The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the
Tellus Institute
The Tellus Institute is an American non-profit organization established in 1976 with the aim of bringing scientific rigor and systemic vision to critical environmental and social issues. Tellus has conducted thousands of projects throughout the wo ...
and the
Stockholm Environment Institute
The Stockholm Environment Institute, or SEI, is a non-profit, independent research and policy institute specialising in sustainable development and environmental issues, with seven affiliate offices around the world. SEI works on climate change ...
(SEI) to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century. Further development of the Great Transition scenarios has been carried on by the
Great Transition Initiative
Great Transition is used by the Great Transition Initiative and its predecessor, the Global Scenario Group (GSG), to describe a vision of a just and sustainable global future. The term was originally coined by Kenneth E. Boulding in ''The Meaning ...
(GTI).
The GSG's underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated
scenario analysis
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and gener ...
that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the PoleStar Project and its PoleStar System. Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, the PoleStar System was inspired by the 1987
Brundtland Commission
The Brundtland Commission, formerly the World Commission on Environment and Development, was a sub-organization of the United Nations (UN) that aimed to unite countries in pursuit of sustainable development. It was founded in 1983 when Javier Pér ...
report ''
Our Common Future
__NOTOC__
''Our Common Future'', also known as the Brundtland Report, was published on October 1987 by the United Nations through the Oxford University Press. This publication was in recognition of Gro Harlem Brundtland's, former Norwegian Prime M ...
'', which first put the concept of
sustainable development
Sustainable development is an organizing principle for meeting human development goals while also sustaining the ability of natural systems to provide the natural resources and ecosystem services on which the economy and society depend. The des ...
on the international agenda.
The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. The scenarios informed numerous international assessments, including the
World Water Council
The World Water Council (WWC), also known as the Conseil Mondial de l'Eau (CME), is an international think tank. It was founded in 1996, with its headquarters in Marseille, France. It has 358 members (as of February 2020) which encompass organisa ...
's World Water Vision report in 1999–2000, the OECD Environmental Outlook in 2001, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) a ...
's
greenhouse gas emission
Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities strengthen the greenhouse effect, contributing to climate change. Most is carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas. The largest emitters include coal in China and ...
mitigation assessment in 2001, the
United Nations Environment Programme
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is responsible for coordinating responses to environmental issues within the United Nations system. It was established by Maurice Strong, its first director, after the United Nations Conference on th ...
's Third GEO Report in 2002, and the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is a major assessment of the human impact on the environment, called for by the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2000, launched in 2001 and published in 2005 with more than $14 million of gr ...
in 2005.
Several of the GSG participants who actively participated in the IPCC assessments have been recognized for contributing to the 2007 award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC.
Scenarios
In 2002, the GSG formally summarized their scenario approach in an essay called ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead''.
[Paul Raskin, Tariq Banuri, Gilberto Gallopín, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, Robert Kates, and Rob Swart, ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead'' (Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002), http://www.greattransition.org/gt-essay. See also its sequel: Paul Raskin, ''Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization''. Boston: Tellus Institute, 2016, http://www.greattransition.org/publication/journey-to-earthland.] The essay argues that history has entered a qualitatively new era of high global interdependence, which they refer to as the
planetary phase of civilization The planetary phase of civilization is a term created by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) to describe the contemporary era in which increasing global interdependence and risks are binding the world into a unitary socio-ecological system. Characterist ...
. Some kind of global society will take shape in this century, but its form remains deeply uncertain and highly contested. Three classes of scenarios are discussed – Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions.
Conventional Worlds
Conventional Worlds scenarios envision a future which unfolds without major surprises and with essential continuity with current trends, driving forces, and dominant values. ''Market Forces'' versions rely heavily on free markets that generate sufficient and timely technological evolution to address emerging environmental and social challenges. ''Policy Reform'' versions assume instead that governments mobilize to mount a coordinated, sustained, and effective regime of policy adjustments to mitigate environmental disasters and social destabilization.
Barbarization
Barbarization scenarios depict futures in which the market and policy adjustments of Conventional Worlds are inadequate to address such problems as climate change and social polarization, leading to a devolution of civilized norms. In ''Fortress World'' variants, powerful global actors respond to impending collapse by mounting an authoritarian intervention to stem environmental degradation and social conflict. International elites retreat to protected enclaves, where they manage remaining natural resources and protect their interests. Outside these enclaves, the remainder of civilization endures poverty and degradation. ''Breakdown'' variants would ensue if the elite are unable to form a coherent, adequate response to the mounting crisis. The world descends into conflict and degradation, as institutions collapse.
The Great Transition
Great Transition
Great Transition is used by the Great Transition Initiative and its predecessor, the Global Scenario Group (GSG), to describe a vision of a just and sustainable global future. The term was originally coined by Kenneth E. Boulding in ''The Meaning ...
scenarios go beyond the market and policy adjustments of Conventional Worlds to envision a fundamental shift in institutions and values. The
growth imperative
Growth imperative is a term in economic theory regarding a possible necessity of economic growth. On the micro level, it describes mechanisms that force firms or consumers (households) to increase revenues or consumption to not endanger their in ...
of Conventional Worlds economies give way to
steady state
In systems theory, a system or a Process theory, process is in a steady state if the variables (called state variables) which define the behavior of the system or the process are unchanging in time. In continuous time, this means that for those p ...
economies, the tendency toward inequality is countered by egalitarian social policies, and human values turn toward solidarity, well-being, and ecology, rather than individualism, consumerism, and domination of nature. The potential of a Great Transition is linked to the emergence of a
global citizens movement The global citizens movement is a constellation of organized and overlapping citizens' groups seeking to foster global solidarity in policy and consciousness. The term is often used synonymously with the anti-globalization movement or the global ju ...
to advocate for new values to underpin global society.
''Eco-communalism'' variants are characterized by extreme localism, while the ''New Sustainability Paradigm'' alternative welcomes cosmopolitanism and global governance in a plural world. In all versions, civilization has a far smaller
ecological footprint
The ecological footprint is a method promoted by the Global Footprint Network to measure human demand on natural capital, i.e. the quantity of nature it takes to support people or an economy. It tracks this demand through an ecological accounti ...
, societies are more equitable, and citizens have more leisure time to pursue fulfilling activities.
See also
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Globalization
Globalization, or globalisation (Commonwealth English; see spelling differences), is the process of interaction and integration among people, companies, and governments worldwide. The term ''globalization'' first appeared in the early 20t ...
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Post-capitalism
Post-capitalism is a state in which the economic systems of the world can no longer be described as forms of capitalism. Various individuals and political ideologies have speculated on what would define such a world. According to classical Marxi ...
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Transition scenario Transition scenarios are descriptions of future states which combine a future image with an account of the changes that would need to occur to reach that future. These two elements are often created in a two-step process where the future image is cr ...
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Tellus Institute
The Tellus Institute is an American non-profit organization established in 1976 with the aim of bringing scientific rigor and systemic vision to critical environmental and social issues. Tellus has conducted thousands of projects throughout the wo ...
*
Stockholm Environment Institute
The Stockholm Environment Institute, or SEI, is a non-profit, independent research and policy institute specialising in sustainable development and environmental issues, with seven affiliate offices around the world. SEI works on climate change ...
*
Scenario analysis
Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and gener ...
*
Great Transition
Great Transition is used by the Great Transition Initiative and its predecessor, the Global Scenario Group (GSG), to describe a vision of a just and sustainable global future. The term was originally coined by Kenneth E. Boulding in ''The Meaning ...
References
External links
Global Scenario Group– An international initiative to examine alternative futures
{{Authority control
International environmental organizations
Futures studies organizations