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was a prominent
seismologist Seismology (; from Ancient Greek σεισμός (''seismós'') meaning "earthquake" and -λογία (''-logía'') meaning "study of") is the scientific study of earthquakes and the propagation of elastic waves through the Earth or through other ...
. He was regarded as Japan's foremost authority on
earthquake prediction Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of parameters for the ''next'' ...
Nuclear crisis in Japan as scientists reveal quake threat to power plants
The Times, published 2007-07-19, accessed 2011-03-18
and was a chair of the Japanese
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction The Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP) ( Japanese: 地震予知連絡会, ''Jishin Yochi Renraku-kai'') in Japan was founded in April 1969,
(CCEP).Quake shuts world's largest nuclear plant
Nature, vol 448, 392-393, , published 2007-07-25, accessed 2011-03-18 Mogi was also a director of the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute, was a professor at
Nihon University , abbreviated as , is a private research university in Japan. Its predecessor, Nihon Law School (currently the Department of Law), was founded by Yamada Akiyoshi, the Minister of Justice, in 1889. It is one of Japan's leading private universit ...
and was
professor emeritus ''Emeritus'' (; female: ''emerita'') is an adjective used to designate a retired chair, professor, pastor, bishop, pope, director, president, prime minister, rabbi, emperor, or other person who has been "permitted to retain as an honorary title ...
at Tokyo University.Two grave issues concerning the expected Tokai Earthquake
Kiyoo Mogi, ''Earth Planets Space'', Vol. 56 (No. 8), pp. li-lxvi, published 2004, accessed 2011-03-11
Due to the seismic activity in Japan, Mogi also took an interest in safety of
nuclear power in Japan Prior to the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, Japan had generated 30% of its electrical power from nuclear reactors and planned to increase that share to 40%. Nuclear power energy was a national strategic priority in Japan. , of the 54 nu ...
. In 1969 Mogi predicted that there was a possibility of a shallow magnitude 8.0
earthquake An earthquake (also known as a quake, tremor or temblor) is the shaking of the surface of the Earth resulting from a sudden release of energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, fr ...
in the
Tōkai region The is a subregion of the Chūbu region and Kansai region in Japan that runs along the Pacific Ocean. The name comes from the Tōkaidō, one of the Edo Five Routes. Because Tōkai is a sub-region and is not officially classified, there i ...
of Japan, an area that has experienced a number of previous large earthquakes. Following the passing of the Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasure Act, in 1978 Mogi was appointed to the newly created Earthquake Assessment Committee (EAC) for the expected Tokai earthquake, charged with warning the government if the quake was imminent. He went on to chair the ECA from 1991 until he resigned the post in 1996 after failing to persuade the government of the need to take uncertainty into account when issuing warnings.


Nuclear power

Following damage at the
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant The is a large, modern (housing the world's first advanced boiling water reactor or ABWR) nuclear power plant on a site.TEPCO Official Press Release (Japanese)First in Japan – Use of the Full Area for Power Plant Buildings, Reinforced Concret ...
due to the
2007 Chūetsu offshore earthquake The ) was a powerful magnitude 6.6 earthquake that occurred 10:13 local time (01:13 UTC) on July 16, 2007, in the northwest Niigata region of Japan. The earthquake, which occurred at a previously unknown offshore fault shook Niigata and ne ...
, Mogi called for the immediate closure of the
Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant The is a nuclear power plant in the city of Omaezaki in Shizuoka Prefecture, on Japan's east coast, 200 km south-west of Tokyo. It is managed by the Chubu Electric Power Company. There are five units contained at a single site with a net ...
, which was built close to the centre of the expected Tōkai earthquake despite his 1969 prediction. Previously, in 2004, he had stated that the issue 'is a critical problem which can bring a catastrophe to Japan through a man-made disaster'.


Mogi doughnut hypothesis

In 1969 Mogi proposed a
hypothesis A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous obse ...
for earthquake prediction, now known as the 'Mogi doughnut hypothesis', that major earthquakes tend to occur in an unusually seismically calm area surrounded by a ring of unusually high seismic activity. The Mogi doughnut is one of several pattern hypotheses that have been proposed.


Mogi model

In 1958 Mogi was responsible for a major advance in understanding the dynamics of
volcano A volcano is a rupture in the crust of a planetary-mass object, such as Earth, that allows hot lava, volcanic ash, and gases to escape from a magma chamber below the surface. On Earth, volcanoes are most often found where tectonic plates ...
s.''Earthquake and Volcano Deformation'', P Segall, Princeton University Press; ; published 2010 After studying data from several sources, he concluded that a mathematical solution developed by Yamakawa in 1955 could be used in the modelling of the deformation of a volcano caused by pressure changes in its
magma chamber A magma chamber is a large pool of liquid rock beneath the surface of the Earth. The molten rock, or magma, in such a chamber is less dense than the surrounding country rock, which produces buoyant forces on the magma that tend to drive it up ...
.Analytical volcano deformation source models
M Lisowski, D Dzurisin; ''Volcano Deformation''; publisher Springer Berlin Heidelberg; ; ; published 2006
The 'Mogi model' (also known as the 'Mogi-Yamakawa model'Calculations of Elliptical Pressure Source Models by FEM
T Sakai, T Yamamoto, K Fukui, K Fujiwara, A Takagi, accessed 2011-03-25
) subsequently became the first commonly used quantitative method in
volcanology Volcanology (also spelled vulcanology) is the study of volcanoes, lava, magma and related geological, geophysical and geochemical phenomena (volcanism). The term ''volcanology'' is derived from the Latin word '' vulcan''. Vulcan was the an ...
, and is still widely used today.


Bibliography

*''Experimental Rock Mechanics'' (2006) *''Earthquake Prediction'' (1985)


See also

*
Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant The is a nuclear power plant in the city of Omaezaki in Shizuoka Prefecture, on Japan's east coast, 200 km south-west of Tokyo. It is managed by the Chubu Electric Power Company. There are five units contained at a single site with a net ...
*
Fukushima I nuclear accidents The was a nuclear accident in 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Ōkuma, Fukushima, Japan. The proximate cause of the disaster was the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, which occurred on the afternoon of 11 March 2011 and ...
*
Katsuhiko Ishibashi is a professor in the ''Research Center for Urban Safety and Security'' in the ''Graduate School of Science'' at Kobe University, Japan and a seismologist who has written extensively in the areas of seismicity and seismotectonics in and around th ...
*
Nuclear power in Japan Prior to the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, Japan had generated 30% of its electrical power from nuclear reactors and planned to increase that share to 40%. Nuclear power energy was a national strategic priority in Japan. , of the 54 nu ...
* Geology of Japan *
Pacific Ring of Fire The Ring of Fire (also known as the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Rim of Fire, the Girdle of Fire or the Circum-Pacific belt) is a region around much of the rim of the Pacific Ocean where many volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur. The Ring ...


References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Mogi, Kiyoo People associated with nuclear power People from Yamagata Prefecture Japanese seismologists Japanese volcanologists 1929 births 2021 deaths