![Gregory XIV](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Gregory_XIV.PNG)
Gambling on papal elections has at least a 500-year history. Betting on 16th-century
papal conclaves are among the first documented examples of gambling on election outcomes.
[Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf. 2008.]
Historical Political Futures Markets: An International Perspective
". NBER Working Paper 14377. During the same period, gambling was also common on the outcomes of secular Italian elections, such as that of the
Doge of Venice
The Doge of Venice ( ; vec, Doxe de Venexia ; it, Doge di Venezia ; all derived from Latin ', "military leader"), sometimes translated as Duke (compare the Italian '), was the chief magistrate and leader of the Republic of Venice between 726 ...
.
15th century
The
Republic of Venice
The Republic of Venice ( vec, Repùblega de Venèsia) or Venetian Republic ( vec, Repùblega Vèneta, links=no), traditionally known as La Serenissima ( en, Most Serene Republic of Venice, italics=yes; vec, Serenìsima Repùblega de Venèsia, ...
forbade betting on the pope's life in 1419, and canceled bets already made.
Life insurance policies were often taken out on the current pope, sometimes as genuine insurance by businessmen owed money by the papacy who feared a change of Pontiff, but also a purely speculative venture. Such policies on the lives of popes and other notable figures were forbidden in
Barcelona
Barcelona ( , , ) is a city on the coast of northeastern Spain. It is the capital and largest city of the autonomous community of Catalonia, as well as the second most populous municipality of Spain. With a population of 1.6 million within ci ...
(1435) and
Genoa
Genoa ( ; it, Genova ; lij, Zêna ). is the capital of the Italian region of Liguria and the sixth-largest city in Italy. In 2015, 594,733 people lived within the city's administrative limits. As of the 2011 Italian census, the Province of ...
(1467 and 1494).
16th century
The first recorded example of gambling on the candidate to be selected by a papal election occurs with the
papal conclave, September 1503, although Frederic Baumgartner, a historian of papal elections, considers it then already "an old practice".
Discussing the election of
Leo X
Pope Leo X ( it, Leone X; born Giovanni di Lorenzo de' Medici, 11 December 14751 December 1521) was head of the Catholic Church and ruler of the Papal States from 9 March 1513 to his death in December 1521.
Born into the prominent political an ...
in 1513, it has been stated:
:Betting on the outcome of papal elections was quite common and was often handled by the banking houses in Rome which employed ''sensali'', or messengers, to scurry back and forth delevering betting slips. Bettors watched the odds closely.
Before and during the
papal conclave 1549–1550, many Roman bankers offered
betting spreads on the ''
papabili
''Papabile'' (, also , ; ; or "able to be pope") is an unofficial Italian term first coined by Vaticanologists and now used internationally in many languages to describe a Catholic man, in practice always a cardinal, who is thought a likel ...
'' (cardinals likely to be elected). According to the Venetian Enrico Dandolo, a witness to the conclave, "it is more than clear that the merchants are very well informed about the state of the poll, and that the cardinals' attendants in Conclave go partners with them in wagers, which thus causes many tens of thousands of crowns to change hands". Dandolo describes an early example of
insider trading.
[Baumgartner, 1985, p. 305.] Cardinal del Monte (who was eventually elected Julius III) had eventually started out as the favorite at 5-1, trailed by
Salviati,
Ridolfi, and
Pole
Pole may refer to:
Astronomy
*Celestial pole, the projection of the planet Earth's axis of rotation onto the celestial sphere; also applies to the axis of rotation of other planets
*Pole star, a visible star that is approximately aligned with the ...
, but Pole was the favorite three days later at 4-1.
[Baumgartner, 1985, p. 306.] By December 5, Pole's odds had shortened to 100-95.
With the arrival of four additional French cardinals on December 11, Pole's odds drifted to 5-2.
[Baumgartner, 1985, p. 308.] On January 22, the odds quoted against the conclave finishing during January were 10-9, against February: 2-1, against March: 5-1, and never: 10-1.
[Baumgartner, 1985, p. 310.]
In March 1591,
Pope Gregory XIV imposed a penalty of
excommunication
Excommunication is an institutional act of religious censure used to end or at least regulate the communion of a member of a congregation with other members of the religious institution who are in normal communion with each other. The purpose ...
against any who wagered on the outcome or length of papal elections (as well as the creation of cardinals),
and banned the practice in the
Papal States
The Papal States ( ; it, Stato Pontificio, ), officially the State of the Church ( it, Stato della Chiesa, ; la, Status Ecclesiasticus;), were a series of territories in the Italian Peninsula under the direct sovereign rule of the pope fro ...
. The canon was abrogated (along with the rest of existing
canon law
Canon law (from grc, κανών, , a 'straight measuring rod, ruler') is a set of ordinances and regulations made by ecclesiastical authority (church leadership) for the government of a Christian organization or church and its members. It is th ...
) by
Pope Benedict XV
Pope Benedict XV (Latin: ''Benedictus XV''; it, Benedetto XV), born Giacomo Paolo Giovanni Battista della Chiesa, name=, group= (; 21 November 185422 January 1922), was head of the Catholic Church from 1914 until his death in January 1922. His ...
's reforms
19th century
According to a ''New York Times'' article following the
papal conclave, 1878: "The Italians are all superstitious, and all fond of the lottery. Every great event leads to speculation in numbers. The deaths and advents of the Popes has always given rise to an excessive amount of gambling in the lottery, and today the people of Italy are in a state of excitement that is indescribable. Figures are picked out which have some relation with the life or death of Pius IX. Every day large sums are paid for tickets in the lottery about to be drawn."
20th century
Gambling over the outcomes of the
papal conclave, 1903
The 1903 papal conclave followed the death of Pope Leo XIII after a reign of 25 years. Some 62 cardinals participated in the balloting. Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria asserted the right claimed by certain Catholic rulers to veto a candidate for ...
and
papal conclave, 1922
The 1922 papal conclave was held following Pope Benedict XV's death from pneumonia on 22 January 1922 after a reign of eight years. 53 of the 60 cardinals assembled in the Sistine Chapel eleven days later on 2 February to elect his successor. The ...
was covered in several newspapers.
With the 1903 conclave, the Italian government-run lottery offered odds on the pope's death and, had
Pope Leo XIII
Pope Leo XIII ( it, Leone XIII; born Vincenzo Gioacchino Raffaele Luigi Pecci; 2 March 1810 – 20 July 1903) was the head of the Catholic Church from 20 February 1878 to his death in July 1903. Living until the age of 93, he was the second-old ...
died a week earlier, the government would have lost over $1,000,000.
There was extensive betting in Britain over the elections of
Pope John Paul I
Pope John Paul I ( la, Ioannes Paulus I}; it, Giovanni Paolo I; born Albino Luciani ; 17 October 1912 – 28 September 1978) was head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City from 26 August 1978 to his death 33 days later. Hi ...
and
Pope John Paul II
Pope John Paul II ( la, Ioannes Paulus II; it, Giovanni Paolo II; pl, Jan Paweł II; born Karol Józef Wojtyła ; 18 May 19202 April 2005) was the head of the Catholic Church and sovereign of the Vatican City State from 1978 until his ...
, and the English Catholic primate, the
Archbishop of Westminster felt it necessary to forbid participation by Catholics.
21st century
Paddy Power
Paddy Power is an Irish gambling company founded in 1988. Its product offering includes sports betting, online casino, online poker, and online bingo. The business is split into two divisions, UK Ireland (UKI) and International. UKI operations ...
,
Ireland's largest bookmaker, started taking bets on the successor of Pope John Paul II five years before the pontiff's death.
[Peter Gould. 2005, April 22.]
Bets open on Benedict's successor
. BBC News. British bookmakers such as
Pinnacle Sports
Pinnacle (formerly known as Pinnacle Sports) is an online gaming website that was founded in 1998. Since its inception, Pinnacle has become a medium-sized, fully licensed, online sportsbook. Pinnacle Sports rebranded to Pinnacle on June 1, 2016 ...
and
William Hill plc
William Hill is a British gambling company founded in 1934. Its product offering includes sports betting, online casino, online poker, and online bingo. The business is split into two divisions, UK and International. UK operations are conduct ...
also offered such bets, with significantly different odds. Cardinal Ratzinger, the eventual choice of the
papal conclave, 2005
The 2005 papal conclave was convened to elect a new pope following the death of Pope John Paul II on 2 April 2005. After his death, the cardinals of the Catholic Church who were in Rome met and set a date for the beginning of the conclave to el ...
as
Pope Benedict XVI
Pope Benedict XVI ( la, Benedictus XVI; it, Benedetto XVI; german: link=no, Benedikt XVI.; born Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger, , on 16 April 1927) is a retired prelate of the Catholic church who served as the head of the Church and the soverei ...
, started out with 12-1 odds, but was a 3-1 favorite at the time of the conclave.
Mr. Power, the proprietor of Paddy Power, was evicted from
St. Peter's Square
Saint Peter's Square ( la, Forum Sancti Petri, it, Piazza San Pietro ,) is a large plaza located directly in front of St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City, the papal enclave inside Rome, directly west of the neighborhood ( rione) of Borgo. B ...
by security staff before the start of the 2005 conclave for displaying his betting prices,
by what he claims were undercover police officers. Paddy Power alone took over $382,000 in bets on the conclave, making it—according to Mr. Power—"the biggest non-sports betting market of all time".
With Pope Benedict XVI's resignation on February 28, 2013, Paddy Power's website for
Papal conclave, 2013
The 2013 papal conclave was convened to elect a pope to succeed Pope Benedict XVI following his resignation on 28 February 2013. After the 115 participating cardinal-electors gathered, they set 12 March 2013 as the beginning of the conclave. On ...
lists the current successors to Pope Benedict XVI. On March 13, 2013, Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected
Pope Francis
Pope Francis ( la, Franciscus; it, Francesco; es, link=, Francisco; born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 17 December 1936) is the head of the Catholic Church. He has been the bishop of Rome and sovereign of the Vatican City State since 13 March 2013. ...
. Prior to Pope Francis' election, the odds were 25-to-1 of Bergoglio becoming pope, according to betting company William Hill Plc. Paddy Power's website also posted 25-to-1 odds shortly before
Pope Francis
Pope Francis ( la, Franciscus; it, Francesco; es, link=, Francisco; born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 17 December 1936) is the head of the Catholic Church. He has been the bishop of Rome and sovereign of the Vatican City State since 13 March 2013. ...
' election.
Gambling on
Papal conclaves is largely internet based, as most conventional sport books, such as those in
Las Vegas
Las Vegas (; Spanish for "The Meadows"), often known simply as Vegas, is the 25th-most populous city in the United States, the most populous city in the state of Nevada, and the county seat of Clark County. The city anchors the Las Vegas ...
, do not accept bets on election outcomes. A handicapper for
Bally's and
Paris Las Vegas
Paris Las Vegas is a casino hotel on the Las Vegas Strip in Paradise, Nevada. It is owned and operated by Caesars Entertainment and has a 95,263 square-foot casino with over 1,700 slot machines.
The theme is the city of Paris; it includes a hal ...
said the casinos refused to accept bets on the election because of "taste" concerns. The practice is illegal in the
United States
The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territori ...
under the
Federal Wire Act of 1961.
Wagering on the Papal conclaves may no longer be considered illegal in the
United States
The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territori ...
.
On September 20, 2011, the
United States Justice Department
The United States Department of Justice (DOJ), also known as the Justice Department, is a federal executive department of the United States government tasked with the enforcement of federal law and administration of justice in the United State ...
reversed its opinion that all forms of internet gambling are in violation of the Federal Wire Act.
The ruling states that the prohibition in the Wire Act of using interstate communications for gambling applies only to betting on a "sporting event or contest." Intrastate betting on the papal conclave may now be legal.
However, interstate policy has yet to be determined.
Gregory XIV's bull of excommunication as a penalty for such wagers was never specifically rescinded, but was abrogated along with all canon law provisions associated with the Ius Decretalium in 1918.
Notes
References
*Baumgartner, Frederic J. 1985. "Henry II and the Papal Conclave of 1549." ''Sixteenth Century Journal''. 16, 3: 301–314.
*Baumgartner, Frederic J. 2003. ''Behind Locked Doors: A History of Papal Elections''. New York: Palgrave.
*Clark, Geoffrey Wilson; ''Betting on lives: the culture of life insurance in England, 1695-1775'', Manchester University Press ND, 1999, ,
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