Hurricane Noel

Hurricane Noel was a deadly and very damaging tropical cyclone that carved a path of destruction across the Atlantic Ocean from the Caribbean Sea to Newfoundland in late October 2007. The sixteenth tropical depression, fourteenth named storm, and the sixth hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, Noel formed on October 27 from the interaction between a tropical wave and an upper-level low in the north-central Caribbean. It strengthened to winds of before making landfall on western Haiti and the north coast of eastern Cuba. Noel turned northward, and on November 1, it attained hurricane status. The hurricane accelerated northeastward after crossing the Bahamas, and on November 2, it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. (The Canadian Hurricane Centre classified Noel as a "post-tropical storm" until 2200 UTC on November 4, when the CHC determined that Noel had lost all tropical characteristics.)

The storm caused at least 163 direct deaths along its path, primarily in Dominican Republic and Haiti, due to flooding and mudslides. It was the deadliest North Atlantic hurricane of the 2007 hurricane season. After its extratropical transition, Noel became a very strong low pressure system, causing flooding and wind damage over Maine and Eastern Canada, with heavy rainfall occurring across Atlantic Canada, and snowfall over some areas of Eastern Quebec and Labrador. Noel's remnants subsequently merged with Cyclone Tilo, a powerful European windstorm, which later struck Western Europe and contributed to the North Sea flood of 2007 on the night of November 8–9.

Meteorological history

A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on October 16. It tracked westward, initially without organization, and by October 22 was interacting with a trough while approaching the Lesser Antilles. This caused a low pressure area to develop on October 23 about east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles. The system continued westward with disorganized convection, and was unable to develop further due to strong wind shear. Despite the shear, convection increased as barometric pressures dropped in association with the organizing system. Turning west-southwestward, the low passed over the United States Virgin Islands on October 25 and just southeast of Puerto Rico the next day. Decreasing wind shear on October 27 allowed the thunderstorms to increase over the center late on October 27. After further organization, the system developed into Tropical Depression Sixteen at 0000  UTC on October 28, about south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast the depression to track west-northwestward, brushing southwestern Haiti before moving ashore along south-central Cuba.

Upon becoming a tropical cyclone, the tropical depression was moving to the west-northwest, under the steering currents of a high pressure area over the western Atlantic Ocean. Six hours after formation, the center of the storm became difficult to locate, though subsequently the tropical depression became much better organized; a large area of convection developed over the center, with several rainbands to its south. Based on reports from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Noel at 1815  UTC on October 28, while located about south-southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. After the center re-developed beneath the thunderstorms, the storm quickly strengthened to winds of , and for several hours, the cyclone was drifting to the south of Hispaniola. Noel began to lose organization as a nearby upper-level low increased wind shear, with the circulation becoming ill-defined, as it further interacted with the mountainous terrain of Haiti. The storm crossed western Haiti as a disorganized tropical storm on October 29, and subsequently began moving parallel to the northeastern coast of Cuba, while moving around the southwestern periphery of a weakening ridge. On October 30, Noel made landfall near Gibara, Cuba, with winds of about .

The center of Noel remained well-organized as it tracked through eastern Cuba, though its sustained winds quickly diminished to minimal tropical storm force. Early on October 31, Noel began drifting to the north-northwest, in response to the approach of a short-wave trough from the west and the eastward shift of the mid-level ridge. A large area of strong convective rainbands persisted to its east, though due to increased upper-level wind shear, there was little convection near the center. Shortly after 1200 UTC, on October 31, Noel emerged off the north coast of Cuba, and subsequently, the cyclone became better organized as storm's the circulation became better associated with the convection. While located just off the north coast of Cuba, the motion of Noel was nearly stationary, though forecasters indicated it could have executed a small cyclonic loop. On October 31, the Canadian Hurricane Centre began tracking the storm.

Convection increased early on November 1, though initially the center remained to the southwest of the large area of thunderstorms. At 1800 UTC that day, the storm passed over the Bahamian island of New Providence near the city of Nassau. Later that day, the center tracked beneath the convection, and Noel accelerated northeastward, in the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching trough; as it did so, the center became elongated and distorted. The cyclone maintained a large, round area of deep convection with well-defined outflow, and an eye feature became evident on satellite imagery. Based on reports from Hurricane Hunters, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Noel to hurricane status early on November 2, about north-northeast of Nassau, Bahamas. Noel's convection began to wane as it moved through progressively cooler waters, and as the storm lost tropical characteristics, its wind field expanded. By late on November 2, the inner core had substantially diminished, and the thermodynamic structure of the cyclone had become asymmetrical and frontal. As Noel began transitioning into an extratropical cyclone, the National Hurricane Center issued their final advisory on Hurricane Noel.

Early on November 3, Noel's extratropical remnant attained winds of , and it gradually turned to the north-northeast. As the center of Noel approached Nova Scotia, its large circulation produced strong winds across all of Atlantic Canada and New England, and on November 4, the storm tracked across Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

At 6 PM AST (2200 UTC) on November 4, as the storm was over Labrador, the Canadian Hurricane Center declared that Noel had lost all tropical characteristics and changed its designation from post-tropical to extratropical. The extratropical low continued to the northeast and made landfall over southwest Greenland on the afternoon of November 5, bringing tropical storm force winds to the area. Noel's circulation dissipated over Greenland later that night. While its lowest barometric pressure as a tropical system was 980 mb, on November 4, while located near Labrador, it registered a minimum pressure of 966 mb.

Noel's remnants subsequently turned east and crossed the Atlantic Ocean, before merging into the powerful European windstorm Cyclone Tilo, over the Norwegian Sea, on November 7.

Preparations

Caribbean and Bahamas

The San Juan National Weather Service issued widespread flood and flash flood warnings and watches across Puerto Rico. Due to unsettled conditions, officials advised residents to stay out of harm's way and off the roadways. A flash flood warning was issued for the entirety of the United States Virgin Islands.

Upon being classified as a tropical cyclone, the government of Haiti issued a tropical storm warning for the southwestern peninsula from its border with the Dominican Republic westward to Port-au-Prince. By the time Noel made landfall on Haiti, a tropical storm warning was either recommended or put in place for the southern coast of Hispaniola from Barahona, Dominican Republic, to Port-au-Prince, Haiti. In Haiti, Health care centers were advised to activate any emergency plans, and medicine stocks were pre-positioned if needed. Residents in flood-prone areas were evacuated. In the departments of Sud-Est, Sud, Grand'Anse, Nippes, Ouest, Centre and Artibonie, a red alert was issued, while an orange alert was issued for Nord-Est, Nord and Nord-Ouest. In the Dominican Republic, 14,500 people sought protection in shelters. About 1,000 inmates were evacuated from a prison north of the country's capital city. The National Emergency Commission authorized the opening of a number of shelters, and the Dominican Red Cross activated search and rescue teams. The Coordination Centre set up a "crisis room", assigning workers to 24-hour shifts.

A hurricane watch was issued for southeastern Cuba; a tropical storm warning was in effect for the southeastern Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos Islands, and a tropical storm watch was put in place for the central Bahamas. A tropical storm warning was also issued for the northwestern Bahamas. There, most government offices were closed during the passage of the storm. On the island of Andros, residents took extra care in securing their boats. As the storm tracked further to the northwest, a tropical storm warning was put in place for the Cuban provinces of Guantánamo, Holguín, Las Tunas, Ciego de Ávila, and Camagüey. The Cuban Institute of Meteorology advised caution to residents, due to previous heavy rainfall leaving grounds saturated. Several schools were closed during the storm's onslaught. In Camagüey, thousands of cattle were moved to higher ground, and roughly 3,000 students working to harvest coffee crops were forced to return home. A United States Naval base in Guantanamo Bay stacked sandbags to protect structures in areas vulnerable to flooding, namely those in low-lying terrain.

United States and Canada

Late on October 31, the National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for southeastern Florida, as tropical storm force winds were expected to come close to the coastline. Coastal flood warnings, high surf advisories, and high wind warnings were posted for the coastline of Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina as Noel churned offshore in the Atlantic. Similar advisories were placed into effect from Virginia Beach, Virginia to Ocean City, Maryland. A coastal flood watch was issued for parts of New York, including Long Island. As the extratropical storm progressed north, wind advisories were posted along the coast of New England, and a winter storm watch was issued for northern Maine. The Cape Cod and Islands division of the Red Cross opened a number of shelters on Nantucket and along coastal Massachusetts. Stores on Cape Cod were closed; some of them boarded up windows, and the U.S. Coast Guard completed preparations and warned sailors of the storm.

Prior to the arrival of Noel into Atlantic Canada, heavy rain and strong wind warnings were put in place for many locations in southeastern Canada. The Canadian Hurricane Center issued hurricane-force wind warnings for waters to the southwest of the Maritimes and gale warnings for waters elsewhere off of southeastern Canada. The Halifax and Montreal Storm Prediction Centers of the Meteorological Service of Canada issued high winds and heavy rain warning for all the areas of the Maritimes, Newfoundland, Labrador and Eastern Quebec, as well as heavy snow warnings for certain regions. Air Canada canceled 13 of their flights in and out of Halifax. Throughout Nova Scotia, 500 Red Cross volunteers were put on standby.

Impact

Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico

Heavy rainfall fell across the northern Lesser Antilles for several days in association with the precursor disturbance, unofficially reaching over on Saint Croix and Saint Thomas.

The precursor disturbance also dropped heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico for several days, leaving grounds saturated and causing surface runoff. Precipitation peaked at at Carite Lake

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