The Gold effect is the phenomenon in which a

scientific Science is a systematic endeavor that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe. Science may be as old as the human species, and some of the earliest archeological evidence for ...

idea, particularly in

medicine Medicine is the science and practice of caring for a patient, managing the diagnosis, prognosis, prevention, treatment, palliation of their injury or disease, and promoting their health. Medicine encompasses a variety of health care pract ...

, is developed to the status of an accepted position within a professional body or association by the social process itself of scientific conferences, committees, and consensus building, despite not being supported by conclusive evidence. The Gold effect is used to analyze errors in

public health policy Health policy can be defined as the "decisions, plans, and actions that are undertaken to achieve specific healthcare goals within a society".World Health Organization''Health Policy'' accessed 22 March 2011(Web archive)/ref> According to the ...

and practice, such as the widespread use of cholesterol screening in the prevention of

cardiovascular disease Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a class of diseases that involve the heart or blood vessels. CVD includes coronary artery diseases (CAD) such as angina and myocardial infarction (commonly known as a heart attack). Other CVDs include stroke, h ...

The effect was described by

Thomas Gold Thomas Gold (May 22, 1920 – June 22, 2004) was an Austrian-born American astrophysicist, a professor of astronomy at Cornell University, a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, and a Fellow of the Royal Society (London). Gold was ...

in 1979. The effect was reviewed by

Petr Skrabanek Petr Skrabanek (October 27, 1940 – June 21, 1994) was a doctor, physician, professor of medicine, and author of several books and many articles. Skrabanek was described by Ben Goldacre as "a lifelong champion of clear thinking, scepticism, and ...

and James McCormick in their book ''Follies and Fallacies in Medicine''. In their book, Skrabanek and McCormick describe the Gold effect as: "At the beginning a few people arrive at a state of near belief in some idea. A meeting is held to discuss the pros and cons of the idea. More people favouring the idea than those disinterested will be present. A representative committee will be nominated to prepare a collective volume to propagate and foster interest in the idea. The totality of resulting articles based on the idea will appear to show an increasing consensus. A specialized journal will be launched. Only orthodox or near orthodox articles will pass the referees and the editor." The progression of the Gold effect was described by mathematician

Raymond Lyttleton Raymond Arthur Lyttleton FRS (7 May 1911 – 16 May 1995) was a British mathematician and theoretical astronomer. He was born in Warley Woods near Birmingham and educated at King Edward VI Five Ways school in Birmingham, going from there to C ...

. According to Lyttleton, the area under the curve of a

gaussian curve In mathematics, a Gaussian function, often simply referred to as a Gaussian, is a function of the base form f(x) = \exp (-x^2) and with parametric extension f(x) = a \exp\left( -\frac \right) for arbitrary real constants , and non-zero . It is ...

represents the number of people concerned with a particular subject. As the Gold effect progresses and more and more people start believing a particular idea, the gaussian curve starts to concentrate more around the center. By the end, the gaussian function will have become a

delta function In mathematics, the Dirac delta distribution ( distribution), also known as the unit impulse, is a generalized function or distribution over the real numbers, whose value is zero everywhere except at zero, and whose integral over the entire ...

, representing everyone as a believer (infinite value at 0), with no non-believers.

References

{{Reflist, refs= {{cite book, last1=Duncan, first1=Roland, title=Lying Truths. A critical scrutiny of current beliefs and conventions, date=1979, publisher=Pergamon Press, location=Oxford, isbn=0080219780, page
182–198
url=https://archive.org/details/lyingtruthscriti0000unse/page/182 {{cite book, author1=Skrabanek, Petr, author-link=Petr Skrabanek, author2=McCormick, James, title=Follies and Fallacies in Medicine, date=1998, publisher=Tarragon Press, location=Whithorn (UK), isbn=1870781090, pages=54–55, edition= Third {{cite journal, last=Hann, first=Alison, author2=Peckham, Stephen, title=Cholesterol screening and the Gold Effect, journal=Health, Risk & Society, date=February 2010, volume=12, issue=1, pages=33–50, doi=10.1080/13698570903499608 Research and development Scientific method Types of scientific fallacy