"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of
statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a s ...
to bolster weak
argument
An argument is a series of sentences, statements, or propositions some of which are called premises and one is the conclusion. The purpose of an argument is to give reasons for one's conclusion via justification, explanation, and/or persu ...
s, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of
applied statistics
Statistics (from German: ', "description of a state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or socia ...
. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.
The phrase was popularized in the United States by
Mark Twain
Samuel Langhorne Clemens (November 30, 1835 – April 21, 1910), known by the pen name Mark Twain, was an American writer, humorist, and essayist. He was praised as the "greatest humorist the United States has produced," with William Fau ...
(among others), who attributed it to the British prime minister
Benjamin Disraeli
Benjamin Disraeli, 1st Earl of Beaconsfield (21 December 1804 – 19 April 1881) was a British statesman, Conservative Party (UK), Conservative politician and writer who twice served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He played a ...
. However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Several other people have been listed as originators of the quote, and it is often attributed to Twain himself.
North American Review
The ''North American Review'' (''NAR'') was the first literary magazine in the United States. It was founded in Boston in 1815 by journalist Nathan Hale (journalist), Nathan Hale and others. It was published continuously until 1940, after which i ...
'' in 1907. "Figures often beguile me," Twain wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
Alternative attributions include, among many others (for example
Walter Bagehot
Walter Bagehot ( ; 3 February 1826 – 24 March 1877) was an English journalist, businessman, and essayist, who wrote extensively about government, economics, literature and race. He is known for co-founding the ''National Review'' in 1855 ...
radical
Radical (from Latin: ', root) may refer to:
Politics and ideology Politics
*Classical radicalism, the Radical Movement that began in late 18th century Britain and spread to continental Europe and Latin America in the 19th century
*Radical politics ...
Royal Statistical Society
The Royal Statistical Society (RSS) is an established statistical society. It has three main roles: a British learned society for statistics, a professional body for statisticians and a charity which promotes statistics for the public good.
...
. Courtney is quoted by as attributing the phrase to a "wise statesman", but he may have been referring to a future statesman rather than a past one. The phrase has also been attributed to
Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington
Field marshal (United Kingdom), Field Marshal Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington (; 1 May 1769 – 14 September 1852) was a British Army officer and statesman who was one of the leading military and political figures in Britain during t ...
.
The phrase is quoted frequently in 1895, but here is a 1894 example: "His less enthusiastic neighbor thinks of the proverbial kinds of falsehoods, “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” and replies: “Reports of large numbers of cases subjected to operation seldom fail to beget a suspicion of unjustifiable risk.”"
A Dictionary of English Folklore claims that the earliest instance resembling the phrase found in print is a letter written in the British newspaper '' National Observer'' on June 8, 1891, published June 13, 1891, p. 93(–94):
NATIONAL PENSIONS
o the Editor of The National ObserverLondon, 8 June 1891
"Sir, —It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of
falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most
aggravated is statistics. It is on statistics and on the absence of statistics
that the advocate of national pensions relies ..." Later, in October 1891, as a query in ''
Notes and Queries
''Notes and Queries'', also styled ''Notes & Queries'', is a long-running quarterly scholarly journal that publishes short articles related to " English language and literature, lexicography, history, and scholarly antiquarianism".From the inner ...
'', the
pseudonym
A pseudonym (; ) or alias () is a fictitious name that a person assumes for a particular purpose, which differs from their original or true meaning ( orthonym). This also differs from a new name that entirely or legally replaces an individual's o ...
ous questioner, signing as "St Swithin", asked for the originator of the phrase, indicating common usage even at that date. The pseudonym has been attributed to Eliza Gutch.
Jacqueline Simpson
Jacqueline Simpson (born 1930) is a prolific, award-winning British researcher and author on folklore.Steve Roud (Editor) (2003). ''A Dictionary of English Folklore''.
Oxford University Press
Oxford University Press (OUP) is the publishing house of the University of Oxford. It is the largest university press in the world. Its first book was printed in Oxford in 1478, with the Press officially granted the legal right to print books ...
The
American Dialect Society
The American Dialect Society (ADS), founded in 1889, is a learned society "dedicated to the study of the English language in North America, and of other languages, or dialects of other languages, influencing it or influenced by it." The Society p ...
list archives include numerous posts by Stephen Goranson that cite research into uses soon after the above.
They include:
* Sir Charles Wentworth Dilke (1843–1911) is reported twice in October 1891 to have used the phrase, without attributing it to others:
: "Sir Charles Dilke 843–1911was saying the other day that false statements might be arranged according to their degree under three heads, fibs, lies, and statistics." ''The Bristol Mercury and Daily Post'', Monday, October 19, 1891
:The Derby Mercury (Derby, England), October 21, 1891; Issue 9223 "Sir Charles Dilke and the Bishops" "A mass meeting of the slate quarry-men of Festiniogfestiniog, Waleswas held Wednesday night ct. 14to protest against certain dismissals from one of the quarries ...." He ilkeobserved that the speeches of the Bishops on the disestablishment question reminded him that there were three degrees of untruth—a fib, a lie, and statistics (Laughter)"
* The phrase, as noted by Robert Giffen in 1892, was a variation on a phrase about three types of unreliable witnesses, a liar, a damned liar, and an expert from ''
The Economic Journal
''The Economic Journal'' is a peer-reviewed academic journal of economics published on behalf of the Royal Economic Society by Oxford University Press. The journal was established in 1891 and publishes papers from all areas of economics.The edito ...
'' the paper was previously read at a meeting of the Australasian Association for the Advancement of Science at Hobart in January 1892. Robert Giffen (1837–1910, Walter Bagehot's assistant editor at ''
The Economist
''The Economist'' is a British newspaper published weekly in printed magazine format and daily on Electronic publishing, digital platforms. It publishes stories on topics that include economics, business, geopolitics, technology and culture. M ...
'' 1868 ff.; 1882–4 President of the Statistical Society): "An old jest runs to the effect that there are three degrees of comparison among liars. There are liars, there are outrageous liars, and there are scientific experts. This has lately been adapted to throw dirt upon statistics. There are three degrees of comparison, it is said, in lying. There are lies, there are outrageous lies, and there are statistics."
* That phrase can be found in ''Nature'', page 74 November 26, 1885: "A well-known lawyer, now a judge, once grouped witnesses into three classes: simple liars, damned liars, and experts. He did not mean that the expert uttered things which he knew to be untrue, but that by the emphasis which he laid on certain statements, and by what has been defined as a highly cultivated faculty of evasion, the effect was actually worse than if he had."
* A minute of the
X Club
The X Club was a dining club of nine men who supported the theories of natural selection and academic liberalism in late 19th-century England. Thomas Henry Huxley was the initiator; he called the first meeting for 3 November 1864. The club m ...
meeting held on 5 December 1885, recorded by
Thomas Henry Huxley
Thomas Henry Huxley (4 May 1825 – 29 June 1895) was an English biologist and anthropologist who specialized in comparative anatomy. He has become known as "Darwin's Bulldog" for his advocacy of Charles Darwin's theory of evolution.
The stor ...
, noted "Talked politics, scandal, and the three classes of witnesses—liars, d—d liars, and experts." Quoted in 1900 in Leonard Huxley's ''The Life and Letters of Thomas Henry Huxley''.Colin White traces the origins to
François Magendie
__NOTOC__
François Magendie (6 October 1783 – 7 October 1855) was a French physiologist, considered a pioneer of experimental physiology. He is known for describing the foramen of Magendie. There is also a ''Magendie sign'', a downward ...
(1783–1855). According to White, while arguing against using blood-letting to treat
fever
Fever or pyrexia in humans is a symptom of an anti-infection defense mechanism that appears with Human body temperature, body temperature exceeding the normal range caused by an increase in the body's temperature Human body temperature#Fever, s ...
and confronted with statistical numbers he believed to be manufactured, this French physiologist stated: "Thus the alteration of the truth which is already manifesting itself in the progressive form of lying and perjury, offers us, in the
superlative
The degrees of comparison of adjectives and adverbs are the various forms taken by adjectives and adverbs when used to compare two entities (comparative degree), three or more entities (superlative degree), or when not comparing entities (positi ...
, the statistics." In White's opinion, the world had a need of this phrase, many people "would have been proud" to coin it, and the origins are now obscured, as the phrase passed "from wit to wit". White is referring to the work of Paul Delaunay, however, Delaunay's text, while using the phrase, does not explicitly attribute it to Magendie. John Bibby and David R. Bellhouse also mention Magendie's authorship.
Uses
The phrase has been used in the title of a number of popular expositions, including:
*''Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: The Manipulation of Public Opinion in America'', by Michael Wheeler ( W. W. Norton & Co. 1976;
Dell
Dell Inc. is an American technology company that develops, sells, repairs, and supports personal computers (PCs), Server (computing), servers, data storage devices, network switches, software, computer peripherals including printers and webcam ...
paperback 1978).
*''Quotes, Damned Quotes ..... some of them to do with statistics'' (1985), by John Bibby – an attempt to untangle the history of this quotation.
*''Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists'' (2001), by
University of Delaware
The University of Delaware (colloquially known as UD, UDel, or Delaware) is a Statutory college#Delaware, privately governed, state-assisted Land-grant university, land-grant research university in Newark, Delaware, United States. UD offers f ...
sociologist Joel Best ().
*''Lies, Damned Lies, and Drug War Statistics: A Critical Analysis of Claims Made by the Office of National Drug Control Policy'' (2014), by Matthew B. Robinson & Renee G. Scherlen
SUNY Press
The State University of New York Press (more commonly referred to as the SUNY Press) is a university press affiliated with the State University of New York system. The press, which was founded in 1966, is located in Albany, New York and publishe ...
;
The essay ''The Median Isn't the Message'' by
Stephen Jay Gould
Stephen Jay Gould ( ; September 10, 1941 – May 20, 2002) was an American Paleontology, paleontologist, Evolutionary biology, evolutionary biologist, and History of science, historian of science. He was one of the most influential and widely re ...
begins by repeating this quote. Gould explains how the statistic that
peritoneal mesothelioma
Peritoneal mesothelioma is the name given to the cancer that attacks the lining of the abdomen. This type of cancer affects the lining that protects the contents of the abdomen and provides a lubricating fluid to enable the organs to move and work ...
, the form of cancer with which he was diagnosed in 1982, has a "median survival time of eight months" is misleading.
"Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics" is the title of episode 21 in the first season of NBC drama ''
The West Wing
''The West Wing'' is an American political drama television series created by Aaron Sorkin that was originally broadcast on NBC from September 22, 1999, to May 14, 2006. The series is set primarily in the West Wing of the White House, where t ...