The Kuznets swing (or Kuznets cycle) is a claimed medium-range economic wave with a period of 15–25 years identified in 1930 by

Simon Kuznets Simon Smith Kuznets (; rus, Семён Абра́мович Кузне́ц, p=sʲɪˈmʲɵn ɐˈbraməvʲɪtɕ kʊzʲˈnʲɛts; April 30, 1901 – July 8, 1985) was an American economist and statistician who received the 1971 Nobel Memorial Pr ...

. Kuznets connected these waves with demographic processes, in particular with immigrant inflows/outflows and the changes in construction intensity that they caused, that is why he denoted them as "demographic" or "building" cycles/swings. Kuznets swings have been also interpreted as infrastructural

investment Investment is the dedication of money to purchase of an asset to attain an increase in value over a period of time. Investment requires a sacrifice of some present asset, such as time, money, or effort. In finance, the purpose of investing i ...

cycles. Some modern economic commentators argue the Kuznets swing reflects an 18-year cycle in land values. Fred Harrison argues this cycle of boom and bust could be smoothed or avoided altogether by levying an annual tax on the value of land (

land value tax A land value tax (LVT) is a levy on the value of land (economics), land without regard to buildings, personal property and other land improvement, improvements. It is also known as a location value tax, a point valuation tax, a site valuation ta ...

). Kuznets' analysis was criticized by Howrey (1968). Howrey claimed that the apparent business cycle found by Kuznets was an artifact of the

filter Filter, filtering or filters may refer to: Science and technology Computing * Filter (higher-order function), in functional programming * Filter (software), a computer program to process a data stream * Filter (video), a software component tha ...

Kuznets used. Howrey suggested that the same cyclical pattern could be found in

white noise In signal processing, white noise is a random signal having equal intensity at different frequencies, giving it a constant power spectral density. The term is used, with this or similar meanings, in many scientific and technical disciplines, ...

series when the Kuznets filter was applied. However, Kuznets claims swings can be found in the

world GDP The world economy or global economy is the economy of all humans of the world, referring to the global economic system, which includes all economic activities which are conducted both within and between nations, including production, consumption, ...

dynamics even without the application of the Kuznets filter. Korotayev, Andrey V., & Tsirel, Sergey V
A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis
''Structure and Dynamics''. 2010. Vol.4. #1. P.3-57.

References

{{instecon Business cycle theories