Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko
russian: Михаил Иванович Будыко (20 January 1920 – 10 December 2001) was a Soviet and Russian
climatologist
Climatology (from Greek , ''klima'', "place, zone"; and , ''-logia'') or climate science is the scientific study of Earth's climate, typically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of at least 30 years. This modern field of study ...
and one of the founders of physical climatology. He pioneered studies on global climate and calculated temperature of
Earth
Earth is the third planet from the Sun and the only astronomical object known to harbor life. While large volumes of water can be found throughout the Solar System, only Earth sustains liquid surface water. About 71% of Earth's surfa ...
considering simple physical model of equilibrium in which the incoming solar radiation absorbed by the Earth's system is balanced by the energy re-radiated to space as
thermal energy
The term "thermal energy" is used loosely in various contexts in physics and engineering. It can refer to several different well-defined physical concepts. These include the internal energy or enthalpy of a body of matter and radiation; heat, d ...
.
Budyko's groundbreaking book, ''Heat Balance of the Earth's Surface'', published in 1956, transformed
climatology
Climatology (from Greek , ''klima'', "place, zone"; and , '' -logia'') or climate science is the scientific study of Earth's climate, typically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of at least 30 years. This modern field of stud ...
from a qualitative into a quantitative physical science. These new physical methods based on heat balance were quickly adopted by climatologists around the world. In 1963, Budyko directed the compilation of an atlas illustrating the components of the Earth's heat balance.
Life
Ethnically
Belarusian, Budyko earned his
M.Sc.
A Master of Science ( la, Magisterii Scientiae; abbreviated MS, M.S., MSc, M.Sc., SM, S.M., ScM or Sc.M.) is a master's degree in the field of science awarded by universities in many countries or a person holding such a degree. In contrast to ...
in 1942 from the Division of Physics of the Leningrad Polytechnic Institute. As a researcher at the Leningrad Geophysical Observatory, he received his doctorate in physical and mathematical sciences in 1951. Budyko served as deputy director of the Geophysical Observatory until 1954, as director until 1972, and as head of the Division for Physical Climatology at the observatory from 1972 until 1975. In that year he was appointed director of the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute in
Leningrad
Saint Petersburg ( rus, links=no, Санкт-Петербург, a=Ru-Sankt Peterburg Leningrad Petrograd Piter.ogg, r=Sankt-Peterburg, p=ˈsankt pʲɪtʲɪrˈburk), formerly known as Petrograd (1914–1924) and later Leningrad (1924–1991), i ...
.
Studies
He was the first researcher to discuss the Pleistocene
megafauna
In terrestrial zoology, the megafauna (from Greek μέγας ''megas'' "large" and New Latin ''fauna'' "animal life") comprises the large or giant animals of an area, habitat, or geological period, extinct and/or extant. The most common threshold ...
extinction. Budyko published a study in 1969 outlining
Arctic amplification, describing how
Arctic sea ice decline
Arctic sea ice decline has occurred in recent decades due to the effects of climate change on oceans, with declines in sea ice area, extent, and volume. Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in the winter. ...
affects Arctic temperatures due to the
ice–albedo feedback
Ice–albedo feedback is a positive feedback climate process where a change in the area of ice caps, glaciers, and sea ice alters the albedo and surface temperature of a planet. Ice is very reflective, therefore it reflects far more solar energy ba ...
. The study attracted significant attention since it hinted at the possibility for a runaway positive feedback within the global climate system.
In 1972, Budyko published forecasts focusing on Arctic sea ice and global mean temperature extending out 100 years. He calculated that a few tenths of one percent increase in solar radiation input could melt the icecaps. Budyko reckoned that, as early as 2050, the Arctic Ocean's ice cover could be melted away entirely. His models showed that a 50% increase in atmospheric CO
2 would melt all the polar ice, whereas a reduction of the gas by half "could lead to a complete glaciation of the Earth." For the period 1970 to 2019, Budyko's model predicted an increase in the global mean temperature of and the disappearance of about 50% of Arctic multiyear ice. Observations have since corroborated his figures, recording that mean global temperature increased by over this period and that the extent of multiyear Arctic sea ice in September 2019 was about 46% smaller than in 1970. He predicted that Earth's mean global temperature would increase about by 2070.
In 1972, Budyko calculated that a mere few tenths of one percent increase in
solar radiation
Solar irradiance is the power per unit area (surface power density) received from the Sun in the form of electromagnetic radiation in the wavelength range of the measuring instrument.
Solar irradiance is measured in watts per square metre (W/m ...
input could melt the
ice cap
In glaciology, an ice cap is a mass of ice that covers less than of land area (usually covering a highland area). Larger ice masses covering more than are termed ice sheets.
Description
Ice caps are not constrained by topographical features ...
s. Moreover, his models similarly indicated that a
50% increase in atmospheric CO2 would melt all the
polar ice
A polar ice cap or polar cap is a high-latitude region of a planet, dwarf planet, or natural satellite that is covered in ice.
There are no requirements with respect to size or composition for a body of ice to be termed a polar ice cap, nor a ...
, whereas reduction of the gas by half "can lead to a complete glaciation of the Earth." Due to the rising use of fossil fuels, at some time "comparatively soon (probably not later than a hundred years)... a substantial rise in air temperature will take place." As early as 2050, Budyko calculated, the
Arctic Ocean
The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and shallowest of the world's five major oceans. It spans an area of approximately and is known as the coldest of all the oceans. The International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) recognizes it as an ocean, a ...
's ice cover could be melted away entirely.
In 1987 Budyko together with
Yuri Izrael published a study on anthropogenic climate change dealing with climate impact assessment, concluding that parts of the northern hemisphere would gain some benefit from climate change.
However, near the end of his life in 1998 he gave a speech titled, "Global Climate Warming and its Consequence" when accepting the
Blue Planet Prize
The recognises outstanding efforts in scientific research or applications of science that contribute to solving global environmental problems. The prize was created by the Asahi Glass Foundation in 1992, the year of the Rio Earth Summit, and ...
1998, and concluding, "On balance, it is very difficult to conclude with higher accuracy whether the projected global warming would be globally beneficial to human society or not."
In 1990, Budyko was co-author of section five of the
IPCC First Assessment Report
The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was completed in 1990. It served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This report had effects not only on t ...
, writing about equilibrium climate change and its implications for the future, and was a peer reviewer for the report.
Climate engineering
Budyko is believed to have been the first, in 1974, to put forth the concept of artificial
solar radiation management
Solar geoengineering, or solar radiation modification (SRM), is a type of climate engineering in which sunlight (solar radiation) would be reflected back to outer space to limit or reverse human-caused climate change. It is not a substitute for ...
with stratospheric
sulfate aerosols if
global warming
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to E ...
ever became a pressing issue. This
climate engineering
Climate engineering (also called geoengineering) is a term used for both carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM), also called solar geoengineering, when applied at a planetary scale.IPCC (2022Chapter 1: Introduction and F ...
proposal has been dubbed "
Budyko's Blanket" in his honor.
Nature’s View of Geoengineering
/ref>
Bibliography
*Испарение в естественных условиях, Л., 1948;
*Атлас теплового баланса, Л., 1955 (ред.);
*Тепловой баланс земной поверхности, Л., 1956.
*Andronova, Natalia G. ''Budyko, Mikhail Ivanovich.'' In Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, edited by Ted Munn, vol. 1. New York: Wiley, 2002.
*''Dr. Mikhail I. Budyko.'' Profiles of the 1998 Blue Planet Prize Recipients. The Asahi Glass Foundation. 2001 ited May 23, 2002br>
*Budyko, M. I., G. S. Golitsyn, and Y. A. Izrael. Global Climatic Catastrophes. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1988.
*Budyko, M. I., Global Ecology. Progress Publisher Moscow, 1980
*Budyko, M. I. and Y. A. Izrael., eds. Anthropogenic Climatic Change. Tucson: University of Arizona Press, 1991.
*Budyko, M. I., A. B. Ronov, and A. L. Yanshin. History of the Earth's Atmosphere. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1987.
*Budyko, Mikhail I. "Global Climate Warming and its Consequence." Blue Planet Prize 1998 Commemorative Lectures . Ecology Symphony. October 30, 1998 ited May 23, 2002
Notes
References
External links
Mikhail I. Budyko's Ice-Albedo Feedback Model
Mikhail Budyko's (1920–2001) contributions to Global Climate Science: from heat balances to climate change and global ecology
Oral history interview transcript with Mikhail Budyko on 25 March 1990, American Institute of Physics, Niels Bohr Library & Archives
- interview conducted by Spencer Weart
{{DEFAULTSORT:Budyko, Mikhail
1920 births
2001 deaths
Corresponding Members of the USSR Academy of Sciences
Full Members of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University alumni
Lenin Prize winners
Recipients of the Order "For Merit to the Fatherland", 4th class
Recipients of the Order of the Red Banner of Labour
Russian people of Belarusian descent
Russian climatologists
Burials at Serafimovskoe Cemetery
Soviet meteorologists