Jay Wright Forrester (July 14, 1918 – November 16, 2016) was a pioneering American

computer engineer Computer engineering (CoE or CpE) is a branch of electrical engineering and computer science that integrates several fields of computer science and electronic engineering required to develop computer hardware and software. Computer engineers ...

and systems scientist. He is credited with being one of the inventors of

magnetic core memory Magnetic-core memory was the predominant form of random-access computer memory for 20 years between about 1955 and 1975. Such memory is often just called core memory, or, informally, core. Core memory uses toroids (rings) of a hard magnetic ...

, the predominant form of

random-access Random access (more precisely and more generally called direct access) is the ability to access an arbitrary element of a sequence in equal time or any datum from a population of addressable elements roughly as easily and efficiently as any othe ...

computer memory In computing, memory is a device or system that is used to store information for immediate use in a computer or related computer hardware and digital electronic devices. The term ''memory'' is often synonymous with the term ''primary storage ...

during the most explosive years of

digital computer A computer is a machine that can be programmed to carry out sequences of arithmetic or logical operations ( computation) automatically. Modern digital electronic computers can perform generic sets of operations known as programs. These pro ...

development (between 1955 and 1975). It was part of a family of related technologies which bridged the gap between

vacuum tube A vacuum tube, electron tube, valve (British usage), or tube (North America), is a device that controls electric current flow in a high vacuum between electrodes to which an electric voltage, potential difference has been applied. The type kn ...

s and

semiconductor A semiconductor is a material which has an electrical resistivity and conductivity, electrical conductivity value falling between that of a electrical conductor, conductor, such as copper, and an insulator (electricity), insulator, such as glas ...

s by exploiting the magnetic properties of materials to perform switching and amplification. He is also believed to have created the first

animation Animation is a method by which image, still figures are manipulated to appear as Motion picture, moving images. In traditional animation, images are drawn or painted by hand on transparent cel, celluloid sheets to be photographed and exhibited ...

in the history of

computer graphics Computer graphics deals with generating images with the aid of computers. Today, computer graphics is a core technology in digital photography, film, video games, cell phone and computer displays, and many specialized applications. A great de ...

, a "jumping ball" on an

oscilloscope An oscilloscope (informally a scope) is a type of electronic test instrument that graphically displays varying electrical voltages as a two-dimensional plot of one or more signals as a function of time. The main purposes are to display repetiti ...

. Later, he was a professor at the

MIT Sloan School of Management The MIT Sloan School of Management (MIT Sloan or Sloan) is the business school of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a private university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. MIT Sloan offers bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degree programs, ...

, where he introduced the Forrester effect describing fluctuations in supply chains, and is credited as the founder of

system dynamics System dynamics (SD) is an approach to understanding the nonlinear behaviour of complex systems over time using stocks, flows, internal feedback loops, table functions and time delays. Overview System dynamics is a methodology and mathematical ...

, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in

dynamic systems In mathematics, a dynamical system is a system in which a function describes the time dependence of a point in an ambient space. Examples include the mathematical models that describe the swinging of a clock pendulum, the flow of water in a p ...

and is most often applied to research and consulting in organizations and other social systems.

Early days

Forrester was born on a farm near

Anselmo, Nebraska Anselmo is a village in Custer County, Nebraska, United States. The population was 145 at the 2010 census. History Anselmo was platted in 1886 when the Burlington and Missouri River Railroad was extended to that point. It was named for Anselmo B ...

, where "his early interest in electricity was spurred, perhaps, by the fact that the ranch had none. While in high school, he built a wind-driven, 12-volt electrical system using old car parts—it gave the ranch its first electric power."Biography Jay Forrester
on ''thocp.net'', 2005. Accessed August 18, 2013 Forrester received his Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering in 1939 from the

University of Nebraska–Lincoln The University of Nebraska–Lincoln (Nebraska, NU, or UNL) is a public land-grant research university in Lincoln, Nebraska. Chartered in 1869 by the Nebraska Legislature as part of the Morrill Act of 1862, the school was known as the Universit ...

, was inducted in 1949 into

Eta Kappa Nu Eta Kappa Nu () or IEEE-HKN is the international honor society of the Computer Science and Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). "The organization promotes excellence in the profession and in education through an emphasis ...

(ΗΚΝ) the Electrical & Computer Engineering Honor Society, and went on to graduate school at the

Massachusetts Institute of Technology The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a private land-grant research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Established in 1861, MIT has played a key role in the development of modern technology and science, and is one of the ...

, where he would spend his entire career.

Career

Whirlwind project/Magnetic core memory/Computer graphics

Project Whirlwind - core memory, circa 1951 - detail 1

During the 1940s and early 50s, Forrester did research in electrical and computer engineering at MIT, heading the Whirlwind project, perfecting

magnetic-core memory Magnetic-core memory was the predominant form of random access, random-access computer memory for 20 years between about 1955 and 1975. Such memory is often just called core memory, or, informally, core. Core memory uses toroids (rings) of a ...

,Katie Hafner
"Jay W. Forrester Dies at 98; a Pioneer in Computer Models"
''

The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...

'', November 17, 2016. and developing the "multi-coordinate digital information storage device"Multicoordinate digital information storage device
US patent 2736880 (coincident-current system), the forerunner of today's

RAM Ram, ram, or RAM may refer to: Animals * A male sheep * Ram cichlid, a freshwater tropical fish People * Ram (given name) * Ram (surname) * Ram (director) (Ramsubramaniam), an Indian Tamil film director * RAM (musician) (born 1974), Dutch * ...

. He is also believed to have created the first

in the history of

, a "jumping ball" on an

Forrester effect

In 1956, Forrester moved to the

, where he was Germeshausen Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer. In 1961, arising from a project with

General Electric General Electric Company (GE) is an American multinational conglomerate founded in 1892, and incorporated in New York state and headquartered in Boston. The company operated in sectors including healthcare, aviation, power, renewable energ ...

, he wrote about the expanding effects down the supply chains due to fluctuations in demand, originally known as the Forrester effect and today more frequently described as the "bullwhip effect". In 1972, he received the

IEEE Medal of Honor The IEEE Medal of Honor is the highest recognition of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). It has been awarded since 1917, when its first recipient was Major Edwin H. Armstrong. It is given for an exceptional contribution ...

IEEE The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) is a 501(c)(3) professional association for electronic engineering and electrical engineering (and associated disciplines) with its corporate office in New York City and its operation ...

s highest award. In 1982, he received the

Computer Pioneer Award. In 1995, he was made a Fellow of the

Computer History Museum The Computer History Museum (CHM) is a museum of computer history, located in Mountain View, California. The museum presents stories and artifacts of Silicon Valley and the information age, and explores the computing revolution and its impact on ...

"for his perfecting of core memory technology into a practical computer memory device; for fundamental contributions to early computer systems design and development". In 2006, he was inducted into the Operational Research Hall of Fame.

System dynamics

Forrester was the founder of

, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects in

. ''Industrial Dynamics'' was the first book Forrester wrote using system dynamics to analyze industrial business cycles. Several years later, interactions with former

Boston Mayor The mayor of Boston is the head of the municipal government in Boston, Massachusetts. Boston has a mayor–council government. Boston's mayoral elections are nonpartisan (as are all municipal elections in Boston), and elect a mayor to a four-y ...

John F. Collins led Forrester to write ''Urban Dynamics'', which sparked an ongoing debate on the feasibility of modeling broader social problems. The book went on to influence the video game

SimCity ''SimCity'' is an open-ended city-building video game series originally designed by Will Wright. The first game in the series, ''SimCity'', was published by Maxis in 1989 and were followed by several sequels and many other spin-off "''Sim' ...

. The urban dynamics model attracted the attention of urban planners around the world, eventually leading Forrester to meet a founder of the

Club of Rome The Club of Rome is a nonprofit, informal organization of intellectuals and business leaders whose goal is a critical discussion of pressing global issues. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 at Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, Italy. It consists ...

. He later met with the Club of Rome to discuss issues surrounding global sustainability; the book ''World Dynamics'' followed. ''World Dynamics'' took on modeling the complex interactions of the world

economy An economy is an area of the production, distribution and trade, as well as consumption of goods and services. In general, it is defined as a social domain that emphasize the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with the ...

population Population typically refers to the number of people in a single area, whether it be a city or town, region, country, continent, or the world. Governments typically quantify the size of the resident population within their jurisdiction using a ...

and

ecology Ecology () is the study of the relationships between living organisms, including humans, and their physical environment. Ecology considers organisms at the individual, population, community, ecosystem, and biosphere level. Ecology overlaps wi ...

, which was controversial (see also

Donella Meadows Donella Hager "Dana" Meadows (March 13, 1941 – February 20, 2001) was an American environmental scientist, educator, and writer. She is best known as lead author of the books ''The Limits to Growth'' and '' Thinking In Systems: A Primer''. E ...

and ''

Limits to Growth ''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simula ...

''). It was the start of the field of global modeling. Forrester continued working in applications of system dynamics and promoting its use in education.

Publications

Forrester has written several books, articles and papers. Books, a selection: * 1961. ''Industrial dynamics''. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications. * 1968. ''Principles of Systems'', 2nd ed. Pegasus Communications. * 1969. ''Urban Dynamics''. Pegasus Communications. * 1971. ''World Dynamics''. Wright-Allen Press.

World3 The World3 model is a system dynamics model for computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the earth. It was originally produced and used by a Club of Rome study that p ...

* 1975. ''Collected Papers of Jay W. Forrester''. Pegasus Communications. Articles and papers, a selection: * 1958. "Industrial Dynamics--A Major Breakthrough for Decision Makers.", in: ''Harvard Business Review'', Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 37–66. * 1968, ''Market Growth as Influenced by Capital Investment'' in ''Industrial Management Review'', Vol. IX, No. 2, Winter 1968. * 1971, ''Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems''. Also availabl
online
* 1989, ''System Dynamics and the Lessons of 35 Years''. * 1991, ''The Beginning of System Dynamics''. * 1992, ''System Dynamics and Learner-Centered-Learning in Kindergarten through 12th Grade Education.'' * 1994, ''Learning through System Dynamics as preparation for the 21st Century''. * 1996, ''System Dynamics and K–12 Teachers''. * 1998, ''Designing the Future''. * 1999, ''System Dynamics: the Foundation Under Systems Thinking''.

''Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems''

''Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems'' is a 1971 paper by Jay Wright Forrester. In it, Forrester argues that the use of computerized system models to inform social policy is far superior to simple debate, both in generating insight into the root causes of problems and in understanding the likely effects of proposed solutions.

=Description

= Forrester characterizes normal debate and discussion as being dominated by inexact mental models: :''The mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. It is imprecisely stated. Furthermore, within one individual, a mental model changes with time and even during the flow of a single conversation. The human mind assembles a few relationships to fit the context of a discussion. As the subject shifts so does the model. When only a single topic is being discussed, each participant in a conversation employs a different mental model to interpret the subject. Fundamental assumptions differ but are never brought into the open. Goals are different and are left unstated. It is little wonder that compromise takes so long. And it is not surprising that consensus leads to laws and programs that fail in their objectives or produce new difficulties greater than those that have been relieved.'' The paper summarizes the results of a previous study on the system dynamics governing economic dynamics in urban centers, which showed "how industry, housing, and people interact with each other as a city grows and decays." The study's findings, presented more fully in Forrester's 1969 book ''Urban Dynamics'', suggest that the root cause of depressed economic conditions is a significant shortage of job opportunities relative to the population level, and that the most popular solutions proposed at the time (e.g. an increase in the amount of low-income housing available, or a reduction in real estate taxes) counter-intuitively serve to make the situation worse by increasing the population but not the availability of jobs, so that the relative shortage increases. The paper further suggests that measures to reduce the shortage -- such as the conversion of land use from housing to industry, or an increase in real estate taxes to spur redevelopment of property -- would counter-intuitively create the result desired when enacting the failed policies. The paper also gives an overview of Forrester's model of world dynamics that correlates population, food production, industrial development, pollution, availability of natural resources, and quality of life, as well as projections of those values into the future under various assumptions. This model is presented more fully in Forrester's 1971 ''World Dynamics'', and is notable primarily because it served as the initial basis for the

model used by Donella and

Dennis Meadows Dennis Lynn Meadows (born June 7, 1942) is an American scientist and Emeritus Professor of Systems Management, and former director of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research at the University of New Hampshire. He is President of t ...

in their popular 1972 book ''

The Limits to Growth ''The Limits to Growth'' (''LTG'') is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simula ...

''.

References

External links

Selected papers by Forrester.
*
Biography of Jay W. Forrester
from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
"The many careers of Jay Forrester," ''MIT Technology Review'', June 23, 2015
*Jay Wright Forrester Papers, MC 439, box X. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute Archives and Special Collections, Cambridge, Massachusetts. {{DEFAULTSORT:Forrester, Jay 1918 births 2016 deaths 20th-century American inventors American systems scientists Computer engineers American operations researchers IEEE Medal of Honor recipients Massachusetts Institute of Technology alumni National Medal of Technology recipients Members of the United States National Academy of Engineering MIT Sloan School of Management faculty University of Nebraska–Lincoln alumni People from Custer County, Nebraska Howard N. Potts Medal recipients Valdemar Poulsen Gold Medal recipients