Israel–Hamas War Protest Vote Movements

The Israel–Hamas war protest vote movements are protest vote movements targeting the 2024 United States Democratic Party presidential primaries to protest US president Joe Biden's policy towards the Israel–Hamas war as part of larger Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States. After a notable "uncommitted" vote in the US state of Michigan, activists sought to replicate the protest in other US states. The movement is primarily led by a vocal minority of Muslim Americans, Arab Americans, and progressives.

While some activists under Abandon Biden argue against supporting Biden entirely during the 2024 general presidential election, others in uncommitted movements have argued for using uncommitted votes during the presidential primary to push for pro-Palestinian action before the presidential election. Both groups overlap and support each other's goals, to the point of being considered "twin" movements.

"Ceasefire" movement

On January 18, 2024, voters promoting a ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas war launched a write-in campaign for "ceasefire" in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Since incumbent president Joe Biden had declined to appear on the ballot due to DNC sanctions, with allies instead mounting a write-in campaign, advocates of the ceasefire campaign hoped that the increased focus on the write-in section of election results would send a message. New Hampshire secretary of state David Scanlan indicated that these "ceasefire" votes were tallied. Ultimately, "Ceasefire" received 1,497 votes, or 1.28%.

Uncommitted movements

The uncommitted movements are protest vote movements built around urging voters to write-in or check an uncommitted voting option to protest Biden's support for the Israel-Gaza war, and to push for a permanent ceasefire and ending military aide to Israel. The movements aims to "make these changes ahead of the general election or risk losing Democratic voter support".

2024 Michigan Democratic Primary

A movement for an uncommitted vote called ''Listen To Michigan'' was started by community organizers in Dearborn, including the younger sister to representative Rashida Tlaib with a budget of $250,000. The group aimed to use the uncommitted vote during the presidential primary to send a message to the Biden campaign to support a ceasefire, or else lose the presidential election. Both Rashida Tlaib and Dearborn mayor Abdullah Hammoud endorsed the campaign. Democratic Majority for Israel ran opposition ads against the uncommitted movement, arguing that a vote for uncommitted would represent support for Trump. Our Revolution endorsed the uncommitted movement and also helped support outreach for it.

Though the campaign aimed originally for 10,000 votes, which was the margin by which Hillary Clinton lost in the 2016 election, which was considered a low vote total historically, the final vote count exceeded it and reach 101,000 votes, or approximately 13.2% of the vote. As a result, the campaign won 2 delegates to send to the 2024 Democratic National Convention. While some progressive commentators, such as Michael Moore, stated that Biden's actions in Gaza could ultimately lose him the general election, others, including Biden campaign officials, argued that the result matches similar uncommitted movements in 2012 and 2008 in Michigan.

In March 2024, ''Listen To Michigan'' announced it was expanding into a national operation.

2024 Super Tuesday uncommitted movement

After the Michigan result, organizers in several states launched similar campaigns. However, most states do not have a dedicated "uncommitted" option, which can make organizing a protest vote more difficult. Minnesota organizers launched a protest vote movement for "uncommitted" with only four days before the primary. The movement was able to improve on Michigan's vote share, winning over 18% of the vote and 11 delegates. In North Carolina, where no actual candidates made the ballot other than Biden, 12% voted for "no preference," which some sources attributed to groups protesting Biden's support for Israel. Multiple sources observed that though the movement had "spread to other base Democratic voters" besides Muslim Americans, results from Super Tuesday suggested the Democratic Party "continues to coalesce around Biden."

Other races

In the 2024 Hawaii Democratic presidential caucuses, the uncommitted vote achieved 455 votes, or nearly 29% of the vote total, which net the movement 6 delegates. However, Hawaii did not appear to have any specific organized uncommitted movement organization.

In Georgia, a coalition of multi-ethnic, multi-faith progressives launched a ''Listen to Georgia Coalition'' to replicate a similar protest movement. Because Georgia does not release write-in candidate results, a local news organization looked at blank ballots instead, finding 3% of Democratic primary voters had submitted blank ballots within 5 counties.

An effort was organized in Washington, where uncommitted achieved slightly over 9% of the vote.

A similar effort is being replicated in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and other states. However, few races after Super Tuesday have dedicated uncommitted options, and those which do may not have many progressive, Muslim, or Arab American votes.

Impact

Some argued that as a result of the uncommitted movement, Kamala Harris began calling for a 6 week ceasefire in the region. Because the uncommitted option receives varied votes in each state during the primary, analysts find it "hard to compare apples-to-apples" the impact of the movement, especially with regards to past historical uncommitted vote results.

Though Biden supporters and some analysts generally suggest that the uncommitted vote is similar to historical patterns, some progressives, including Ro Khanna argue that the pattern of the vote suggests “particular groups of our coalition that are upset.” Some uncommitted results (i.e. North Carolina) are believed to be attributed to conservative “DINOs” (i.e. Democrats in Name Only) who vote uncommitted during the primary but would never vote Democrat during a general election.

Abandon Biden movement

Abandon Biden was originally started in Minnesota but has since spread to other swing states, with the goal of preventing a second-term Biden presidency. Many in the Abandon Biden movement have argued that Biden cannot undo damages, even if he called for a ceasefire and some within the movement have argued even for voting for Republicans in order to deny Biden a victory, though others say they will never vote for Trump and would instead write a third party candidate or abstain.

Trump has notably suggested total war in Gaza, deporting refugees from Gaza, revoking visas of pro-Palestinian demonstrators, and reinstituting a " Muslim ban", which many Democrats have argued would allow them to win Muslim votes. In addition, though Biden won many swing states by small margins, the Muslim American and Arab American proportion in most of those states constitutes a very small proportion of the electorate. However, some commentators argued that small margins of victory in swing states may suggest that the groups could have outsized effects. Michigan is noted as among the swing states with more than 200,000 Muslim voters, and 300,000 Arab Americans, well exceeding Biden's vote margin in 2020, and some have pointed out that disapproval with the conflict could be spreading to other groups such as youth and progressives.

Other movements

A Black Muslim group called the Black Muslim Leadership Council has worked towards supporting the uncommitted movement, but have argued they would not necessarily abandon Biden during the presidential election.

See also

* Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States

References

{{2024 United States presidential election

Israel–Hamas war protests in the United States
2024 United States Democratic presidential primaries
Controversies of the 2024 United States presidential election