Ian Arthur Bremmer (born November 12, 1969) is an American
political scientist
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
and author with a focus on global
political risk. He is the president and founder of
Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group is a political risk consultancy founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer.
History
Eurasia Group reports on emerging markets including frontier and developed economies, in addition to establishing practices focused on geo-technology and ener ...
, a political risk research and consulting firm with principal offices in New York City. He is also a founder of the digital media firm GZERO Media.
Early life and education
Bremmer is of
Armenian (from his maternal grandmother),
Italian
Italian(s) may refer to:
* Anything of, from, or related to the people of Italy over the centuries
** Italians, an ethnic group or simply a citizen of the Italian Republic or Italian Kingdom
** Italian language, a Romance language
*** Regional Ita ...
, and
German
German(s) may refer to:
* Germany (of or related to)
**Germania (historical use)
* Germans, citizens of Germany, people of German ancestry, or native speakers of the German language
** For citizens of Germany, see also German nationality law
**Ge ...
descent, the son of Maria J. (née Scrivano) and Arthur Bremmer. His father served in the
Korean War
{{Infobox military conflict
, conflict = Korean War
, partof = the Cold War and the Korean conflict
, image = Korean War Montage 2.png
, image_size = 300px
, caption = Clockwise from top:{ ...
and died at the age of 46 when Bremmer was four. He grew up in housing projects in
Chelsea, Massachusetts
Chelsea is a city in Suffolk County, Massachusetts, United States, directly across the Mystic River from the city of Boston. As of the 2020 census, Chelsea had a population of 40,787. With a total area of just 2.46 square miles, Chelsea is the ...
, near
Boston
Boston (), officially the City of Boston, is the state capital and most populous city of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, as well as the cultural and financial center of the New England region of the United States. It is the 24th- mo ...
. Bremmer went to
St. Dominic Savio High School in
East Boston
East Boston, nicknamed Eastie, is a neighborhood of Boston, Massachusetts annexed by the city of Boston in 1637. Neighboring communities include Winthrop, Revere, and Chelsea. It is separated from the Boston neighborhood of Charlestown and d ...
. He later earned a BA in international relations, ''
magna cum laude
Latin honors are a system of Latin phrases used in some colleges and universities to indicate the level of distinction with which an academic degree has been earned. The system is primarily used in the United States. It is also used in some Sou ...
'', from
Tulane University
Tulane University, officially the Tulane University of Louisiana, is a private research university in New Orleans, Louisiana. Founded as the Medical College of Louisiana in 1834 by seven young medical doctors, it turned into a comprehensive pub ...
in 1989 and a PhD in political science from
Stanford University
Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. The campus occupies , among the largest in the United States, and enrolls over 17,000 students. Stanford is conside ...
in 1994, writing "The politics of ethnicity: Russians in the Ukraine".
Career
Eurasia Group
Bremmer founded the political risk research and consulting firm
Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group is a political risk consultancy founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer.
History
Eurasia Group reports on emerging markets including frontier and developed economies, in addition to establishing practices focused on geo-technology and ener ...
in 1998 in the offices of the World Policy Institute in New York City.
The firm opened a London office in 2000; a Washington, DC office in 2005; a Tokyo office in 2015; San Francisco and São Paulo offices in 2016; and Brasilia and Singapore offices in 2017. Initially focused on emerging markets, Eurasia Group has expanded to include frontier and developed economies and established practices focused on geo-technology and energy issues. Bremmer has co-authored Eurasia Group’s annual Top Risks report, a forecast of the 10 key geopolitical risks for the year ahead.
Writing
Bremmer has published 11 books on global affairs. In addition, Bremmer is the foreign-affairs columnist and editor-at-large for ''
Time
Time is the continued sequence of existence and event (philosophy), events that occurs in an apparently irreversible process, irreversible succession from the past, through the present, into the future. It is a component quantity of various me ...
'' and a contributor for the ''
Financial Times
The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Nik ...
'' A-List.
Appointments
Bremmer has held positions at
New York University
New York University (NYU) is a private research university in New York City. Chartered in 1831 by the New York State Legislature, NYU was founded by a group of New Yorkers led by then- Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin.
In 1832, th ...
,
Columbia University
Columbia University (also known as Columbia, and officially as Columbia University in the City of New York) is a private research university in New York City. Established in 1754 as King's College on the grounds of Trinity Church in Manhatt ...
, the
EastWest Institute, the World Policy Institute,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a federal research facility in Livermore, California, United States. The lab was originally established as the University of California Radiation Laboratory, Livermore Branch in 1952 in response ...
, and the
Asia Society
The Asia Society is a non-profit organization that focuses on educating the world about Asia. It has several centers in the United States (Manhattan, Washington, D.C., Houston, Los Angeles, and San Francisco) and around the world (Hong Kong, Ma ...
Policy Institute, where he has served as the first Harold J. Newman Distinguished Fellow in Geopolitics since 2015.
In 2013, he was named Global Research Professor at
New York University
New York University (NYU) is a private research university in New York City. Chartered in 1831 by the New York State Legislature, NYU was founded by a group of New Yorkers led by then- Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin.
In 1832, th ...
. and in 2019,
Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs announced that Bremmer would teach an Applied Geopolitics course at the school.
Bremmer serves on the President's Council of the
Near East Foundation
The Near East Foundation (NEF), founded in 1915 as the American Committee on Armenian Atrocities, later the American Committee for Relief in the Near East (ACRNE), and after that Near East Relief, is a Syracuse, New York-based American internation ...
, the Leadership Council for the
Concordia Summit, and the board of trustees of
Intelligence Squared
Intelligence Squared is a media company that organizes live debates and other cultural events around the world. It was founded in 2002 in London, where its head office is based, and has affiliates in the US, Australia, and Hong Kong. The debat ...
. In 2007, he was named as a "Young Global Leader" of the
World Economic Forum
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is an international non-governmental and lobbying organisation based in Cologny, canton of Geneva, Switzerland. It was founded on 24 January 1971 by German engineer and economist Klaus Schwab. The foundation, ...
, and in 2010, he founded and was appointed Chair of the Forum's Global Agenda Council for Geopolitical Risk. In December 2015, Bremmer was
knight
A knight is a person granted an honorary title of knighthood by a head of state (including the Pope) or representative for service to the monarch, the Christian denomination, church or the country, especially in a military capacity. Knighthood ...
ed by the government of Italy.
Key concepts
Bremmer's research fields include:
international political economy,
geoeconomics and
geopolitics
Geopolitics (from Greek γῆ ''gê'' "earth, land" and πολιτική ''politikḗ'' "politics") is the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations. While geopolitics usually refers to ...
, states in transition and global
emerging markets
An emerging market (or an emerging country or an emerging economy) is a market that has some characteristics of a developed market, but does not fully meet its standards. This includes markets that may become developed markets in the future or wer ...
, and
US foreign policy
The officially stated goals of the foreign policy of the United States of America, including all the bureaus and offices in the United States Department of State, as mentioned in the ''Foreign Policy Agenda'' of the Department of State, are ...
.
J-Curve
Bremmer's book, ''
The J Curve'', outlines the link between a country's openness and its stability. While many countries are stable because they are open (the United States, France, Japan), others are stable because they are closed (North Korea, Cuba, Iraq under
Saddam Hussein
Saddam Hussein ( ; ar, صدام حسين, Ṣaddām Ḥusayn; 28 April 1937 – 30 December 2006) was an Iraqi politician who served as the fifth president of Iraq from 16 July 1979 until 9 April 2003. A leading member of the revolutio ...
). States can travel both forward (right) and backward (left) along this J curve, so stability and openness are never secure. The J is steeper on the left-hand side, as it is easier for a leader in a
failed state
A failed state is a political body that has disintegrated to a point where basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government no longer function properly (see also fragile state and state collapse). A state can also fail if the ...
to create stability by closing the country than to build a civil society and establish accountable institutions; the curve is higher on the far right because states that prevail in opening their societies (Eastern Europe, for example) ultimately become more stable than
authoritarian regimes
Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by the rejection of political plurality, the use of strong central power to preserve the political ''status quo'', and reductions in the rule of law, separation of powers, and democratic ...
. The book was listed as a top 10 pick by ''The Economist'' in 2006.
State capitalism
Ian Bremmer describes
state capitalism
State capitalism is an economic system in which the state undertakes business and commercial (i.e. for-profit) economic activity and where the means of production are nationalized as state-owned enterprises (including the processes of capital ...
as a system in which
the state
A state is a centralized political organization that imposes and enforces rules over a population within a territory. There is no undisputed definition of a state. One widely used definition comes from the German sociologist Max Weber: a "sta ...
dominates markets primarily for political gain. In his 2010 book ''
The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations'', Bremmer describes China as the primary driver for the rise of state capitalism as a challenge to the
free market economies of
the developed world, particularly in the aftermath of the
financial crisis
A financial crisis is any of a broad variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and man ...
.
G-Zero
The term G-Zero world refers to a breakdown in global leadership brought about by a decline of Western influence and the inability of other nations to fill the void. It is a reference to a perceived shift away from the pre-eminence of the
G7"("
Group of Seven
The Group of Seven (G7) is an intergovernmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States; additionally, the European Union (EU) is a "non-enumerated member". It is officiall ...
") industrialized countries and the expanded
Group of Twenty, which includes major emerging powers like China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and others. In his book, ''
Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World'' (New York: Portfolio, 2012), Bremmer explains that, in the G-Zero, no country or group of countries has the political and economic leverage to drive an international agenda or provide
global public goods.
Weaponization of finance
The term ''weaponization of finance'' refers to the foreign policy strategy of using incentives (access to capital markets) and penalties (varied types of sanctions) as tools of coercive diplomacy. In his
Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group is a political risk consultancy founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer.
History
Eurasia Group reports on emerging markets including frontier and developed economies, in addition to establishing practices focused on geo-technology and ener ...
Top Risks 2015 report.
Bremmer coins the term weaponization of finance to describe the ways in which the United States is using its influence to affect global outcomes. Rather than rely on traditional elements of America's security advantage – including US-led alliances such as
NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, ; french: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique nord, ), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 30 member states – 28 European and two N ...
and multilateral institutions such as the
World Bank
The World Bank is an international financial institution that provides loans and grants to the governments of low- and middle-income countries for the purpose of pursuing capital projects. The World Bank is the collective name for the Inte ...
and the
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution, headquartered in Washington, D.C., consisting of 190 countries. Its stated mission is "working to foster glo ...
– Bremmer argues that the US is now "weaponizing finance" by limiting access to the American marketplace and to US banks as an instrument of its foreign and security policy.
Pivot state
Bremmer uses ''pivot state'' to describe a nation that is able to build profitable relationships with multiple other major powers without becoming overly reliant on any one of them. This ability to hedge allows a pivot state to avoid capture—in terms of security or economy—at the hands of a single country. At the opposite end of the spectrum are ''shadow states,'' frozen within the influence of a single power. Canada is an example of a pivot state: with significant trade ties with both the United States and Asia, and formal security ties with
NATO
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, ; french: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique nord, ), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 30 member states – 28 European and two N ...
, it is hedged against conflict with any single major power. Mexico, on the other hand, is a shadow state due to its overwhelming reliance on the US economy.
In ''Every Nation for Itself'', Bremmer explains how, in a volatile
G-Zero world, the ability to pivot will take on increased importance.
Geopolitical recession
Bremmer has coined the term “geopolitical recession” to describe the current geopolitical environment, one defined by an unwinding of the former US-led global order. Unlike economic recessions, linked to frequent boom and bust cycles, Bremmer sees geopolitical recessions as much longer cycles that are less likely to be recognized. He sees the present geopolitical recession as defined by deteriorating relations between the US and its traditional allies—particularly the Europeans—as China is rising and creating an alternative international political and economic architecture. Bremmer argues that the overall result is a more fragmented approach to global governance, an increase in geopolitical tail risks, and a reduced ability to respond effectively to major international crises.
World Data Organization
Bremmer proposed creating a “World Data Organization” to forestall a division in technology ecosystems due to conflict between the United States and China. He described it as a digital version of the
World Trade Organization
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an intergovernmental organization that regulates and facilitates international trade. With effective cooperation
in the United Nations System, governments use the organization to establish, revise, and ...
, arguing that the United States, Europe, Japan, and other “governments that believe in online openness and transparency” should collaborate to set standards for artificial intelligence, data, privacy, citizens’ rights, and intellectual property. 2020 Democratic party presidential nominee candidate
Andrew Yang
Andrew Yang (born January 13, 1975) is an American businessman, attorney, lobbyist, and politician. Yang was a candidate in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries and the 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary. He is the co-c ...
expressed his support for such an organization during his campaign.
Technopolarity
Ian Bremmer originated the term “technopolarity” in his 2021 ''
Foreign Affairs
''Foreign Affairs'' is an American magazine of international relations and U.S. foreign policy published by the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonprofit, nonpartisan, membership organization and think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy a ...
'' article “The Technopolar Moment.” Drawing on the swift
response by tech companies in the aftermath of the 2021 United States
Capitol insurrection, Bremmer notes that tech giants like Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Alibaba have accumulated more power than any large corporations of the past. These nonstate actors are now shaping geopolitics and exercise a form of sovereignty over a rapidly expanding realm that is out of reach from national governments: the digital space.
A “technopolar” worldview recognizes the abilities such companies have to undermine national sovereignty of governments and influence geopolitics as much as some nation-states. The digital world is accordingly not unipolar, bipolar or multipolar but technopolar.
Other organizations
Eurasia Group Foundation
In 2016, Bremmer founded the Eurasia Group Foundation (EGF), a 501(c)3 public charity. Bremmer currently serves as the Eurasia Group Foundation’s board president.
GZERO Media
In 2017, Bremmer and Eurasia Group launched digital media company GZERO Media, and a US national public television show called ''GZERO World with Ian Bremmer'' on PBS. The company’s name refers to the term coined by Bremmer in ''
Every Nation for Itself'' to describe a world where no country or group of countries has the political and economic leverage to drive an international agenda or provide global public goods. As a part of the company's public outreach concept, they have a recurring segment, ''Puppet Regime'', which makes use of street interviews and short narrative sketch formats using puppets.
Controversies
In March 2016, Bremmer sent a weekly note to clients where he unintentionally came up with the "
America First" slogan used by
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
. The note described then-candidate Trump's foreign policy not as isolationism but as a policy of "America First," a transactional, unilateralist perspective that was more a Chinese than American framework for foreign policy. Bremmer used the term to help explain Trump’s foreign policy views and not as a campaign slogan. A few weeks later, ''
New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...
'' reporters David Sanger and
Maggie Haberman, both of whom receive Bremmer's weekly note, conducted Trump’s first foreign policy interview and asked him if he would describe himself as an isolationist. He said no. They then asked Trump if he considered himself an adherent of America First. Trump said yes and liked the term so much he started using it himself. Haberman later credited Bremmer with coming up with “America First” to describe Trump’s foreign policy.
In July 2017, Bremmer broke news of a second, previously undisclosed meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin during the G20 heads of state dinner in Hamburg. He wrote about the meeting in his weekly client note and later appeared on
Charlie Rose
Charles Peete Rose Jr. (born January 5, 1942) is an American former television journalist and talk show host. From 1991 to 2017, he was the host and executive producer of the talk show '' Charlie Rose'' on PBS and Bloomberg LP.
Rose also co- ...
to discuss the meeting’s implications. Other major media outlets quickly picked up the news. ''
Newsweek
''Newsweek'' is an American weekly online news magazine co-owned 50 percent each by Dev Pragad, its president and CEO, and Johnathan Davis (businessman), Johnathan Davis, who has no operational role at ''Newsweek''. Founded as a weekly print m ...
'' profiled Bremmer in an article titled "Who is Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer, the risk consultant who exposed the second Trump-Putin meeting?" Trump initially denied that his second meeting with Putin had taken place and called Bremmer's report "fake news." However, then-White House Press Secretary
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Sarah Elizabeth Huckabee Sanders (born August 13, 1982) is an American former political spokesperson and the governor-elect of Arkansas. She was the 31st White House press secretary, serving under President Donald Trump from 2017 to 2019. She ...
later held a press conference and admitted the second meeting had occurred.
In 2019, Donald Trump issued a Tweet that appeared to praise North Korean leader
Kim Jong Un
Kim Jong-un (; , ; born 8 January 1982) is a North Korean politician who has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and the leader of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) since 2012. He is a son of Kim Jong-il, who was North Korea's secon ...
for criticizing rival
Joe Biden: "I have confidence that Chairman Kim will keep his promise to me, & also smiled when he called Swampman Joe Biden a low IQ individual, & worse."
In reaction, Bremmer Tweeted: "President Trump in Tokyo: 'Kim Jong Un is smarter and would make a better President than Sleepy Joe Biden.'"
After he was criticized on Twitter for appearing to quote Trump falsely, Bremmer acknowledged that President Trump had not spoken as Bremmer had quoted him and suggested that the statement was facetious, calling it "objectively a completely ludicrous quote."
[ President Trump used the incident to call for stronger libel laws.]
In October 2022, Elon Musk
Elon Reeve Musk ( ; born June 28, 1971) is a business magnate and investor. He is the founder, CEO and chief engineer of SpaceX; angel investor, CEO and product architect of Tesla, Inc.; owner and CEO of Twitter, Inc.; founder of The B ...
tweeted, "Nobody should trust Bremmer" in reply to a tweet by Bremmer saying, "elon musk told me he had spoken with putin and the kremlin directly about ukraine. he also told me what the kremlin’s red lines were."[ https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1579941475613229056 ]
Selected bibliography
* ''Soviet Nationalities Problems''. (edited with Norman Naimark), (Stanford: Stanford Center for Russian and East European Studies: 1990).
* ''Nations and Politics in the Soviet Successor States''. (edited with Raymond Taras), (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993).
* '' New States, New Politics: Building the Post-Soviet Nations''. (edited with Raymond Taras), (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997).
* '' The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall''. (Simon & Schuster, 2006; revised paperback, 2007).
* ''Managing Strategic Surprise: Lessons from Risk Management & Risk Assessment''. (edited with Paul Bracken and David Gordon), (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008).
* '' The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing''. (with Preston Keat), (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009; revised paperback, 2010).
* '' The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations''. (New York: Portfolio, 2010; revised paperback 2011).
* '' Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World''. (New York: Portfolio, May 2012; revised paperback 2013).
* '' Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World''. (New York: Portfolio, May 2015).
* ''Us vs Them: The Failure of Globalism''. (New York: Portfolio, April 2018).
* ''The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats--And Our Response--Will Change The World''. (New York: Simon and Schuster, May 2022).
References
External links
Official website
Profile
at Eurasia Group
Eurasia Group is a political risk consultancy founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer.
History
Eurasia Group reports on emerging markets including frontier and developed economies, in addition to establishing practices focused on geo-technology and ener ...
A Second Look...
by Ian Bremmer
Ted Talk: What the War in Ukraine Means for the Global Order
The End of the American International Order: What Comes Next?
by Ian Bremmer
*
{{DEFAULTSORT:Bremmer, Ian
1969 births
Living people
American political scientists
Columbia University faculty
Stanford University alumni
International relations scholars
Tulane University alumni
Writers about globalization
People from Chelsea, Massachusetts
American people of Armenian descent
American people of German descent
American people of Italian descent
Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs