Graham Tillett Allison Jr. (born March 23, 1940) is an American
political scientist
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
and the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the
John F. Kennedy School of Government
The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), officially the John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the school of public policy and government of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The school offers master's degrees in public policy, public ...
at
Harvard University
Harvard University is a private Ivy League research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Founded in 1636 as Harvard College and named for its first benefactor, the Puritan clergyman John Harvard, it is the oldest institution of high ...
. He is renowned for his contribution in the late 1960s and early 1970s to the bureaucratic analysis of
decision making, especially during times of crisis. His book ''Remaking Foreign Policy: The Organizational Connection'', co-written with
Peter Szanton, was published in 1976 and had some influence on the foreign policy of the administration of President
Jimmy Carter
James Earl Carter Jr. (born October 1, 1924) is an American politician who served as the 39th president of the United States from 1977 to 1981. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as the 76th governor of Georgia from 1 ...
who took office in early 1977. Since the 1970s, Allison has also been a leading analyst of U.S.
national security and defense policy, with a special interest in
nuclear weapons and
terrorism
Terrorism, in its broadest sense, is the use of criminal violence to provoke a state of terror or fear, mostly with the intention to achieve political or religious aims. The term is used in this regard primarily to refer to intentional violen ...
.
Biography
Allison is from
Charlotte, North Carolina
Charlotte ( ) is the most populous city in the U.S. state of North Carolina. Located in the Piedmont region, it is the county seat of Mecklenburg County. The population was 874,579 at the 2020 census, making Charlotte the 16th-most populo ...
and graduated from
Myers Park High School in 1958. He attended
Davidson College for two years, then graduated from
Harvard University
Harvard University is a private Ivy League research university in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Founded in 1636 as Harvard College and named for its first benefactor, the Puritan clergyman John Harvard, it is the oldest institution of high ...
in 1962 with an
B.A.
Bachelor of arts (BA or AB; from the Latin ', ', or ') is a bachelor's degree awarded for an undergraduate program in the arts, or, in some cases, other disciplines. A Bachelor of Arts degree course is generally completed in three or four yea ...
degree. Allison then completed B.A. and
M.A.
A Master of Arts ( la, Magister Artium or ''Artium Magister''; abbreviated MA, M.A., AM, or A.M.) is the holder of a master's degree awarded by universities in many countries. The degree is usually contrasted with that of Master of Science. Tho ...
degrees studying philosophy, politics and economics at
Oxford University
Oxford () is a city in England. It is the county town and only city of Oxfordshire. In 2020, its population was estimated at 151,584. It is north-west of London, south-east of Birmingham and north-east of Bristol. The city is home to th ...
as a
Marshall Scholar
The Marshall Scholarship is a postgraduate scholarship for "intellectually distinguished young Americans ndtheir country's future leaders" to study at any university in the United Kingdom. It is widely considered one of the most prestigious sc ...
in 1964 and returned to Harvard to earn a
Ph.D.
A Doctor of Philosophy (PhD, Ph.D., or DPhil; Latin: or ') is the most common degree at the highest academic level awarded following a course of study. PhDs are awarded for programs across the whole breadth of academic fields. Because it is ...
degree in political science in 1968. In 1979 Allison received an
honorary doctorate
An honorary degree is an academic degree for which a university (or other degree-awarding institution) has waived all of the usual requirements. It is also known by the Latin phrases ''honoris causa'' ("for the sake of the honour") or ''ad hon ...
from the Faculty of Social Sciences at
Uppsala University
Uppsala University ( sv, Uppsala universitet) is a public research university in Uppsala, Sweden. Founded in 1477, it is the oldest university in Sweden and the Nordic countries still in operation.
The university rose to significance during ...
,
Sweden.
Allison has spent his entire academic career at Harvard, as an assistant professor (1968), associate professor (1970), then full professor (1972) in the department of government. He was
dean
Dean may refer to:
People
* Dean (given name)
* Dean (surname), a surname of Anglo-Saxon English origin
* Dean (South Korean singer), a stage name for singer Kwon Hyuk
* Dean Delannoit, a Belgian singer most known by the mononym Dean
Titles
* ...
of the
John F. Kennedy School of Government
The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), officially the John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the school of public policy and government of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The school offers master's degrees in public policy, public ...
from 1977 to 1989 while the School increased in size by 400% and its endowment increased by 700%. He was director for the
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs from 1995 until 2017, when he was succeeded by former Secretary of Defense
Ash Carter
Ashton Baldwin Carter (September 24, 1954 – October 24, 2022) was an American government official and academic who served as the 25th United States Secretary of Defense from February 2015 to January 2017. He later served as director of the Be ...
. Allison remains
Douglas Dillon Professor of Government.
Allison has also been a fellow of the Center for Advanced Studies (1973–74); consultant for the
RAND Corporation; member of the
Council on Foreign Relations; member of the visiting committee on foreign policy studies at the
Brookings Institution
The Brookings Institution, often stylized as simply Brookings, is an American research group founded in 1916. Located on Think Tank Row in Washington, D.C., the organization conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in e ...
(1972–77); and a member of the
Trilateral Commission
The Trilateral Commission is a nongovernmental international organization aimed at fostering closer cooperation between Japan, Western Europe and North America. It was founded in July 1973 principally by American banker and philanthropist David ...
(1974–84 and 2018). He was among those mentioned to succeed
David Rockefeller
David Rockefeller (June 12, 1915 – March 20, 2017) was an American investment banker who served as chairman and chief executive of Chase Manhattan Corporation. He was the oldest living member of the third generation of the Rockefeller family, ...
as President of the
Council on Foreign Relations. In 2009 he was awarded the
from the
National Academy of Sciences.
Allison has also been a member of the Board of Trustees for the lobbying group USACC (United States-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce).
Analyst work
Allison has been heavily involved in
U.S. defense policy since working as an advisor and consultant to
the Pentagon
The Pentagon is the headquarters building of the United States Department of Defense. It was constructed on an accelerated schedule during World War II. As a symbol of the U.S. military, the phrase ''The Pentagon'' is often used as a meton ...
in the 1960s. He has been a member of the
Secretary of Defense's
Defense Policy Board
The Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee, also referred to as the Defense Policy Board (DPBAC or DPB), is a federal advisory committee to the United States Department of Defense. Their charter is available online through the office of the Dir ...
from 1985. He was a special advisor to the
Secretary of Defense (1985–87) and the
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans (1993–1994), where he coordinated strategy and policy towards the states of the former
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union,. officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR),. was a List of former transcontinental countries#Since 1700, transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 to 1991. A flagship communist state, ...
. President
Bill Clinton
William Jefferson Clinton ( né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. He previously served as governor of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981 and agai ...
awarded Allison the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, for "reshaping relations with
Russia
Russia (, , ), or the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. It is the largest country in the world, with its internationally recognised territory covering , and encompassing one-eig ...
,
Ukraine
Ukraine ( uk, Україна, Ukraïna, ) is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which it borders to the east and northeast. Ukraine covers approximately . Prior to the ongoing Russian inv ...
,
Belarus
Belarus,, , ; alternatively and formerly known as Byelorussia (from Russian ). officially the Republic of Belarus,; rus, Республика Беларусь, Respublika Belarus. is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by ...
, and
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan, officially the Republic of Kazakhstan, is a transcontinental country located mainly in Central Asia and partly in Eastern Europe. It borders Russia to the north and west, China to the east, Kyrgyzstan to the southeast, Uzbeki ...
to reduce the former Soviet nuclear arsenal". He was also an informal advisor to
Michael Dukakis
Michael Stanley Dukakis (; born November 3, 1933) is an American retired lawyer and politician who served as governor of Massachusetts from 1975 to 1979 and again from 1983 to 1991. He is the longest-serving governor in Massachusetts history a ...
's 1988 presidential campaign.
Academic work
Allison is best known as a political scientist for his book ''
Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis'' (1971), in which he developed two new theoretical paradigms – an organizational process model and a bureaucratic politics model – to compete with the then-prevalent approach of understanding
foreign policy decision-making using a
rational actor model. ''Essence of Decision'' revolutionized the study of decision-making in political science and beyond.
Thucydides Trap
In the book ''Destined for War'', Allison uses the phrase the Thucydides Trap which, according to him, refers to the theory that "when one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result". Allison's term follows the ancient text ''
History of the Peloponnesian War
The ''History of the Peloponnesian War'' is a historical account of the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC), which was fought between the Peloponnesian League (led by Sparta) and the Delian League (led by Athens). It was written by Thucydides, an ...
'', in which
Thucydides
Thucydides (; grc, , }; BC) was an Athenian historian and general. His '' History of the Peloponnesian War'' recounts the fifth-century BC war between Sparta and Athens until the year 411 BC. Thucydides has been dubbed the father of " scienti ...
wrote, "What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta." The term appeared in a paid opinion advertisement in ''
The New York Times
''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid d ...
'' on April 6, 2017, on the occasion of U.S. President
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of P ...
's meeting with Chinese President
Xi Jinping
Xi Jinping ( ; ; ; born 15 June 1953) is a Chinese politician who has served as the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and thus as the paramount leader of China, ...
, which stated, "Both major players in the region share a moral obligation to steer away from Thucydides's Trap." Allison asserts that circumstances at the start of
World War I
World War I (28 July 1914 11 November 1918), often abbreviated as WWI, was one of the deadliest global conflicts in history. Belligerents included much of Europe, the Russian Empire, the United States, and the Ottoman Empire, with fightin ...
(involving British fears about Germany), the
War of the Spanish Succession
The War of the Spanish Succession was a European great power conflict that took place from 1701 to 1714. The death of childless Charles II of Spain in November 1700 led to a struggle for control of the Spanish Empire between his heirs, Phil ...
, and the
Thirty Years' War
The Thirty Years' War was one of the longest and most destructive conflicts in European history, lasting from 1618 to 1648. Fought primarily in Central Europe, an estimated 4.5 to 8 million soldiers and civilians died as a result of battle ...
(involving French insecurity about the Habsburg empires of Spain and Austria) exhibit the trap.
Both Allison's conception of Thucydides's Trap and its applicability to U.S.-Chinese relations have encountered heavy scholarly criticism. In March 2019, the ''
Journal of Chinese Political Science'' dedicated a special issue to the topic, suggesting
power transition narratives do appear to matter with regard to domestic perception.
Books
* ''Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?'' Boston:
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (2017). .
*
''Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis''.
Little, Brown
Little, Brown and Company is an American publishing company founded in 1837 by Charles Coffin Little and James Brown (publisher), James Brown in Boston. For close to two centuries it has published fiction and nonfiction by American authors. Ear ...
(1971). .
** 2nd ed., with
Philip Zelikow. Longman (1999). .
Controversy
From 2012 to 2013, the Belfer Center (through the
Wikimedia Foundation
The Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., or Wikimedia for short and abbreviated as WMF, is an American 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization headquartered in San Francisco, California and registered as a charitable foundation under local laws. Best know ...
) paid an editor to cite Allison's scholarly writings in various articles. Funding for the position came from the
Stanton Foundation, for which Graham Allison's wife, Liz Allison, was one of two trustees. The editor also made "supposedly problematic edits" based heavily on work of other scholars affiliated with the Belfer Center.
See also
*
Global policeman
*
List of books about nuclear issues
This is a list of books about nuclear issues. They are non-fiction books which relate to uranium mining, nuclear weapons and/or nuclear power.
*''The Algebra of Infinite Justice'' (2001)
*'' American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J ...
*''
On Nuclear Terrorism''
*''
The Four Faces of Nuclear Terrorism''
*''
The Seventh Decade: The New Shape of Nuclear Danger''
References
Bibliography
*Allison, Graham (2015-09-24).
The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?, The Atlantic.
*Welch, David (1993). "Graham Allison". In ''American Political Scientists: A Dictionary'', eds G. Utter and C. Lockhart. Greenwood Press.
Works
*1969: "Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis". ''
American Political Science Review
The ''American Political Science Review'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal covering all areas of political science. It is an official journal of the American Political Science Association and is published on their behalf by Cambri ...
''. 63(3): 689–718.
*1971: ''
Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis''. Little, Brown.
*1972: "Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications." ''World Politics''. 24:40–79 (with Morton H. Halperin).
*1976: ''Remaking Foreign Policy: The Organizational Connection''. Basic Books (with Peter Szanton).
*1983: ''Sharing International Responsibility Among the Trilateral Countries''.
Trilateral Commission
The Trilateral Commission is a nongovernmental international organization aimed at fostering closer cooperation between Japan, Western Europe and North America. It was founded in July 1973 principally by American banker and philanthropist David ...
(with
Nobuhiko Ushiba and
Thierry de Montbrial).
*1985: ''Hawks, Doves and Owls: An Agenda for Avoiding Nuclear War''.
W.W. Norton. (edited with Albert Carnesale and Joseph Nye Jr).
*1989: ''Windows of Opportunity: From Cold War to Peaceful Competition.'' Ballinger (edited with William Ury).
*1992: ''Rethinking America's Security: Beyond Cold War to New World Order''.
W.W. Norton (edited with
Gregory Treverton).
*1996: ''Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material''.
MIT Press
The MIT Press is a university press affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States). It was established in 1962.
History
The MIT Press traces its origins back to 1926 when MIT publish ...
.
*2004: ''
Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe''. Henry Holt.
*2013: ''Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World''.
MIT Press
The MIT Press is a university press affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, Massachusetts (United States). It was established in 1962.
History
The MIT Press traces its origins back to 1926 when MIT publish ...
(with
Robert D. Blackwill
Robert Dean Blackwill (born August 8, 1939)
is a retired United States, American diplomat, author ...
, Ali Wyne, and a foreword by
Henry A. Kissinger).
*2017:
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?'. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
External links
Appearanceson
C-SPANArticles by Graham Allisonat
HuffPost
''HuffPost'' (formerly ''The Huffington Post'' until 2017 and sometimes abbreviated ''HuffPo'') is an American progressive news website, with localized and international editions. The site offers news, satire, blogs, and original content, and ...
Graham Allison's faculty pageat the
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,
Harvard Kennedy School
The Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), officially the John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the school of public policy and government of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The school offers master's degrees in public policy, public ...
*
*
*
{{DEFAULTSORT:Allison, Graham
1940 births
Living people
Writers from Charlotte, North Carolina
Davidson College alumni
Harvard College alumni
Marshall Scholars
Alumni of Hertford College, Oxford
Allison, Graham T.
Nuclear terrorism
Harvard Kennedy School faculty
Clinton administration personnel
Public administration scholars
Conflict-of-interest editing on Wikipedia
Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs