The Hayward Fault Zone is a right-lateral strike-slip
geologic fault
In geology, a fault is a planar fracture or discontinuity in a volume of rock across which there has been significant displacement as a result of rock-mass movements. Large faults within Earth's crust result from the action of plate tectonic ...
zone capable of generating destructive
earthquake
An earthquake (also known as a quake, tremor or temblor) is the shaking of the surface of the Earth resulting from a sudden release of energy in the Earth's lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, from ...
s. This fault is about long, situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of
San Francisco Bay
San Francisco Bay is a large tidal estuary in the U.S. state of California, and gives its name to the San Francisco Bay Area. It is dominated by the big cities of San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland.
San Francisco Bay drains water from a ...
. It runs through densely populated areas, including
Richmond
Richmond most often refers to:
* Richmond, Virginia, the capital of Virginia, United States
* Richmond, London, a part of London
* Richmond, North Yorkshire, a town in England
* Richmond, British Columbia, a city in Canada
* Richmond, California, ...
,
El Cerrito,
Berkeley
Berkeley most often refers to:
*Berkeley, California, a city in the United States
**University of California, Berkeley, a public university in Berkeley, California
* George Berkeley (1685–1753), Anglo-Irish philosopher
Berkeley may also refer ...
,
Oakland
Oakland is the largest city and the county seat of Alameda County, California, United States. A major West Coast port, Oakland is the largest city in the East Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area, the third largest city overall in the Bay A ...
,
San Leandro
San Leandro (Spanish for " St. Leander") is a city in Alameda County, California, United States. It is located in the East Bay of the San Francisco Bay Area; between Oakland to the northwest, and Ashland, Castro Valley, and Hayward to the sout ...
,
Castro Valley
Castro Valley is a census-designated place (CDP) in Alameda County, California, United States. At the 2010 census, it was the fifth most populous unincorporated area in California and the twenty-third most populous in the United States. The popula ...
,
Hayward,
Union City,
Fremont, and
San Jose.
The Hayward Fault is parallel to the
San Andreas Fault
The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly through California. It forms the tectonics, tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its motion is Fault (geology)#Strike-slip fau ...
, which lies offshore and through the
San Francisco Peninsula
The San Francisco Peninsula is a peninsula in the San Francisco Bay Area that separates San Francisco Bay from the Pacific Ocean. On its northern tip is the City and County of San Francisco. Its southern base is Mountain View, south of Palo A ...
. To the east of the Hayward Fault lies the
Calaveras Fault
The Calaveras Fault is a major branch of the San Andreas Fault System that is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area. Activity on the different segments of the fault includes moderate and large earthquakes as well as aseismi ...
. In 2007, the Hayward Fault was discovered to have merged with the Calaveras Fault east of San Jose at a depth of , with the potential of creating earthquakes much larger than previously anticipated. Some geologists have suggested that the Southern Calaveras should be renamed as the Southern Hayward.
North of
San Pablo Bay
San Pablo Bay is a tidal estuary that forms the northern extension of San Francisco Bay in the East Bay and North Bay regions of the San Francisco Bay Area in northern California.
Most of the Bay is shallow; however, there is a deep water ch ...
is the Rodgers Creek Fault, which was shown in 2016 to be linked with the Hayward Fault under San Pablo Bay to form a combined Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault that is long, stretching from north of Healdsburg through Santa Rosa down to Alum Rock in San Jose.
Another fault further north, the
Maacama Fault
The Maacama Fault is a right lateral-moving (dextral) geologic fault located in the Coast Ranges of northwestern California. It is considered to be the northernmost segment of the Hayward Fault subsystem of the San Andreas Fault zone. Creep
Cre ...
, is also considered to be part of the "Hayward Fault subsystem".
While the San Andreas Fault is the principal
transform boundary
A transform fault or transform boundary, is a fault along a plate boundary where the motion is predominantly horizontal. It ends abruptly where it connects to another plate boundary, either another transform, a spreading ridge, or a subductio ...
between the
Pacific Plate
The Pacific Plate is an oceanic tectonic plate that lies beneath the Pacific Ocean. At , it is the largest tectonic plate.
The plate first came into existence 190 million years ago, at the triple junction between the Farallon, Phoenix, and Iza ...
and the
North American Plate
The North American Plate is a tectonic plate covering most of North America, Cuba, the Bahamas, extreme northeastern Asia, and parts of Iceland and the Azores. With an area of , it is the Earth's second largest tectonic plate, behind the Pacific ...
, the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault takes up its share of the overall displacement of the two plates.
Tectonic setting
The
Pacific Plate
The Pacific Plate is an oceanic tectonic plate that lies beneath the Pacific Ocean. At , it is the largest tectonic plate.
The plate first came into existence 190 million years ago, at the triple junction between the Farallon, Phoenix, and Iza ...
is a major section of the Earth's crust, gradually
expanding by the eruption of
magma
Magma () is the molten or semi-molten natural material from which all igneous rocks are formed. Magma is found beneath the surface of the Earth, and evidence of magmatism has also been discovered on other terrestrial planets and some natural sa ...
along the
East Pacific Rise
The East Pacific Rise is a mid-ocean rise (termed an oceanic rise and not a mid-ocean ridge due to its higher rate of spreading that results in less elevation increase and more regular terrain), a divergent tectonic plate boundary located along ...
to the southeast. It is also being subducted far to the northwest into the
Aleutian Trench
The Aleutian Trench (or Aleutian Trough) is an oceanic trench along a convergent plate boundary which runs along the southern coastline of Alaska and the Aleutian islands. The trench extends for from a triple junction in the west with the Ulakh ...
. In California, the plate is sliding northwestward along a
transform boundary
A transform fault or transform boundary, is a fault along a plate boundary where the motion is predominantly horizontal. It ends abruptly where it connects to another plate boundary, either another transform, a spreading ridge, or a subductio ...
, the
San Andreas Fault
The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly through California. It forms the tectonics, tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its motion is Fault (geology)#Strike-slip fau ...
, toward the subduction zone. At the same time, the
North American Plate
The North American Plate is a tectonic plate covering most of North America, Cuba, the Bahamas, extreme northeastern Asia, and parts of Iceland and the Azores. With an area of , it is the Earth's second largest tectonic plate, behind the Pacific ...
is moving southwestward relative to the Earth's core, but southeastward relative to the Pacific Plate, due to the latter's much faster northwestward motion. The westward component of the North American Plate's motion results in some compressive force along the San Andreas and its associated faults, thus helping lift the
Pacific Coast Ranges
The Pacific Coast Ranges (officially gazetted as the Pacific Mountain System in the United States) are the series of mountain ranges that stretch along the West Coast of North America from Alaska south to Northern and Central Mexico. Although the ...
and other parallel inland ranges to the west of the
Central Valley, in this region most notably the
Diablo Range
The Diablo Range is a mountain range in the California Coast Ranges subdivision of the Pacific Coast Ranges in northern California, United States. It stretches from the eastern San Francisco Bay area at its northern end to the Salinas Valley are ...
. The Hayward Fault shares the same relative motions of the San Andreas. As with portions of other faults, a large extent of the Hayward Fault trace is formed from a narrow complex zone of deformation which can span hundreds of feet in width.
The transform boundary defined by the San Andreas Fault is not perfectly straight, and the stresses between the Pacific and North American Plates are diffused over a wide region of the West, extending as far as the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The Hayward Fault is one of the secondary faults in this diffuse zone, along with the
Calaveras Fault
The Calaveras Fault is a major branch of the San Andreas Fault System that is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area. Activity on the different segments of the fault includes moderate and large earthquakes as well as aseismi ...
to the east and the
San Gregorio Fault
The San Gregorio Fault is an active, 209 km (130 mi) long Fault (geology), fault located off the coast of Northern California. The southern end of the fault is in southern Monterey Bay, and the northern end is about 20 km northwest ...
, west of the San Andreas.
The complete fault zone, including the Rodgers Creek fault, is divided by seismologists into three segments – Rodgers Creek, Northern Hayward, and Southern Hayward. It is expected that these segments may fail singly or in adjacent pairs, creating earthquakes of varying magnitude. The
Association of Bay Area Governments
The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) is a regional planning agency incorporating various local governments in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. It encompasses nine counties surrounding the San Francisco Bay. Those counties are ...
(ABAG) in concert with other government agencies has sponsored the analysis of local conditions and the preparation of maps indicative of the destructive potential of these earthquakes. The various ABAG maps shown below represent some of the more likely possible combinations.
While there are indications that a substantial earthquake on a nearby parallel fault can release stress and so also decrease the near-term probability of an earthquake, the opposite appears to be true concerning sequential segments. A release on a major segment can substantially increase the likelihood of an earthquake on an adjacent fault segment, increasing the likelihood of two major regional earthquakes within a period of a few months.
Rodgers Creek Fault Zone
![Cooper Creek spring on Hayward fault](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/55/Cooper_Creek_spring_on_Hayward_fault.jpg)
The connection between the Rodgers Creek Fault Zone and the Hayward Fault Zone was unclear until 2015 when a survey of the floor of San Pablo Bay found that the ends of the two faults were smoothly linked between
Point Pinole
Point Pinole Regional Shoreline is a regional park on the shores of the San Pablo Bay, California (the northern arm of the San Francisco Bay), in the United States. It is approximately in area, and is operated by the East Bay Regional Park Dis ...
and
Lower Tubbs Island. An alternate prior hypothesis suggested that the Hayward Fault and Rodgers Creek Fault were probably connected by a series of ''en echelon'' fault strands beneath San Pablo Bay. The new finding means that the Rodgers-Hayward system together could produce a quake with a magnitude as high as 7.2. It is also considered possible that a major seismic event on either fault may involve movement on the other, either concurrently or within an interval of up to several months. The
Association of Bay Area Governments
The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) is a regional planning agency incorporating various local governments in the San Francisco Bay Area in California. It encompasses nine counties surrounding the San Francisco Bay. Those counties are ...
has prepared ground shaking maps that include a possible concurrent scenario (these are shown below).
In October 2016, scientists found definitive evidence that the Rodgers Creek Fault and the Hayward Fault are linked together under San Pablo Bay. A simultaneous rupture of the connected Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault – about 118 mi (190 km) long from just north of Healdsburg down to Alum Rock in San Jose – could result in a major earthquake of magnitude 7.4 that "would cause extensive damage and loss of life with global economic impact".
It has been suggested that the name "Rodgers Creek Fault" be retired and that the entire 118 mi (190 km) fault be known as the "Hayward Fault".
Calaveras Fault
The Calaveras Fault is continuous from the
Sunol area south to
Hollister. It was long believed that there was no connection between the Hayward Fault and the Calaveras, but geological studies (particularly the examination of very small and deep earthquakes) suggest that the two may be connected. If true, this link would have significant implications for the potential maximum strength of earthquakes on the Hayward, since this strength is determined by the maximum length of the fault rupture and this rupture could extend beyond the juncture point and so include some portion of the Calaveras. (This potential is not shown in the shake intensity maps shown below.)
Earthquakes
The largest quake on the Hayward Fault in ''recorded'' history occurred in 1868, with an estimated
magnitude
Magnitude may refer to:
Mathematics
*Euclidean vector, a quantity defined by both its magnitude and its direction
*Magnitude (mathematics), the relative size of an object
*Norm (mathematics), a term for the size or length of a vector
*Order of ...
of 7.0. It occurred on the southern segment of the fault, receiving its name (some decades later) from the nascent town of
Hayward where it was determined the quake's epicenter was located. However, the 1868 quake caused much damage throughout the then sparsely settled Bay Area, including the city of San Francisco. In fact, the 1868 event became known as the "Great San Francisco earthquake" until the larger tremor in 1906.
Many seismologists believe that the
1906 San Francisco earthquake
At 05:12 Pacific Standard Time on Wednesday, April 18, 1906, the coast of Northern California was struck by a major earthquake with an estimated moment magnitude of 7.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (''Extreme''). High-intensity sha ...
, which occurred on the San Andreas fault, reduced the stress on many faults in the Bay Area including the Hayward fault, creating an "earthquake shadow": a quiescent period following a major earthquake. Since the 1906 San Andreas event there have been no moderately strong earthquakes on the Hayward fault as were seen before that earthquake. It also appears likely that this quiet period in the earthquake shadow is ending, as projected by the rate of plate motion and the stress state of other faults in the region.
The 1868 earthquake occurred well before the
East Bay
The East Bay is the eastern region of the San Francisco Bay Area and includes cities along the eastern shores of the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay. The region has grown to include inland communities in Alameda and Contra Costa countie ...
region was extensively urbanized. The following year, in 1869, the William Meek Estate became one of the first developments in the area, built on 3,000 acres (12 km²) in what became known as the Cherryland district of Eden Township. Recent renovations of the Meek Mansion have revealed that with the 1868 earthquake still fresh in minds of residents of the time, some unusual diagonal bracing was built into the original construction. Although its magnitude was less than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the intensity of shaking experienced in the Hayward area may have been greater than in 1906 due to the proximity of the Hayward Fault.
Earlier earthquakes have been detected by trench exposure and associated
radiocarbon dating
Radiocarbon dating (also referred to as carbon dating or carbon-14 dating) is a method for determining the age of an object containing organic material by using the properties of radiocarbon, a radioactive isotope of carbon.
The method was dev ...
. Combined with the historic record, the last five major events were in 1315, 1470, 1630, 1725, and 1868, which have intervals of about 140 years (note that 2018 is 150 years from the major 1868 event). The longest time was the 160-year period between 1470 and 1630. In 2028, it will have been 160 years since the 1868 event.
Probability of future activity
United States Geological Survey
The United States Geological Survey (USGS), formerly simply known as the Geological Survey, is a scientific agency of the United States government. The scientists of the USGS study the landscape of the United States, its natural resources, ...
(USGS) scientists state that a major earthquake occurring on the zone is "increasingly likely".
When the next major earthquake occurs on the fault, damage will be catastrophic. More than 1.5 trillion
U.S. dollars
The United States dollar (symbol: $; code: USD; also abbreviated US$ or U.S. Dollar, to distinguish it from other dollar-denominated currencies; referred to as the dollar, U.S. dollar, American dollar, or colloquially buck) is the official ...
in property exists in the affected area, and more than 165 billion US dollars in damage would likely result if the 1868 earthquake were to reoccur. Since the fault runs through heavily populated areas, more than 5 million would be affected directly. Water could be cut off to 2.4 million people living in California's
San Francisco Bay Area
The San Francisco Bay Area, often referred to as simply the Bay Area, is a populous region surrounding the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Suisun Bay estuaries in Northern California. The Bay Area is defined by the Association of Bay Area Go ...
.
[
For the thirty years following 2014, the probability of there being one or more magnitude 6.7+ earthquakes on the Hayward Fault during that time frame was estimated at 14.3 percent.] This is compared to 6.4 percent for the San Andreas Fault, which can have larger earthquakes but is farther away from a significant portion of the urbanized parts of the Bay Area. Earlier (January 2008) assessments suggest that the Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults may be more likely to fail in the next few decades than previously thought.[
The 140th anniversary of the 1868 event was in 2008, and the average time between the last five major events is also averaged at 140 years. Recent estimates of the damage potential of a major Hayward Fault earthquake by a professional risk management firm indicate the potential for huge economic losses, of which only a small percentage is insured against earth movement. (Earthquake insurance is not only quite expensive, it tends to be burdened with large deductibles – at least 15 percent).
Depending upon seasonal weather conditions at the time of a major event a seismic event could be followed by urban wildfires compounded by damage to water systems or massive landslides in saturated soils. In addition to direct damage the effects on commerce due to damaged infrastructure would also be substantial. Experience with large area urban destruction such as caused by earthquake, hurricane, and firestorms has shown that complete rebuilding can take up to a decade, owing to various factors.
The progressively more severe reports and estimates of event probability and consequences have awakened a broad interest in training people for emergency response. It is becoming widely understood that professional fire fighting, police, and medical services will be overwhelmed by a major event and that neighbors will have to assist each other as best they can. Several jurisdictions in the affected area have implemented volunteer Community emergency response team programs to augment the professional response services.
In 2012, USGS scientists said the fault was due for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake, with the California Geological Survey concurring, stating they believe there is a 31 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or greater along the Rodgers Creek-Hayward Fault in the next 30 years.
In March 2015, the United States Geological Survey released "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System". The UCERF3 represents the best available science to date, and it now considers "multifault ruptures" and "fault readiness", in addition to historical seismicity, in the calculus of earthquake forecasting. The upshot, for those who live in the San Francisco Bay Area, is that experts say there is a 72% chance of experiencing a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake before 2045. Moreover, they had a 51% chance of a M≥7 (threshold to be considered a "major" quake), a 20% chance of a M≥7.5 and a 4% chance of a M≥8 (a "great" quake) when all the mapped faults in the region are taken in to account.]
Fault effects
Fault creep
The surface of the fault is creeping at less than 0.5 cm (0.2 in) per year in the regions of concern. Extreme southern regions of the fault are creeping more quickly, perhaps sufficiently to prevent fault rupture there, but mostly the creep is insufficient to relieve the accumulating forces upon most of the fault and so will not prevent a large earthquake. The creep is sufficient to displace roads, curbs, and sidewalks and so visibly reveal the surface trace in many locations. Creep damage to asphalt road surfaces will usually appear as a series of echelon cracks Echelon cracks are a related series of cracks in a planar structure and are a response to shearing forces in the plane of the surface. Such cracks are typically found in asphalt roadways due to aseismic creep and in other planar structures such as w ...
. Creep effects may be seen also in older structures crossing the fault, some of which have been fitted with expansion joints to accommodate this slow motion.
Earthquake shaking
The magnitude of an earthquake, as indicated on a seismic scale
Seismic magnitude scales are used to describe the overall strength or "size" of an earthquake. These are distinguished from seismic intensity scales that categorize the intensity or severity of ground shaking (quaking) caused by an earthquake at ...
, is roughly proportional to the length of the rupture, while the ground motion
Ground motion is the movement of the earth's surface from earthquakes or explosions. Ground motion is produced by seismic waves that are generated by sudden slip on a fault or sudden pressure at the explosive source and travel through the earth a ...
in the region surrounding the fault is highly dependent upon the local soil conditions, somewhat upon the distance and relationship to the progression of the fault rupture, and (as recently recognized in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake) reflected energy from deep discontinuities in the Earth's structure. The area affected by an earthquake is also dependent upon the density and uniformity of the soils surrounding the fault.
Image:RogersCrkNorthHayward.gif, Combined Rodgers Creek and northern Hayward fault slip, magnitude
Magnitude may refer to:
Mathematics
*Euclidean vector, a quantity defined by both its magnitude and its direction
*Magnitude (mathematics), the relative size of an object
*Norm (mathematics), a term for the size or length of a vector
*Order of ...
7.1
Image:NorthHaywardShake.gif, Northern Hayward fault slip, magnitude 6.5 *
Image:SouthHaywardShake.gif, Southern Hayward fault slip, magnitude 6.7 *
:*Recent examination of damage reports from the 1868 event suggest that the rupture over only portions of the Northern and Southern Hayward fault could generate a magnitude 7.0 event, far more powerful than either the 6.5 event shown here or the 6.7 previously recognized as a likely maximum.
:''The terms used by ABAG for shaking intensity differ from the official descriptions of the Mercalli intensity scale
The Modified Mercalli intensity scale (MM, MMI, or MCS), developed from Giuseppe Mercalli's Mercalli intensity scale of 1902, is a seismic intensity scale used for measuring the intensity of shaking produced by an earthquake. It measures the eff ...
, being somewhat softened (perhaps due to the extensive local experience with earthquakes), with terms such as "Rather Strong" becoming "Light", and "Ruinous" and "Disastrous" becoming variations of "Violent".
Bayside soil conditions
The Hayward fault is considered to be particularly dangerous due to the poor soil conditions in the alluvial plain
An alluvial plain is a largely flat landform created by the deposition of sediment over a long period of time by one or more rivers coming from highland regions, from which alluvial soil forms. A floodplain is part of the process, being the sma ...
that drops from the East Bay Hills to the eastern shoreline of San Francisco Bay
San Francisco Bay is a large tidal estuary in the U.S. state of California, and gives its name to the San Francisco Bay Area. It is dominated by the big cities of San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland.
San Francisco Bay drains water from a ...
. At the lower elevations near the bay the soil is mostly water saturated mud and sand, placed in the early 20th century as fill in marsh areas. This soil tends to amplify the effects of an earthquake and so producing significantly greater ground motion. Additionally, the soil itself can fail, turning into a liquid mud from the agitation, a mud unable to support buildings erected upon once-firm soil. This region is also covered with dense low-rise urban development, most of which was built soon after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake
At 05:12 Pacific Standard Time on Wednesday, April 18, 1906, the coast of Northern California was struck by a major earthquake with an estimated moment magnitude of 7.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (''Extreme''). High-intensity sha ...
, and long before even moderately earthquake resistant construction practices had been developed in the late 1920s.
Further improvement in the construction of resistant structures and the development of retrofitting method have only recently been developed, largely in response to the effects of the 1971 Sylmar
Sylmar is a suburban neighborhood in the San Fernando Valley and is the northernmost neighborhood within the City of Los Angeles. Historically known for its profusion of sylvan olive orchards, Sylmar can trace its past to the 18th century and th ...
, 1989 Loma Prieta
Loma Prieta (from Spanish ''loma'' -hill, ''prieta'' -dark) is high and is the highest peak in the Santa Cruz Mountains in Northern California.
Although the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was named for this mountain, the actual epicenter was fi ...
, and 1994 Northridge events in California – none of which were hugely catastrophic, but each of which caused loss of life in structures not thought to be vulnerable, and so increased public, engineering, and government awareness of the need for specific remediations and construction methods required for improved life safety.
Although many structures have undergone seismic retrofit
Seismic retrofitting is the modification of existing structures to make them more resistant to seismic activity, ground motion, or soil failure due to earthquakes. With better understanding of seismic demand on structures and with our recent exp ...
ting there are a large number of dangerous unreinforced masonry
Masonry is the building of structures from individual units, which are often laid in and bound together by mortar; the term ''masonry'' can also refer to the units themselves. The common materials of masonry construction are bricks, building ...
(mostly brick) structures and chimneys, which can be extremely hazardous to occupants in a large earthquake, and a large number of buildings which are either not bolted to their foundations or with soft stories that are insufficiently resistant to shear forces. Foundation and soft story weaknesses are easily remediated in most cases, but this is only effective if the work is competently done, with proper attention to minor details such as nailing patterns and proper connections. Local surveys of recently completed work have exposed deficient workmanship in a number of cases involving household retrofits.
Landslides
There are many small active landslides and evidence of numerous large archaic landslides in the Berkeley Hills
The Berkeley Hills are a range of the Pacific Coast Ranges that overlook the northeast side of the valley that encompasses San Francisco Bay. They were previously called the "Contra Costa Range/Hills" (from the original Spanish ''Sierra de la ...
. Such areas may be stable only under present conditions. There is the possibility that a large earthquake could trigger very large earth flows, particularly if the soils are seasonally saturated with water, possibly rendering extensive areas unbuildable. (See the Virtual tour
A virtual tour is a simulation of an existing location, usually composed of a sequence of videos, still images or 360-degree images. It may also use other multimedia elements such as sound effects, music, narration, text and floor map. It is dis ...
– Google Earth Flyover below.)
Potentially impacted structures and features
Many structures near the bay shore on either side would probably be severely affected by either a major Hayward Fault rupture or a nearby San Andreas Fault rupture. Severe effects were seen in both Oakland and northern San Francisco from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, even though this event was not extremely large and was centered a significant distance away in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Most of the severe effects of that event were due to poorly responding soil conditions and design deficiencies in large structures. Only a portion of the structural deficiencies in the larger area have been addressed, and the surface motion effects of a large event are likely to be far more severe than seen in the Loma Prieta event.
Freeways and overcrossings
Many modifications have been made to freeway structures to reduce life hazards during seismic events. Significant adverse conditions remain which can cause disruption with possible long-term effects upon critical traffic infrastructure despite these modifications.
Warren Freeway portion of Highway 13
In its northern extent, the Hayward Fault lies directly beneath the portion of Highway 13
The following roads may be referred to as Route 13 or Highway 13. For a list of roads named A13, see List of A13 roads.
International
* Asian Highway 13
* European route E13
* European route E013
Afghanistan
*The Kabul–Behsud Highway - ...
(the ''Warren Freeway'') that is south of its intersection with Highway 24 and north of its terminal connection with Interstate 580 (the ''MacArthur Freeway''). In this rift
In geology, a rift is a linear zone where the lithosphere is being pulled apart and is an example of extensional tectonics.
Typical rift features are a central linear downfaulted depression, called a graben, or more commonly a half-grabe ...
valley there are a number of elevated street crossings in the Montclair District that cross the fault.
Highway 24
State Highway 24, connecting Oakland to Orinda, Lafayette, and Walnut Creek through the Caldecott Tunnel
The Caldecott Tunnel is an east–west highway tunnel through the Berkeley Hills between Oakland and Orinda, California. Its four bores carry California State Route 24. Named after Thomas E. Caldecott, former mayor of Berkeley, it opened in 19 ...
, is composed of extensive earth fill at the location where the fault is crossed. An earthquake may cause minor landsliding on some slopes of the freeway, and the plastic movement of the fill would likely disrupt the pavement if the movement here of the surface displacement is substantial, possibly presenting a hazard to motorists and shutting down the highway for a while. More extensive disruption and greater hazard could be caused by the failure of elevated structures, both those over which the highway passes and overcrossings of the freeway, of which there are two nearby. As elsewhere in the area, such structures have undergone extensive retrofitting
Retrofitting is the addition of new technology or features to older systems. Retrofits can happen for a number of reasons, for example with big capital expenditures like naval vessels, military equipment or manufacturing plants, businesses or go ...
for safety.
Highways 80 and 880 and the Port of Oakland
A severe earthquake is more likely to disable the offshore causeway portions of Interstate Highway 80 (the Eastshore Freeway
Interstate 80 (I-80) is a transcontinental Interstate Highway in the United States, stretching from San Francisco, California, to Teaneck, New Jersey. The segment of I-80 in California runs east from San Francisco across the San Franciscoâ ...
), since it is built on fill placed in the 1930s atop mudflats whose upper layers were deposited in the 19th century as a result of extensive hydraulic gold mining in the distant Sierra Nevada
The Sierra Nevada () is a mountain range in the Western United States, between the Central Valley of California and the Great Basin. The vast majority of the range lies in the state of California, although the Carson Range spur lies primarily ...
mountain foothills. This soft mud is expected to amplify earthquake shaking, and the mud supporting the heavy fill may liquefy, and so possibly cause major disruption of the highway due to failure by sinking of the highway and by differential movement of large sections. (More modern construction for these conditions employs linked and "floating" – in mud – lightweight concrete
Concrete is a composite material composed of fine and coarse aggregate bonded together with a fluid cement (cement paste) that hardens (cures) over time. Concrete is the second-most-used substance in the world after water, and is the most wi ...
and plastic foam box structures to support a road.) Similar conditions underlie the eastern approach roads to the Bay Bridge. Better, but still locally poor soils underlie the portion of Interstate Highway 880 that extends to the South Bay region from the MacArthur Maze
The MacArthur Maze (or simply the Maze, also called the Distribution Structure) is a large freeway interchange near the east end of the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge in Oakland, California. It splits Bay Bridge traffic into three freeways— ...
. As the bulk of cargo containers from the Port of Oakland
The Port of Oakland is a major container ship facility located in Oakland, California, in the San Francisco Bay. It was the first major port on the Pacific Coast of the United States to build terminals for container ships. As of 2011 it was the f ...
travel on these two roads, the disabling of both would cause severe disruption of West Coast import and export goods, owing to the consequent overloading of other West Coast container handling ports.
Highway 580
A major route for commuters traveling from Southern Alameda County, the San Joaquin Valley and the East Bay hills to downtown Oakland
Downtown Oakland is the central business district of Oakland, California, United States; roughly bounded by both the Oakland Estuary and Interstate 880 on the southwest, Interstate 980 on the northwest, Grand Avenue on the northeast, and Lake ...
and San Francisco, Interstate 580 crosses the fault twice, and runs very close to the fault between the intersections with State Route 13 (the Warren Freeway) and Interstate 238
Route 238, consisting of State Route 238 (SR 238) and Interstate 238 (I-238), is a mostly north–south state and auxiliary Interstate highway in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. The southern segment is signed as SR& ...
.
San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge
The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake caused a failure of a single section of the upper deck of the eastern span of the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge
The San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge, known locally as the Bay Bridge, is a complex of bridges spanning San Francisco Bay in California. As part of Interstate 80 in California, Interstate 80 and the direct road between San Francisco and Oakland ...
, which closed the bridge for 30 days. A replacement of the eastern span was completed in August 2013. Engineers and much of the public had long recognized that a strong earthquake centered close to the bridge on either the Hayward or San Andreas faults could cause a complete collapse of the eastern span.
Railroads
Parallel to the Eastshore Freeway and inland only two blocks is a four-track railroad route used for general freight traffic, including that generated by the Port of Oakland
The Port of Oakland is a major container ship facility located in Oakland, California, in the San Francisco Bay. It was the first major port on the Pacific Coast of the United States to build terminals for container ships. As of 2011 it was the f ...
(Union Pacific
The Union Pacific Railroad , legally Union Pacific Railroad Company and often called simply Union Pacific, is a freight-hauling railroad that operates 8,300 locomotives over routes in 23 U.S. states west of Chicago and New Orleans. Union Paci ...
and BNSF
BNSF Railway is one of the largest freight railroads in North America. One of seven North American Class I railroads, BNSF has 35,000 employees, of track in 28 states, and nearly 8,000 locomotives. It has three transcontinental routes that ...
railroads) and by Amtrak
The National Railroad Passenger Corporation, Trade name, doing business as Amtrak () , is the national Passenger train, passenger railroad company of the United States. It operates inter-city rail service in 46 of the 48 contiguous United Stat ...
passenger traffic to the Pacific Northwest and eastward through Reno
Reno ( ) is a city in the northwest section of the U.S. state of Nevada, along the Nevada-California border, about north from Lake Tahoe, known as "The Biggest Little City in the World". Known for its casino and tourism industry, Reno is the ...
and Salt Lake City
Salt Lake City (often shortened to Salt Lake and abbreviated as SLC) is the Capital (political), capital and List of cities and towns in Utah, most populous city of Utah, United States. It is the county seat, seat of Salt Lake County, Utah, Sal ...
. Along the north shore of Contra Costa County
) of the San Francisco Bay
, subdivision_type = Country
, subdivision_name = United States
, subdivision_type1 = State
, subdivision_name1 = California
, subdivision_type2 ...
, substantial amounts of pressurized liquid gas, flammable liquids, caustic materials, and various toxics are stored temporarily in bulk railcars adjacent to passenger and freight traffic mainlines, with great potential hazards should a derailment occur. Derailments have often occurred during major earthquakes, both directly by tipping and by roadbed failures; industrial accidents involving these materials have caused extensive health hazards in the mixed residential–industrial areas of Richmond.
Bay Area Rapid Transit
In addition to extensive modifications to over crossings and elevated structures, largely to prevent dismantling due to shaking or destruction by soil failure, several other unique system feature require special treatment.
Transbay tube
BART trains travel between San Francisco and Oakland through an underwater tube structure. The tube is composed of welded plate steel segments. Each oval outer section carries two inner train tubes of circular cross section and a central rectangular access and rescue tunnel, with the void between elements filled with concrete. The segments were sunk into a ditch dredged through bay mud and covered with rock fill, and then pumped free of water upon completion, making the resulting tube somewhat buoyant, but held in place with a rock overfill. Subsequent seismic analysis indicated the possibility that the overfill could fail due to agitation, allowing the buoyant tube to float upward, misaligning the tracks and possibly overstressing the bolted connections. This potential problem has been addressed by vibratory compaction of the overfill covering the tube. Additional stabilization includes the driving of large pilings and the connection of additional restraints.
Slip joint
The transbay tube terminates at an under-bay slip joint
A slip joint is a mechanical construction allowing extension and compression in a linear structure.
General forms
Slip joints can be designed to allow continuous relative motion of two components or it can allow an adjustment, by unclamping from ...
near the Embarcadero Station in San Francisco. The designed slip margin has been reduced by half due to unforeseen settlement of the tube structure. The projected worst-case motion at this joint has been determined to be beyond that for which the joint is presently capable, which could cause severe structural problems and mud and water entry into the tube and adjacent subway systems. This is to be corrected at great expense – first estimated at $142 million but expected to cost far more – probably the largest single cost item in the list of BART seismic retrofits.
Berkeley Hills Tunnel
In June 2006 Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) management announced that they have elected not to modify the Berkeley Hills Tunnel
The Berkeley Hills Tunnel is a tunnel which carries Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) through the Berkeley Hills between Rockridge station and Orinda station.
Design
While the tracks run in the median of California State Route 24 on both sides of t ...
, which actually penetrates the Hayward Fault, arguing that it would be cheaper (and less disruptive to current operations) to rebore a misaligned portion after the fact than to protect riders (either by extensive modifications of the tunnel or by replacing it with a higher bore) against the small likelihood that a train (or two) would crash into or be cut in two by a major slippage of the fault. Modified train scheduling to prevent multiple train exposure at faults has been determined by BART engineers to be impractical due to variations in train passage, but automated
Automation describes a wide range of technologies that reduce human intervention in processes, namely by predetermining decision criteria, subprocess relationships, and related actions, as well as embodying those predeterminations in machines ...
event-related realtime train operational response is considered practical (see below).
Seismic sensor network
BART has installed and continues to enhance a network of seismic sensors (an earthquake warning system
An earthquake warning system or earthquake early warning system is a system of accelerometers, seismometers, communication, computers, and alarms that is devised for notifying adjoining regions of a substantial earthquake while it is in progress ...
) to trigger a system halt in the event of a major event, this to include automated event progression analysis to determine the best action with regard to individual trains for maximum safety (a fault rip can take up to several tens of seconds to completely propagate from the epicenter to the more distant affected locations). Such sensor networks and warning devices have a potential to reduce the hazards from falling objects and furnishings provided that the people notified are well trained in appropriate responses (similar to the Cold War's "duck and cover
"Duck and cover" is a method of personal protection against the effects of a nuclear explosion. Ducking and covering is useful in offering a degree of protection to personnel located outside the radius of the nuclear fireball but still within su ...
" training of schoolchildren).
Refineries
Of primary concern with respect to the Hayward Fault is the huge Chevron Richmond Refinery in Richmond
Richmond most often refers to:
* Richmond, Virginia, the capital of Virginia, United States
* Richmond, London, a part of London
* Richmond, North Yorkshire, a town in England
* Richmond, British Columbia, a city in Canada
* Richmond, California, ...
. Although founded on better ground than most of the shoreline, this refinery has extensive crude oil and finished product docks and pipelines extending into the bay, which could produce catastrophic spills into the bay, with the potential to adversely affect hundreds of miles of sensitive wetlands. Dismantling of high pressure and temperature process units and the consequent fire danger to personnel and equipment could produce substantial economic consequences for the western states. Large liquid storage tanks are protected by berms that are designed to contain the contents should a tank fail under normal conditions. Similar process and product conditions exist at other refineries further inland near Martinez, but mostly these plants are exposed to earthquakes from other faults.
Fuel pipelines
Gasoline is continuously shipped under pressure from Richmond and Martinez area refineries through Kinder Morgan Energy Partners pipelines which run under heavily populated East Bay urban areas to tank terminals near San Jose Airport in North San Jose. Aviation fuels are piped from these same refineries to the Oakland Airport. A number of spills have previously occurred due to landslides and such spill and related toxic and flammable material release may be prevalent in a major seismic event. A November 9, 2004, construction accident on this pipeline system in Walnut Creek killed five people. As seen in other worldwide pipeline ruptures, even an instantaneous stop of pumping would take several minutes to significantly lower pipeline pressure after a break, and would likely result in the release of significant amounts of flammable liquid fuels. Chevron also has a petroleum products pipeline that crosses the fault.
Pacific Gas & Electric Company has numerous gas distribution lines crossing or near the Hayward Fault. Several PG&E gas transmission pipelines also cross the fault. After the San Bruno pipeline explosion
The San Bruno pipeline explosion occurred at 6:11 pm PDT on September 9, 2010, in San Bruno, California, when a diameter steel natural gas pipeline owned by Pacific Gas & Electric exploded into flames in the Crestmoor residential neighbor ...
, which was unrelated to seismic activity, it took PG&E crews 95 minutes to stop the gas flow to both ends of that failed pipeline.
Bay Area water supplies
East Bay Municipal Utility District
East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD), colloquially referred to as "East Bay Mud", is a public utility district which provides water and sewage treatment services for an area of approximately in the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay.S ...
(EBMUD) supplies water to 800,000 East Bay customers who live west of the Berkeley Hills
The Berkeley Hills are a range of the Pacific Coast Ranges that overlook the northeast side of the valley that encompasses San Francisco Bay. They were previously called the "Contra Costa Range/Hills" (from the original Spanish ''Sierra de la ...
. Prior to the adoption and implementation of a $200 million seismic improvement project all of the water for these customers went through one vulnerable tunnel that crosses the Hayward Fault near the Caldecott Tunnel
The Caldecott Tunnel is an east–west highway tunnel through the Berkeley Hills between Oakland and Orinda, California. Its four bores carry California State Route 24. Named after Thomas E. Caldecott, former mayor of Berkeley, it opened in 19 ...
. As part of this project, that tunnel – the Claremont Tunnel – was seismically retrofitted. Additionally, EBMUD created a second route to bring water to these west-of-the-hills customers through the Southern Loop Bypass near Castro Valley
Castro Valley is a census-designated place (CDP) in Alameda County, California, United States. At the 2010 census, it was the fifth most populous unincorporated area in California and the twenty-third most populous in the United States. The popula ...
. The Southern Loop was completed in 2002, while the seismic retrofitting of the Claremont tunnel was completed in February 2007.
The Hetch Hetchy Aqueduct
Hetch Hetchy is a valley, a reservoir, and a water system in California in the United States. The glacial Hetch Hetchy Valley lies in the northwestern part of Yosemite National Park and is drained by the Tuolumne River. For thousands of years bef ...
, which supplies 270 to 315 million gallons of water per day to the City of San Francisco and other Bay Area communities, directly crosses the Hayward Fault in Fremont. A 2002 report by the Bay Area Economic Forum suggests that a breakdown in the aqueduct due to an earthquake could cut off Hetch Hetchy water to the Bay Area for 60 days. In addition to depriving 85% of San Francisco residents of their drinking water, this would cut off supplies for firefighting and water-intensive industry, causing economic damage of $17.2–28.7 billion. Extensive reconstruction work at the Hayward Fault crossing includes a multi-sectioned tunnel structure to allow shear without collapse, this is to contain a section of water pipe with ball joints and a slip joint.
Lake Temescal
The fault continues north under the eastern margin of Lake Temescal
Lake Temescal is a small reservoir in the Oakland hills, in northeastern Oakland, California. It is the centerpiece of Temescal Regional Recreation Area, also known as Temescal Regional Park (and originally, Lake Temescal Regional Park). It is a p ...
and its dam, which is unlikely to fail since it has been completely reinforced by the extensive earth fill supporting the subsequently improved Highway 24.
University of California, Berkeley
Many of the structures at the UC Berkeley academic campus have been self-rated as having "poor" earthquake performance. Numerous chemical, radiological, and biohazardous materials are present (in relatively small quantities) on campus and on the associated Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), commonly referred to as the Berkeley Lab, is a United States Department of Energy National Labs, United States national laboratory that is owned by, and conducts scientific research on behalf of, t ...
, in the hills above the university. However, the University has undertaken an extensive retrofitting project over the past decade to systematically retrofit all academic buildings on Campus to withstand a significant earthquake.
Memorial Stadium
Further north the fault passes under the lengthwise midline of the football field of California Memorial Stadium
California Memorial Stadium also known simply and commonly as Memorial Stadium is an outdoor college football stadium on the west coast of the United States, located on the campus of the University of California in Berkeley, California. It is ...
at the University of California, Berkeley
The University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley, Berkeley, Cal, or California) is a public land-grant research university in Berkeley, California. Established in 1868 as the University of California, it is the state's first land-grant u ...
. Fault creep since 1923 offset the original walls at the north and south ends 13 inches (33 cm).
Extensive upgrades over a recent eighteen-month interval have addressed the life safety issues, including replacement of the football
Football is a family of team sports that involve, to varying degrees, kicking a ball to score a goal. Unqualified, the word ''football'' normally means the form of football that is the most popular where the word is used. Sports commonly c ...
players' facilities, and an extensive seismic retrofit of those sections not subject to fault shearing. The work was the subject of several lawsuits from neighborhood and environmental groups, who were concerned about such extensive construction on top of a major fault. During the reconstruction, the Cal Bears have played at AT&T Park
Oracle Park is a Major League Baseball stadium in the SoMa neighborhood of San Francisco, California. Since 2000, it has been the home of the San Francisco Giants. Previously named Pacific Bell Park, SBC Park, and AT&T Park, the stadium's curren ...
in San Francisco for one season. The modifications completed in Summer 2012 involved the cutting of the stadium into four independent sections, followed by the demolition of the two segments directly over the rubble zone. The north and south ends are formed of new bridging sections that rest upon floating mats (foundations that do not penetrate the surface, rather sitting upon plastic sheets over level graded gravel and sand) where they pass over and near the fault, with appropriate sliding connections between the sections for the safety of spectators and the ability to absorb the relative rotation between the east and west fixed sections and the new north and south mobile sections.
Electrical and communication system disruption
Affected areas are likely to be without electrical power for an extensive period. This in turn can make fuel supplies for vehicles and emergency generators unavailable locally and impact both domestic water, industrial water, sewage plants, and drainage pumping. Due to the extensive use of point of sale scanners and registers in supermarkets this could also impact the ability of stores to sell essential items such as groceries and to preserve frozen food items, as well as terminating cable TV and most internet access.
Cellphone and most landline telephone service, while theoretically survivable for a short time on battery and emergency power, could instead suffer immediate disruption from ground shaking effects.
Cities affected
Some of the cities in the eastern bay shore and south bay region near this fault include Richmond
Richmond most often refers to:
* Richmond, Virginia, the capital of Virginia, United States
* Richmond, London, a part of London
* Richmond, North Yorkshire, a town in England
* Richmond, British Columbia, a city in Canada
* Richmond, California, ...
, El Cerrito, Berkeley
Berkeley most often refers to:
*Berkeley, California, a city in the United States
**University of California, Berkeley, a public university in Berkeley, California
* George Berkeley (1685–1753), Anglo-Irish philosopher
Berkeley may also refer ...
, Albany, Emeryville Emeryville may refer to:
* Emeryville, California
Emeryville is a city located in northwest Alameda County, California, in the United States. It lies in a corridor between the cities of Berkeley and Oakland, with a border on the shore of San ...
, Kensington
Kensington is a district in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea in the West End of London, West of Central London.
The district's commercial heart is Kensington High Street, running on an east–west axis. The north-east is taken up b ...
, Oakland
Oakland is the largest city and the county seat of Alameda County, California, United States. A major West Coast port, Oakland is the largest city in the East Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area, the third largest city overall in the Bay A ...
, Piedmont
it, Piemontese
, population_note =
, population_blank1_title =
, population_blank1 =
, demographics_type1 =
, demographics1_footnotes =
, demographics1_title1 =
, demographics1_info1 =
, demographics1_title2 ...
, San Leandro
San Leandro (Spanish for " St. Leander") is a city in Alameda County, California, United States. It is located in the East Bay of the San Francisco Bay Area; between Oakland to the northwest, and Ashland, Castro Valley, and Hayward to the sout ...
, San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo is the Italian and Spanish name for Lawrence of Rome, Saint Lawrence, the 3rd-century Christian martyr, and may refer to:
Places Argentina
* San Lorenzo, Santa Fe
* San Lorenzo Department, Chaco
* Monte San Lorenzo, a mountain on t ...
, Castro Valley
Castro Valley is a census-designated place (CDP) in Alameda County, California, United States. At the 2010 census, it was the fifth most populous unincorporated area in California and the twenty-third most populous in the United States. The popula ...
, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, Newark
Newark most commonly refers to:
* Newark, New Jersey, city in the United States
* Newark Liberty International Airport, New Jersey; a major air hub in the New York metropolitan area
Newark may also refer to:
Places Canada
* Niagara-on-the ...
, Milpitas
Milpitas (Spanish for "little milpas") is a city in Santa Clara County, California, in Silicon Valley. As of the 2020 census, the city population was 80,273. The city's origins lie in Rancho Milpitas, granted to Californio ranchero José Marà ...
, Niles, and portions of San Jose.
Similar dangerous soil conditions and insufficiently resistant buildings are also on the southern, western and northern boundaries of San Francisco and San Pablo bays and would also be severely affected by a major earthquake on the Hayward fault. As that portion includes the so-called Silicon Valley
Silicon Valley is a region in Northern California that serves as a global center for high technology and innovation. Located in the southern part of the San Francisco Bay Area, it corresponds roughly to the geographical areas San Mateo County ...
, the potential economic disruption due to destruction of works in progress and the dismantling of microelectronics fabrication plants could have an economic effect extending worldwide. The current estimates of the probability of a major earthquake on any of the numerous regional faults range up to 70 percent within the thirty-year period 2000–2029. A recent ''quiet period'' following many years of minor activity is considered to be particularly ominous by many, although geologists have not yet been able to predict earthquakes with any useful accuracy. They do warn that all residents of the region should be prepared for a large event and its subsequent effects (e. g., lack of water, firefighting, first aid, electricity, motor and heating fuels, etc.) and that much life-safety protective work remains to be done.
Retrofits for survivability
It is primarily the likelihood of a severe earthquake on the Hayward or San Andreas faults that has spurred a substantial effort to retrofit
Retrofitting is the addition of new technology or features to older systems. Retrofits can happen for a number of reasons, for example with big capital expenditures like naval vessels, military equipment or manufacturing plants, businesses or go ...
and sometimes replace large structures at risk, particularly the eastern and western spans of the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge
The San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge, known locally as the Bay Bridge, is a complex of bridges spanning San Francisco Bay in California. As part of Interstate 80 in California, Interstate 80 and the direct road between San Francisco and Oakland ...
, the San Francisco
San Francisco (; Spanish language, Spanish for "Francis of Assisi, Saint Francis"), officially the City and County of San Francisco, is the commercial, financial, and cultural center of Northern California. The city proper is the List of Ca ...
and Oakland
Oakland is the largest city and the county seat of Alameda County, California, United States. A major West Coast port, Oakland is the largest city in the East Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area, the third largest city overall in the Bay A ...
city halls, and numerous elevated rail, road, and pedestrian structures and overpass
An overpass (called an overbridge or flyover in the United Kingdom and some other Commonwealth countries) is a bridge, road, railway or similar structure that crosses over another road or railway. An ''overpass'' and ''underpass'' together form ...
es. Much work remains to be done in the region and progress is being hampered by budget constraints imposed by trickle down federal-state-regional deficits, design and construction delays due to state and local political bickering over design, and unexpectedly high steel
Steel is an alloy made up of iron with added carbon to improve its strength and fracture resistance compared to other forms of iron. Many other elements may be present or added. Stainless steels that are corrosion- and oxidation-resistant ty ...
and cement
A cement is a binder, a chemical substance used for construction that sets, hardens, and adheres to other materials to bind them together. Cement is seldom used on its own, but rather to bind sand and gravel ( aggregate) together. Cement mix ...
costs due to the extensive construction work being done in China
China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, slightly ahead of India. China spans the equivalent of five time zones and ...
. Nonetheless, Bay area cities and counties have long expected a major earthquake and as a result all building in the past 30 years has been required to adhere to strict guidelines regarding earthquake resistance. Of all the earthquake prone regions of the world, the San Francisco Bay Area is among the most prepared structurally for the eventuality of a major quake while remaining grossly unprepared in both civil response planning and in the retrofitting of older buildings.SPUR Report
"The dilemma of existing buildings: Private Property, Public Risk" (An extensive report and analysis for San Francisco, but with broad applicability to the region. This addresses particularly the difference in requirements between life safety and habitability after an earthquake)
Further information
Virtual tour
The Google Earth
Google Earth is a computer program that renders a 3D computer graphics, 3D representation of Earth based primarily on satellite imagery. The program maps the Earth by superimposition, superimposing satellite images, aerial photography, and geog ...
website, in cooperation with the United States Geological Survey
The United States Geological Survey (USGS), formerly simply known as the Geological Survey, is a scientific agency of the United States government. The scientists of the USGS study the landscape of the United States, its natural resources, ...
, has prepared a virtual helicopter tour of the fault, with much additional information available through the tour. Potentially dangerous landslide areas are also marked, showing great areas beyond the fault that could be rendered uninhabitable by a major event.
Special exhibit
Fremont Earthquake Exhibit: ''The Hayward Fault Exposed''
This geotourism
Geotourism is tourism associated with geological attractions and destinations.Dowling, R. & Newsome, D. (Eds.)(2006) ''Geotourism'' ; Elsevier, Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford Geotourism deals with the abiotic natural and built environments.Sadry ...
exhibit (April through October 2006, now closed) featured a 12- to deep pit exposing the Hayward Fault, which could be viewed "face to face" from a shaded platform by descending a staircase. Significant features were noted and marked. Similar trench excavations are used in the determination of the frequency and magnitude of prehistoric earthquakes and to determine the location of latent faults as part of the science of Paleoseismology
Paleoseismology looks at geologic sediments and rocks, for signs of ancient earthquakes. It is used to supplement seismic monitoring, for the calculation of seismic hazard. Paleoseismology is usually restricted to geologic regimes that have ...
*Extensive additional interpretive material concerning the geology and seismology of the Bay Area was presented for viewing, most of which is currently accessible onlin
*Funding and organization for a permanent exhibit at this location is being actively sought, with planning in progres
In popular culture
The Tom Wolfe
Thomas Kennerly Wolfe Jr. (March 2, 1930 – May 14, 2018)Some sources say 1931; ''The New York Times'' and Reuters both initially reported 1931 in their obituaries before changing to 1930. See and was an American author and journalist widely ...
novel ''A Man in Full
''A Man in Full'' is the second novel by Tom Wolfe, published on November 12, 1998, by Farrar, Straus & Giroux. It is set primarily in Atlanta, with a significant portion of the story also transpiring in the East Bay region of the San Francisco B ...
'' features a fictional major earthquake on the Hayward Fault as a deus ex machina
''Deus ex machina'' ( , ; plural: ''dei ex machina''; English "god out of the machine") is a plot device whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem in a story is suddenly and abruptly resolved by an unexpected and unlikely occurrence. Its function ...
method (freeing a major character from prison) and plot development point.
The James Bond
The ''James Bond'' series focuses on a fictional British Secret Service agent created in 1953 by writer Ian Fleming, who featured him in twelve novels and two short-story collections. Since Fleming's death in 1964, eight other authors have ...
movie ''A View to a Kill
''A View to a Kill'' is a 1985 spy film and the fourteenth in the ''James Bond'' series produced by Eon Productions, and is the seventh and final appearance of Roger Moore as the fictional MI6 agent James Bond. Although the title is adapted ...
'' (1985) involved a plot, referred as "Main Strike", by Max Zorin
Maximillian Zorin is a fictional character and the main antagonist in the 1985 James Bond film '' A View to a Kill''. He is portrayed by Christopher Walken.
Biography
Zorin was born in Dresden around the end of World War II, after which Dresden be ...
to detonate explosives along the Hayward Fault, San Andreas Fault and at the "geological lock" to flood the two faults with water from nearby lakes and cause both faults to move causing a "double earthquake" that would destroy Silicon Valley, all in order for Zorin to monopolize the microchip market.
References
Sources
*
Further reading
*
*
External links
Active Traces of the Hayward Fault
– USGS
The United States Geological Survey (USGS), formerly simply known as the Geological Survey, is a scientific agency of the United States government. The scientists of the USGS study the landscape of the United States, its natural resources, a ...
(includes links to the Google Earth virtual tour of the fault)
"It's Not Our Fault"
– ''East Bay Express
The ''East Bay Express'' is an Oakland-based weekly newspaper serving the Berkeley, Oakland and East Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area. It is distributed throughout Alameda County and parts of Contra Costa County every Wednesday.
The ''E ...
''
The geology of "Bear Territory"
– University of California at Berkeley geology tour
msnucleus.org, K-12 math and science education site
The Hayward Fault: Predictable Peril
– KQED 12 min. video concerning the Hayward Fault, historic and prehistoric earthquakes, seismic retrofits, and civil preparedness.
The Hayward Fault—Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake?
– United States Geological Survey
Earthquake Safety Program Construction Updates
– Bay Area Rapid Transit
The Hayward Fault: Overdue for Destruction
– KQED
The Rodgers Creek and Hayward Faults are revealed to be one fault, capable of a Magnitude=7.4 earthquake
– Temblor, Inc.
The 2018 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired Earthquake Scenario Fact Sheet 2018–3016
– USGS
The United States Geological Survey (USGS), formerly simply known as the Geological Survey, is a scientific agency of the United States government. The scientists of the USGS study the landscape of the United States, its natural resources, a ...
{{Faults
Seismic faults of California
Strike-slip faults
Geography of the San Francisco Bay Area
Geology of Alameda County, California
Geology of Contra Costa County, California
Geology of Santa Clara County, California
Geography of Alameda County, California
Geography of Berkeley, California
Geography of Contra Costa County, California
Geography of Fremont, California
Geography of Hayward, California
Geography of Oakland, California
Geography of Richmond, California
Geography of San Jose, California
Geography of San Leandro, California
Geography of Santa Clara County, California
Berkeley Hills
El Cerrito, California
Union City, California