{{Unreferenced, date=October 2012
Health forecasting is a new health care discipline initiated by the Met Office when Dr William Bird, a GP, became its first clinical director in 2002. It is currently the subject of an innovative project run jointly by the
Met Office
The Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and is led by CEO Penelope E ...
and the
National Health Service
The National Health Service (NHS) is the umbrella term for the publicly funded healthcare systems of the United Kingdom (UK). Since 1948, they have been funded out of general taxation. There are three systems which are referred to using the " ...
(NHS) in the
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom (UK) or Britain, is a country in Europe, off the north-western coast of the continental mainland. It comprises England, Scotland, Wales and North ...
.
The natural environment affects human health. There are many cases in which the weather has a direct or indirect effect on the health of an individual. These include:
* Heat, which can cause up to a 30% increase in mortality amongst the elderly and very young. Prevention can save lives.
* Cold, which contributes to 30–40 thousand deaths each winter. Prevention consists of keeping active, eating well, dressing up appropriately, especially hat, gloves and coat when outside and keeping the indoor temperature at 21C.
*
Thunderstorms
A thunderstorm, also known as an electrical storm or a lightning storm, is a storm characterized by the presence of lightning and its acoustic effect on the Earth's atmosphere, known as thunder. Relatively weak thunderstorms are someti ...
, which can cause
asthma
Asthma is a long-term inflammatory disease of the airways of the lungs. It is characterized by variable and recurring symptoms, reversible airflow obstruction, and easily triggered bronchospasms. Symptoms include episodes of wheezing, cou ...
epidemics if they occur during high levels of either pollen or fungal spores in the summer.
* Low boundary layers, which may increase the way viruses are transmitted by increasing the amount of stagnant air.
Health forecasts help professionals and patients know when and where there is a risk of illness. Through this understanding, preventative action can be taken and health care capacity (i.e. hospitals and doctors) managed to reduce illness and death.
The main strand of the health forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation for people with
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a type of progressive lung disease characterized by long-term respiratory symptoms and airflow limitation. The main symptoms include shortness of breath and a cough, which may or may not produce ...
(COPD). COPD health forecasts are used to drive the provision of anticipatory care to people with COPD, helping them achieve their potential for independence and wellbeing. The service is being run in around 30
primary care trust
Primary care trusts (PCTs) were part of the National Health Service in England from 2001 to 2013. PCTs were largely administrative bodies, responsible for commissioning primary, community and secondary health services from providers. Until 31 May ...
s with over 20,000 patient registered to receive alerts. In many areas alerts are provided by an automated interactive telephone. Evidence from several evaluations of the service has shown around a 20% reduction in COPD related emergency admissions for practices using the service.
On 26 February 2007, the project won in the Innovative Service Award category at the Health and Social Care Awards 2006. The Health and Social Care Awards are run annually in partnership between the Department of Health and the NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement and are the most important opportunity within the NHS and social care to identify, recognise and reward excellence in the provision of care at the front line. The specific award recognises an innovative, new or improved service that is benefiting the delivery of health care for patients, users and carers.
In 2011 the
Shanghai Meteorological Service
Shanghai (; , , Standard Mandarin pronunciation: ) is one of the four direct-administered municipalities of the People's Republic of China (PRC). The city is located on the southern estuary of the Yangtze River, with the Huangpu River flowin ...
and
Shanghai Municipal Public Health Bureau
Shanghai (; , , Standard Mandarin pronunciation: ) is one of the four direct-administered municipalities of the People's Republic of China (PRC). The city is located on the southern estuary of the Yangtze River, with the Huangpu River flowin ...
jointly launched a health meteorological service that includes health forecasting for conditions such as colds, asthma, COPD and a heat health warning service. This will be developed based on a considerable amount of research to provide a service to improve healthcare in Shanghai.