Larry Joseph Sabato (; born August 7, 1952) is an American
political scientist
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
and
political analyst
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
. He is the
Robert Kent Gooch
Robert Kent Gooch (September 26, 1893 – May 22, 1982) was an American football player and track athlete. Gooch was a quarterback for the Virginia Cavaliers football team of the University of Virginia. He was named a Rhodes Scholar, but the ...
Professor of Politics at the
University of Virginia
The University of Virginia (UVA) is a public research university in Charlottesville, Virginia. Founded in 1819 by Thomas Jefferson, the university is ranked among the top academic institutions in the United States, with highly selective ad ...
, where he is also the founder and director of the
Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of ''
Sabato's Crystal Ball'', an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections.
He is well known in American political media as a popular
pundit, and is interviewed frequently by a variety of sources.
Early life and education
Sabato grew up in
Norfolk, Virginia, graduating from
Norfolk Catholic High School in 1970. Four years later, he graduated from the
University of Virginia
The University of Virginia (UVA) is a public research university in Charlottesville, Virginia. Founded in 1819 by Thomas Jefferson, the university is ranked among the top academic institutions in the United States, with highly selective ad ...
. A 1974 ''
Cavalier Daily
''The Cavalier Daily'' is an independent, student-run daily news organization at the University of Virginia. Founded in 1890, under the name ''College Topics'', ''The Cavalier Daily'' is Virginia's oldest collegiate daily and the oldest daily new ...
'' poll showed more people could identify Sabato as
student government president than could name
Edgar F. Shannon, Jr.
Edgar Finley Shannon Jr. (June 4, 1918 – August 24, 1997) was a professor of English and president of the University of Virginia from 1959 to 1974.Obituary, New York Times.
Biography
Shannon attended Washington and Lee University as an und ...
as University president.
Sabato graduated
Phi Beta Kappa
The Phi Beta Kappa Society () is the oldest academic honor society in the United States, and the most prestigious, due in part to its long history and academic selectivity. Phi Beta Kappa aims to promote and advocate excellence in the liberal ...
as a Government major. He followed his undergraduate degree with graduate study at
Princeton University
Princeton University is a private research university in Princeton, New Jersey. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the fourth-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and one of the ...
's
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
The Princeton School of Public and International Affairs (formerly the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs) is a professional public policy school at Princeton University. The school provides an array of comprehensive course ...
for one year. He was awarded a
Rhodes Scholarship in 1975, which brought him to study at
Queen's College, Oxford
The Queen's College is a constituent college of the University of Oxford, England. The college was founded in 1341 by Robert de Eglesfield in honour of Philippa of Hainault. It is distinguished by its predominantly neoclassical architecture, ...
. In less than two years he earned his doctorate in politics from Oxford.
Prior to his time as a political analyst, Sabato worked for nine years with Virginia
Democratic Party Democratic Party most often refers to:
*Democratic Party (United States)
Democratic Party and similar terms may also refer to:
Active parties Africa
*Botswana Democratic Party
*Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea
*Gabonese Democratic Party
*Demo ...
politician
Henry Howell
Henry Evans Howell, Jr. (September 5, 1920 – July 7, 1997), nicknamed "Howlin' Henry" Howell, was an American lawyer and politician from the Commonwealth of Virginia. A progressive populist and a member of the Democratic Party, he served in ...
. At the age of 15, Sabato joined Howell's first campaign for the Virginia governorship in 1968, and then worked on his successful run for lieutenant governor in 1971, and his campaigns for governor in 1973 and 1977.
Sabato is of
Italian
Italian(s) may refer to:
* Anything of, from, or related to the people of Italy over the centuries
** Italians, an ethnic group or simply a citizen of the Italian Republic or Italian Kingdom
** Italian language, a Romance language
*** Regional Ita ...
heritage.
Professorship
Before becoming an academician at the University of Virginia, Sabato published works on the rise of
two-party politics in the
southern United States
The Southern United States (sometimes Dixie, also referred to as the Southern States, the American South, the Southland, or simply the South) is a geographic and cultural region of the United States of America. It is between the Atlantic Ocean ...
, most notably his 1977 publication of ''The Democratic Party Primary in Virginia: Tantamount to Election No Longer''.
In 1978, Sabato became a member of the faculty at the University of Virginia. Since then he has engaged in research and taught more than 14,000 students.
He is a University Professor and the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.
In 2005, Sabato made a $1 million contribution to UVA, the largest gift ever given by a faculty member.
Author
Sabato is the author of over twenty books on politics, including ''Feeding Frenzy: Attack Journalism and American Politics'' and ''The Rise of Political Consultants: New Ways of Winning Elections.'' He is the co-author of ''Dirty Little Secrets: The Persistence of Corruption in American Politics'' with
Glenn R. Simpson.
In January 2011, he published ''Pendulum Swing'', which analyzed the 2010 midterm elections and the potential effect of
Republican Party victories on the 2012 presidential, congressional, and state-level elections.
Prior to ''Pendulum Swing'', Sabato authored ''The Year of Obama'' in 2009 and ''
A More Perfect Constitution
''A More Perfect Constitution'' is a book published by American political scientist at the University of Virginia, Larry J. Sabato, in which he proposes a constitutional convention to substantially overhaul the United States Constitution. He poi ...
'' in 2007, which discussed his ideas for amending the
U.S. Constitution
The Constitution of the United States is the supreme law of the United States of America. It superseded the Articles of Confederation, the nation's first constitution, in 1789. Originally comprising seven articles, it delineates the nation ...
. Other Sabato books include ''The Sixth Year Itch: The Rise and Fall of the George W. Bush Presidency'', ''Divided States of America: The Slash and Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Election'', and ''Get in the Booth! A Citizen's Guide to the 2004 Election'', and writes for ''Sabato's Crystal Ball''. He has written textbooks used by high school and college
American government
The federal government of the United States (U.S. federal government or U.S. government) is the national government of the United States, a federal republic located primarily in North America, composed of 50 states, a city within a feder ...
classes, and has been a frequent guest analyst on cable news outlets and radio programs.
Investigation of Kennedy assassination
His book ''The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy.'' was published in 2013. It focuses on
John F. Kennedy
John Fitzgerald Kennedy (May 29, 1917 – November 22, 1963), often referred to by his initials JFK and the nickname Jack, was an American politician who served as the 35th president of the United States from 1961 until his assassination ...
's life, administration, and
assassination and contains research from focus groups, polling, and interviews with colleagues and eyewitnesses. After analyzing evidence regarding the assassination, Sabato discredited the 1979
United States House Select Committee on Assassinations
The United States House of Representatives Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) was established in 1976 to investigate the assassinations of John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King, Jr. in 1963 and 1968, respectively. The HSCA completed its ...
(HSCA) conclusion of a possible second shooter, stating that it was "blown out the water."
Sabato's Crystal Ball
''Sabato's Crystal Ball'' is run by the
University of Virginia Center for Politics
The University of Virginia Center for Politics (CfP) is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, that seeks to increase civic knowledge and involvement among all citizens. It was founded in 1998 by professor and political a ...
in Charlottesville. The site contains analysis of an array of political races in the United States, including presidential elections, Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests.
Predictions accuracy until 2016
Prior to the 2002 midterm elections, where the
Republican Party saw gains in both branches of Congress, Sabato's Crystal Ball website accurately predicted the outcome in 433 of the 435 contests for the
House of Representatives
House of Representatives is the name of legislative bodies in many countries and sub-national entitles. In many countries, the House of Representatives is the lower house of a bicameral legislature, with the corresponding upper house often c ...
and 32 of 34
Senate races.
In 2004, when Republicans retained the
White House
The White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. It is located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., and has been the residence of every U.S. president since John Adams in ...
and gained seats in the House and Senate, Crystal Ball correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races (99% accuracy), missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race and two states in the
Electoral College.
In August 2006, Crystal Ball predicted that the
Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, providing them with a majority in both chambers. Sabato's predictions proved correct: each of his 33 Senate predictions were accurate, and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by the Crystal Ball (Democrats went on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006 run-off in Texas' 23rd district).
In 2006 Sabato was named the most accurate source of election predictions by MSNBC, CNBC, and Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. In 2006, he was the only national analyst who correctly predicted the exact Democratic gains in Senate and House contests.
In July 2008, Crystal Ball correctly projected that
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Obama was the first African-American president of the ...
would win the presidency in a near-landslide.
Sabato predicted a 364–174 margin in the Electoral College, as well as the popular vote percentages.
The prediction was merely one point off the mark, with the actual result on November 4, 2008, being Obama 365 to McCain 173. It did not predict an Obama win in
Nebraska's 2nd district, as he did not make separate predictions for individual congressional districts in states that split their electoral votes on such factors (he started making separate predictions for such districts in 2012, probably because of this occurrence). Crystal Ball also accurately predicted 34 of all 35 Senate races, and 11 gubernatorial races correctly.
In November 2010, Crystal Ball projected that Republicans would pick up 55 seats in the House of Representatives. The Republicans picked up 63 House seats. It predicted a pickup of 8 seats in the Senate for Republicans. The Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats.
In 2012, Crystal Ball projected that Obama would win the presidency with 290 electoral votes to 248 for Romney; there would be no change in partisan makeup of the Senate, with Democrats at 53 and Republicans at 47; and Democrats would pick up 3 seats in the House of Representatives, for a result of 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats. The projection was similar to the
actual results, but Crystal Ball under-estimated Obama's number of
electoral votes (332) and under-estimated Democratic victories in both
the Senate
A senate is a deliberative assembly, often the upper house or chamber of a bicameral legislature. The name comes from the ancient Roman Senate (Latin: ''Senatus''), so-called as an assembly of the senior (Latin: ''senex'' meaning "the e ...
(Democrats picked up two seats) and in
the House (Democrats picked up eight seats).
Crystal Ball made widespread incorrect predictions in 2016, wrongly predicting the outcome of the presidential race, as well as the outcomes of the House and Senate races. The night before voting took place, Sabato appeared on MSBNC and stated that Hillary Clinton would win 322 and Trump would win 216 electoral college votes; in fact, Trump won 306 and Clinton won 232. Sabato and his staff summarized the results in an article entitled "Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa".
Earmark controversy
In June 2009, it was revealed that Sabato's
Center for Politics had been the recipient of over $7 million in earmarked money from Congressman
Virgil Goode
Virgil Hamlin Goode Jr. (born October 17, 1946) is an American politician who served as a member of the United States House of Representatives from 5th congressional district of Virginia between 1997 and 2009. He was initially a Democrat, but b ...
, whom Sabato predicted would win re-election in 2008, despite declining poll numbers; Goode ultimately lost the race by fewer than 800 votes out of about 316,000 votes cast.
Political blogger Greg Sargent suggested that Sabato should have revealed his Center's financial connection to Goode or recused himself from making predictions about the race.
Personal views
Criticism of Donald Trump
Sabato is a critic of former United States President
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
, stating he believed that Trump's presidency was the "worst" in U.S. history.
In July 2021, the
Republican Party of Virginia
The Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) is the Virginia chapter of the Republican Party. It is based at the Richard D. Obenshain Center in Richmond.
History
The party was established in 1854 by opponents of slavery and secession in the commonwe ...
made headlines for demanding Sabato be investigated by the University of Virginia for his anti-Trump tweets.
References
External links
*
*
{{DEFAULTSORT:Sabato, Larry
1952 births
Living people
20th-century American male writers
20th-century American non-fiction writers
21st-century American male writers
21st-century American non-fiction writers
Alumni of The Queen's College, Oxford
American Rhodes Scholars
American male non-fiction writers
American political scientists
American textbook writers
American writers of Italian descent
Princeton School of Public and International Affairs alumni
University of Virginia alumni
University of Virginia faculty
Writers from Norfolk, Virginia