''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report
that discussed the possibility of exponential
economic
An economy is an area of the Production (economics), production, Distribution (economics), distribution and trade, as well as Consumption (economics), consumption of Goods (economics), goods and Service (economics), services. In general, it is ...
and
population growth
Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to ...
with finite supply of resources, studied by
computer simulation
Computer simulation is the process of mathematical modelling, performed on a computer, which is designed to predict the behaviour of, or the outcome of, a real-world or physical system. The reliability of some mathematical models can be dete ...
. The study used the
World3
The World3 model is a system dynamics model for computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the earth. It was originally produced and used by a Club of Rome study that p ...
computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems. The model was based on the work of
Jay Forrester
Jay Wright Forrester (July 14, 1918 – November 16, 2016) was a pioneering American computer engineer and systems scientist. He is credited with being one of the inventors of magnetic core memory, the predominant form of random-access computer ...
of
MIT
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a private land-grant research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Established in 1861, MIT has played a key role in the development of modern technology and science, and is one of the m ...
,
as described in his book ''World Dynamics''.
Commissioned by the
Club of Rome
The Club of Rome is a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing global issues. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, Italy. It consists ...
, the findings of the study were first presented at international gatherings in Moscow and Rio de Janeiro in the summer of 1971.
The report's authors are
Donella H. Meadows,
Dennis L. Meadows
Dennis Lynn Meadows (born June 7, 1942) is an American scientist and Emeritus Professor of Systems Management, and former director of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research at the University of New Hampshire. He is President of t ...
,
Jørgen Randers
Jørgen Randers (born 22 May 1945) is a Norwegian academic, professor emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and practitioner in the field of future studies. , and William W. Behrens III, representing a team of 17 researchers.
The report concludes that, without substantial changes in resource consumption, "the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". Although its methods and
premise
A premise or premiss is a true or false statement that helps form the body of an argument, which logically leads to a true or false conclusion. A premise makes a declarative statement about its subject matter which enables a reader to either agre ...
s were heavily challenged on its publication, subsequent work to validate its forecasts continue to confirm that insufficient changes have been made since 1972 to significantly alter their nature.
Since its publication, some 30 million copies of the book in 30 languages have been purchased.
It continues to generate debate and has been the subject of several subsequent publications.
''
Beyond the Limits
''Beyond the Limits'' is a 1992 book continuing the modeling of the consequences of a rapidly growing global population that was started in the 1972 report ''Limits to Growth''. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jørgen Randers are the authors ...
'' and ''The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update'' were published in 1992 and 2004 respectively,
in 2012, a 40-year forecast from Jørgen Randers, one of the book's original authors, was published as ''2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years'',
and in 2022 two of the original ''Limits to Growth'' authors, Dennis Meadows and Jorgen Randers, joined 19 other contributors to produce ''Limits and Beyond''.
Purpose
In commissioning the MIT team to undertake the project that resulted in ''LTG'', the
Club of Rome
The Club of Rome is a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing global issues. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, Italy. It consists ...
had three objectives:
# Gain insights into the limits of our world system and the constraints it puts on human numbers and activity.
# Identify and study the dominant elements, and their interactions, that influence the long-term behavior of world systems.
# To warn of the likely outcome of contemporary economic and industrial policies, with a view to influencing changes to a sustainable lifestyle.
Methodology
The World3 model is based on five variables: "
population
Population typically refers to the number of people in a single area, whether it be a city or town, region, country, continent, or the world. Governments typically quantify the size of the resident population within their jurisdiction using a ...
,
food production
The food industry is a complex, global network of diverse businesses that supplies most of the food consumed by the world's population. The food industry today has become highly diversified, with manufacturing ranging from small, traditional, ...
,
industrialization
Industrialisation ( alternatively spelled industrialization) is the period of social and economic change that transforms a human group from an agrarian society into an industrial society. This involves an extensive re-organisation of an econo ...
,
pollution
Pollution is the introduction of contaminants into the natural environment that cause adverse change. Pollution can take the form of any substance (solid, liquid, or gas) or energy (such as radioactivity, heat, sound, or light). Pollutants, the ...
, and
consumption of nonrenewable natural resources".
At the time of the study, all these variables were increasing and were assumed to continue to grow
exponentially
Exponential may refer to any of several mathematical topics related to exponentiation, including:
*Exponential function, also:
**Matrix exponential, the matrix analogue to the above
* Exponential decay, decrease at a rate proportional to value
*Exp ...
, while the ability of technology to increase resources grew only
linearly
Linearity is the property of a mathematical relationship (''function'') that can be graphically represented as a straight line. Linearity is closely related to '' proportionality''. Examples in physics include rectilinear motion, the linear r ...
.
The authors intended to explore the possibility of a sustainable feedback pattern that would be achieved by altering growth trends among the five variables under three scenarios. They noted that their projections for the values of the variables in each scenario were predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word", and were only indications of the system's behavioral tendencies.
Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid- to latter-part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a "stabilized world".
Exponential reserve index
A key idea in ''The Limits to Growth'' is the notion that if the rate of resource use is increasing, the number of reserves cannot be calculated by simply taking the current known reserves and dividing them by the current yearly usage, as is typically done to obtain a static index. For example, in 1972, the amount of
chromium
Chromium is a chemical element with the symbol Cr and atomic number 24. It is the first element in group 6. It is a steely-grey, lustrous, hard, and brittle transition metal.
Chromium metal is valued for its high corrosion resistance and hardne ...
reserves was 775 million metric tons, of which 1.85 million metric tons were mined annually. The static index is 775/1.85=418 years, but the rate of chromium consumption was growing at 2.6 percent annually, or
exponentially
Exponential may refer to any of several mathematical topics related to exponentiation, including:
*Exponential function, also:
**Matrix exponential, the matrix analogue to the above
* Exponential decay, decrease at a rate proportional to value
*Exp ...
.
If instead of assuming a constant rate of usage, the assumption of a constant rate of growth of 2.6 percent annually is made, the resource will instead last
:
In general, the formula for calculating the amount of time left for a resource with constant consumption growth is:
:
where:
:''y'' = years left;
:''r'' = the
continuous compounding growth rate;
:''s'' = R/C or static reserve;
:''R'' = reserve;
:''C'' = (annual) consumption.
Commodity reserve extrapolation
The chapter contains a large table that spans five pages in total, based on actual geological reserves data for a total of 19 non-renewable resources, and analyzes their reserves at 1972 modeling time of their exhaustion under three scenarios: static (constant growth), exponential, and exponential with reserves multiplied by 5 to account for possible discoveries. A short excerpt from the table is presented below:
:
The chapter also contains a detailed computer model of chromium availability with current (as of 1972) and double the known reserves as well as numerous statements on the current increasing price trends for discussed metals:
Due to the detailed nature and use of actual resources and their real-world price trends, the indexes have been interpreted as a prediction of the number of years until the world would "run out" of them, both by environmentalist groups calling for greater conservation and restrictions on use and by skeptics criticizing the accuracy of the predictions. This interpretation has been widely propagated by media and environmental organizations, and authors who, apart from a note about the possibility of the future flows being "more complicated", did not clearly constrain or deny this interpretation. While environmental organizations used it to support their arguments, a number of economists used it to criticize ''LTG'' as a whole shortly after publication in the 1970s (Peter Passel, Marc Roberts, and Leonard Ross), with similar criticism reoccurring from Ronald Baily, George Goodman and others in the 1990s.
In 2011 Ugo Bardi in "The Limits to Growth Revisited" argued that "nowhere in the book was it stated that the numbers were supposed to be read as predictions", nonetheless as they were the only tangible numbers referring to actual resources, they were promptly picked as such by both supporters as well as opponents.
While Chapter 2 serves as an introduction to the concept of exponential growth modeling, the actual World3 model uses an abstract "non-renewable resources" component based on static coefficients rather than the actual physical commodities described above.
Conclusions
After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:
The introduction goes on to say:
Criticism
''LTG'' provoked a wide range of responses, including immediate criticisms almost as soon as it was published.
Peter Passell and two co-authors published a 2 April 1972 article in the ''New York Times'' describing ''LTG'' as "an empty and misleading work ... best summarized ... as a rediscovery of the oldest maxim of computer science:
Garbage In, Garbage Out
In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, or nonsense (garbage) input data produces nonsense output. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording.
The principle applies to all logical argumentati ...
". Passell found the study's simulation to be simplistic while assigning little value to the role of technological progress in solving the problems of resource depletion, pollution, and food production. They charged that all ''LTG'' simulations ended in collapse, predicting the imminent end of irreplaceable resources. Passell also charged that the entire endeavour was motivated by a hidden agenda: to halt growth in its tracks.
In 1973, a group of researchers at the Science Policy Research Unit at the
University of Sussex
, mottoeng = Be Still and Know
, established =
, type = Public research university
, endowment = £14.4 million (2020)
, budget = £319.6 million (2019–20)
, chancellor = Sanjeev Bhaskar
, vice_chancellor = Sasha Roseneil
, ...
concluded that simulations in ''Limits to Growth'' were very sensitive to a few key assumptions and suggest that the MIT assumptions were unduly pessimistic, and the MIT methodology, data, and projections were faulty. However, the ''LTG'' team, in a paper entitled "A Response to Sussex", described and analyzed five major areas of disagreement between themselves and the Sussex authors. The team asserted that the Sussex critics applied "micro reasoning to macro problems", and suggested that their own arguments had been either misunderstood or wilfully misrepresented. They pointed out that the critics had failed to suggest any alternative model for the interaction of growth processes and resource availability, and "nor had they described in precise terms the sort of social change and technological advances that they believe would accommodate current growth processes."
At the time, "the very hint of any global limitation as suggested in the report
..was met with disbelief and rejection by businesses
and most economists."
Critics declared that history proved the projections to be incorrect, such as the predicted resource depletion and associated economic collapse by the end of the 20th century.
The methodology, the computer, the conclusions, the rhetoric and the people behind the project were criticised.
[Alan Atkisson (2010)]
''Believing Cassandra: How to be an Optimist in a Pessimist's World''
Earthscan, p. 13. Yale economist
Henry C. Wallich
Henry Christopher Wallich (; June 10, 1914 – September 15, 1988) was a German American economist who served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1974 to 1986. He previously served as a member of the Council of the Economic ...
agreed that growth could not continue indefinitely, but that a natural end to growth was preferable to intervention. Wallich stated that technology could solve all the problems the report was concerned about, but only if growth continued apace. By stopping growth too soon, Wallich warned, the world would be "consigning billions to permanent poverty".
Julian Simon
Julian Lincoln Simon (February 12, 1932 – February 8, 1998) was an American professor of business administration at the University of Maryland and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute at the time of his death, after previously serving as a ...
, a professor at the Universities of
Illinois
Illinois ( ) is a U.S. state, state in the Midwestern United States, Midwestern United States. Its largest metropolitan areas include the Chicago metropolitan area, and the Metro East section, of Greater St. Louis. Other smaller metropolita ...
and, later,
Maryland
Maryland ( ) is a state in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. It shares borders with Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia to its south and west; Pennsylvania to its north; and Delaware and the Atlantic Ocean to ...
, argued that the fundamental underlying concepts of the LTG scenarios were faulty because the very idea of what constitutes a "resource" varies over time. For instance, wood was the primary shipbuilding resource until the 1800s, and there were concerns about prospective wood shortages from the 1500s on. But then boats began to be made of iron, later steel, and the shortage issue disappeared. Simon argued in his book ''
The Ultimate Resource
''The Ultimate Resource'' is a 1981 book written by Julian Lincoln Simon challenging the notion that humanity was running out of natural resources. It was revised in 1996 as ''The Ultimate Resource 2''.
Overview
The overarching thesis on why ther ...
'' that human ingenuity creates new resources as required from the raw materials of the universe. For instance, copper will never "run out". History demonstrates that as it becomes scarcer its price will rise and more will be found, more will be recycled, new techniques will use less of it, and at some point a better substitute will be found for it altogether.
His book was revised and reissued in 1996 as ''The Ultimate Resource 2''.
To the US Congress in 1973,
Allen V. Kneese and Ronald Riker of
Resources for the Future
Resources for the Future (RFF) is an American nonprofit organization, founded in 1952 that conducts independent research into environmental, energy, and natural resource issues, primarily via economics and other social sciences. Headquartered in ...
(RFF) testified that in their view, "The authors load their case by letting some things grow exponentially and others not. Population, capital and pollution grow exponentially in all models, but technologies for expanding resources and controlling pollution are permitted to grow, if at all, only in discrete increments." However, their testimony also noted the possibility of "relatively firm long-term limits" associated with
carbon dioxide emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities strengthen the greenhouse effect, contributing to climate change. Most is carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas. The largest emitters include coal in China and lar ...
, that humanity might "loose upon itself, or the ecosystem services on which it depends, a disastrously virulent substance", and (implying that population growth in "developing countries" is problematic) that "we don't know what to do about it".
In 1997, the Italian economist Giorgio Nebbia observed that the negative reaction to the ''LTG'' study came from at least four sources: those who saw the book as a threat to their business or industry; professional economists, who saw ''LTG'' as an
uncredentialed encroachment on their professional
perquisites
Employee benefits and (especially in British English) benefits in kind (also called fringe benefits, perquisites, or perks) include various types of non-wage compensation provided to employees in addition to their normal wages or salaries. Inst ...
; the Catholic church, which bridled at the suggestion that overpopulation was one of mankind's major problems; finally, the political left, which saw the ''LTG'' study as a scam by the elites designed to trick workers into believing that a proletarian paradise was a
pipe dream
Pipe dream may refer to:
Music
* ''Pipe Dream'' (John Williamson album), 1997, or the titular song
* ''Pipedream'' (Alan Hull album), 1973
* ''Pipe Dreams'' (Murray Head album), 1995
* "Pipe Dreams" (Nelly Furtado song), 2016
* ''Pipe Dream ...
.
Positive reviews
In a 2008 blog post,
Ugo Bardi
Ugo Bardi (born May 23, 1952, in Florence, Italy) is a professor of physical chemistry at the University of Florence.
Career
Bardi is a researcher on materials for new energy sources, a contributor to the now-defunct website, "The Oil Drum". He i ...
commented that "Although, by the 1990s ''LTG'' had become everyone's laughing stock, among some the ''LTG'' ideas are becoming again popular".
Reading ''LTG'' for the first time in 2000,
Matthew Simmons
Matthew Roy Simmons (April 7, 1943 – August 8, 2010) was founder and chairman emeritus of Simmons & Company International, and was a prominent figure in the field of peak oil. Simmons was motivated by the 1973 energy crisis to create an invest ...
concluded his views on the report by saying, "In hindsight, The
Club of Rome
The Club of Rome is a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing global issues. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, Italy. It consists ...
turned out to be right. We simply wasted 30 important years ignoring this work."
Research from the University of Melbourne has found the book's forecasts are accurate, 40 years on.
In 2008 Graham Turner of
CSIRO
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is an Australian Government
The Australian Government, also known as the Commonwealth Government, is the national government of Australia, a federal parliamentar ...
found that the observed historical data from 1970 to 2000 closely match the simulated results of the "standard run" limits of growth model for almost all the outputs reported. "The comparison is well within uncertainty bounds of nearly all the data in terms of both magnitude and the trends over time." Turner also examined a number of reports, particularly by economists, which over the years have purported to discredit the limits-to-growth model. Turner says these reports are flawed, and reflect misunderstandings about the model.
Turner reprised these observations in another opinion piece in ''The Guardian'' in 2014. Turner used data from the UN to claim that the graphs almost exactly matched the 'Standard Run' from 1972 (i.e. the worst-case scenario, assuming that a 'business as usual' attitude was adopted, and there were no modifications of human behaviour in response to the warnings in the report). Birth rates and death rates were both slightly lower than projected, but these two effects cancelled each other out, leaving the growth in world population almost exactly as forecast.
In 2010, Nørgård, Peet and Ragnarsdóttir called the book a "pioneering report", and said that it "has withstood the test of time and, indeed, has only become more relevant."
The journalist
Christian Parenti
Christian Parenti is an American investigative journalist, academic, and author.
Early life and education
Parenti is the son of Michael Parenti and Susan Parenti. He attended Buxton School in Williamstown, Massachusetts, The New School for S ...
, writing in 2012, sees parallels between the reception of ''LTG'' and the contemporary
global warming controversy, and went on to comment, "That said, ''The Limits to Growth'' was a scientifically rigorous and credible warning that was actively rejected by the intellectual watchdogs of powerful economic interests. A similar story is playing out now around climate science."
In 2012,
John Scales Avery John Scales Avery (born in 1933) is a theoretical chemist noted for his research publications in quantum chemistry, thermodynamics, evolution, and history of science. Since the early 1990s, Avery has been an active world peace activist. During th ...
, a member of the Nobel Prize (1995) winning group associated with the
Pugwash Conferences
The Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs is an international organization that brings together scholars and public figures to work toward reducing the danger of armed conflict and to seek solutions to global security threats. It was fo ...
on Science and World Affairs, supported the basic thesis of ''LTG'' by stating, "Although the specific predictions of resource availability in ''
heLimits to Growth'' lacked accuracy, its basic thesis – that unlimited economic growth on a finite planet is impossible – was indisputably correct."
Legacy
Updates and symposia
The
Club of Rome
The Club of Rome is a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing global issues. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, Italy. It consists ...
has persisted after ''The Limits of Growth'' and has generally provided comprehensive updates to the book every five years.
An independent retrospective on the public debate over ''The Limits to Growth'' concluded in 1978 that optimistic attitudes had won out, causing a general loss of momentum in the environmental movement. While summarizing a large number of opposing arguments, the article concluded that "scientific arguments for and against each position ... have, it would seem, played only a small part in the general acceptance of alternative perspectives."
In 1989, a symposium was held in
Hanover
Hanover (; german: Hannover ; nds, Hannober) is the capital and largest city of the German state of Lower Saxony. Its 535,932 (2021) inhabitants make it the 13th-largest city in Germany as well as the fourth-largest city in Northern Germany ...
, entitled "Beyond the Limits to Growth: Global Industrial Society, Vision or Nightmare?" and in 1992, ''
Beyond the Limits
''Beyond the Limits'' is a 1992 book continuing the modeling of the consequences of a rapidly growing global population that was started in the 1972 report ''Limits to Growth''. Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jørgen Randers are the authors ...
'' (BTL) was published as a 20-year update on the original material. It "concluded that two decades of history mainly supported the conclusions we had advanced 20 years earlier. But the 1992 book did offer one major new finding. We suggested in BTL that humanity had already overshot the limits of Earth's support capacity."
''Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update'' was published in 2004. The authors observed that "It is a sad fact that humanity has largely squandered the past 30 years in futile debates and well-intentioned, but halfhearted, responses to the global ecological challenge. We do not have another 30 years to dither. Much will have to change if the ongoing overshoot is not to be followed by collapse during the twenty-first century."
In 2012, the
Smithsonian Institution
The Smithsonian Institution ( ), or simply the Smithsonian, is a group of museums and education and research centers, the largest such complex in the world, created by the U.S. government "for the increase and diffusion of knowledge". Founded ...
held a symposium entitled "Perspectives on ''Limits to Growth''".
Another symposium was held in the same year by the
Volkswagen Foundation
The Volkswagen Foundation (German: ''VolkswagenStiftung'') is the largest German private nonprofit organization involved in the promotion and support of academic research. It is not affiliated to the present company, the Volkswagen Group.
It wa ...
, entitled "Already Beyond?"
''Limits to Growth'' did not receive an official update in 2012, but one of its coauthors,
Jørgen Randers
Jørgen Randers (born 22 May 1945) is a Norwegian academic, professor emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and practitioner in the field of future studies. , published a book, ''
2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years''.
Validation
In 2008, physicist Graham Turner at the
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) is an Australian Government agency responsible for scientific research.
CSIRO works with leading organisations around the world. From its headquarters in Canberra, CSIRO ...
(CSIRO) in Australia published a paper called "A Comparison of 'The Limits to Growth' with Thirty Years of Reality".
It compared the past thirty years of data with the scenarios laid out in the 1972 book and found that changes in industrial production, food production, and pollution are all congruent with one of the book's three scenarios—that of "business as usual". This scenario in ''Limits'' points to
economic
An economy is an area of the Production (economics), production, Distribution (economics), distribution and trade, as well as Consumption (economics), consumption of Goods (economics), goods and Service (economics), services. In general, it is ...
and
societal collapse
Societal collapse (also known as civilizational collapse) is the fall of a complex human society characterized by the loss of cultural identity and of socioeconomic complexity, the downfall of government, and the rise of violence. Possible causes ...
in the 21st century. In 2010, Nørgård, Peet, and Ragnarsdóttir called the book a "pioneering report". They said that, "its approach remains useful and that its conclusions are still surprisingly valid ... unfortunately the report has been largely dismissed by critics as a doomsday prophecy that has not held up to scrutiny."
Also in 2008, researcher Peter A. Victor wrote that even though the ''Limits'' team probably underestimated
price mechanism
In economics, a price mechanism is the manner in which the profits of goods or services affects the supply and demand of goods and services, principally by the price elasticity of demand. A price mechanism affects both buyer and seller who nego ...
's role in adjusting outcomes, their critics have overestimated it. He states that ''Limits to Growth'' has had a significant impact on the conception of environmental issues and notes that (in his view) the models in the book were meant to be taken as predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word".
In a 2009 article published in ''
American Scientist
__NOTOC__
''American Scientist'' (informally abbreviated ''AmSci'') is an American bimonthly science and technology magazine published since 1913 by Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society. In the beginning of 2000s the headquarters was in New ...
'' entitled ''Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil,'' Hall and Day noted that "the values predicted by the limits-to-growth model and actual data for 2008 are very close."
These findings are consistent with the 2008 CSIRO study which concluded: "The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compares favorably with key features ...
f the ''Limits to Growth''"standard run" scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway through the 21st Century."
In 2011,
Ugo Bardi
Ugo Bardi (born May 23, 1952, in Florence, Italy) is a professor of physical chemistry at the University of Florence.
Career
Bardi is a researcher on materials for new energy sources, a contributor to the now-defunct website, "The Oil Drum". He i ...
published a book-length academic study of ''The Limits to Growth'', its methods, and historical reception and concluded that "The warnings that we received in 1972 ... are becoming increasingly more worrisome as reality seems to be following closely the curves that the ... scenario had generated."
A popular analysis of the accuracy of the report by science writer
Richard Heinberg
Richard William Heinberg is an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on energy, economic, and ecological issues, including oil depletion. He is the author of 14 books, and presently serves as the senior fellow at the Post C ...
was also published.
In 2012, writing in ''
American Scientist
__NOTOC__
''American Scientist'' (informally abbreviated ''AmSci'') is an American bimonthly science and technology magazine published since 1913 by Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society. In the beginning of 2000s the headquarters was in New ...
'', Brian Hayes stated that the model is "more a polemical tool than a scientific instrument". He went on to say that the graphs generated by the computer program should not, as the authors note, be used as predictions.
In 2014, Turner concluded that "preparing for a collapsing global system could be even more important than trying to avoid collapse."
In 2015, a calibration of the updated World3-03 model using historical data from 1995 to 2012 to better understand the dynamics of today's economic and resource system was undertaken. The results showed that human society has invested more to abate persistent pollution, increase food productivity and have a more productive service sector however the broad trends within ''Limits to Growth'' still held true.
In 2016, a report published by the UK Parliament's 'All-Party Parliamentary Group on Limits to Growth' concluded that "there is unsettling evidence that society is still following the 'standard run' of the original study – in which overshoot leads to an eventual collapse of production and living standards". The report also points out that some issues not fully addressed in the original 1972 report, such as
climate change
In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to E ...
, present additional challenges for human development.
In 2020, an analysis by
Gaya Herrington
Gaya Herrington (née Branderhorst; born 1981) is a Dutch econometrician, sustainability researcher, and women's rights activist. Herrington is best known for being the founder of the project and foundation ''Stop Straatintimidatie'', an initiati ...
, then Director of Sustainability Services of
KPMG US, was published in
Yale University
Yale University is a private research university in New Haven, Connecticut. Established in 1701 as the Collegiate School, it is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and among the most prestigious in the wo ...
's ''
Journal of Industrial Ecology
The ''Journal of Industrial Ecology'' is a bimonthly peer-reviewed academic journal covering industrial ecology. It is published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of the Yale School of the Environment and is an official journal of the International So ...
''.
[, published online 03 Nov 2020] The study assessed whether, given key data known in 2020 about factors important for the "Limits to Growth" report, the original report's conclusions are supported. In particular, the 2020 study examined updated quantitative information about ten factors, namely population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare, and ecological footprint, and concluded that the "Limits to Growth" prediction is essentially correct in that continued economic growth is unsustainable under a "business as usual" model.
The study found that current empirical data is broadly consistent with the 1972 projections and that if major changes to the consumption of resources are not undertaken, economic growth will peak and then rapidly decline by around 2040.
[ Study also availabl]
here
/ref>
Related books
Books about humanity's uncertain future have appeared regularly over the years. A few of them, including the books mentioned above for reference, include:[Alan Atkisson (201]
"Believing Cassandra: How to be an Optimist in a Pessimist's World"
Earthscan, pp. 17–18.
* ''An Essay on the Principle of Population
An, AN, aN, or an may refer to:
Businesses and organizations
* Airlinair (IATA airline code AN)
* Alleanza Nazionale, a former political party in Italy
* AnimeNEXT, an annual anime convention located in New Jersey
* Anime North, a Canadian an ...
'' by Thomas Malthus
Thomas Robert Malthus (; 13/14 February 1766 – 29 December 1834) was an English cleric, scholar and influential economist in the fields of political economy and demography.
In his 1798 book '' An Essay on the Principle of Population'', Mal ...
(1798);
* ''Road to Survival
''Road to Survival'' is a 1948 book by William Vogt. It was a major inspiration for a certain strand of modern environmentalism as well as for the revival of Malthusianism - the so-called neo-Malthusianism - in the post-war era.
Summary
''Roa ...
'' by William Vogt
William Vogt (15 May 1902 – 11 July 1968) was an American ecologist and ornithologist, with a strong interest in both the carrying capacity and population control. He was the author of best-seller ''Road to Survival'' (1948), National Direc ...
(1948);
* '' The Challenge of Man's Future'' by Harrison Brown
Harrison Scott Brown (September 26, 1917 – December 8, 1986) was an American nuclear chemist and geochemist. He was a political activist, who lectured and wrote on the issues of arms limitation, natural resources and world hunger.
During Worl ...
(1956);
* '' Mirage of Health'' by Rene Dubos (1959);
* '' The Hungry Planet'' by Georg Bostrom (1965);
* ''The Population Bomb
''The Population Bomb'' is a 1968 book co-authored by Stanford University Professor emeritus Paul R. Ehrlich and Stanford senior researcher emeritus in conservation biology Anne Howland Ehrlich. It predicted worldwide famine due to overpopulatio ...
'' by Paul R. Ehrlich
Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born May 29, 1932) is an American biologist known for his warnings about the consequences of population growth and limited resources. He is the Bing Professor Emeritus of Population Studies of the Department of Biology of St ...
(1968);
* ''The Limits to Growth'' (1972);
* ''Overshoot'' by William R. Catton (1980);
* '' State of the World'' reports issued by the Worldwatch Institute
The Worldwatch Institute was a globally focused environmental research organization based in Washington, D.C., founded by Lester R. Brown. Worldwatch was named as one of the top ten sustainable development research organizations by Globescan Surv ...
(produced annually since 1984);
* ''Our Common Future
__NOTOC__
''Our Common Future'', also known as the Brundtland Report, was published on October 1987 by the United Nations through the Oxford University Press. This publication was in recognition of Gro Harlem Brundtland's, former Norwegian Prime M ...
'', published by the UN's World Commission on Environment and Development
The Brundtland Commission, formerly the World Commission on Environment and Development, was a sub-organization of the United Nations (UN) that aimed to unite countries in pursuit of sustainable development. It was founded in 1983 when Javier Pér ...
(1987);
* ''Earth in the Balance
''Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit'' (, paperback ) is a 1992 book written by Al Gore, published in June 1992, shortly before he was elected Vice President in the 1992 presidential election. Known by the short title ''Earth i ...
'', written by then-US senator Al Gore
Albert Arnold Gore Jr. (born March 31, 1948) is an American politician, businessman, and environmentalist who served as the 45th vice president of the United States from 1993 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton. Gore was the Democratic Part ...
(1992);
* '' Earth Odyssey'' by journalist Mark Hertsgaard
Mark Hertsgaard (born 1956) is an American journalist and the co-founder and executive director of Covering Climate Now. He is the environment correspondent for ''The Nation'', and the author of seven non-fiction books, including ''Earth Odyssey ...
(1999);[
* ''The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update'' (2004);
* '']The Long Emergency
''The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-first Century'' is a book by James Howard Kunstler (Grove/Atlantic Inc., Grove/Atlantic, 2005) exploring the consequences of a world peak oil, oil production peak, coincidi ...
'' by James Howard Kunstler
James Howard Kunstler (born October 19, 1948) is an American author, social critic, public speaker, and blogger. He is best known for his books ''The Geography of Nowhere'' (1994), a history of American suburbia and urban development, ''The Long ...
(2005);
* '' Storms of My Grandchildren'' by James Hansen
James Edward Hansen (born March 29, 1942) is an American adjunct professor directing the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is best known for his research in climatology, his 1 ...
, (2009);
* ''The Limits to Growth Revisited'' by Ugo Bardi, Springer Briefs in Energy, (2011);
* '' 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years'' by Jørgen Randers (2012);
* ''10 Billion'' by Stephen Emmott (2013);
* ''The Bet'' by Paul Sabin, Yale University Press (2014);
* '' The Sixth Extinction'' by Elizabeth Kolbert
Elizabeth Kolbert (born 1961) is an American journalist, author, and visiting fellow at Williams College. She is best known for her Pulitzer Prize-winning book '' The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History'', and as an observer and commentator o ...
(2014);
* ''The Uninhabitable Earth
"The Uninhabitable Earth" is an article by American journalist David Wallace-Wells published in the July 10, 2017 issue of ''New York'' magazine. The long-form article depicts a worst-case scenario of what might happen in the near-future due to ...
'' by David Wallace-Wells (2017);
* ''Limits and Beyond'' edited by Ugo Bardi
Ugo Bardi (born May 23, 1952, in Florence, Italy) is a professor of physical chemistry at the University of Florence.
Career
Bardi is a researcher on materials for new energy sources, a contributor to the now-defunct website, "The Oil Drum". He i ...
and Carlos Alvarez Pereira, Exapt Press, (2022).
* '' Earth for All – A Survival Guide for Humanity (2022).[ (208 pages)]
Editions
* , 1972 first edition
digital version)
* , 1974 second edition (cloth)
* , 1974 second edition (paperback)
*
*
*
See also
*
* , author of ''Arithmetic, Population, and Energy''
*
*
* Twelve leverage points
The twelve leverage points to intervene in a system were proposed by Donella Meadows, a scientist and system analyst who studied environmental limits to economic growth.
History
The leverage points, first published in 1997, were inspired by M ...
(to intervene in a system if it is to be managed)model proposed by Donella Meadows,
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
* , proponent of the ''Latin American World Model''
*
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Notes
References
External links
''The Limits to Growth'' 1972 edition
licensed
under a Creative Commons
Creative Commons (CC) is an American non-profit organization and international network devoted to educational access and expanding the range of creative works available for others to build upon legally and to share. The organization has release ...
Attribution Noncommercial license
*
''Peak Oil model that correctly tracked the oil output''
Scientific Study: Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply: Validation; from John L Hallock Jr
{{DEFAULTSORT:Limits To Growth
1972 non-fiction books
1972 in the environment
2004 non-fiction books
Demographic economic problems
Ecological economics
Books critical of economic growth
Environmental non-fiction books
Futurology books
Peak oil books
Sustainability books
Systems theory books
Demography books