.8% , - , , September 21–24, 2016 , align="center", 41% , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 2 , 1,002 , ±3.1% , - , , September 19–22, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center", 44% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 1% , align=center, 2 , 651 , ±4.5% , - , , September 18–22, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 43% , align="center", 6% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,017 , ±3.1% , - , , September 16–22, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,559 , ±3.0% , - , , September 20–21, 2016 , align="center", 39% , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 5 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , September 20, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,560 , ±2.5% , - , , September 15–20, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 6 , 758 , ±3.6% , - , , September 18–19, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 936 , ±4.0% , - , , September 16–19, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 6 , 922 , ±3.2% , - , , September 15–19, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 5 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , September 15–19, 2016 , align="center", 37% , align="center" , 39% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,111 , ±3.4% , - , , September 15–19, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 6 , 1,251 , ±2.5% , - , , September 12–18, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 5 , 13,230 , ±1.2% , - , , September 15–16, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,639 , ±2.0% , - , , September 12–16, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 5 , 1,005 , ±3.0% , - , , September 11–14, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 1 , 867 , ±3.0% , - , , September 12–13, 2016 , align="center", 40% , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , September 11–13, 2016 , align="center", 41% , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 800 , ±3.4% , - , , September 10–13, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 5% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,087 , ±4.0% , - , , September 9–13, 2016 , align="center", 42% , align="center", 42% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 4% , align=center, Tied , 1,433 , ±3.0% , - , , September 8–13, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 13% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 2 , 960 , ±3.2% , - , , September 8–12, 2016 , align="center", 39% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 2% , align=center, Tied , 1,127 , ±3.3% , - , , August 16 – September 12, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 2 , 3,941 , ±2.6% , - , , September 5–11, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 11% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 2 , 16,220 , ±1.1% , - , , September 7–8, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 1% , align=center, 3 , 2,348 , ±2.0% , - , , September 6–8, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 10% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,710 , ±2.0% , - , , September 5–8, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 5 , 642 , ±4.5% , - , , September 6–7, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , September 4–6, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 5% , align=center, 2 , 1,077 , ±4.7% , - , , September 1–5, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center", 38% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,084 , ±3.5% , - , , September 1–4, 2016 , align="center", 43% , align="center" , 45% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, 2 , 786 , ±3.5% , - , , August 31 – September 4, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center", 41% , align="center", 8% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 3 , 1,025 , ±3.1% , - , , August 29 – September 4, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center", 37% , align="center", 12% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 4 , 32,226 , ±1.0% , - , , September 1–2, 2016 , align="center" , 38% , align="center", 36% , align="center", 9% , align="center", 4% , align=center, 2 , 2,001 , ±2.0% , - , , August 28 – September 1, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center", 40% , align="center", 11% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,000 , ±3.1% , - , , August 26 – September 1, 2016 , align="center", 39% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 2% , align=center, Tied , 1,804 , ±3.0% , - , , August 26 – September 1, 2016 , align="center", 39% , align="center", 39% , align="center", 12% , align="center", 3% , align=center, Tied , 861 , ±3.4% , - , , August 29–30, 2016 , align="center", 39% , align="center" , 40% , align="center", 7% , align="center", 3% , align=center, 1 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , August 28–30, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 2 , 1,011 , ±3.0% , - , , August 27–29, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 5 , 1,119 , ±4.0% , - , , August 25–29, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 2 , 1,404 , ±3.0% , - , , August 25–29, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 7 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , August 25–28, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 7 , 689 , ±3.5% , - , , August 22–28, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 11% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 4 , 24,104 , ±1.0% , - , , August 24–26, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 2 , 2,007 , ±2.0% , - , , August 22–25, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 3 , 1,154 , ±3.0% , - , , August 23–24, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , August 20–24, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 3 , 1,049 , ±2.9% , - , , August 18–24, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 7 , 1,498 , ±2.5% , - , , August 22–23, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 4% , align="center" , 1% , align=center, 1 , 1,493 , ±2.5% , - , , August 19–23, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 4 , 1,080 , ±4.1% , - , , August 18–22, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 33% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 8 , 1,115 , ±3.0% , - , , August 15–21, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 11% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 5 , 17,451 , ±1.1% , - , , August 16–20, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 3 , 2,001 , ±2.0% , - , , August 13–17, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,049 , ±2.8% , - , , August 15–16, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , August 11–16, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 6 , 1,076 , ±4.1% , - , , August 9–16, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 4 , 1,567 , ±2.8% , - , , August 9–15, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 8 , 1,000 , ±3.1% , - , , August 8–14, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 11% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 6 , 15,179 , ±1.2% , - , , August 12–13, 2016 , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 2 , 1,277 , ±2.8% , - , , August 11–14, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 33% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 6 , 2,001 , ±2.0% , - , , August 6–10, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 5 , 974 , ±2.9% , - , , August 9–10, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 3 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , August 9, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 5 , 2,832 , ±1.8% , - , , August 6–9, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 6 , 1,300 , ±4.2% , - , , August 5–8, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 4 , 749 , ±3.6% , - , , August 4–7, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 2% , align="center" , 1% , align=center, 6 , 1,000 , ±3.9% , - , , August 4–7, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" , 34% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 12 , 803 , ±3.5% , - , , August 1–7, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 6 , 11,480 , ±1.2% , - , , August 4–5, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 33% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 8 , 2,001 , ±2.0% , - , , August 1–4, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 8 , 1,002 , ±3.5% , - , , July 31 – August 4, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,154 , ±3.0% , - , , July 29 – August 4, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 12% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 4 , 851 , ±3.4% , - , , August 1–3, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 31% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 6% , align=center, 14 , 983 , ±3.1% , - , , July 31 – August 3, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 34% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 9 , 800 , ±3.5% , - , , July 30 – August 3, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 4 , 1,072 , ±3.5% , - , , August 1–2, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 4 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , July 31 – August 1, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 5 , 1,300 , ±4.0% , - , , July 29–31, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 8 , 894 , ±3.5% , - , , July 25–31, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 5 , 12,742 , ±1.2% , - , , July 29–30, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 5 , 1,276 , ±2.7% , - , , July 29, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" , 31% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 15 , 956 , ±3.2% , - , , July 25–29, 2016 , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 1% , align=center, Tied , 1,788 , ±2.4% , - , , July 23–24, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,300 , ±4.5% , - , , July 22–24, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 44% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 5 , 882 , ±3.5% , - , , July 21–24, 2016 , align="center" , 46% , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 1% , align="center" , 1% , align=center, 4 , 818 , ±4.0% , - , , July 18–24, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 2 , 12,931 , ±1.2% , - , , July 22, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 34% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 5 , 909 , ±3.3% , - , , July 21–22, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 3% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 1 , 912 , ±N/A% , - , , July 16–20, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 4 , 1,522 , ±2.9% , - , , July 15–17, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 3 , 1,300 , ±4.2% , - , , July 11–17, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 1 , 9,436 , ±1.4% , - , , July 14–16, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 1% , align=center, 2 , 688 , ±3.7% , - , , July 13–16, 2016 , align="center" , 44% , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 3 , 1,007 , ±3.1% , - , , July 13–16, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 13% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 5 , 872 , ±3.5% , - , , July 11–14, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 4 , 1,000 , ±N/A% , - , , July 11–14, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 4 , 1,003 , ±3.5% , - , , July 9–13, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 11% , align="center" , 6% , align=center, 6 , 1,000 , ±3.1% , - , , July 9–11, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 3 , 1,300 , ±4.2% , - , , July 7–11, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 4 , 837 , ±3.3% , - , , July 4–10, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 11% , align="center" , 6% , align=center, 2 , 7,869 , ±1.4% , - , , July 7–9, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 29% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 12 , 781 , ±3.5% , - , , July 5–9, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 5 , 1,249 , ±3.0% , - , , July 2–6, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 33% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 9 , 1,345 , ±2.8% , - , , July 2–4, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 4% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 5 , 1,300 , ±3.9% , - , , June 27 – July 3, 2016 , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 3 , 10,072 , ±1.3% , - , , June 26–29, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 35% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 4 , 1,000 , ±3.0% , - , , June 25–29, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 31% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 11 , 1,247 , ±2.8% , - , , June 24–29, 2016 , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 1 , 837 , ±3.5% , - , , June 27–28, 2016 , align="center" , 45% , align="center" , 41% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 4 , 947 , ±3.2% , - , , June 21–27, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 8% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 2 , 1,610 , ±2.4% , - , , June 20–26, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 6 , 5,818 , ±1.8% , - , , June 20–23, 2016 , align="center" , 47% , align="center" , 37% , align="center" , 7% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 10 , 836 , ±4.0% , - , , June 19–23, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 10% , align="center" , 6% , align=center, 1 , 1,000 , ±3.1% , - , , June 18–22, 2016 , align="center" , 43% , align="center" , 34% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 9 , 1,339 , ±2.8% , - , , June 16–19, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 7% , align=center, 4 , 891 , ±3.5% , - , , June 15–19, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 6 , 803 , ±3.5% , - , , June 13–19, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 4 , 16,135 , ±1.1% , - , , June 11–15, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 29% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 10 , 1,323 , ±2.8% , - , , June 6–12, 2016 , align="center" , 42% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 5% , align=center, 4 , 10,604 , ±1.3% , - , , June 8, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 36% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 3 , 1,408 , ±2.7% , - , , May 30 – June 5, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 34% , align="center" , 6% , align="center" , 2% , align=center, 6 , 837 , ±3.5% , - , , May 30 – June 5, 2016 , align="center" , 39% , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 9% , align="center" , 4% , align=center, 1 , 9,240 , ±1.4% , - , , May 24–30, 2016 , align="center" , 40% , align="center" , 38% , align="center" , 5% , align="center" , 3% , align=center, 2 , 1,561 , ±2.5%

Five-way race

Post-election analysis

BBC News BBC News is an operational business division of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) responsible for the gathering and broadcasting of news and current affairs in the UK and around the world. The department is the world's largest broadc ...

'' discussed whether polling should be abandoned due to its perceived failure. ''

Forbes magazine ''Forbes'' () is an American business magazine owned by Integrated Whale Media Investments and the Forbes family. Published eight times a year, it features articles on finance, industry, investing, and marketing topics. ''Forbes'' also rep ...

'' contributor astrophysicist Ethan Siegel performed a scientific analysis and raised whether the

statistical population In statistics, a population is a set of similar items or events which is of interest for some question or experiment. A statistical population can be a group of existing objects (e.g. the set of all stars within the Milky Way galaxy) or a hypoth ...

sampled for the polling was inaccurate, and cited the cautionary adage "

Garbage in, garbage out In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording. The principle applies to all logical argumentatio ...

". He concluded there may have been

sampling bias In statistics, sampling bias is a bias in which a sample is collected in such a way that some members of the intended population have a lower or higher sampling probability than others. It results in a biased sample of a population (or non-human f ...

on the part of the pollsters. Siegel compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the " Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election. Despite all this, however, nationwide polling was not far off from the actual popular vote result, and in fact very few states had results that deviated from the margin of error in the polling average. In a FiveThirtyEight article, Nate Silver defended the performance of the polls in 2016 as historically average, and argued that "Media organizations need to do a better job of informing their readers about the uncertainties associated with polling". A particular case was the

USC USC most often refers to: * University of South Carolina, a public research university ** University of South Carolina System, the main university and its satellite campuses ** South Carolina Gamecocks, the school athletic program * University of ...

Daybreak tracking poll, which was different from other polls as it had Donald Trump in the lead more often than not. The poll's findings caused skepticism, especially from other pollsters and media outlets, who have denounced it and often criticized the LA Times for running it. Before the election, Nate Silver deemed as positive the fact that the poll allowed people to assign themselves a probability of voting for either candidate instead of saying they're 100 percent sure, saying if people are "going to browbeat a pollster, et'sdo it to a pollster who is doing things cheaply—some of the robopolls qualify—and not one that’s trying to move the ball forward, like the LA Times poll." The LA Times concluded after the preliminary results of the election were published: "That doesn't necessarily mean that a poll conducted online, the way the Daybreak poll is, necessarily will be more accurate than polls conducted by phone. But it is yet another indication that polling needs more, diverse ways to look at public opinion, not fewer."

References

{{United States presidential election, 2016 Opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election