Kenneth Massey is an American sports
statistic
A statistic (singular) or sample statistic is any quantity computed from values in a sample which is considered for a statistical purpose. Statistical purposes include estimating a population parameter, describing a sample, or evaluating a hypo ...
ian known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the
Bowl Championship Series
The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) was a selection system that created four or five bowl game match-ups involving eight or ten of the top ranked teams in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) of American college football, including ...
since the 1999 season. He is an assistant professor of mathematics at
Carson–Newman University
Carson–Newman University is a private Baptist university in Jefferson City, Tennessee. Carson-Newman is affiliated with the Tennessee Baptist Convention (Southern Baptist Convention). Founded in 1851, the university enrolls about 2,500 studen ...
in Tennessee.
Methods
Massey, unlike the developers of other
sports rating system
A sports rating system is a system that analyzes the results of sports competitions to provide ratings for each team or player. Common systems include polls of expert voters, crowdsourcing non-expert voters, betting markets, and computer systems. R ...
s, gives quite a lot of information on how his system works, but omits enough details to prevent someone from copying the calculations in their entirety. The Massey ratings are designed to measure past performance, not necessarily to predict future outcomes. The first challenge for any computer rating system is to account for the variability in performance. A team will not always play up to its full potential. Other random factors (officiating, bounce of the ball) may also affect the outcome of a game. The model must somehow eliminate the "noise" which obscures the true strength of a team. The second goal is to account for the differences in schedule. When there is a large disparity in schedule strength, win–loss records lose their significance. The model must evaluate games involving mismatched opponents, as well as contests between well matched teams. It is necessary to achieve a reasonable balance between rewarding teams for wins, convincing wins, and playing a tough schedule. This issue is difficult to resolve, and rating systems exist that are based on each of the extremes. The overall team rating is a merit based quantity, and is the result of applying a
Bayesian
Thomas Bayes (/beɪz/; c. 1701 – 1761) was an English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister.
Bayesian () refers either to a range of concepts and approaches that relate to statistical methods based on Bayes' theorem, or a follower ...
win–loss correction to the power rating. Only the score, venue, and date of each game are used to calculate the Massey ratings. Stats such as rushing yards, rebounds, or field-goal percentage are not included. Nor are game conditions such as weather, crowd noise, day/night, or grass/
artificial turf
Artificial turf is a surface of synthetic fibers made to look like natural grass. It is most often used in arenas for sports that were originally or are normally played on grass. However, it is now being used on residential lawns and commer ...
. Overtime games are not treated any differently. Finally, neither injuries nor psychological factors like motivation are considered.
Justification
Massey's ratings are particularly relevant in the world of
American
American(s) may refer to:
* American, something of, from, or related to the United States of America, commonly known as the "United States" or "America"
** Americans, citizens and nationals of the United States of America
** American ancestry, pe ...
college
football
Football is a family of team sports that involve, to varying degrees, kicking a ball to score a goal. Unqualified, the word ''football'' normally means the form of football that is the most popular where the word is used. Sports commonly c ...
, where, with over 100 teams in
NCAA Division I
NCAA Division I (D-I) is the highest level of College athletics, intercollegiate athletics sanctioned by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) in the United States, which accepts players globally. D-I schools include the major ...
competition, there is no way a team can play against more than a small fraction of its competitors. Therefore, in determining the participants in championship games and tournaments, it is necessary to distinguish between teams that have compiled impressive win–loss records against strong competition and teams that have defeated weaker opponents.
Massey's analysis is a valuable tool for leagues that need to fairly seed playoff brackets, or schedule games that will encourage competitive play and good sportsmanship.
Sports rating systems are generally used by
gambler
Gambling (also known as betting or gaming) is the wagering of something of value ("the stakes") on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three eleme ...
s to forecast results, but Massey is not affiliated with this industry.
Massey's ratings came under some scrutiny, even from Massey himself in late 2008 for rating undefeated Utah ahead of then-consensus human poll #1 Alabama at the end of the season. In spite of the controversy, his ratings gained redemption after then-#6 Utah's 31–17 victory in the 2009 Sugar Bowl over then-#4 Alabama.
Background
Massey first got the idea to do sports ratings as an undergraduate at
Bluefield College
Bluefield University is a private Baptist university in Bluefield, Virginia. It offers 22 majors and is accredited by the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools. The campus is about from the state line between Virginia and West Virgi ...
. He developed various rating models at that time, and presented his work in the form of an honors project. While doing graduate work in mathematics at
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech (formally the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and informally VT, or VPI) is a Public university, public Land-grant college, land-grant research university with its main campus in Blacksburg, Virginia. It also ...
, Massey was invited by
Roy Kramer
Roy is a masculine given name and a family surname with varied origin.
In Anglo-Norman England, the name derived from the Norman ''roy'', meaning "king", while its Old French cognate, ''rey'' or ''roy'' (modern ''roi''), likewise gave rise to ...
, then commissioner of the
Southeastern Conference
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) is an American college athletic conference whose member institutions are located primarily in the South Central and Southeastern United States. Its fourteen members include the flagship public universities of ...
and president of the
Bowl Championship Series
The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) was a selection system that created four or five bowl game match-ups involving eight or ten of the top ranked teams in the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) of American college football, including ...
, to submit his ratings for inclusion in the BCS ranking formula. Massey's college football rankings were part of the BCS formula from 1999 to 2013.
Massey also consults for various amateur and professional athletic leagues.
Personal life
Massey resides in a high neighborhood of
Jefferson City, TN
Jefferson City (originally named Mossy Creek) is a city in Jefferson County, Tennessee, United States. It is part of the Morristown Metropolitan Statistical Area. As of the 2020 census the population was 8,419.
History
Heading southwest along ...
with his wife, a native of
Sibiu, Romania
Sibiu ( , , german: link=no, Hermannstadt , la, Cibinium, Transylvanian Saxon dialect, Transylvanian Saxon: ''Härmeschtat'', hu, Nagyszeben ) is a city in Romania, in the historical region of Transylvania. Located some north-west of Buchares ...
. They currently have three small children, a daughter Page, and sons Charles and Vlad.
References
External links
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{{DEFAULTSORT:Massey, Kenneth
Living people
American statisticians
1975 births
Bluefield College alumni
Carson–Newman University faculty
Virginia Tech alumni
People from Jefferson City, Tennessee
College football championships