Helmut Norpoth (born 1943) is an American political scientist and professor of political science at
Stony Brook University
Stony Brook University (SBU), officially the State University of New York at Stony Brook, is a public research university in Stony Brook, New York. Along with the University at Buffalo, it is one of the State University of New York system' ...
. Norpoth is best known for developing the Primary Model to predict US presidential elections.
Education and career
Norpoth received his undergraduate degree from the
Free University of Berlin
The Free University of Berlin (, often abbreviated as FU Berlin or simply FU) is a public research university in Berlin, Germany. It is consistently ranked among Germany's best universities, with particular strengths in political science and t ...
in
Germany
Germany,, officially the Federal Republic of Germany, is a country in Central Europe. It is the second most populous country in Europe after Russia, and the most populous member state of the European Union. Germany is situated betwee ...
in 1966. He then attended the
University of Michigan
, mottoeng = "Arts, Knowledge, Truth"
, former_names = Catholepistemiad, or University of Michigania (1817–1821)
, budget = $10.3 billion (2021)
, endowment = $17 billion (2021)As o ...
, where he received his M.A. and Ph.D. in 1967 and 1974, respectively. Before joining Stony Brook University as an assistant professor in 1979, he taught at the
University of Arizona
The University of Arizona (Arizona, U of A, UArizona, or UA) is a Public university, public Land-grant university, land-grant research university in Tucson, Arizona. Founded in 1885 by the 13th Arizona Territorial Legislature, it was the first ...
(visiting lecturer in the Political Science Department in 1978), the
University of Cologne
The University of Cologne (german: Universität zu Köln) is a university in Cologne, Germany. It was established in the year 1388 and is one of the most prestigious and research intensive universities in Germany. It was the sixth university to ...
, and the
University of Texas
The University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin, UT, or Texas) is a public research university in Austin, Texas. It was founded in 1883 and is the oldest institution in the University of Texas System. With 40,916 undergraduate students, 11,075 ...
. In 1980, he was promoted to associate professor at Stony Brook University, and became a tenured full professor there in 1985.
Research
Norpoth's research focuses on multiple subjects in
political science
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and ...
, including
public opinion
Public opinion is the collective opinion on a specific topic or voting intention relevant to a society. It is the people's views on matters affecting them.
Etymology
The term "public opinion" was derived from the French ', which was first use ...
and
electoral behavior, and predicting the results of elections in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany. Norpoth's Primary Model has successfully matched the results of 25 out of 28 US Presidential elections since 1912, with the exceptions being those in 1960, 2000, and 2020.
"Primary Model" for U.S. presidential elections
Norpoth developed the Primary Model, a statistical model of United States presidential elections based on data going back to 1912. The ''Primary Model'' is based on two factors: whether the party that has been in power for a long time seems to be about to lose it, and whether a given candidate did better in the
primaries
Primary elections, or direct primary are a voting process by which voters can indicate their preference for their party's candidate, or a candidate in general, in an upcoming general election, local election, or by-election. Depending on the c ...
than his or her opponent. The model was first used in the 1996 election.
Recent misses
2016
In February 2015, Norpoth projected that Republicans had a 65 percent chance of winning the general election the following year. In 2016, this model gained significant media attention because it predicted that
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
would win the general election. In response to critics who cited polls in which Clinton led Trump by a significant margin, Norpoth said that these polls were not taking into account who will actually vote in November, writing, "…nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."
Despite the attention for predicting Donald Trump would win in 2016, Norpoth's model only said that Donald Trump would win the two-party popular vote with 52.5%. Donald Trump actually lost the 2016 two party popular vote with 48.9%.
2020
On March 2, 2020, Norpoth stated that his model gave Trump a 91% chance at winning re-election. His model also predicted that Trump would win with up to 362 electoral votes. This would have required Trump to have flipped several Clinton states from 2016.
However, this prediction proved to be inaccurate. Trump did not flip any states Clinton won in 2016, and ended up losing 5 states plus one electoral vote in Nebraska that he won in 2016, ultimately losing the election with 232 electoral votes to Joe Biden's 306 electoral votes.
Norpoth cited a "perfect storm" of subsequent surprise events following his prediction that were not taken into account, notably the
COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
The COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is a part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the United States, it has resulted in confir ...
which led to lockdowns, beginning only a few weeks after his prediction, and an economic downturn, which was not improved due to perceived inadequate response by the President. The pandemic also led to an increase in mail-in and absentee ballots, which would lean toward the Democratic candidate.
Civil unrest
Civil disorder, also known as civil disturbance, civil unrest, or social unrest is a situation arising from a mass act of civil disobedience (such as a demonstration, riot, strike, or unlawful assembly) in which law enforcement has difficulty ...
over the
murder of George Floyd
On , George Floyd, a 46-year-old black man, was murdered in the U.S. city of Minneapolis by Derek Chauvin, a 44-year-old white police officer. Floyd had been arrested on suspicion of using a counterfeit $20 bill. Chauvin knelt on Floyd's ...
on May 25, 2020 was also cited as a factor.
Primary Model
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References
External links
Primary Model
{{DEFAULTSORT:Norpoth, Helmut
Stony Brook University faculty
1943 births
Living people
American political scientists
Free University of Berlin alumni
University of Michigan alumni
University of Texas faculty
Academic staff of the University of Cologne