Jay Wright Forrester (July 14, 1918 – November 16, 2016) was a pioneering American
computer engineer
Computer engineering (CoE or CpE) is a branch of electrical engineering and computer science that integrates several fields of computer science and electronic engineering required to develop computer hardware and computer software, software. C ...
and
systems scientist. He is credited with being one of the inventors of
magnetic core memory
Magnetic-core memory was the predominant form of random-access computer memory for 20 years between about 1955 and 1975.
Such memory is often just called core memory, or, informally, core.
Core memory uses toroids (rings) of a hard magneti ...
, the predominant form of
random-access computer memory
In computing, memory is a device or system that is used to store information for immediate use in a computer or related computer hardware and digital electronic devices. The term ''memory'' is often synonymous with the term '' primary storag ...
during the most explosive years of
digital computer
A computer is a machine that can be programmed to carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations (computation) automatically. Modern digital electronic computers can perform generic sets of operations known as programs. These program ...
development (between 1955 and 1975). It was part of a family of related technologies which bridged the gap between
vacuum tube
A vacuum tube, electron tube, valve (British usage), or tube (North America), is a device that controls electric current flow in a high vacuum between electrodes to which an electric potential difference has been applied.
The type known as ...
s and
semiconductor
A semiconductor is a material which has an electrical conductivity value falling between that of a conductor, such as copper, and an insulator, such as glass. Its resistivity falls as its temperature rises; metals behave in the opposite way. ...
s by exploiting the magnetic properties of materials to perform switching and amplification.
He is also believed to have created the first
animation in the history of
computer graphics
Computer graphics deals with generating images with the aid of computers. Today, computer graphics is a core technology in digital photography, film, video games, cell phone and computer displays, and many specialized applications. A great de ...
, a "jumping ball" on an
oscilloscope.
Later, he was a professor at the
MIT Sloan School of Management, where he introduced the
Forrester effect describing fluctuations in
supply chains, and is credited as the founder of
system dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in
dynamic systems and is most often applied to research and consulting in organizations and other social systems.
Early days
Forrester was born on a farm near
Anselmo, Nebraska, where "his early interest in electricity was spurred, perhaps, by the fact that the ranch had none. While in high school, he built a wind-driven, 12-volt electrical system using old car parts—it gave the ranch its first electric power."
[Biography Jay Forrester](_blank)
on ''thocp.net'', 2005. Accessed August 18, 2013
Forrester received his Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering in 1939 from the
University of Nebraska–Lincoln
The University of Nebraska–Lincoln (Nebraska, NU, or UNL) is a public land-grant research university in Lincoln, Nebraska. Chartered in 1869 by the Nebraska Legislature as part of the Morrill Act of 1862, the school was known as the Univers ...
, was inducted in 1949 into
Eta Kappa Nu (ΗΚΝ) the Electrical & Computer Engineering Honor Society, and went on to graduate school at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a private land-grant research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Established in 1861, MIT has played a key role in the development of modern technology and science, and is one of the ...
, where he would spend his entire career.
Career
Whirlwind project/Magnetic core memory/Computer graphics
During the 1940s and early 50s, Forrester did research in electrical and computer engineering at MIT, heading the
Whirlwind project, perfecting
magnetic-core memory
Magnetic-core memory was the predominant form of random-access computer memory for 20 years between about 1955 and 1975.
Such memory is often just called core memory, or, informally, core.
Core memory uses toroids (rings) of a hard magneti ...
,
[Katie Hafner]
"Jay W. Forrester Dies at 98; a Pioneer in Computer Models"
''The New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid d ...
'', November 17, 2016. and developing the "multi-coordinate digital information storage device"
[Multicoordinate digital information storage device](_blank)
US patent 2736880 (coincident-current system), the forerunner of today's
RAM
Ram, ram, or RAM may refer to:
Animals
* A male sheep
* Ram cichlid, a freshwater tropical fish
People
* Ram (given name)
* Ram (surname)
* Ram (director) (Ramsubramaniam), an Indian Tamil film director
* RAM (musician) (born 1974), Dutch
* ...
. He is also believed to have created the first
animation in the history of
computer graphics
Computer graphics deals with generating images with the aid of computers. Today, computer graphics is a core technology in digital photography, film, video games, cell phone and computer displays, and many specialized applications. A great de ...
, a "jumping ball" on an
oscilloscope.
Forrester effect
In 1956, Forrester moved to the
MIT Sloan School of Management, where he was Germeshausen Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer. In 1961, arising from a project with
General Electric
General Electric Company (GE) is an American multinational conglomerate founded in 1892, and incorporated in New York state and headquartered in Boston. The company operated in sectors including healthcare, aviation, power, renewable en ...
, he wrote about the expanding effects down the
supply chains due to fluctuations in demand, originally known as the
Forrester effect and today more frequently described as the "bullwhip effect".
[
In 1972, he received the IEEE Medal of Honor, ]IEEE
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) is a 501(c)(3) professional association for electronic engineering and electrical engineering (and associated disciplines) with its corporate office in New York City and its operat ...
s highest award.
In 1982, he received the IEEE
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) is a 501(c)(3) professional association for electronic engineering and electrical engineering (and associated disciplines) with its corporate office in New York City and its operat ...
Computer Pioneer Award. In 1995, he was made a Fellow of the Computer History Museum "for his perfecting of core memory technology into a practical computer memory device; for fundamental contributions to early computer systems design and development". In 2006, he was inducted into the Operational Research Hall of Fame.
System dynamics
Forrester was the founder of system dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in dynamic systems. ''Industrial Dynamics'' was the first book Forrester wrote using system dynamics to analyze industrial business cycles. Several years later, interactions with former Boston Mayor
The mayor of Boston is the head of the municipal government in Boston, Massachusetts. Boston has a mayor–council government. Boston's mayoral elections are nonpartisan (as are all municipal elections in Boston), and elect a mayor to a four-y ...
John F. Collins led Forrester to write ''Urban Dynamics'', which sparked an ongoing debate on the feasibility of modeling broader social problems. The book went on to influence the video game SimCity
''SimCity'' is an open-ended city-building video game series originally designed by Will Wright. The first game in the series, ''SimCity'', was published by Maxis in 1989 and were followed by several sequels and many other spin-off "''Sim ...
.
The urban dynamics model attracted the attention of urban planners around the world, eventually leading Forrester to meet a founder of the Club of Rome. He later met with the Club of Rome to discuss issues surrounding global sustainability; the book ''World Dynamics'' followed. ''World Dynamics'' took on modeling the complex interactions of the world economy
An economy is an area of the production, distribution and trade, as well as consumption of goods and services. In general, it is defined as a social domain that emphasize the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with the ...
, population
Population typically refers to the number of people in a single area, whether it be a city or town, region, country, continent, or the world. Governments typically quantify the size of the resident population within their jurisdiction using a ...
and ecology
Ecology () is the study of the relationships between living organisms, including humans, and their physical environment. Ecology considers organisms at the individual, population, community, ecosystem, and biosphere level. Ecology overl ...
, which was controversial (see also Donella Meadows and ''Limits to Growth
''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simula ...
''). It was the start of the field of global modeling.[ Forrester continued working in applications of system dynamics and promoting its use in education.
]
Publications
Forrester has written several books, articles and papers. Books, a selection:
* 1961. ''Industrial dynamics''. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.
* 1968. ''Principles of Systems'', 2nd ed. Pegasus Communications.
* 1969. ''Urban Dynamics''. Pegasus Communications.
* 1971. ''World Dynamics''. Wright-Allen Press.[ World3]
* 1975. ''Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester''. Pegasus Communications.
Articles and papers, a selection:
* 1958. "Industrial Dynamics--A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers.", in: ''Harvard Business Review'', Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 37–66.
* 1968, ''Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment'' in ''Industrial Management Review'', Vol. IX, No. 2, Winter 1968.
* 1971, ''Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems''. Also availabl
online
* 1989, ''System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years''.
* 1991, ''The Beginning of System Dynamics''.
* 1992, ''System Dynamics and Learner-Centered-Learning in Kindergarten through 12th Grade Education.''
* 1994, ''Learning through System Dynamics as preparation for the 21st Century''.
* 1996, ''System Dynamics and K–12 Teachers''.
* 1998, ''Designing the Future''.
* 1999, ''System Dynamics: the Foundation Under Systems Thinking''.
''Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems''
''Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems'' is a 1971 paper by Jay Wright Forrester. In it, Forrester argues that the use of computerized system models to inform social policy is far superior to simple debate, both in generating insight into the root causes of problems and in understanding the likely effects of proposed solutions.
=Description
=
Forrester characterizes normal debate and discussion as being dominated by inexact mental models:
:''The mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. It is imprecisely stated. Furthermore, within one individual, a mental model changes with time and even during the flow of a single conversation. The human mind assembles a few relationships to fit the context of a discussion. As the subject shifts so does the model. When only a single topic is being discussed, each participant in a conversation employs a different mental model to interpret the subject. Fundamental assumptions differ but are never brought into the open. Goals are different and are left unstated. It is little wonder that compromise takes so long. And it is not surprising that consensus leads to laws and programs that fail in their objectives or produce new difficulties greater than those that have been relieved.''
The paper summarizes the results of a previous study on the system dynamics governing economic dynamics in urban centers, which showed "how industry, housing, and people interact with each other as a city grows and decays." The study's findings, presented more fully in Forrester's 1969 book ''Urban Dynamics'', suggest that the root cause of depressed economic conditions is a significant shortage of job opportunities relative to the population level, and that the most popular solutions proposed at the time (e.g. an increase in the amount of low-income housing available, or a reduction in real estate taxes) counter-intuitively serve to make the situation worse by increasing the population but not the availability of jobs, so that the relative shortage increases. The paper further suggests that measures to reduce the shortage -- such as the conversion of land use from housing to industry, or an increase in real estate taxes to spur redevelopment of property -- would counter-intuitively create the result desired when enacting the failed policies.
The paper also gives an overview of Forrester's model of world dynamics that correlates population, food production, industrial development, pollution, availability of natural resources, and quality of life, as well as projections of those values into the future under various assumptions. This model is presented more fully in Forrester's 1971 ''World Dynamics'', and is notable primarily because it served as the initial basis for the World3 model used by Donella and Dennis Meadows in their popular 1972 book ''The Limits to Growth
''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simula ...
''.
See also
*DYNAMO (programming language)
DYNAMO (DYNAmic MOdels) is a simulation language and accompanying graphical notation developed within the system dynamics analytical framework. It was originally for industrial dynamics but was soon extended to other applications, including popul ...
* Roger Sisson
References
External links
Selected papers by Forrester.
*
Biography of Jay W. Forrester
from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
"The many careers of Jay Forrester," ''MIT Technology Review'', June 23, 2015
*Jay Wright Forrester Papers, MC 439, box X. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute Archives and Special Collections, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
{{DEFAULTSORT:Forrester, Jay
1918 births
2016 deaths
20th-century American inventors
American systems scientists
Computer engineers
American operations researchers
IEEE Medal of Honor recipients
Massachusetts Institute of Technology alumni
National Medal of Technology recipients
Members of the United States National Academy of Engineering
MIT Sloan School of Management faculty
University of Nebraska–Lincoln alumni
People from Custer County, Nebraska
Howard N. Potts Medal recipients
Valdemar Poulsen Gold Medal recipients