The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic

leading indicator An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic i ...

intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by

The Conference Board The Conference Board, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) non-profit business membership and research group organization. It counts over 1,000 public and private corporations and other organizations as members, encompassing 60 countries. The Conference Board co ...

, a

non-governmental organization A non-governmental organization (NGO) or non-governmental organisation (see spelling differences) is an organization that generally is formed independent from government. They are typically nonprofit entities, and many of them are active in ...

, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a

recession In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various ...

and upward before an

expansion Expansion may refer to: Arts, entertainment and media * ''L'Expansion'', a French monthly business magazine * ''Expansion'' (album), by American jazz pianist Dave Burrell, released in 2004 * ''Expansions'' (McCoy Tyner album), 1970 * ''Expansio ...

. The per cent change year over year of the Leading Economic Index is a lagging indicator of the market directions. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report What Predicts U.S. Recessions? uses each component of the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index. That report said that the indicators signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle, and the aggregate index has been shown to drop ahead of recessions and rise before expansions. Revisions to The Conference Board Leading Economic Index effective with the January 26, 2012 release began using the new Leading Credit Index ... etc.Calculating the Composite Indexes
/ref> * The

United States Department of Labor The United States Department of Labor (DOL) is one of the executive departments of the U.S. federal government. It is responsible for the administration of federal laws governing occupational safety and health, wage and hour standards, unemploy ...

’s monthly report on the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the average workweek hours from the Employment Situation report * The

’s weekly report on first-time claims for state unemployment insurance * The

United States Census Bureau The United States Census Bureau (USCB), officially the Bureau of the Census, is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System, responsible for producing data about the American people and economy. The Census Bureau is part of th ...

’s monthly consumer goods and materials report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders * The

’s monthly non-defense capital goods report from the Preliminary Report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders * The

’s monthly report on building permits from the Housing Starts and Building Permits report * The difference (spread) between the interest rates of 10-year United States Treasury notes and the

federal funds rate In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances a ...

* The Federal Reserve's inflation-adjusted measure of the M2

money supply In macroeconomics, the money supply (or money stock) refers to the total volume of currency held by the public at a particular point in time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures usually include currency in circu ...

* The

Institute for Supply Management Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the oldest, and the largest, supply management association in the world. Founded in 1915, the U.S.-based not-for-profit educational association serves professionals and organizations with a keen interest ...

’s monthly ISM Index of Manufacturing including: supplier deliveries, imports, production, inventories, new orders, new export orders, order backlogs, prices and employment. * The

S&P 500 The Standard and Poor's 500, or simply the S&P 500, is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. As of ...

* The

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 in the first quarter of 1966. Each month at least 500 telephone inte ...

's consumer expectations

References

External links

The Conference Board's Global Business Cycle Indicators

OECD leading indicator statistics

Macroeconomic forecasting Macroeconomic indicators {{macroeconomics-stub

See also

References

External links