use both this parameter and , birth_date to display the person's date of birth, date of death, and age at death) --> , death_place = , death_cause = , body_discovered = , resting_place = , resting_place_coordinates = , burial_place = , burial_coordinates = , monuments = , nationality = , siglum = , citizenship = , education = *

Amherst College Amherst College ( ) is a private liberal arts college in Amherst, Massachusetts. Founded in 1821 as an attempt to relocate Williams College by its then-president Zephaniah Swift Moore, Amherst is the third oldest institution of higher educatio ...

(BA in physics) *

Stanford University Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. The campus occupies , among the largest in the United States, and enrolls over 17,000 students. Stanford is consider ...

(MA and PhD in economics) , alma_mater = , occupation = financial analyst and commentator , years_active = , era = , employer = , organization = , agent = , known_for = , notable_works = “The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst” (January 2006) , style = , height = , television = , title = , term = , predecessor = , successor = , party = , otherparty = , movement = , opponents = , boards = , spouse = , partner = , children = , parents = , mother = , father = , relatives = , family = , callsign = , awards = , website = , module = , module2 = , module3 = , module4 = , module5 = , module6 = , signature = , signature_size = , signature_alt = , footnotes = , name = Gary Shilling , image = A. Gary Shilling Image.jpg , birth_place = Fremont, Ohio, United States A. Gary Shilling (born May 25, 1937) is an American

financial Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of fina ...

analyst and commentator who appears regularly in publications such as ''

Forbes ''Forbes'' () is an American business magazine owned by Integrated Whale Media Investments and the Forbes family. Published eight times a year, it features articles on finance, industry, investing, and marketing topics. ''Forbes'' also re ...

'', ''

The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...

'', and ''

The Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...

''. He is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., Inc., editor of ''A. Gary Shilling's Insight'', and a member of the ''

Nihon Keizai Shimbun ''The Nikkei'', also known as , is the flagship publication of Nikkei, Inc. (based in Tokyo) and the world's largest financial newspaper, with a daily circulation exceeding 1.73 million copies. The Nikkei 225, a stock market index for the Tok ...

'' Board of Economists. He is featured frequently on business shows on radio and television, and as a recognised orator, addresses conventions of global business groups like the

Young Presidents' Organization YPO (formerly Young Presidents' Organization) is an American-based worldwide leadership community of chief executives with approximately 29,000 members in more than 130 countries, according to the organization's 2019 YPO international fact sheet. ...

. More than two years before the housing bubble burst, Shilling warned that

subprime loan In finance, subprime lending (also referred to as near-prime, subpar, non-prime, and second-chance lending) is the provision of loans to people in the United States who may have difficulty maintaining the repayment schedule. Historically, subpri ...

s were probably "the greatest financial problem" for the future U.S. economy, and in January 2006, prior to the

2008 recession The Great Recession was a period of marked general decline, i.e. a recession, observed in national economies globally that occurred from late 2007 into 2009. The scale and timing of the recession varied from country to country (see map). At t ...

, he wrote an article entitled: “The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst”. In 2007 he correctly prophesied that housing would "sink the economy".

Biography

Shilling was awarded a bachelor's degree in physics from

, and an MA and PhD in economics from

. He has worked for Thornhill Securities, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco,

Merrill Lynch Merrill (officially Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated), previously branded Merrill Lynch, is an American investment management and wealth management division of Bank of America. Along with BofA Securities, the investment bank ...

, White Weld & Co., and Standard Oil Co NJ. In the spring of 1969, he was one of only a few analysts who correctly envisioned the

recession In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock). This may be triggered by various ...

at year's-end, and was almost a lone voice in 1973, when he forecast a monolithic international inventory-building fling, followed by the first significant recession since the

Great Depression The Great Depression (19291939) was an economic shock that impacted most countries across the world. It was a period of economic depression that became evident after a major fall in stock prices in the United States. The economic contagio ...

. In the late 1970s, while most analysts presumed that waxing

inflation In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reductio ...

would go on unabated, Shilling was the first to predict that America's infirm political climate would impede it. He also foresaw various dangerous economic readjustment problems and a shift in investment strategy from a preference for

tangible asset In financial accounting, an asset is any resource owned or controlled by a business or an economic entity. It is anything (tangible or intangible) that can be used to produce positive economic value. Assets represent value of ownership that can ...

s to an increased emphasis on stocks and bonds. He was named Top Commodity Trading Advisor by ''

Futures Magazine ''Modern Trader'' is a U.S.-based monthly print investment magazine. The publication was established in 1972 under the name ''Commodities''. The name was changed to ''Futures'' in September 1983 and ''Modern Trader'' in 2015. The magazine is a st ...

'' in 1993 and Wall Street Top Economist (1975 and 1976) by '' Institutional Investor Magazine''. More than two years before the housing bubble burst, Shilling warned that

s were probably "the greatest financial problem" for the future U.S. economy, and in January 2006, prior to the

, he wrote an article entitled: “The Housing Bubble Will Probably Burst” in ''A. Gary Shilling's Insight''. In 2007 he correctly prophesied that housing would "sink the economy". In June 2011, he predicted a 20% drop in housing in 2012 with a resulting global recession. In October 2012 he predicted a global recession in 2013. In August 2015, he predicted that the price of oil "is headed for $10 to $20 per barrel" (it was $43/barrel at the time) due to higher productivity through fracking and

OPEC The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, ) is a cartel of countries. Founded on 14 September 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela), it has, since 1965, been headquart ...

not limiting production.

References

External links

"Statement of A. Gary Shilling,"
''Economic Report of the President, Hearings Before the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States'', 1982. 1937 births 20th-century American economists 21st-century American economists American financial analysts American male journalists Amherst College alumni Economists from New Jersey Economists from Ohio Federal Reserve economists Living people Merrill (company) people Nikkei Inc. Stanford University alumni {{US-journalist-20thC-stub