Hurricane Dean (2007)

Hurricane Dean was the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the most intense North Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Wilma of 2005, tying for eighth overall. Additionally, it made the fourth most intense Atlantic hurricane landfall. A Cape Verde hurricane that formed on August 13, 2007, Dean took a west-northwest path from the eastern Atlantic Ocean through the Saint Lucia Channel and into the Caribbean. It strengthened into a major hurricane, reaching Category 5 status on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale before passing just south of Jamaica on August 20. The storm made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula on August 21 at peak intensity. It crossed the peninsula and emerged into the Bay of Campeche weakened, but still remained a hurricane. It strengthened briefly before making a second landfall near Tecolutla in the Mexican state of Veracruz on August 22. Dean drifted to the northwest, weakening into a remnant low which dissipated uneventfully over the southwestern United States. Dean was the second-most intense tropical cyclone worldwide of 2007 in terms of pressure, only behind Cyclone George in the Australian region, and tied with Felix as the most intense worldwide in terms of 1-minute sustained winds.

The hurricane's intense winds, waves, rains and storm surge were responsible for at least 45 deaths across ten countries and caused estimated damages of US$1.66 billion. First impacting the islands of the Lesser Antilles, Dean's path through the Caribbean devastated agricultural crops, particularly those of Martinique and Jamaica. Upon reaching Mexico, Hurricane Dean was a Category 5 storm, but it missed major population centers and its exceptional Category 5 strength landfall caused no deaths and less damage than in the Caribbean islands it passed as a Category 2 storm.

Through the affected regions, clean up and repair took months to complete. Donations solicited by international aid organizations joined national funds in clearing roads, rebuilding houses, and replanting destroyed crops. In Jamaica, where the damage was worst, banana production did not return to pre-storm levels for over a year. Mexico's tourist industry, too, took almost a year to rebuild its damaged cruise ship infrastructure.

Dean was the first hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic basin at Category 5 intensity since Hurricane Andrew on August 24, 1992. Dean's Category 5 landfall was in a sparsely populated area and thus far less damaging than Andrew's, even though Dean was much larger, but its long swath of damage resulted in its name retirement from the World Meteorological Organization's Atlantic hurricane naming lists.

Meteorological history

On August 11, 2007, a tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa, and, encountering favorable conditions, quickly developed into Tropical Depression Four, about 520 miles (835 km) west-southwest of Cape Verde on August 13. The depression moved briskly westward, and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean at 1500  UTC on August 14. The storm's intensity continued to build although dry air and cooler air inflow from the north were slowing structural development. Ragged bands formed on August 15 and the formation of a partial eyewall was observed later that day.

Intensification continued, and the storm was upgraded to Hurricane Dean at 5 am EDT (0900 UTC) August 16. The deep-layered ridge to the north continued to steer the system west, towards the Caribbean Sea. The storm quickly strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. The storm's development slowed slightly but a reconnaissance aircraft discovered a closed eyewall on August 17 as the storm passed through the Lesser Antilles. Data from the aircraft indicated that Hurricane Dean had strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane and its trailing bands were still over the Lesser Antilles. During the evening of August 17, Dean strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and continued to steadily grow in both size and intensity through the night. On August 18 the presence of a double eyewall was noted, indicating an eyewall replacement cycle and causing short term fluctuations in intensity. These fluctuations did not affect the storm's well defined satellite presentation. Operationally, Dean was thought to have only been a Category 4 on the 18th, but post-storm analysis shows that Dean had become a 165 miles per hour (265 km/h) Category 5 on that day. Dean weakened very slightly on the morning of August 19 as it finished the eyewall replacement cycle and began to interact with the island of Jamaica.

Hurricane Dean passed south of Jamaica on the evening of August 19 and began to intensify again that night. Its eyewall replacement cycle was thought to be completed. A concentric eyewall was briefly observed again on the morning of August 20, but did not last long. The hurricane, still tracking west-northwest under the influence of a strengthening deep-layered high-pressure system to the north, moved over waters with extremely high heat content and began to strengthen once again. The eyewall became even better defined during the day, and, at 8:35 pm AST on August 20 (0035 August 21, UTC), Dean restrengthened to a Category 5 hurricane, the highest rating on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. It made landfall as a Category 5 storm in Quintana Roo's Costa Maya region, 40 mi (65 km) northeast of the border between Mexico and Belize, and weakened on its way over land, reemerging on the western side of Yucatán as a Category 1 storm. Dean regained strength as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, and made its second landfall as a Category 2 storm on August 22, at around 11:30 CDT, near Tecolutla, Veracruz, to the south of Tuxpan, where after it moved westward, losing strength and disintegrating over central Mexico. A small remnant circulation reached the Pacific Ocean, eventually moving northwestward around an anticyclone, roughly parallel to the Mexican coast and finally back inland over the southwestern United States, where it completely dissipated on August 27.

Preparations

Hurricane Dean's smooth and well-predicted track gave unusually advance warning to all of the nations in its path and allowed them time to prepare for the storm's impact.

Lesser Antilles

As Hurricane Dean approached the Lesser Antilles the local meteorological services issued watches and warnings, advising residents to prepare for the storm. Hurricane warnings were issued for St. Lucia, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe and its dependencies. Hurricane watches were issued for Saba and St. Eustatius. Tropical storm warnings were issued for Barbados, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and St. Maarten St. Vincent and the Grenadines, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. Tropical storm watches were issued for Sint Maarten, St. Vincent, Grenada and its dependencies, Montserrat, and Anguilla.

Local authorities closed airports, set up shelters, and readied emergency service personnel. Authorities in Martinique canceled a memorial to the victims of West Caribbean Airways Flight 708 and began to set up shelters. In Dominica, tourists were evacuated to concrete shelters and the vast majority of foreign medical students from the Ross University School of Medicine evacuated the island. The government of Dominica also canceled leave for emergency service personnel and evacuated Princess Margret Hospital, fearing that its roof might be vulnerable to the storm's winds. Martinique's main airport and both of St. Lucia's commercial airports closed when the last airplanes landed on the night of August 16 and the storm's outer rainbands began to sweep over the island.

In anticipation of Dean's significant damage, several emergency response groups gathered funds and readied personnel. On August 14 the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) placed its Regional Response Mechanism on standby and contacted the National Disaster Coordinators of all member states in the Lesser Antilles. On August 15 the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) dispatched teams to Barbados, Dominica, and St. Kitts in advance of the hurricane to provide damage assessment should the hurricane affect those islands. The Eastern Caribbean Donor Group convened a meeting on August 16 under the Chair of the Resident Representative United Nations Development Programme Barbados in anticipation that member states would require international assistance.

Greater Antilles

Hurricane warnings were issued for all of Jamaica, for Haiti from Port-au-Prince to the Dominican border, and for the Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Haitian border. Tropical Storm warnings were issued for the rest of Hispaniola and for coastal Cuba between Camagüey and Guantánamo. Hundreds of thousands were evacuated from vulnerable low-lying and coastal areas and disaster management programs were activated throughout the Greater Antilles.

Jamaica, which was forecast to bear the brunt of Hurricane Dean, underwent the most extensive preparations. The Jamaican government executed long-standing evacuation plans, including converting the country's national arena into a shelter and relocating inmates from two maximum security prisons. Political parties in the island suspended their campaigning for the August 27 national elections, to allow residents to prepare for the storm. Curfews were put in place for parts of the island, while off-duty essential personnel were called back to work. More than 1,000 schools and churches were converted to emergency shelters, but residents only occupied 47 of them before the storm's arrival. Evidently the country's high crime rate led islanders to fear for their belongings should they abandon their homes. UNICEF prepared 4 emergency health kits and 1,000 water containers and Copa Airlines agreed to fly the supplies to Jamaica on its scheduled August 22 flight, if possible. The World Food Program prepared food stocks in nearby Haiti, ready to move them to Jamaica if they were needed. The United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) team tried to reach Jamaica, but only one member arrived before all incoming flights were canceled. The United States confirmed that it would offer aid if it was needed, and the North-West Caribbean Donor Group met to decide what actions would need to be taken.

The island of Hispaniola was also predicted to be heavily affected by the storm. Workers from World Vision supplied food, clean water, medicines and emergency generators in the southern provinces of the Dominican Republic, and in the southern departments of Haiti where hurricane warnings had been issued. In low-lying areas, 1,580 residents of the Dominican Republic and more than 1,000 Haitians were evacuated as the storm approached. Small craft were advised to stay in port, while Haiti's Toussaint Louverture International Airport was closed.

The Cayman Islands were expected to suffer badly if Hurricane Dean passed too close, and mandatory evacuations were instigated for the low-lying Little Cayman. Tourists were forbidden from entering the island and extra flights were added to evacuate those that were already there. Schools and civic centers were converted to shelters on Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac, and, despite the mandatory evacuation, one shelter was opened on Little Cayman for the residents who remained there. Expecting catastrophic damage, two Royal Navy ships of the Atlantic Patrol Task (North), and RFA ''Wave Ruler'', followed 150 mi (240 km) behind the storm in order to arrive at Cayman as soon after the hurricane as possible.

Cuba and Puerto Rico, neither of which were expected to experience the worst of Dean's strength, prepared more modestly. Cuba's Civil Defense evacuated 350,000 people from the coastal provinces. The government in Havana suspended all tourist programs ahead of the storm. Soldiers and emergency officials were prepared to convert schools and other government buildings into temporary shelters, but stood down when it became evident that they would not needed. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) deployed a five-member team to Puerto Rico ahead of Hurricane Dean. They were equipped with satellite communication systems to provide video-teleconferencing and help make real-time assessments of any damage.

Mexico

With Hurricane Dean's path predicted well in advance of the storm, the Government of Mexico was able to make ample preparations. On August 17, a state of emergency was declared for the state of Quintana Roo where Dean was expected to make landfall. On August 18 authorities began evacuating tourists and those residents living in the most vulnerable parts of Quintana Roo. The state government set up storm shelters in schools and other public buildings. With emergency supplies at the ready, the state of Yucatán, Quintana Roo's neighbour to the northwest, declared a green alert. On August 19 a hurricane watch was issued on the Yucatán Peninsula from Chetumal to San Felipe and residents made their last-minute preparations.

Belize

A hurricane warning was issued for the coastal locations north of Belize City with the forecast of 150 mph (240 km/h) winds. The government instituted a dusk-to-dawn curfew from Belize City to the Mexican border. On August 16 and 17, Prime Minister Said Musa chaired two meetings of Belize's National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO). He instructed the newly created Coastguard to evacuate popular tourist sites Caye Caulker and Ambergris Caye by boat and plane. Authorities also evacuated Belize City's three hospitals, moving high-risk patients inland to the capital Belmopan. The mayor urged residents to leave Belize City and to make use of shelters in the capital.

The United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination team dispatched two members to Belize City and the rest of the team traveled to Belmopan. Government supplies were stored in Orange Walk, Corozal ready for post-storm relief. Essential equipment from the Red Cross and the Pan American Health Organization was stored in the elevated UNICEF building and the Belize City UN building was converted to a crisis center.

Gulf of Mexico

Oil futures spiked on August 15 as analysts considered the impact of Hurricane Dean on refining capacity if it were to move into the Caribbean as predicted. Transocean evacuated 11 nonessential workers late on August 15 from an oil rig located about 160 mi (260 km) southeast of New Orleans