Leonid A. Gavrilov
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The reliability theory of aging is an attempt to apply the principles of
reliability theory Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline of systems engineering that emphasizes the ability of equipment to function without failure. Reliability describes the ability of a system or component to function under stated conditions for a specifi ...
to create a mathematical model of senescence. The theory was published in Russian by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova as ''Biologiia prodolzhitelʹnosti zhizni'' in 1986, and in English translation as ''The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach'' in 1991. One of the models suggested in the book is based on an analogy with the reliability theory. The underlying
hypothesis A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous obse ...
is based on the (previously suggested) premise that humans are born in a highly defective state. This is then made worse by environmental and mutational damage; exceptionally high redundancy due to the extremely high number of low-reliable components (e.g..,
cell Cell most often refers to: * Cell (biology), the functional basic unit of life Cell may also refer to: Locations * Monastic cell, a small room, hut, or cave in which a religious recluse lives, alternatively the small precursor of a monastery ...
s) allows the organism to survive for a while. The theory suggests an explanation of two aging phenomena for higher organisms: the Gompertz law of exponential increase in mortality rates with age and the "late-life mortality plateau" (mortality deceleration compared to the Gompertz law at higher ages).Gavrilov, Gavrilova (2001). The book criticizes a number of hypotheses known at the time, discusses drawbacks of the hypotheses put forth by the authors themselves, and concludes that regardless of the suggested mathematical models, the underlying biological mechanisms remain unknown.


See also

DNA damage theory of aging The DNA damage theory of aging proposes that aging is a consequence of unrepaired accumulation of naturally occurring DNA damage. Damage in this context is a DNA alteration that has an abnormal structure. Although both mitochondrial and nuclear D ...


References

{{senescence Systems theory Reliability engineering Failure Survival analysis Theories of biological ageing